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THE US Economy Thread (merged)

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Growing US Deficit - Good?

Unread postby o2ny » Mon 20 Nov 2006, 22:41:35

Does anyone know what Vice President Bush called this in 1980? Anyone? Something-d-o-o economics. "Voodoo" economics.
"If you're always looking for the invisible hand to guide you, you will find that the invisible hand often gives you the invisible finger." - some guy on CNBC
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Re: Growing US Deficit - Good?

Unread postby mmasters » Tue 21 Nov 2006, 00:55:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lee', 'O')ur money system is a faith based system.

This is a useless statement. In other words, money is based on legal enforcement.Well, everything about society is based on legal enforcement. Society, itself, could be described as 'faith based.' We follow laws because we believe they will be enforced. We could have no money at all, a barter system, and it would still be 'faith-based'. Supose you promised to give some guy 10 horses for the service of paving your driveway. He paves your driveway first believing that he will get the 10 horses in the end because he believes that the contract will be enforced by society a.k.a. by fiat.
The 'fiat money' rant is stupid. It really is.[/quote]
Easy bud, that just didn't come out right at the time, I meant infinite growth instead of money system. All money systems are faith based. My bad.

Anyways, I don't think fiat is bad at all, just debt based fiat. As easily as the government can issue a bond it can just the same issue a dollar bill and have our money system be credit based. This alternative fiat benefits the many (the people) as opposed to the few (the lenders/elite/government). It eliminates the need for the federal income tax. It influences a communitive democracy which IMO is better than this competative oligarchy we have under the facade of democracy. Do you really like the rich staying rich, wreckless government spending and a handful of elite running the show all the while everyone else's wealth (yours, mine and 2 or 3 future generation's wealth) is inflated away to subsidize the whole thing?
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Re: Growing US Deficit - Good?

Unread postby threadbear » Tue 21 Nov 2006, 01:35:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Alpaca', 'A')s a result of deficit spending, you increase the likelyhood of inflation and a fall in the value of the US dollar, so when you go to "pay back" this investment, the government is able to use "cheaper" dollars. Reagan used these kind of pyramid schemes in the '80's. Things may have looked good at the time, but he racked up $3 Trillion in dept during his terms. (Just like spending on a giant credit card, and leaving the next guys to worry about the bill)

In a larger sense this is all about the conservatives (i.e republicans) consciously trying to bankrupt the government. Idiologically they believe that the role of government is to provide a military force and to create an economic environment to further enrich corporations and the wealthiest 1%. The way to do this is to "starve the beast" as they've been doing pretty successfully for the past 25 years (with a brief return to some fiscal sanity during Clinton's terms).

If the federal government spends much more than it takes in and goes so deeply into dept (as it now has), they can throw up their hands and say, "we have no money for all these 'descrescionary' spending and social welfare programs!!" That means no funding for education, healthcare, the environment, or any social safety net for the bottom 2/3rds of the population. Right now, the Pentagon and Defence budgets are bigger than everything in the rest of the Federal budget combined.
So, I guess the question becomes...growing US Deficit good for whom?

Beautiful post. Thanks so much. Which neocon was it that said they wanted to shrink govt to the point they could drown it like a cat in a bathtub?
Govt may be expanding, but it's certainly not expanding in the interests of the 80%. It's expanding to benefit the upper 1% and the 15 to 20% of their kapos, the managing class that keep us in line. You can extrapolate the future from looking at the actions of govt today. Just imagine it 10 times worse, intent on decimating already decimated programs and getting rid of others entirely.

Foreign policy is also not understood by people who are looking at Iraq in terms of winners and losers. Who won in Iraq? Clearly the US. No country will dare challenge the petro dollar now, no matter how weak it becomes. If the Borg can't incorporate you they will bomb the sh** out of you, as an example to others.
Iraq bore the collective punishment of the entire region of "uppity" Arabs. Same with VietNam--Punished. Did any country fall to communism after Viet Nam? Did any substantial power question the US, post VietNam? No, as a matter of fact the Soviet state caved, and Communist China became rather compliant.

I thought the dollar would have tanked by now, with the talk of a pullout, a sure sign of defeat. I see now I've been all wrong. Iraq has not been a defeat for those who can use the US military with impunity to bully the world into retaining the reserve status of their currency. That is what is keeping it buoyed in value, at this time. It will drop, but not as precipitously as I expected.
The American people are no more than serfs now, with absolutely zero control of a centralized govt, controlled by corporations.
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Re: Growing US Deficit - Good?

