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THE Colin Campbell Thread (merged)

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Colin Campbell's Uncanny Prediction Of Financial Collaps

Postby Koyaanisqatsi » Fri 12 Dec 2008, 01:11:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hen I spoke to Colin Campbell (I'm one of the red lizards, herrings I mean) he told me that he thought the stock markets would crash. Not because of the credit crisis (which hadn't broken out yet, this was sometime in Mars or April 2007) but because he thought we would eventually have an oil crisis which would cause an economic crisis,
That pretty much settles it, he did believe it would happen because of PO.

This is like calling a doctor incompetent because he/she tells a patient that they will die of cancer and then they get hit by a car.
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Re: Colin Campbell's Uncanny Prediction Of Financial Collaps

Postby outcast » Fri 12 Dec 2008, 04:58:48

So now it doesn't matter? Nice....... :razz:
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Re: Colin Campbell's Uncanny Prediction Of Financial Collaps

Postby Starvid » Sat 13 Dec 2008, 07:35:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hen I spoke to Colin Campbell (I'm one of the red lizards, herrings I mean) he told me that he thought the stock markets would crash. Not because of the credit crisis (which hadn't broken out yet, this was sometime in Mars or April 2007) but because he thought we would eventually have an oil crisis which would cause an economic crisis,
That pretty much settles it, he did believe it would happen because of PO.

Now, I'm not saying he didn't think we would have a credit crisis, I'm just saying he didn't say anything about it to me. He might or might not have thought that. We only chatted for maybe half an hour.
Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
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Re: Colin Campbell's Uncanny Prediction Of Financial Collaps

Postby Koyaanisqatsi » Sat 13 Dec 2008, 13:34:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', 'S')o now it doesn't matter? Nice....... :razz:


Of course it matters. Doctor says: you have cancer and one year to live. Six month later you are hit by a car and land in the hospital. It's not the doctor's fault they didn't predict you'd be hit by a car. And furthermore, you still have cancer, so if you do happen to recover from the accident, you're still going to die of cancer.

And by the way, if the doctor predicts that you are going to die in 12 months and it happens to be 13, does that really make the doctor a quack?
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Re: Colin Campbell's Uncanny Prediction Of Financial Collaps

Postby outcast » Sun 14 Dec 2008, 11:30:10

No, it's more like the doctor saying you have a bad case of the flu (which could turn into pneumonia if left untreated) but instead you discover you have a massive malignant tumor.
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Re: Colin Campbell's Uncanny Prediction Of Financial Collaps

Postby Koyaanisqatsi » Sun 14 Dec 2008, 13:42:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', 'N')o, it's more like the doctor saying you have a bad case of the flu (which could turn into pneumonia if left untreated) but instead you discover you have a massive malignant tumor.


Ahhh, you think Peak Oil is the flu! I knew this wasn't about Campbell really. Well, there are 10,000 pages on this forum that speak to that issue.

Anyway, I don't agree about the tumor analogy. Campbell is a geologist; it's not his business to analyze credit derivative swaps and so on. Moreover, the effects of Peak Oil will be much worse than this economic collapse. Financial meltdown you can survive, eventually. But Peak Oil means the end to all economic growth - there will be no light at the end of the tunnel.

So, 1) Peak oil worse than flu, and 2) economic crunch not like tumor.

But I have a feeling that I'm not going to be able to convince you of this.
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Re: Colin Campbell's Uncanny Prediction Of Financial Collaps

Postby outcast » Sun 14 Dec 2008, 22:27:33

No, I'm pointing out a clear flaw in your analogy.
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Re: Colin Campbell's Uncanny Prediction Of Financial Collaps

Postby Koyaanisqatsi » Tue 16 Dec 2008, 04:08:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', 'N')o, I'm pointing out a clear flaw in your analogy.


You have a habit of providing facile responses to detailed posts. Exactly what is the flaw in my analogy?
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Re: Colin Campbell's Uncanny Prediction Of Financial Collaps

Postby outcast » Tue 16 Dec 2008, 04:17:29

Cheap credit & debt was a cancer that was eating away at our financial system and our economy, it was tumor that has been growing and growing. The cancerous mass, that tumor made our economy look much bigger than it really was. Now that the tumor has been removed, we are seeing our economy for what it really was.

