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PeakOil is You

THE US Economy Thread (merged)

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Economic disparity greatest since 1928 - Is this an omen

Unread postby gg3 » Thu 29 Mar 2007, 01:03:15

The problem isn't Bill Gates' billions, it's Bob & Betty on the bread line.

Now this becomes a rather difficult issue from the libertarian perspective, because on one hand we want to see success rewarded, and we don't want Big Brother in the board room any more than in the bed room.

But on the other hand, empirically, income disparity is the single largest predictor of social unrest. When the Haves keep having more, and the Have-Nots keep having less, sooner or later the Have-Nots decide they've had enough, and then they have a revolution.

One way or another, we have to deal with this.
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Re: Economic disparity greatest since 1928 - Is this an omen

Unread postby The_Toecutter » Thu 29 Mar 2007, 01:18:04

I agree with what gg3 said.


It becomes a much easier decision in cases where certain people make their billions off of cheating tapayers with corporate welfare schemes, making the arms used for killing people in illegal wars and lobbying for those wars, using immenent domain to unconstitutionally remove people of their property, damaging someone's property with their wastye products without compensation, or stalling those viable technologies that would aid in conservation.
The unnecessary felling of a tree, perhaps the old growth of centuries, seems to me a crime little short of murder. ~Thomas Jefferson
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Re: Economic disparity greatest since 1928 - Is this an omen

Unread postby grink1tt3n » Thu 29 Mar 2007, 01:57:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TreebeardsUncle', 'L')ooks like another depression like that is on the way. However, more protective measures are in place now to prevent such extreme crashes as in 29. Also, the government is more inclined to spend itself out of a depression now than in the early 30's under Hoover.

G


Took the words right outta my mouth.

Not saying we're not in for some hardship, but the 2000s are not the 1920s, for better or worse.
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Re: Economic disparity greatest since 1928 - Is this an omen

Unread postby seldom_seen » Thu 29 Mar 2007, 02:03:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TreebeardsUncle', 'H')owever, more protective measures are in place now to prevent such extreme crashes as in 29.

I think you're confusing the market crash of 29 with the great depression. The items were certainly related but not synonymous.
But how the world turns. One day, cock of the walk. Next, a feather duster.
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Re: Economic disparity greatest since 1928 - Is this an omen

Unread postby bshirt » Thu 29 Mar 2007, 06:37:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TreebeardsUncle', 'L')ooks like another depression like that is on the way. However, more protective measures are in place now to prevent such extreme crashes as in 29. Also, the government is more inclined to spend itself out of a depression now than in the early 30's under Hoover.

G


That's like comparing a mole hill to mount Everest.

1. In 1929 the US was solvent vs the current trillions of dollars in debt.

2. In 1929 the US was the world's greatest exporter vs the current world's greatest importer.

3. In 1929 the US had little overhead unproductivity to carry vs the current almost unlimited state and federal welfare, public schools, social programs, military, political bureaucracy, etc, etc, to carry.
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Re: Economic disparity greatest since 1928 - Is this an omen

Unread postby aldente » Thu 29 Mar 2007, 07:22:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('The_Toecutter', '
')... or stalling those viable technologies that would aid in conservation.


What makes you think that conservation is a good thing? Are you 'conservative"?

Conservation leads to:

1. nothing but a prolonged point of Peak Oil
and is directly related (though different from):
2. Jevons Paradox

The latter is what the Germans in particular do not understand. Waste homeostasis is the principle where energy savings realized from better technology affords increased usage thereby achieving no net improvement in energy savings. Over there they feel that ' SPAREN' will do the trick and they are wrong.

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Re: Economic disparity greatest since 1928 - Is this an omen

Unread postby The_Toecutter » Thu 29 Mar 2007, 22:54:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hat makes you think that conservation is a good thing?

It isn't a matter of what I 'think'. The bottom line is that the more we do with each barrel of oil and each unit of energy, the less environmental impact we will have for a given living standard. Lower ecological footprint per amount of productive output is better.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')re you 'conservative"?

Depends on what is considered 'conservative'.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')onservation leads to:
1. nothing but a prolonged point of Peak Oil

Maybe. If we by some miracle ever get ourselves out of the oil age before nature does it for us, peak oil would become far less relevant than it is today.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '2'). Jevons Paradox

Jevon's paradox has the following restraints or caveats:
-Put something on sale, and people will buy more of it. However, people will buy as much as they want, and not as much as they can, provided what they want to buy is less than what they have the potential to buy.
-It is a phenominon that ignores excess consumption being encouraged to maximize corporate profit, whether by refusing to build efficient or long-lasting products, or by manipulating the price to encourage consumption in a given direction
-Jevon's paradox is an observation. It is by no means garunteed, but instead an educated guess one might be able to make based on past trends and empiricle data. It is a good guess, but not a certain guess.
-Post peak oil we WILL have a decreased supply of oil. We will not be able to increase consumption beyond geological limits, despite Jevon's paradox suggesting that consumption should still increase if we increase the efficiency by which we use the oil. Conservation will make each barrel of oil that can be extracted do more much than it does today.
-On an individual as opposed to a collective basis, Jevon's paradox isn't completely applicable. One individual person can certainly increase their efficiency and reduce their resource consumption for the same living standard, regardless of what goes on outside their sphere of consumption.