Unread postby nocar » Tue 21 Nov 2006, 10:20:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f our money used gold or silver coins, it would not be "faith based" since gold and silver always have intrinsic value.

To what extent does gold and silver have intrinsic value? Well, gold has some practical uses in dentistry and a few other things. But most gold that is 'used' for something is used for jewelry and gold plated decorations - to look rich, or as a symbol of riches, in other words. Wedding rings are symbols too. Gold in gold bullions is just put in storage in underground caves. Mostly gold is dug up from the earth's crust with lots of human effort (and usually lots of environmental destruction too) in order to be buried again, although in bank valves or bank boxes.

For silver the situation is similar
Although I admit that the symbolic value of gold and silver (well, gold in particular) has been relatively constant for millenia, which makes it seem likely to keep.
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Re: Growing US Deficit - Good?

Unread postby Doly » Tue 21 Nov 2006, 10:24:37

Gold and silver have about the same "intrinsic value" as precious stones. And are you aware that, since you can make synthetic rubies, the price of rubies has plummeted?
Gold and silver, being elements, would require some radioactive process to synthesize, and I can't see a cheap process in the foreseeable future - but I wouldn't be at all certain that they won't be as regularly synthesized as diamonds, rubies and zircons in, say, fifty years time.
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Re: Growing US Deficit - Good?

Unread postby Kingcoal » Tue 21 Nov 2006, 11:01:40

Economic growth is everything, period. As long as the world economy is growing, the dollar, the euro and most other currencies are safe. It tends to be chicken and egg, money is printed to stimulate economic growth and hopefully the world economy grows enough to absorb the extra money. I've noticed that a lot of time the argument centers around that practice. The more conservative economists would rather wait for results before printing more money. Pain is an essential element. The lower classes must constantly be starved slightly to make them keep working, producing value for the ruling classes. That pain is inflation, which depresses real wages, and the ever constant demand for more productivity. This system can be likened to a master whipping a slave, demanding he work ever harder. The more accomplished slaves often invent better ways of doing things and even new technologies, which are then exploited by the masters.

The ruling classes are simply the investors. That would include possibly your grandmother, Warren Buffet, me, you, etc. The working classes would include most of those under the age of 30 who have yet to enter into the world of investing.
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Re: Growing US Deficit - Good?

Unread postby mmasters » Tue 21 Nov 2006, 14:06:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Alpaca', 'A')s a result of deficit spending, you increase the likelyhood of inflation and a fall in the value of the US dollar, so when you go to "pay back" this investment, the government is able to use "cheaper" dollars. Reagan used these kind of pyramid schemes in the '80's. Things may have looked good at the time, but he racked up $3 Trillion in dept during his terms. (Just like spending on a giant credit card, and leaving the next guys to worry about the bill)

In a larger sense this is all about the conservatives (i.e republicans) consciously trying to bankrupt the government. Idiologically they believe that the role of government is to provide a military force and to create an economic environment to further enrich corporations and the wealthiest 1%. The way to do this is to "starve the beast" as they've been doing pretty successfully for the past 25 years (with a brief return to some fiscal sanity during Clinton's terms).

If the federal government spends much more than it takes in and goes so deeply into dept (as it now has), they can throw up their hands and say, "we have no money for all these 'descrescionary' spending and social welfare programs!!" That means no funding for education, healthcare, the environment, or any social safety net for the bottom 2/3rds of the population. Right now, the Pentagon and Defence budgets are bigger than everything in the rest of the Federal budget combined.

So, I guess the question becomes...growing US Deficit good for whom?

Definitely good for the globalists that want to dissolve the US, Mexico and Canada into NAFTA. Same with LATAM, ASEAN, etc...
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Re: Growing US Deficit - Good?

Unread postby threadbear » Tue 21 Nov 2006, 14:19:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kingcoal', 'E')conomic growth is everything, period. As long as the world economy is growing, the dollar, the euro and most other currencies are safe. It tends to be chicken and egg, money is printed to stimulate economic growth and hopefully the world economy grows enough to absorb the extra money. I've noticed that a lot of time the argument centers around that practice. The more conservative economists would rather wait for results before printing more money. Pain is an essential element. The lower classes must constantly be starved slightly to make them keep working, producing value for the ruling classes. That pain is inflation, which depresses real wages, and the ever constant demand for more productivity. This system can be likened to a master whipping a slave, demanding he work ever harder. The more accomplished slaves often invent better ways of doing things and even new technologies, which are then exploited by the masters.
The ruling classes are simply the investors. That would include possibly your grandmother, Warren Buffet, me, you, etc. The working classes would include most of those under the age of 30 who have yet to enter into the world of investing.

