[coyote]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', 'T')o keep the old forecasts correct we ignore deep and ultra deep, calling it unconventional. Instead we put the new category on top of the old graph and call the new graph "all liquids".

[DantesPeak]

I think light sweet crude is already past peak (of 2005), but all liquids can continue to increase for a few years.

Essentially the conventional oil that is used to create biofuels, ethanol, oil sands, etc., is mostly double counted - since the oil used to produce alternatives is not excluded from all liquids.

Net liquids - excluding double counting - is probably close to a peak, but may proceed marginally higher over the next few years.

Also, really deep water drilling is not pure oil - but includes a substantial portion of oil equivilents. So I suppose technically all (or some part) can be excluded from conventional oil.

[Zardoz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', 'N')o, but it's completely new...we ignore deep and ultra deep, calling it unconventional.

[Starvid]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('coyote', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', 'T')o keep the old forecasts correct we ignore deep and ultra deep, calling it unconventional. Instead we put the new category on top of the old graph and call the new graph "all liquids".

[Starvid]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', 'I') think light sweet crude is already past peak (of 2005), but all liquids can continue to increase for a few years.

Essentially the conventional oil that is used to create biofuels, ethanol, oil sands, etc., is mostly double counted - since the oil used to produce alternatives is not excluded from all liquids.

Net liquids - excluding double counting - is probably close to a peak, but may proceed marginally higher over the next few years.

Also, really deep water drilling is not pure oil - but includes a substantial portion of oil equivilents. So I suppose technically all (or some part) can be excluded from conventional oil.

[DantesPeak]

I don't have the exact figures but in the US, production of ethanol is energy intensive. I am really not familar with how it is produced elsewhere, except in Brazil.

Not only does it take some form of oil to plant the seeds and work the fields to produce the corn for ethanol, it is shipped quite frequently by tanker truck to mixing locations - although the bulk of it does manage to travel most of the way by diesel powered rail.

Granted mostly natural gas is used in tar sands, and to produce fertilizer for corn, but that's less NG available to be used in condensates, etc., and less energy for other uses.

[coyote]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('coyote', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', 'T')o keep the old forecasts correct we ignore deep and ultra deep, calling it unconventional. Instead we put the new category on top of the old graph and call the new graph "all liquids".

[skiwi]

The experts

Higher oil prices coming - IEA

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')ONSUMERS face ever higher oil prices in coming decades as investment in new supply is too slow to meet growing demand, the International Energy Agency said today in its annual World Energy Outlook.

A barrel of crude may cost a nominal $US57.79 in 2010 or $US51.50 in real terms, up from a respective $US40 and $US35 expected last year, the IEA said. The nominal price may hit $US97.30 in 2030, up from $US65 expected last year...

It could even reach $US130.30 if investment falls short.

"We have revised upwards our assumptions for oil prices in this Outlook," said the adviser to 26 industrialised countries...

[smiley]

The interesting part is that they base their price production on a rise in oil production from 84 now to 116 in 2020.

That's a ~2.5% increase a year.

In the period 1995-2005 the annualised increase in oil production was just below 2% (BP figures).

Last year it was 1%

If these kind of production increases are really needed to maintain some sort of status quo, then we're in a world of trouble starting from now.

[AgentR]

You can probably shorten that view, if we don't reach 90mbpd by 2008 you know something is imminent. The price is high enough to justify any and all efforts to bring produceable crude to market. If we don't get it; it'll be because we can't.

[joewp]

And their past price prediction performance is just about as bad as the New York Knicks performance on the basketball court, terrible. I seem to recall a report last year that said this year would average in the 40 dollar range.

This is just pablum greared towards the masses to keep them consuming while the PTB finish up their survival plans.

Is an attitude still cynical if it's based on facts?

[nth]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR', 'Y')ou can probably shorten that view, if we don't reach 90mbpd by 2008 you know something is imminent. The price is high enough to justify any and all efforts to bring produceable crude to market. If we don't get it; it'll be because we can't.

[Zardoz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '.')..You tell me: Are we on the "undulating plateau" of global oil production, or not? Are we peaked, or is there a bit more to be wrung out of the sponge?...

[joewp]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '
')That's a frickin' plateau, folks. We're peaked.

[Tanada]

Playing with the numbers on your chart the supply grew by 4.26% from 2003-2004, 1.56% from 2004-2005, and only .828% from 2005-2006.

Clearly the room for growth is tightening right down to a nub, unless something huge happens 2007 will be very close to 2006. Next February we will know if it was above or below

When supply growth is only .8 % and demand growth is 2% clearly waste and/or small buyers are being squeezed out of the market. Increasing efficiencies will help, but when true decline sets in then efficiencies will be the only room for growth left. Well I guess technically I should say efficiencies and substitution, if you walk to the corner store instead of driving that is substitution in my book, and a lot healthier.

[sjn]

The IEA just need to add something new to the all liquids mix like they did last time to keep it going up... beer perhaps...

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sjn', 'T')he IEA just need to add something new to the all liquids mix like they did last time to keep it going up... beer perhaps...

[AirlinePilot]

There are already a lot of industries where the belt tightening cant go a whole lot farther without big consequences. I know, Im in one. Once the next price spike happens, all the airlines will be screaming bloody murder all over again. I predict that.

If we are at peak, I wonder how long before things start to slide? How long can we keep up the charade?