Case in point, if the automakers were somehow required to use today's off the shelf technology to quadruple the efficiency of the cars sold, it doesn't mean Americans who bought these cars would drive four times as much. At 12,000 miles per year per car, the average American is already spending 90 minutes a day in their car. There simply isn't enough remaining disposable time remaining in a day for them to increase that to 6 hours. Even in the worst case scenario on a national level, net energy use would only be able to go down assuming the population doesn't double immediately.
Jevon's paradox, just like oil production, just like economic growth, just like the amount of resources the world has available, all have boundaries. Limits. A sudden, huge paradigm shift in efficiency could offset this phenominon. Small, incremental improvements which are mere lip service to the concept of conservation get swallowed up in resource use elsewhere.
The unnecessary felling of a tree, perhaps the old growth of centuries, seems to me a crime little short of murder. ~Thomas Jefferson
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Re: Economic disparity greatest since 1928 - Is this an omen

Unread postby threadbear » Thu 29 Mar 2007, 23:07:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TreebeardsUncle', 'L')ooks like another depression like that is on the way. However, more protective measures are in place now to prevent such extreme crashes as in 29. Also, the government is more inclined to spend itself out of a depression now than in the early 30's under Hoover.

G


It won't be able to spend it's way out of this one though, Treebeards. The dollar will devalue and noone will buy US treasuries and US won't have a tax base to support it. I think it will look very much like Russia, post Glasnost, which was actually worse than our dirty thirties.
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Re: Economic disparity greatest since 1928 - Is this an omen

Unread postby deMolay » Sat 14 Apr 2007, 20:05:29

And threadbare like your Communist Ass Kissing Hero Trudeau said when the USA gets the sniffles Canada gets pneumonia...Better find your begging bowl...
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Re: Economic disparity greatest since 1928 - Is this an omen

Unread postby threadbear » Sat 14 Apr 2007, 21:47:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('deMolay', 'A')nd threadbare like your Communist Ass Kissing Hero Trudeau said when the USA gets the sniffles Canada gets pneumonia...Better find your begging bowl...


Excuse me?
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Re: Economic disparity greatest since 1928 - Is this an omen

Unread postby Polemic » Sat 14 Apr 2007, 22:12:53

... And when economic depression brings our living standards and income down to par with Mexico, the "New Deal" will be the North American Union.

Canada Free Press: Welcome to the No-Man's Land of the 'North Americanist'
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Re: Economic disparity greatest since 1928 - Is this an omen

Unread postby Polemic » Sat 14 Apr 2007, 22:21:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he Banff North American Forum documents state on more than one occasion of the need to narrow the gap between the average Mexican income and its northern neighbours and that this might be the single most important issue on the North American Agenda. The question is how will they do it? And how much will the average Canadian and American incomes suffer?


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Re: Economic disparity greatest since 1928 - Is this an omen

Unread postby gg3 » Sun 15 Apr 2007, 02:25:31

Beyond a certain level, economic disparity is also the greatest predictor of violent social unrest. The problem here is not with a few people being super-wealthy, it's with a large number being so poor that they have nothing to lose by going into revolt mode.

Thus the necessity for a homeopathic dose of socialism as a preventive measure: unemployment coverage, disability coverage, and even welfare, to assure a basic standard of living.
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Re: Economic disparity greatest since 1928 - Is this an omen

Unread postby Kingcoal » Sun 15 Apr 2007, 09:28:53

The way I look at it, instead of looking at the 20 century as the norm, look at it as a temporary boom. It was a boom fueled by cheap oil. The world economy has always been a trickle down affair. The wealth produced by cheap oil trickled down to the masses and they obtained some status they never had before. Egalitarian ideas blossomed and made people feel as though progress had been made towards providing a minimum standard of living for all.

Peak oil seems to be pushing the world back to the norm for humanity, which is where most of the wealth is concentrated among the very few. Pick any time before the oil age and you'll find that the average person was little more than a peasant, owning nothing and completely at the mercy of the wealthy.

I'm not a complete doomer however. It should be interesting to see how much the technology we've developed during the 20th century will help us.
"That's the problem with mercy, kid... It just ain't professional" - Fast Eddie, The Color of Money
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Re: Economic disparity greatest since 1928 - Is this an omen

Unread postby gg3 » Sun 15 Apr 2007, 21:17:25

Egalitarian ideas also blossomed in 1776 and for a time thereafter.

What was different: lower population, more land, the ability of individuals to be self-supporting and even self-sufficient.

As population grows, liberty as well as equality takes a hit.
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Re: Economic disparity greatest since 1928 - Is this an omen

Unread postby Chaparral » Sun 15 Apr 2007, 21:40:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gg3', 'A')s population grows, liberty as well as equality takes a hit.


