[Zardoz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', '.')..to produce the needed US 20mb/d oil demand from the tar sands...would require 365 1000 megawatt reactors (your average large reactor) running 24-7...

[shortonoil]

.

Zardoz said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')ood Lord.

And CBS, in their "60 Minutes" feature last spring, had the nerve to imply that the tar sands were going to save us.

[seldom_seen]

http://www.iea.org/textbase/nppdf/free/ ... 0_2003.pdf

Has anyone taken the time to read this? Some of it sounds like the plot line for the next Road Warrior movie...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he Barbarisation scenarios outline a future of deterioration of the social, economic and moral structures of civilisation as markets and policy reforms become incapable of coping with emerging problems. Its Breakdown variant features uncontrollable conflict, institutional disintegration and economic collapse. The Fortress world scenario is characterised by an authoritarian response to the threat of breakdown, by which the rich elite tries to protect itself and its privileges by controlling and repressing an impoverished majority.

[Ayame]

It's taken from the GSG scenarios http://www.gsg.org/scenario_descriptions.html

There are three categories of scenarios:

Conventional world
Barbarization
Great Transitions

To me the Conventional Worlds scenarios don't seem to be shaping up (market forces will solve problem haha! or government will make sustainability a strategic priority).

Great Transitions won't happen with the US, China and India not giving a damn about the enivronment or eco-communalism.

Guess that leaves Barbarization.

[Zardoz]

The IEA just updated their global oil production chart, showing a new high of 85.7 million barrels a day for the third quarter of 2006.

World Oil Supply



That's a fair increase over a year ago. So how about it? Are we on the plateau or are we still climbing, just not like we had been? Can we all go out and get new Escalades and Navigators, or should we hold off for just a bit yet?

[Micki]

Does anyone know how reliable the IEA figures are?
i.e. is there controvery over the figures (talking about actual extraction, not the future predictions)? Have they ever been proven wrong?
How do they get these figures?
I like to remember that for some countries like SA, they have to count tankers and assume they are all full of the good stuff.

Not trying to put a "conspiracy twist" on this, just curious to if the figures can be taken at face value.

[BrazilianPO]

I see that as a plateau. On a yearly basis, the increase was 1.3mb/d, or less than 2%. This number is still behind the consumption increase, which this year will be around 2.5%. If this goes on, eventually consumption will overcome production and that is what really matters at the end. If we start to increase production at a higher pace, then I would be more comfortable.

[venky]

An interesting article today was posted at the oil drum today by Rembrandt Koppellar "Peak Oil - Seperating facts from fiction". With decline rates of approximately 4% (might be a bit conservative); he sees supply continuing to meet demand for low and moderate growth scenario's up till 2010. It is interesting that all supply forecast models including the pessimistic one by Skrebowski agree on this. The fact that supply has gone up in the third quater; still might seem like we are on a plateau but I would say that the increase is significant. Infact coupled with the relative decrease in geopolitical tensions and mild hurricane activity this season might explain the very significant decline in prices that have puzzled us all.

More interesting I found was this post in reply by Fredd Hutter. His website is www.trendlines.ca

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'R')embrandt, Chris & Colin all engage in bottom up analysis. Their methodology lends itself to inherent upward revisions due to the lack of medium and long term production announcements by the oilco's. Most announcements are 3-7 yr timelines. As these companies see refinery enhancements in the 2012-2017 year time frame, imenent announcement of new and/or expanded projects will be forthcoming and with those, the annuan revisions to the above three models.

This has been the background to the merging of our twelve models over the past seasons. There is no evidence that a seachange is ahead in the next decade. The merging will continue and continued revisions in URR imply a Peak in the 2020-2030 era at earliest (subj to refinery capacity expansion) based on the history and magnitude of upward revisions by our conservative Models in the past three years ...

[venky]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Micki', 'D')oes anyone know how reliable the IEA figures are?
i.e. is there controvery over the figures (talking about actual extraction, not the future predictions)? Have they ever been proven wrong?
How do they get these figures?
I like to remember that for some countries like SA, they have to count tankers and assume they are all full of the good stuff.

Not trying to put a "conspiracy twist" on this, just curious to if the figures can be taken at face value.

[IslandCrow]

It was pointed out to me (on another thread) the IEA statistics for oil supply includes bio-fuels. There is one line in the monthly report that lists "Other biofuels" as 0,2 million barrels a day. The foot note states the "Other" means other than production in Brazil and USA. I presume from lack of further reference that biofeul productions on both those countries are added in with production of mineral oils.

So the figures IEA produce are higher than just for fossil fuel oil. However, as the bio-fuels are still a small part in overall production, I would assume that the general shape of the graph reflects well the extraction rate for oil.

In my non-scientific way I would say that a rapid slowing down in increase in production is a good indication of a plateau being reached (allowing for a slightly rounded bump at the top), but this is not proof of it. Like others have said...we will have to wait and see.

[jato]

The EIA says oil production has declined 0.71 Mb/d since 2 quarter 2005:

EIA-2nd quarter 2006- 83.98 MBPD average?

I don't trust IEA numbers since they count biofuels & non fossil fuel liquids.

[miraculix]

How about this in order to correlate EIA and IEA data:

EIA computes a decline in crude production

IEA states increase in production including biofuels

The announced increase in production is less than the increase of past years, despite the backdrop of tight markets and a continuation of solid increases on the demand side.

Thus, would it not be fair to say, that the additional oil made available through biofuel production can not offset the decline in conventional crude oil?
Therefore, it being prima facia evidence of the well touted peak oil scenario?

[Starvid]

No plateau. Production (all liquids) will peak at 90-95 mbpd in 2010-2015. Probably closer to 90 than 95 and 2010 than 2015 though.

[sch_peakoiler]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ElijahJones', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', 'N')o plateau. Production (all liquids) will peak at 90-95 mbpd in 2010-2015. Probably closer to 90 than 95 and 2010 than 2015 though.

[coyote]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sch_peakoiler', 'I') personally do not see anything very wrong with Starvid's prediction. A prediction as many others. Of course it does not go along with doomer theories and on this forum will be rather "unwelcome"

[IslandCrow]

I have just looked up the latest ASPO newsletter (here) and their chart has a peak for oil and gas at 2010. Although by that time 'conventional oil' would be in serious decline, but till then that decline would be more than offset by increases in deep water oil for example. Part of arguements about when we peak depend on what is included in the figures.

As for plateau vs sharp peak, I guess looking back at thisafter some time it will seem a sharp peak, but while we are living in it it will seem a long time and so seem like a plateau for us who are in the middle of it.

For a basis of personal planning I tend to use the ASPO figures to give a time frame. I realise that their estimates in the past have been on the pessimistic side, so I hope (but am not really planning on) a year or too more.

[sch_peakoiler]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('coyote', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sch_peakoiler', 'I') personally do not see anything very wrong with Starvid's prediction. A prediction as many others. Of course it does not go along with doomer theories and on this forum will be rather "unwelcome"

[emailking]

I understand why tar sands and the like aren't considered conventional oil. But why isn't deepwater oil considered conventional? Is it automatically non-light sweet or something?

[Starvid]

No, but it's completely new. Because of great leaps in technology we have what is in effect an entirely new oil province. As Hubbert linearization relies on reserve estimates to predict the peak they become a little fucked up when reserves suddenly increase. It's like we suddenly managed to find a big new unexpected oil province.

To keep the old forecasts correct we ignore deep and ultra deep, calling it unconventional. Instead we put the new category on top of the old graph and call the new graph "all liquids".