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Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: How many dollars do we really have?

Unread postby oilfreeandhappy » Sat 26 Aug 2006, 14:07:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gego', 'W')hat do you mean by dollars? Do you mean these rectangular green and grey peices of paper we carry in our wallets and purses? If you mean these, then there are somewhere around $760 billion floating around.

These are actually bills of credit printed by the US treasury, but issued by the Federal Reserve Bank (FED). They are promises to pay (debts) of the FED, and are declared legal tender by the US government. If you took one of these to the FED and ask them to pay up, they would laugh at you since they are really promises to pay nothing, i.e., they are backed by nothing but the general assets of the FED. The general assets of the FED consist mostly of US government debts, debts of other banks, and supposedly some gold in Fort Knox. If you want something of value for your paper "dollars", then you must spend them which is sort of like passing the hot potato on to the next guy.

If you mean the money supply, rather than just the currency component of it, then there are different definitions. What it boils down to is, "How much of the debts of banks do you want to count?" All the money, except for the minor amount of coins in circulation, is bank debt. The Federal Reserve notes are the debts of the FED; your checking account is the debt of your bank; your savings account and certificates of deposits are the debts of your bank. If you want to stop here the total is in the neighborhood of $6.3 trillion.

Note that I used "$" in front of these numbers, but technically, I think this is incorrect since the dollar sign represents US dollars, and technically there are no US dollars in circulation, just bank debts, so the real answer to your question is zero.


Good answers, Gego. You sound like you know what you're talking about on a subject that I know very little about.
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Coming Economic Meltdown

Unread postby uNkNowN ElEmEnt » Thu 14 Sep 2006, 11:12:57

Sorry its another long one. visiting the link is well worth the time IMO.$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')By Mike Whitney

<snip>

With wages stagnating since the 1970s, the increase in home equity has been the preferred method for most Americans to “get ahead.” Housing prices have steadily increased since the 1980s and skyrocketed in the last five years. This has created a feeding-frenzy for low interest loans and attracted millions of speculators and (traditionally) unqualified applicants to the real estate gold rush.

It’s been a great deal for the banks, too. Mortgages make up the bulk of the banks' loans in America, more than $400 billion last year alone. If it weren’t for the steady steam of mortgages, many banks would have seen negative growth in the last decade. Now that housing prices are flattening out and expected to fall (precipitously), the easy money has dried up and many over-leveraged homeowners are facing the dismal prospect of having to pay off an asset that is quickly losing its value. Economist Michael Hudson calls this phenomenon “negative equity,” that is, when the current value of the house falls beneath the amount that one has to pay on his mortgage. It is a predicament which now faces an estimated 30 million Americans who are drowning in red ink and skittering towards a life of indentured servitude.

The magnitude of the housing bubble is shocking and unprecedented. According to the Federal Reserve's own figures, “The total amount of residential housing wealth in the US just about doubled between 1999 and 2006, up from $10.4 trillion to $20.4 trillion.”(Times Online) This tells us that the Fed had a clear idea of the size of the equity balloon their low interest policies were creating, but decided not to take corrective action. It also tells us that there will be no “soft landing.” When the market begins to fall, no one knows when it will hit bottom. Ten trillion dollars are more than a “little froth,” as Greenspan opined; it is an earth-shaking, economy-busting catastrophe that will put millions at risk of foreclosure, bankruptcy and ruin.

Greenspan and the privately-owned Fed played a major role in putting us in this mess by rubber-stamping the new system of precarious loans (no down payments, interest-only loans, ARMs) and perpetuating their “cheap money” policies. Greenspan admitted this a few months ago when he said that current housing increases were “unsustainable” and would have corrected long ago if not for the “the dramatic increase in the prevalence of interest-only loans . . . and more exotic forms of adjustable rate mortgages that enable marginally-qualified, highly leveraged borrowers to purchase homes at inflated prices.”...

From cato.org under "Ending Corporate Welfare As We Know It"

The last total I saw is that business subsidies amount to 85 billion dollars of the federal budget. That kind of money could do very well to fund better domestic spending and to begin to cut into the out of control federal deficit.

The following list includes some of the more egregious taxpayer subsidies to industries and firms.