The idea that the ruling class are simply investors is not quite illuminating the picture. The ruling class have direct control of corporations and reward themselves and their kapos, handsomely, through phoney options schemes and obscenely large incomes.
The Dow has gone basically nowhere for 6 years or more, and if you factor inflation into the picture, people who have money invested in 401Ks that favour "blue chip" corporations, have actually lost money.

Holding shares in a corporation is no longer a way of democratizing a capitalist economy. As the piracy of interlocking corporate boards, replaces solid governance in the corporate boardrooms, the problems aren't just systemic, they have become criminal.
The theory of the rising tide raising all boats has been exposed as utter nonsense. The only boats rising are the pirate ships that have commandeered the economy.Shareholders have been left clinging to life rafts, and the person under 30, without shares has been utterly capsized long ago.
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Re: Growing US Deficit - Good?

Unread postby lee » Tue 21 Nov 2006, 16:20:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f our money used gold or silver coins, it would not be "faith based" since gold and silver always have intrinsic value.

No they don't. This is just plain wrong. Wrong. Wrong. Wrong. Wrong.
Seawater has about as many uses as gold or silver. Do people value seawater? No, they don't. Why? Because it is abundant!
If gold and silver were as abundant as seawater, we would NOT use them for currency. We would have to use something else. If diamonds were as common as granite, they would not have nearly the same value.

There is no 'intrinsic' value to gold. Value is determined by supply and demand. If something is so plentiful that we can't run out, like air for breathing, then it has no value. It has a use, but no value.
It seems to me that you have only thought this halfway through. Remember, we are not talking about usefulness, we are talking about value, something that somebody would want to EXCHANGE for.
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Re: Growing US Deficit - Good?

Unread postby Kingcoal » Tue 21 Nov 2006, 17:36:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kingcoal', 'E')conomic growth is everything, period. As long as the world economy is growing, the dollar, the euro and most other currencies are safe. It tends to be chicken and egg, money is printed to stimulate economic growth and hopefully the world economy grows enough to absorb the extra money. I've noticed that a lot of time the argument centers around that practice. The more conservative economists would rather wait for results before printing more money. Pain is an essential element. The lower classes must constantly be starved slightly to make them keep working, producing value for the ruling classes. That pain is inflation, which depresses real wages, and the ever constant demand for more productivity. This system can be likened to a master whipping a slave, demanding he work ever harder. The more accomplished slaves often invent better ways of doing things and even new technologies, which are then exploited by the masters.
The ruling classes are simply the investors. That would include possibly your grandmother, Warren Buffet, me, you, etc. The working classes would include most of those under the age of 30 who have yet to enter into the world of investing.

The idea that the ruling class are simply investors is not quite illuminating the picture. The ruling class have direct control of corporations and reward themselves and their kapos, handsomely, through phoney options schemes and obscenely large incomes.
The Dow has gone basically nowhere for 6 years or more, and if you factor inflation into the picture, people who have money invested in 401Ks that favour "blue chip" corporations, have actually lost money.
Holding shares in a corporation is no longer a way of democratizing a capitalist economy. As the piracy of interlocking corporate boards, replaces solid governance in the corporate boardrooms, the problems aren't just systemic, they have become criminal.
The theory of the rising tide raising all boats has been exposed as utter nonsense. The only boats rising are the pirate ships that have commandeered the economy.Shareholders have been left clinging to life rafts, and the person under 30, without shares has been utterly capsized long ago.

Money and power are directly proportional. Oil is money, gold is money, grain is money, etc.
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Re: Growing US Deficit - Good?

Unread postby mmasters » Tue 21 Nov 2006, 17:50:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lee', 'I')f our money used gold or silver coins, it would not be "faith based" since gold and silver always have intrinsic value.

No they don't. This is just plain wrong. Wrong. Wrong. Wrong. Wrong.
Seawater has about as many uses as gold or silver. Do people value seawater? No, they don't. Why? Because it is abundant!
If gold and silver were as abundant as seawater, we would NOT use them for currency. We would have to use something else. If diamonds were as common as granite, they would not have nearly the same value.
There is no 'intrinsic' value to gold. Value is determined by supply and demand. If something is so plentiful that we can't run out, like air for breathing, then it has no value. It has a use, but no value.
It seems to me that you have only thought this halfway through. Remember, we are not talking about usefulness, we are talking about value, something that somebody would want to EXCHANGE for.[/quote]
You're displaying your ignorance because want doesn't necessarily have anything to do with it. You can use beads, shells, yak dung, many things.

