[AgentR]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kevincarter', 'P')lease anti doomer squad members, shade some light on this matter, so we can all sleep well.

[roccman]

"But... but.. but... wait a minute, weren't those the same guys that used to say that alternative oil sources would replace any reduction in conventional oil production and still make up for any increase in world consumption? "

Bwhahahahahahahhahahahahhahahahahahh!!!!

Let the fun begin!!!!

Hell ya - die off right around the corner. Word is out...panic will set in...confidence in "system" will blow away and us sheeple will get every oz of pain we have coming.

Clean slate baby!!!

Cheers!!!

[Twilight]

Higher than expected?

More like, in line with expectations, but we deliberately went against the grain and we're still going to use ourselves as the benchmark of sentiment.

Reality is breaking through.

[DantesPeak]

Not sure if this has been reported elsewhere today, but the IEA says Russia is peaking within three years:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')il Agency Warns Demand Creates 'Stark' Balance
By ADAM SMALLMAN
June 13, 2007

LONDON -- The International Energy Agency raised the prospect of a global oil crunch this year, citing a mix of higher-than-forecast demand, rising project delays and reluctance by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to ship more crude during the summer.

The energy-security watchdog for the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development also said in its monthly oil-market report that in the short term, output growth from non-OPEC producers would be lower than expected and that the gasoline-refining system in the U.S. was fragile. It added that in the medium term, output from the world's largest oil producer, Russia, would peak within three years.

"To us, the balance looks particularly stark at the moment," David Fyfe, the agency's supply expert, said.

Oil-supply growth from non-OPEC producers is set to fall this year below one million barrels a day, thanks to project delays, field exhaustion and maintenance programs.

[Graeme]

IEA expects oil prices to soar

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')orld oil prices will rise sharply in the second half of 2007 unless OPEC increases production, the International Energy Agency said yesterday, as some analysts predicted that crude could top $80 (U.S.) a barrel later this year.

In a report, the IEA raised its forecast for crude demand this year by some 200,000 barrels a day, and lowered its expectation of non-OPEC supplies by 100,000.

But that relief could be short lived. Francisco Blanch, a commodity analyst with Merrill Lynch & Co., said OPEC production is now at its lowest level in three years, after steep production cuts earlier this year. But he said demand will outstrip supply with the outset of the summer driving season, and global inventories will be drawn down rapidly.

"OPEC needs to ramp up production to meet the shortfall, and fast!," the analyst wrote in a report yesterday.

[evilgenius]

When they say that oil supplies will ramp up for two years they are probably talking about the development of off-shore West Africa. That, however, won't even start drilling until 2008. Nothing could be delivered from there, at best, until 2009. So, as it stands now whatever extra the world might get from WA will be offset by the tremendous decline rates in the world's mature fields. The only hope is a stop gap easy to both capitalize and exploit large field. There aren't any of those left.

Barring that, then conservation. Only the US doesn't like to conserve. They will go to war rather than conserve. I don't think war with Iran because really there isn't anything to gain by it and it opens up a whole can of worms with Russia. If they can get the heavy oil upgrading infrastructure in place they might choose Venezuela. The best possibility has to be economic war, though. They will simply drive borderline states into oblivion by outbidding whomever they can until the short term thing is done. Then after the few years of renewed supply they will do it again, sticking both friend and foe in the back next time.

[evilgenius]

I was thinking about this as I walked to the store today. I think conservation isn't so outlandish a thought as I first dismissed it as. If you reckon that the dollar will gain in strength because of rising interest rates an actual world wide price rise in oil remains hidden to those rich in dollars. It certainly wouldn't remain hidden to those that have trouble getting dollars. So, the third world and the poorest in the US will be cast off of the lifeboat first. The third world because they can't generate enough trade in a high dollar value environment to get enough dollars to buy enough oil. The poor in the US because interest rates of the height that I am imagining would so slow down the US economy that the poor simply couldn't afford to fill up the family truckster.

[roccman]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('evilgenius', 'I') was thinking about this as I walked to the store today. I think conservation isn't so outlandish a thought as I first dismissed it as. If you reckon that the dollar will gain in strength because of rising interest rates an actual world wide price rise in oil remains hidden to those rich in dollars. It certainly wouldn't remain hidden to those that have trouble getting dollars. So, the third world and the poorest in the US will be cast off of the lifeboat first.

[Twilight]

I second that it's the borderline middle class that will be hit hardest.

The poor already live off aid, off the black market, off random breaks from friends and those who have already experienced repossessions and utility cutoffs, off grid. Knocking on the door of a relative, having electricity cut off, knowing the local charities, to millions of Americans that's not new, it's what they were born into. For a while they'll be getting more of the same bad luck.