* Through Sematech, a consortium of very large U.S. computer microchip producers, the Pentagon provides nearly $100 million a year of support to the industry. But of the more than 200 chipmakers in the United States, only the 14 largest, including Intel and National Semiconductor, receive federal support from Sematech.<3> Originally designed to help U.S. firms compete against foreign competition, Sematech now subsidizes the largest producers to help fend off smaller domestic competition.<4>

* An estimated 40 percent of the $1.4 billion sugar price support program benefits the largest 1 percent of sugar farms. The 33 largest sugar cane plantations each receive more than $1 million.<5>

* Through the Rural Electrification Administration and the federal power marketing administrations, the federal government provides some $2 billion in subsidies each year to large and profitable electric utility cooperatives, such as ALLTEL, which had sales of $2.3 billion last year.<6> Federally subsidized electricity holds down the costs of running ski resorts in Aspen, Colorado, five-star hotels in Hilton Head, South Carolina, and gambling casinos in Las Vegas, Nevada.<7>

* Last year the Forest Service spent $140 million building roads in national forests, thus subsidizing the removal of timber from federal lands by multi-million-dollar timber companies. Over the past 20 years the Forest Service has built 340,000 miles of roads -- more than eight times the length of the interstate highway system -- primarily for the benefit of logging companies.<8>

* The Department of Agriculture Market Promotion Program spends $110 million per year underwriting the cost of advertising American products abroad. In 1991 American taxpayers spent $2.9 million advertising Pillsbury muffins and pies, $10 million promoting Sunkist oranges, $465,000 advertising McDonald's Chicken McNuggets, $1.2 million boosting the international sales of American Legend mink coats, and $2.5 million extolling the virtues of Dole pineapples, nuts, and prunes.<9>

* Last year a House of Representatives investigative team discovered that federal environmental cleanup and defense contractors had been milking federal taxpayers for millions of dollars in entertainment, recreation, and party expenses.<10> Martin Marietta Corporation charged the Pentagon $263,000 for a Smokey Robinson concert, $20,000 for the purchase of golf balls, and $7,500 for a 1993 office Christmas party. Ecology and Environment, Inc., of Lancaster, New York, spent $243,000 of funds designated for environmental cleanup on "employee morale" and $37,000 on tennis lessons, bike races, golf tournaments, and other entertainment.<11> Such activities give new meaning to the term "corporate welfare."

"A conservative is a man who is too cowardly to fight and too fat to run. " -- Elbert Hubbard
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Re: Coming Economic Meltdown

Unread postby clueless » Thu 14 Sep 2006, 11:58:34

Big Deal ? The economy has always been ran by bubbles. Is this new news ? And why the obsession over the housing bubble ? If your hopes are to come in after the crash and buy for 10 cents on the dollar it isn't going to happen. The Govt. is going to continue to inflate the currency until the middle class is completely bankrupt, and by that time it will be too late.
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Re: Coming Economic Meltdown

Unread postby uNkNowN ElEmEnt » Thu 14 Sep 2006, 12:04:37

Hey clueless... I'm not even in your country.. If it were news I'd have submitted it to the news editors. I already own my own home CLEAR so I don't need to come in and buy at 10 cents on the dollar. Who pissed in your cornflakes? Isn't the majority of the middle class already bankrupt?

Some of us like different perspectives on what's going on. That might turn out to be a pretty good news source... but why am I bothering.
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Re: Coming Economic Meltdown

Unread postby clueless » Thu 14 Sep 2006, 12:07:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') already own my own home CLEAR so I don't need to come in and buy at 10 cents on the dollar.

Me too ! But big deal - Try not paying your property taxes and see what happens to your "Clear" home. :lol:
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Re: Coming Economic Meltdown

Unread postby clueless » Thu 14 Sep 2006, 12:13:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')'m not even in your country..


Oh - And this makes no difference also, No country is on a "Gold Standard" anymore, so all currencies are inflating not just the US.
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Re: Coming Economic Meltdown

Unread postby EnergyHog » Thu 14 Sep 2006, 12:16:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('clueless', 'B')ig Deal ? The economy has always been ran by bubbles. Is this new news ? And why the obsession over the housing bubble ? If your hopes are to come in after the crash and buy for 10 cents on the dollar it isn't going to happen. The Govt. is going to continue to inflate the currency until the middle class is completely bankrupt, and by that time it will be too late.


Are you serious or do you just not study economics?
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Re: Coming Economic Meltdown

Unread postby uNkNowN ElEmEnt » Thu 14 Sep 2006, 12:20:02

yeah sure. you're just jealous aren't you? Cause I have a home that no one would want, I did that on purpose. Its beautiful to me, I have a nice garden, killer nice neighbours, a wonderful town and my taxes are all of 143.00 PER YEAR. a hooker could make that in a night. lol.

yeah, I am laughing cause I live way out in the end of no where, city slickers couldn't find it and wouldn't want to. I don't own my land. There is no reason for the government to expropriate it, its not even good for making kitty litter. Again on purpose. Anyone who is smart enough (and maybe is peak oil aware or has peaker friends) could figure out things they can do.