There's only a few requirements to have a successful currency:
1) it's universally recognised and agreed upon (usually the hardest part)
2) it has an easy to define value.
3) hard if not impossible to fake/counterfiet.
4) the supply of it in the system is properly managed to avoid economic booms and busts

The last point is where we messed up by giving the FED the power to manage our money supply. It's a private institution disguised as a government institution to fool people into thinking they are for the people. They are the greatest scam ever put upon the american people, constantly debasing of our currency in the name of "inflation fighting", their suckering people to believe that booms and busts are a natural phenomenon called the "business cycle", and so on. The greed and deception of the FED will destroy the USD just how every central bank controlled currency has met and will always meet its ugly demise.
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Re: Growing US Deficit - Good?

Unread postby threadbear » Tue 21 Nov 2006, 18:25:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kingcoal', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kingcoal', 'E')conomic growth is everything, period. As long as the world economy is growing, the dollar, the euro and most other currencies are safe. It tends to be chicken and egg, money is printed to stimulate economic growth and hopefully the world economy grows enough to absorb the extra money. I've noticed that a lot of time the argument centers around that practice. The more conservative economists would rather wait for results before printing more money. Pain is an essential element. The lower classes must constantly be starved slightly to make them keep working, producing value for the ruling classes. That pain is inflation, which depresses real wages, and the ever constant demand for more productivity. This system can be likened to a master whipping a slave, demanding he work ever harder. The more accomplished slaves often invent better ways of doing things and even new technologies, which are then exploited by the masters.
The ruling classes are simply the investors. That would include possibly your grandmother, Warren Buffet, me, you, etc. The working classes would include most of those under the age of 30 who have yet to enter into the world of investing.

The idea that the ruling class are simply investors is not quite illuminating the picture. The ruling class have direct control of corporations and reward themselves and their kapos, handsomely, through phoney options schemes and obscenely large incomes.
The Dow has gone basically nowhere for 6 years or more, and if you factor inflation into the picture, people who have money invested in 401Ks that favour "blue chip" corporations, have actually lost money.
Holding shares in a corporation is no longer a way of democratizing a capitalist economy. As the piracy of interlocking corporate boards, replaces solid governance in the corporate boardrooms, the problems aren't just systemic, they have become criminal.
The theory of the rising tide raising all boats has been exposed as utter nonsense. The only boats rising are the pirate ships that have commandeered the economy.Shareholders have been left clinging to life rafts, and the person under 30, without shares has been utterly capsized long ago.

Money and power are directly proportional. Oil is money, gold is money, grain is money, etc.

And your point is? American money and oil, at the present time, have proportional power. Gold isn't money and fluctuates up and down against the paper currency, reflecting confidence or lack of in it. Grain isn't money but can be exchanged for money. Though you'd have a tough time convincing Saskatchewan farmers that your wheat equals power equation, is accurate, at the present time.
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Re: Growing US Deficit - Good?

Unread postby lee » Tue 21 Nov 2006, 21:28:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mmasters', '1')) it's universally recognised and agreed upon (usually the hardest part)
2) it has an easy to define value.
3) hard if not impossible to fake/counterfiet.
4) the supply of it in the system is properly managed to avoid economic booms and busts

I guess you are arguing semantics. Last time I checked, people WANT money.
Why? Because of #1, #2, and #3 !
#4 has nothing to do with the medium of exchange., it has to do with the way the medium is created/exchanged/destroyed. Any medium of exchange must be managed or it is susceptible to volatility.
Moreover, I would add the extra condition that:
5) The medium of exchange be convenient.

20 lb. dumbells would not be a good medium of exchange. This is where the gold coins comes in. Having gold coins is not convenient. The gold is better used for other things. So, we use paper and zinc/nickel type metal. We also use computers with mass information storage devices.
Now, we all know why the whole gold, 'intrinsic value' rant is very tired. Our medium of exchange is well thought out and consistent.
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Re: Growing US Deficit - Good?

