[simontay78]

According to My West Texas
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he International Energy Agency released its monthly Oil Market Report last week. According to the report, the agency expects global demand to increase by +1.8 percent in 2007.

The adviser group did make some weather related demand changes in Europe and the Pacific, but those downward revisions were offset by strong demand in United States as well as upward revisions for the Former Soviet Union, India, and China.

On the supply side, world output decreased in February. OPEC supplied 125,000 barrels per day less than in January. However, the OPEC-10's production cuts were partially offset by increased production coming from Angola and Iraq. The IEA estimates suggest the OPEC-10 are about 73 percent compliant with their Abuja cut.

The IEA report says the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development inventories decreased 8.6 million barrels in January. The data for February suggests stock piles may have fallen 65.7 million barrels in the OECD nations. This suggests industrialized countries are heading towards their largest decline in reserves (for the first quarter) in 10 years. The data is bullish on numerous fronts.

In short, demand is up and supply is down.

[steam_cannon]

That's sounds like the IEA's way of saying Peak Oil with out using such dirty words...

[Newsseeker]

This will definitely be an interesting summer but I wonder what the summer of 2010 will be like. I do that and cringe. When I start thinking about my life when I am 42 (2020) I cry myself to sleep at night. This definitely does look like a red flag and if I am not mistaken they have already warned OPEC but OPEC could have cared less and left the cuts in place.

[simontay78]

Do you think OPEC can boost supply even if they want to? It's easier to say they cut the oil production "on purpose" rather then the depletion of oil production is part of the reason why they HAD TO cut the production....

The final verdict ....suspicious...let's see if they can ramp up the production when the demands shoots above the supply figures!

[DantesPeak]

I find it most interesting that they say worldwide February production was down. Up until a few weeks ago, it was widely assumed that production was going up, and that total production increases in 2007 would be about 1.5 mbpd.

So we are not off to a very good start here in 2007, being that it has been verified that worldwide demand has been increasing about 2 mpbd so far this year (850,000 bod just from the US). Granted a recession or some other calamity could not demand down, but right now it appears that demand is exceeding supply. This excess demand is so far being met by inventory rundowns, which can not continue for very much longer.

Accelerating demand is soon to collide with the brick wall of stagnant supply.

[MonteQuest]

The annual World Energy Outlook is the leading source for medium to long-term energy market projections and analysis and has achieved widespread international recognition. It is the flagship publication of the International Energy Agency.

http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/

[Zardoz]

The IEA just posted the figure for world oil production in the first quarter of this year:



World Oil Supply

Okay, that's it. We're there. Time to cut the crap and call peak.

If that isn't the dreaded undulating plateau of the peak of global oil production, then what in the name of all that's holy is it?

God, I would love to be able to walk into Daniel Yergins' office with an 11 x 17 copy of that graphic, wave it in his face, and see how he'd try to explain it away.

[emersonbiggins]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dukey', 'l')et me get this straight
even though non opec oil has peaked
and opec oil seems to have peaked .. if i read all the latest reports correctly. Saudi arabia down half a million barrels per day etc

we somehow magically made it to 85.1 million barrels per day ?
Where is the extra oil coming from. The moon ?

[grink1tt3n]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '
')If that isn't the dreaded undulating plateau of the peak of global oil production, then what in the name of all that's holy is it?

[Twilight]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('grink1tt3n', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '
')If that isn't the dreaded undulating plateau of the peak of global oil production, then what in the name of all that's holy is it?

[PWALPOCO]

Just one observation , the Q42006 was revised down to 85.1 from 85.4 in the previous chart , then Q12007 was marked as 85.4.

Is it likely the Q12007 figure could also be revised down , and if so , by how much ?

I would say though that from the chart there is a subtle incline in production , not a decline but a few more figures for quarters nearer to 85.0 rather than 86.0 would certainly be more convincing that we are starting to max out.

We should be mindful however that OPEC did start to make cuts in output and production could be raised again assuming the "cuts" werent forced by geology.

Paul

[Armageddon]

I do not trust anybody's numbers. All numbers can be manipulated some way.

[Cyrus]

Denying it is getting harder and harder.

[kmann]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')enying it is getting harder and harder.

[joewp]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kmann', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')enying it is getting harder and harder.

[kmann]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', 'T')hat stuff isn't happening today.

[shortonoil]

kmann said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'J')ust looking at 9 quarters of world production data without looking at the big picture can easily lead to false conclusions. As I said, it's far from sufficient evidence.

[kmann]

Why is 18:1 the breaking point? When did we hit it? How did you calculate it?

[Newsseeker]

Given the previous poster's good points, I am going to have to agree that with demand soaring and a good economy there is little reason to have things taper off but they are. I vote peak.

[shortonoil]

kmann said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hy is 18:1 the breaking point? When did we hit it? How did you calculate it?