I heeded the advice of the wise ones here on peak oil and made my move just over a year ago. I could care less if there is a meltdown personally except for the sick fascination I have with watching the outside world implode and the friends I have who would suffer. but hey if I ever win the lottery I'd definitely be inclined to share with my friends (like I did with my last windfa \man that was a fun shopping trip).

but still you sure have a lot of assumptions about someone you don't know, have never met and have never even addressed before. typical.
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Re: Coming Economic Meltdown

Unread postby clueless » Thu 14 Sep 2006, 12:25:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyHog', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('clueless', 'B')ig Deal ? The economy has always been ran by bubbles. Is this new news ? And why the obsession over the housing bubble ? If your hopes are to come in after the crash and buy for 10 cents on the dollar it isn't going to happen. The Govt. is going to continue to inflate the currency until the middle class is completely bankrupt, and by that time it will be too late.

Are you serious or do you just not study economics?

How about filling me in Einstein ? In 1976 my Dad could have bought a house for less than one years average wages, that same house now costs 7 times that much (even adjusting wages for inflation). Housing prices have run up over 100% in six years, I have bought and sold four of them and even though they may fall back 20-30 % that is still a 70% devaluation in the purchaising power of the dollar in relation to housing or a net 70% appreciation in housing prices. If it goes any lower the govt will cut interest rates and start the cycle all over.
BtW: I have no use for economists.
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Re: Coming Economic Meltdown

Unread postby DantesPeak » Thu 14 Sep 2006, 12:42:11

Well, yes, the modern US economy is run on bubbles. It has been since the 1920s, shortly after the start of the Federal Reserve.

The problem is that the Fed blew up the housing bubble too much to recover from the deflating hightech bubble of 2000, and to paper over the effects of 9/11-2001. The question is now - is there a bigger bubble than housing to keep the US bubble economy from breaking down? That is - will there be or can there be a bubble that will cause US consumers to go even deeper into debt - or will the up-side-down housing debt pyramid finally collapse on the US economy?

Stay tuned. The downfall will be very fast when it gathers some momnetum.
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Re: Coming Economic Meltdown

Unread postby clueless » Thu 14 Sep 2006, 12:44:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')re you serious or do you just not study economics?

I'm waiting ...
One more thing to ponder while you are "filling me in" why would Bush put a guy like Bernanke in ??? Because he is pro-inflation, Greenspan wasn't even pro-inflation and look what he did, as opposed to Volker.

Inflation means (in effect) higher prices across the board. And I have been waiting for Fannie and Freddie to bust for three years, guess what, it isn't going to happen, know why ? Cause the fed prints the money, and who prints the money makes the rules. And if you think house prices are going to go back to pre-1990 prices forget it, wages would have to drop also. Outside of one period of time (Great Depression) it has never happened and never will.
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Re: Coming Economic Meltdown

Unread postby clueless » Thu 14 Sep 2006, 12:49:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', 'W')ell, yes, the modern US economy is run on bubbles. It has been since the 1920s, shortly after the start of the Federal Reserve.
The problem is that the Fed blew up the housing bubble too much to recover from the deflating hightech bubble of 2000, and to paper over the effects of 9/11-2001. The question is now - is there a bigger bubble than housing to keep the US bubble economy from breaking down? That is - will there be or can there be a bubble that will cause US consumers to go even deeper into debt - or will the up-side-down housing debt pyramid finally collapse on the US economy?
Stay tuned. The downfall will be very fast when it gathers some momnetum.

The banking system loans funny money through fractional reserve banking. The S&L crisis caused some problems but in the end did no long term damage. The US consumer drives the global economy and in order to remain an economic power the US needs to keep spending and consuming. The banks will simply charge off this bad credit card debt (this gives them huge tax breaks anyway) and reissue new contracts - they are doing it now. 20 years ago if you had a 30 day late your couldn't get a credit card, now people who have no jobs and BK's can borrow 20k with a signature, In other words they will just keep lending over and over, they are doing it now, and that will keep the US economy purring along until we have some type of international crisis.
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Re: Coming Economic Meltdown

Unread postby clueless » Thu 14 Sep 2006, 13:06:27

And one other thing to consider the MULTINATIONAL Banking system wields tremendous power throughout the world, not to mention the IMF, under our current economic paradigm it is the banking system (including Central Banks) we should be watching not the oil companies. High amounts of liquidity will increase resource extraction and hasten our problems.

