by MC2 » Sun 24 Jun 2007, 11:46:29
Thanks to Loopy for posting the link. I listened to the whole show this morning; the AM station locally doesn't run AB until 1AM, too late.
Several really interesting things came out of the show for me. First, I'm not sure why AB and MS both so quickly dismissed the idea of Americans using bikes. I'm actually thinking of refurbishing my old ones (I've got a great old Schwinn 3-speed from the early seventies) for use locally. Visiting Beijing on business, even with all the increase in cars, one sees there are still legions of Chinese on their bikes, all seemingly using the same slow measured pace on their pedals.
What I do see changing is the number of people who go to their jobs, at all. It's simple insanity to move the large numbers of people in and out of city centers in the morning and evening. The model that comes to mind is Washington D.C., where I lived and worked for several years. Most of the jobs there simply don't require the person to physically be in any given space very often. Tele-commuting, the virtual office, etc., should get a huge boost from the peak. (Arguably, most of those jobs could just be eliminated, with savings for all!) And, with fewer desk jockeys showing up, the infrastructure load that supports their commuting also drops. People who really need to be somewhere to work will still do so, but that should really drop way back from the time clock industrial model we've kept as we have transited to a post-industrial world. I've mostly tele-commuted since 1995, and it's hard to imagine any other way for me, now.
But, the point MS and AB made about so many jobs not existing anymore at all is well taken. It's clear we're going to move into some totally different economic model for what constitutes gainful employment, post-peak. Much as I dislike welfare statism, I suspect something like that will briefly flourish here, just before the total collapse. There simply won't be a need for most people to "go to work," when the costs to occupy space somewhere outweigh the nominal rewards.
