[Geko45]

And for comparison sake here is the monthly data from the EIA with my own projection overlaid.

[Armageddon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ElijahJones', 'I') think it's very hard to say at this point. There are still some saying that new sources are coming on line to the tune of a few million extra barrels in the next five years. I think we can safely say that five more years will tell the tale. I don't expect truth from them at all. They have every incentive in the world to use every Enron accounting trick in the book to make it seem like production is keeping pace. It's going to be quite a jolt though at some point. A world wide recession must set in, since demand cannot keep growing beyond supply for vary long. The first phas willbe skyrocketing prices. The second phase will be a decrease in demand and production of things like cars and tractors etc. The third pahse well... Economists are in a pinch. If basic economic theory is correct then no alternatives will be cost effective at prices that avoid recession and eventually a global depression. So long and thanks for all the fish!

[whereagles]

Zardoz, you want me to tell you? Fine, I'll tell you

First off, as a mathematician (physicist actually..), I must warn you that 6 samples cannot give reliable statistics. That being said, what I see here is..

1) Demand oscillating in a regular pattern (less in spring, more in winter) while climbing in a steady line at the same time.

2) Supply roughly constant.

Extrapolating the picture of supply/demand, we can expect another 1-2 years before supply cannot meet the pace anymore and shortages start to kick in.

I guess my analysis puts me in the "doomer" camp, but bear in mind 6 points is *really* too little for predicting anything with confidence. Especially in a highly non-linear system as this one.. lol

[nth]

Who said non opec peaked?
Non opec is still supposed to increase.
Non Saudi Arabia is supposed to increase.
Saudi Arabia is supposed to be in a plateau until 2009 or so after before they get enough drilling to start increasing production.

[Dreamtwister]

Got any data on projected supply through 2007?

[garyp]

The originating report seems to suggest the growth in supply being driven by non-OPEC sources. "60% from the FSU and Africa, 30% from the americas". Its put down to "new oilfields and an assumed rebound after severe 2005/2006 outages". Also, strangely, the north sea is supposed to see a "temporary respite in 2007".

In short, its a case of everything coming up roses.

Generally Murphy has something to say about that.

[Dreamtwister]

What I'd *really* like to see is a breakdown of oils held in the SPR by it's specific gravity over the last couple of years.

[nth]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dreamtwister', 'G')ot any data on projected supply through 2007?

[Dreamtwister]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', 'Y')ou look like you been here for awhile.
Lots of lists by different people.
chris skrebowski is my favorite.

[nth]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dreamtwister', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', 'Y')ou look like you been here for awhile.
Lots of lists by different people.
chris skrebowski is my favorite.

[Dreamtwister]

I don't know why you are getting all bent out of shape, I was just hoping someone had world production projections for 2007. Right now, the only figure I'm working off of is pup55's "best case" from June 16 here. Because right now, my projection using that figure doesn't look very promising:
Chart (large)

[truecougarblue]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ElijahJones', 'H')as anyone done this already?

[truecougarblue]

As my Calculus professor once said, "slope is everything".

When I decided to look at this I expected something a bit more dramatic, but even so as a chart watcher I can immediately see where this correlation is headed.

[ohanian]

[truecougarblue]

So sorry, got distracted by actual work. See my PM reply.