And the world is seeking after three things - Luxury, Fun and Comfort.
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Re: Coming Economic Meltdown

Unread postby Zentric » Thu 14 Sep 2006, 16:23:37

You assume too much, "clueless." Once the midterm elections are dispensed with, consider the distinct possibility of tighter lending standards, increased interest rates, massive layoffs, bankruptcies, foreclosures, pension defaults, and decreased money supply (i.e., deflation).
The resulting depression could resolve peak oil, increase military recruitment, and might even slow down the pace of global warming.
It would help those in power in the English-speaking countries stay in power (where war and autocratic governance would be our main export), and I can't imagine, seeing scant alternative, why those in power in Europe, China and Japan wouldn't want to go along with it.
So save your dollars in your mattress - and have a nice day!
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Re: Coming Economic Meltdown

Unread postby clueless » Thu 14 Sep 2006, 16:35:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zentric', 'Y')ou assume too much, "clueless." Once the midterm elections are dispensed with, consider the distinct possibility of tighter lending standards, increased interest rates, massive layoffs, bankruptcies, foreclosures, pension defaults, and decreased money supply (i.e., deflation).
The resulting depression could resolve peak oil, increase military recruitment, and might even slow down the pace of global warming.
It would help those in power in the English-speaking countries stay in power (where war and autocratic governance would be our main export), and I can't imagine, seeing scant alternative, why those in power in Europe, China and Japan wouldn't want to go along with it.
So save your dollars in your mattress - and have a nice day

You may be right, but history doesn't show that. I am not entirely convinced that I am right. I'm sick and tired of navigating through the bubble lifestyle, I have all my debts paid and really wouldn't mind socialism (at least the European type).
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Re: Coming Economic Meltdown

Unread postby clueless » Thu 14 Sep 2006, 16:57:13

These I believe could be very likely
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'c')onsider the distinct possibility of tighter lending standards, increased interest rates, massive layoffs, bankruptcies, foreclosures, pension defaults, and

This I don't:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'd')ecreased money supply (i.e., deflation).

And this is a relative statement, I think what you might mean is they would inflate "less". The US cannot ever stop inflating, it is not possible, too many unfunded liabilites
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Re: Coming Economic Meltdown

Unread postby rogerhb » Thu 14 Sep 2006, 17:07:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('clueless', 'T')he US cannot ever stop inflating, it is not possible, too many unfunded liabilites

Think Argentina, think Weimar Republic, think Zimbabwe.
The US can only inflate while there is faith in the dollar. When the faith evaporates then the dollar becomes meaningless.
If the rest of the world can't buy oil for love nor money, they won't need dollars.
"Complex problems have simple, easy to understand, wrong answers." - Henry Louis Mencken
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Re: Coming Economic Meltdown

Unread postby clueless » Thu 14 Sep 2006, 17:17:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hink Argentina, think Weimar Republic, think Zimbabwe.
The US can only inflate while there is faith in the dollar. When the faith evaporates then the dollar becomes meaningless.
If the rest of the world can't buy oil for love nor money, they won't need dollars.

I have thought about those - None of those countries had anywhere close to the control the US has over the international banking system. I am as disatisfied with the US policy as you guys are (I have 2 young children), so I am not being biaed just real. I've been waiting for Fannie and Freddie to bust for three years, but it ain't going to happen, along with thier GSE status, they have a large amount of foreign ownership, so our own creditors don't want them to bust either.
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Re: Coming Economic Meltdown

Unread postby rogerhb » Thu 14 Sep 2006, 17:22:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('clueless', 't')hey have a large amount of foreign ownership, so our own creditors don't want them to bust either.

But if America keeps on playing it's game of being Mr International Bastard and foreigners realise that it's reached the point of lose-lose, then pulling the plug on the US dollar is a sensible option. Ie, the international economy is going down hill and there is no actual gain to be had from proping up the dollar.
However this is a waiting game.
"Complex problems have simple, easy to understand, wrong answers." - Henry Louis Mencken
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Re: Coming Economic Meltdown

Unread postby clueless » Thu 14 Sep 2006, 17:50:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ut if America keeps on playing it's game of being Mr International Bastard and foreigners realise that it's reached the point of lose-lose, then pulling the plug on the US dollar is a sensible option. Ie, the international economy is going down hill and there is no actual gain to be had from proping up the dollar.
However this is a waiting game.

I fully agree - You are dead on right. We are in an international game of chicken. I say the US keeps on being B*******. What do you think ?
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