The real surprise awaits those who bought a better lifestyle on credit while possessing little more in the way of marketable skills and assets. Those who got an easy ride because years ago the banks said "Yes", they're the ones who have the most to lose. Which is everything, because they think they are an asset, but they are literally becoming a liability.

[KevO]

as if anyone needed reminding

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he Wall Street Journal reports today that world oil demand is growing twice as fast as last year.

The International Energy Agency, which monitors oil markets on behalf of industrialized nations, is forecasting average global oil demand of 86.1 million barrels a day this year, up 2 percent from last year. That is twice as fast as the 0.9% growth recorded in 2006, compared with 2005.

Demand is expected to accelerate further in the fourth quarter to 88 million barrels a day, an unprecedented quarterly volume and up 2.6 million barrels a day from the year-earlier period. In the second quarter, global oil demand already has risen at a 1.7% rate, more than double the 0.8% a year ago, according to forecasts and data compiled by the IEA.

[Tanada]

Do they happen to mention where this extra 2 mmbbl/d is suppossed to be coming from?

[shortonoil]

Tanada said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')o they happen to mention where this extra 2 mmbbl/d is suppossed to be coming from?

[Ayame]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')Where's the demand coming from? All over, but especially China.

[Cobra_Strike]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', 'D')o they happen to mention where this extra 2 mmbbl/d is suppossed to be coming from?

[JPL]

No s**t guys, Le Monde interviewed the IEA's chief economist this week & he's suddenly gone all doomer-ish (grin): Le Monde

Sorry it's all in French, but it translates in Google pretty well, here is a rough trans of the first few paragraphs:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]DISCUSSION WITH FATIH BIROL, ECONOMIC DIRECTOR OF STUDIES OF THE INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
Without the Iraqi black gold, the oil market will face a “wall” some-time between now and 2015
Le Monde.fr. In September 2005, in this paper, you launched a warning to the consumer countries of the black gold: “Get off oil”. Was it heard?
Fatih Birol. Each day, the oil market becomes more difficult, because the speed of growth and the concentration of production in a very small number of countries. Since 2005, the rise in the price of the barrel has confirmed this: the current price, near to 70 dollars, is an important signal for the large consumer nations.

But the economy accepted almost without difficulty this increase in the price per barrel?
You are right, the rich economy was OK. But the world does not stop with the rich countries. Africa is in great difficulty. They haven't got the credit to buy oil. For future generations, there are also serious issues. The energy costs and the in-debitedness in the United States, for example. But the United States and the European Union also tend to use oil much more efficiently, and it's the way they're doing it, is to reduce the growth in demand. Thus the consumer countries have reacted well.

Is this reaction enough to counter the dangers you predict?
The 'end of oil' is going up bit by bit in the agenda of the OECD countries. But it should be stressed that a large share of the increase comes from China and, to a lesser extent, from India. China has the moment 70 cars per thousand inhabitants, against 680 in Europe and 860 in the United States. If the Chinese want to catch up with a Western lifestyle, what's going to happen then?

Can production increase to meat such an increase in demand?
From here until 2015, the market and the oil industry will be put severely to the test. Starting now, and for the next five to ten years, oil production outside of OPEC will reach a maximum before starting to decline, for lack of sufficient reserves. Each day brings new evidence of this fact. At the same time the peak of Chinese economic expansion will take place.
The two events will coincide: the explosion of the growth of the Chinese call on the markets, and the fall in production outside of OPEC. Our oil system will be it able to answer this challenge, it is the question. ...

[eXpat]

Here there's another reference to this article link.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f Iraqi production does not rise exponentially by 2015, we have a very big problem, even if Saudi Arabia fulfills all its promises. The numbers are very simple, there's no need to be an expert

[frankthetank]

In the long run we are all fucked, it doesn't matter. Sure we can buy time, but natural gas, oil, coal, even nuclear doesn't look to save all 6 billion of us. Between now and 200 years from now i see huge dieoff. My grandchildren (if that happens) should have an interesting life

[Jack]

No! No! There's no evidence of peak! It isn't happening! I can't see any difference between 2005 and right now!

B..b..b..besides, new genetic engineering techniques have been created! Solar! Hydrogen! Wind! Ethanol from beans!

/* Sarcasm Mode: OFF */

Sound like any cornucopians you know?

[JPL]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', 'S')ound like any cornucopians you know?

[Judgie]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JPL', '
')In the later part of the article the issue of climate change, and the IEA's concerns about it, are discussed, and I can translate & post it if people want me to (hmmph).