According to your analogy the credit crisis just suddenly happened without warning, when it reality it had been building for all these years , right under the nose of your doctor.
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Re: Colin Campbell's Uncanny Prediction Of Financial Collaps

Postby Koyaanisqatsi » Tue 16 Dec 2008, 04:25:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', 'C')heap credit & debt was a cancer that was eating away at our financial system and our economy, it was tumor that has been growing and growing. The cancerous mass, that tumor made our economy look much bigger than it really was. Now that the tumor has been removed, we are seeing our economy for what it really was.

According to your analogy the credit crisis just suddenly happened without warning, when it reality it had been building for all these years , right under the nose of your doctor.


No, a geologist isn't trained to understand derivative swaps and so on, just like a doctor isn't trained to predict car accidents. Thus a geologist can be surprised by events he wasn't even trying to predict, just as a doctor can be surprised by a car accident. You are implying that Campbell should have foreseen the magnitude of what is happening in the financial markets. I disagree - he never claimed to predict all possible collapse scenarios. His point was, all other things being equal, Peak Oil will bring about a collapse, not that Peak Oil is the only thing that could bring about a collapse.
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Re: Colin Campbell's Uncanny Prediction Of Financial Collaps

Postby sameu » Wed 17 Dec 2008, 08:28:58

if oil production is flat for 4 years, this means no real economic growth for four years
which means creating more and more debt, so you can consume more and grow the economy; but it's faken and now it's collapsing
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Re: Colin Campbell's Uncanny Prediction Of Financial Collaps

Postby Starvid » Wed 17 Dec 2008, 10:14:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sameu', 'i')f oil production is flat for 4 years, this means no real economic growth for four years
which means creating more and more debt, so you can consume more and grow the economy; but it's faken and now it's collapsing
Only if oil consumption and economic activity are linked on a 1:1 basis, which they obviously aren't. You're making it far to easy for yourself.
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Re: THE Colin Campbell Thread (merged)

Postby John_A » Sun 01 Dec 2013, 19:29:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NevadaGhosts', '[')b]Colin Campbell talks about the coming Great Depression
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he scene is set for the Second Great Depression, but the conservatism and outdated mindset of institutional investors, together with the momentum of the massive flows of institutional money they are required to place, may help to diminish the sense of panic that a vision of reality might impose. On the other hand, the very momentum of the flow may cause a greater deluge when the foundations of the dam finally crumble. It is a situation without precedent.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he survivors, whose numbers may not greatly exceed those of the pre-oil age, may find silver linings as they rediscover rural living, regionalism, diversity and local markets, coming to live in better harmony with themselves, each other, and the environment in which Nature has ordained them to live. But the transition will be a time of great tension, including international tension as consumers vie for access to dwindling supplies, and as city life becomes unsustainable.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')n present estimates, the overall peak of all categories of oil arrives in 2006, with that of oil and gas combined coming about two years later.

http://www.energybulletin.net/5944.html

2006 is next year. So soon...


Some of these old threads really have the FEEL of the fear meme being generated at the time, don't they?

Great Depression! 2006! Peak oil as well!! The survivors!!

Must have been back when Colin was in his anti-immigration phase, not liking exactly who (or the color) of those coming into the country, and he was even putting some anti-Zionist ramblings in his books if I recall correctly.

The good old days!!
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Re: THE Colin Campbell Thread (merged)

Postby Plantagenet » Sun 01 Dec 2013, 19:45:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('John_A', '[')b]Colin Campbell talks about the coming Great Depression
The scene is set for the Second Great Depression
On present estimates, [b]the overall peak of all categories of oil arrives in 2006, with that of oil and gas combined coming about two years later.


Some of these old threads really have the FEEL of the fear meme being generated at the time, don't they?

Great Depression! 2006! Peak oil as well!!


Great Recession! 2007! Peak Conventional oil as well!!

Looks like Colin Campbell got it just about right.

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Good job, Dr. Campbell.
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Re: THE Colin Campbell Thread (merged)

Postby Revi » Mon 02 Dec 2013, 11:24:34

He wrote a very interesting book about oil based on his experience in discovery, and made some predictions which turned out to be mostly true. The only thing he wasn't anticipating was fracking and how it has changed things.
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Re: THE Colin Campbell Thread (merged)

Postby John_A » Mon 02 Dec 2013, 15:23:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')Looks like Colin Campbell got it just about right.


His prediction of about 35 million barrels a day of conventional oil production in 2013? Whats a few billion barrels each and every year between friends! :lol: :lol:
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Re: THE Colin Campbell Thread (merged)

Postby John_A » Mon 02 Dec 2013, 15:33:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'H')e wrote a very interesting book about oil based on his experience in discovery, and made some predictions which turned out to be mostly true.