That's a pretty good maxim for civilizational engineering: a foundation if you will. There might be enough data points scattered throughout our records of history to even put together a regression analysis with pop density as the independent variable and some quantitative measure of egalitarianism as the dependent variable.

Liberty, equality and justice are inversely proportional to population density? I like it!
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Reason Magazine: The economy is doing GRR-R-EAT!

Unread postby emersonbiggins » Thu 28 Jun 2007, 17:08:32

Beautiful quote below (emphasis mine). Nope, nothing to worry about, folks... [smilie=eusa_dance.gif] Good times are a-here!
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')ood Times, Bad Mood
What are Americans so grumpy about? Steve Chapman | June 28, 2007
Americans have many reasons for gloom. The war in Iraq has yet to turn around, we can't agree on a solution for illegal immigration, and Lindsay Lohan isn't cute anymore. We also have one reason to be happy: the economy. But right now, we're in the middle of a good funk, and we don't want to let any sunshine spoil it.
When it comes to the economy, the national mood is a combination of dissatisfaction and fear. A recent Gallup poll found that 66 percent of Americans think national economic conditions are "only fair" or "poor." And we remember the old proverb: It's always darkest just before it goes totally black. Fully 70 percent think the economy is getting worse, compared with 23 percent who discern signs of improvement.

In the midst of a recession, a depression or the Irish potato famine, our morose outlook would make sense. But at the moment, it seems to have no basis in reality.
Unemployment stands at 4.5 percent, down from the peak rate of 6.3 percent four years ago. The stock market is near record levels. Economic growth, which slowed in the first quarter, has since rebounded. Inflation is running below 3 percent. But to paraphrase the old country song, we've enjoyed as much of this as we can stand.

It's true that not all the economic news is golden. Some people are out of work or drowning in debt. Gas prices are painfully high. People who expected their home values to keep climbing, no matter what, are learning the definition of the term "bubble." Health care and college costs, however, seem permanently immune to the law of gravity.
But even in the best of times, some trends fall below average. Taken as a whole, the economy is plenty healthy. So why do we insist on seeing it as sickly?

One reason is that we've gotten so accustomed to prosperity that we take it for granted. From 1971 through 1997, the unemployment rate never once fell to the level we now enjoy. In the 1970s, annual inflation was frequently in double-digits. Recessions used to come along every four or five years, but since 1991, we've had only one downturn, a mild one back in 2001.
Another reason for the pessimism is that we mistake the few bad indicators for a broad trend. When gas prices soar, it's tempting to conclude that we're on the verge of economic turmoil so awful that we will soon be eating tree bark to stay alive. Never mind that other prices are reasonably stable, and that the national economy has absorbed higher fuel costs without too much strain.
In one sector where prices have been dropping, of course, the trend is taken as cause for panic: home sales. But what is bad for home sellers is good for home buyers. Most of us are both, which makes the whole phenomenon pretty much a wash.
...

(a blathering lack of) Reason article
"It's called the American Dream because you'd have to be asleep to believe it."

George Carlin
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Re: Reason Magazine: The economy is doing GRR-R-EAT!

Unread postby firestarter » Thu 28 Jun 2007, 17:30:27

Chapman's article was on the editorial page of the Chicago Trib earlier in the week(he's long time member of the paper's editorial board). He's billed as a libertarian, and well he might be, but it is a libertarianism of the Chicago School, monetarist variety. Perhaps if he came out of his ivory tower bubble (and stop kissing up to his bought and paid for peers/shills at the paper) he'd be able to more accurately comment on the the real state of things economic. On the other hand, he can't bite the corporate hands that feed him, now can he :wink:
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Re: Reason Magazine: The economy is doing GRR-R-EAT!

Unread postby seahorse » Thu 28 Jun 2007, 20:15:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ut what is bad for home sellers is good for home buyers. Most of us are both, which makes the whole phenomenon pretty much a wash.

The problem with this statement is, there are no buyers, thus, we have a problem for sellers. Thus, there can be no "wash." The only "wash" is the sellers and probably the rest of us being taken to the economic cleaners.
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Re: Reason Magazine: The economy is doing GRR-R-EAT!

Unread postby coyote » Thu 28 Jun 2007, 20:40:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gideon', 'L')ooking at "employment rate", seeing it's "low", and then concluding that the economy is doing great would be like an ER doc taking the pulse of a new arrival, determining it's 65, and concluding, "this man is healthy - doing great", notwithstanding the knife sticking out of his head.

Well put Gideon.
When this all tanks, I'm sure there will be lots of wailing of why didn't we see? Why was no one talking about this?
We're conditioned to ignore the knife -- the cause, as opposed to the symptom -- at least, until the pulse starts dropping.
Then it will come into sudden focus.
Lord, here comes the flood
We'll say goodbye to flesh and blood
If again the seas are silent in any still alive
It'll be those who gave their island to survive...
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