Unread postby mmasters » Tue 21 Nov 2006, 21:42:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lee', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mmasters', '1')) it's universally recognised and agreed upon (usually the hardest part)
2) it has an easy to define value.
3) hard if not impossible to fake/counterfiet.
4) the supply of it in the system is properly managed to avoid economic booms and busts

I guess you are arguing semantics. Last time I checked, people WANT money.
Why? Because of #1, #2, and #3 !
#4 has nothing to do with the medium of exchange., it has to do with the way the medium is created/exchanged/destroyed. Any medium of exchange must be managed or it is susceptible to volatility.
Moreover, I would add the extra condition that:
5) The medium of exchange be convenient.
20 lb. dumbells would not be a good medium of exchange. This is where the gold coins comes in. Having gold coins is not convenient. The gold is better used for other things. So, we use paper and zinc/nickel type metal. We also use computers with mass information storage devices.
Now, we all know why the whole gold, 'intrinsic value' rant is very tired. Our medium of exchange is well thought out and consistent.

Want is not a factor in creating a currency it's a product of it. and 4 has everything to do with the integrity of the currency because it will fail if it is not managed properly, like how the US dollar will fail. Point 5 is part of point one, people wont find 20 dumbells an agreeable system. But yeah this is arguing semantics. The real point I'm getting at is the fraud of the FED but semantics seems to be the only game you want to play.
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Bubble Armageddon: A $370 trillion balloon about to pop

Unread postby Zardoz » Sat 25 Nov 2006, 13:59:49

Your comments, please:

Housing bubble smack-down

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'i')f we compare our situation to what happened in Japan during the 1990s, we can expect that prices will continue to fall for years to come, perhaps, a decade or more. Many of the slower markets are already showing a decline of 10 percent to 20 percent. This is a trend that is likely to speed up dramatically in 2007 when $1 trillion in ARMs reset. That’s when we’ll begin to see a truly new phenomenon in the US, that is, people who’ve always been solid members of the middle class sliding downwards into the ranks of the working poor.

By 2008, if the present trend-lines persist, housing prices will probably drop to 25 percent to 30 percent of their 2005 value; diminishing equity value by approximately 45 percent to 50 percent for most homeowners.


The biggest bubble of all - derivatives Trading Soars to $370 Trillion – it will be the root cause for global depression

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he kind of euphoria in derivative trading has never been seen before. The amount of outstanding credit-default swaps contracts jumped by 60% at the end of last year. This year the rise is even faster. It is a typical pyramiding technique. Money is creating false concept of money and that in turn is creating ever lager conceptual money. When the tide blow off and balloon bursts, the catastrophe will be unimaginable. The 1929 debacle and resulting depression will be miniscule to what is coming.

That's it. I'm calling my doctor Monday and begging for an anti-depressant prescription...
Last edited by Zardoz on Sun 26 Nov 2006, 12:46:39, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Bubble Armageddon

Unread postby Atlantean_Relic » Sat 25 Nov 2006, 15:00:20

You know I've come to the conculsion I want things to get shitty sooner rather than later. I don't want to get used to a new status quo when I'm in my 40's. I know that I can adapt to living in hell now, later I'm not so sure.
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Re: Bubble Armageddon

Unread postby Ingenuity_Gap » Sat 25 Nov 2006, 21:17:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', 'T')hat's it. I'm calling my doctor Monday and begging for an anti-depressant prescription...


If you feel depressed, please don't wait. Depression is a terrible thing, but can be treated.

There's nothing better than a healthy optimistic attitude. If you feel at peace with yourself, any place is home.
"The world is becoming too complex and too fast-paced to manage." - Thomas Homer-Dixon
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Re: Bubble Armageddon

Unread postby TommyJefferson » Sun 26 Nov 2006, 12:21:59

"Foreign investments are up $20 billion in one month? Are you kidding me?

So, the smart money is getting out of Dodge pronto; leaving the rest of us behind in a leaky canoe.
"

Good article Z.
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Re: Bubble Armageddon: A $370 trillion balloon about to pop

Unread postby Armageddon » Sun 26 Nov 2006, 13:41:50

2007 is looking more and more like the year it all starts happening. I dont think life as we know it will be the same in a few years from now. I also cant see the world keep letting the US consume 25% of the worlds energy much longer.
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Re: Bubble Armageddon

Unread postby Ludi » Sun 26 Nov 2006, 14:31:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Atlantean_Relic', 'Y')ou know I've come to the conculsion I want things to get shitty sooner rather than later. I don't want to get used to a new status quo when I'm in my 40's. I know that I can adapt to living in hell now, later I'm not so sure.


Yep, I'd much rather all this were happening when I was younger....
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