35 million barrels a day of production in 2013? You want to call that "true"? How about your employer misses the amount supposed to be in your paycheck by more than 50% on the low side, you think that is "true" enough that you wouldn't rush forth to correct.. the ERROR?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', '
') The only thing he wasn't anticipating was fracking and how it has changed things.


You mean when he was 18 years old, and fracking had just started in the States, he didn't notice...by the time he had RETIRED? How blind do you have to be to make THAT mistake? But those other things he missed maybe they weren't as important? Like underestimating future discoveries? For DECADES. Underestimating field growth by claiming it didn't exist. And then it turns out...it did. And then there were bad estimates of the North Sea production...oops...him being a local you would have thought he would have gotten AT LEAST that one right.

Or perhaps you mean "got it right" when he missed entire inflection points? Here is a good one...looks pretty good to me!! Notice the tendency for all decline, all the time? I use that phrase alot nowadays because that is the way of the peak decline fitter. Take a trend, any trend...don't actually analyze the geology, economics or engineering the way the bottom up folks do, and just fit a line, the only requirement being...it go DOWN. Declare victory, do it the next data set. And then after a decade goes by, hope people are gullible enough to not go back and check how well your past predictions went.

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Re: THE Colin Campbell Thread (merged)

Postby Plantagenet » Mon 02 Dec 2013, 15:55:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('John_A', 'w')hen he was 18 years old, and fracking had just started in the States..


Modern slickwater fracking was only developed in the late 90s in Texas. SInce its invention it has revolutionized the oil biz.

Your attempt to pretend that the technology and application of fracking done in 1960 is identical to the slickwater fracking done today is silly---the technology has changed---just like every technology has improved over the last 50 years.

Your attempt to bash Colin Campbell for not forseeing the importance of fracking oil shales in 1960 when NO ONE IN 1960 foresaw the widespread appliction of slickwater fracking just isn't logical :roll:
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Re: THE Colin Campbell Thread (merged)

Postby John_A » Mon 02 Dec 2013, 20:13:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('John_A', 'w')hen he was 18 years old, and fracking had just started in the States..


Modern slickwater fracking was only developed in the late 90s in Texas. SInce its invention it has revolutionized the oil biz.


Wrong. But feel free to buy into the hype. Hell, Rockman himself has already refuted this ith his own experience in the late 70's, no reason for me to even offer up the permit numbers and engineers name who was sitting in the frac van in the early 80's, pumping slickwater fracks away into Devonian shales in Ohio to make the same point.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')Your attempt to pretend that the technology and application of fracking done in 1960 is identical to the slickwater fracking done today is silly---the technology has changed---just like every technology has improved over the last 50 years.


So now they aren't pumping fluid under pressure to first break down the rock, then pumping the fluid holding the proppant? They aren't using swellable packers, or normal hook-wall packers to separate the stages? Letting them sand off? Setting bridge plugs? Amazing....all this new technology that looks...awful....similar...to multistage frack jobs in vertical shale wells...long...ago.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')Your attempt to bash Colin Campbell for not forseeing the importance of fracking oil shales in 1960 when NO ONE IN 1960 foresaw the widespread appliction of slickwater fracking just isn't logical :roll:


Now you've got me interested in whether or not I can find a completion report doing slick water work back in the 60's?

And just because Colin Campbell doesn't understand the basic economic principle of changes in technology moving the goal posts of the answer, he should have read Hubbert's work on the topic...it was written in 1967 or so.

Perhaps he didn't have the time to read how to do this, what with the sexual revolution going on right about then? :lol:
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Re: THE Colin Campbell Thread (merged)

Postby Plantagenet » Mon 02 Dec 2013, 21:57:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('John_A', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')Modern slickwater fracking was only developed in the late 90s in Texas.

Wrong.


No, you're wrong.

Here's the story: “fracking,” a now nearly 70-year-old process to pump water, sand, and additives into tight reservoirs to break up the rock and allow hydrocarbons to flow. Mitchell’s ultimate breakthrough, in 1998, came from changing the recipe of those additives. The cause: one of the company’s vendors accidentally applied the wrong mix. The oil business is science. But, as Zuckerman documents well, it’s also a lot of trial and error and a bit of luck.

Mitchell’s company’s drilling formula made shale gas wells profitable


Get it now? :roll:
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