[BrazilianPO]

Is demand still going up? Then, this is a non-issue. Wake me up when demand starts to decrease on a annual basis, only then oil prices could begin a consistent down trend.

[firestarter]

The IEA said they same thing last year

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hursday, Jul 14, 2005,Page 12

Advertising Global oil demand is proving slower than expected this year because of lower-than-forecast demand growth rates in China and the US, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said yesterday.
The IEA revised down its forecast for global oil demand growth this year by 200,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 1.58 million bpd, 1.9 percent.

The reduced demand forecast in the IEA's monthly oil market report comes with benchmark US oil at record highs of more than US$61 a barrel.

[Wildwell]

Demand is going to go down? Yeah right.
China is to build up to 50 new airports and double its fleet of passenger jets over the next five years to meet the demand for travel from its growing middle class. The country's Civil Aviation Administration (CAAC) said $23bn (£12.2bn) had been earmarked for new hubs and regional airports, much of it to be financed by Chinese insurers flush with investment funds, or in joint ventures with Western companies.

CAAC official Zhao Hongyuan said: "All the projects will offer investment opportunities for investors at home and abroad." Britain's Arup Urban Design, Australia's Macquarie Infrastructure and Germany's airport operator Fraport are all expected to benefit.

China is the third biggest air-travel market after the US and Europe, flying 138m passengers last year. With plans to recruit 1,000 jet pilots a year, China aims to boost its fleet from around 860 to 4,000 by 2020 - anathema to ecologists as air traffic damages the ozone layer.
Telegraph

[nth]

demand is only reduced to what supplies are offering.

[SoothSayer]

>> China is to build up to 50 new airports and double its fleet of passenger jets over the next five years to meet the demand for travel from its growing middle class.

The country's Civil Aviation Administration (CAAC) said $23bn (£12.2bn) had been earmarked for new hubs and regional airports, much of it to be financed by Chinese insurers flush with investment funds, or in joint ventures with Western companies.

Wildwell, why not move/copy this post to start a new topic?
The implications are major.

[Heineken]

I seriously doubt that even a small fraction of those airports will ever be built. Not with the oil price at whatever astronomical level it will be at in five years.

Planning is one thing; doing is another.

The Chinese have foolishly opted to try to reproduce U.S.-scale infrastructure in their country, but they'll never get there. They're too late to the party.

[SoothSayer]

>> Planning is one thing; doing is another.

Err ... unless they KNOW they WILL have access to oil.

Perhaps they have already made contractual arrangments with Saudi and other suppliers?

Or perhaps they intend to put their expanding naval fleet to use at some stage?

If they DO get that fuel then someone else will have to do without.

If they DON'T get that fuel then they will be VERY annoyed.

Either way, China is going to be a problem for the West.

[nth]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'I') seriously doubt that even a small fraction of those airports will ever be built. Not with the oil price at whatever astronomical level it will be at in five years.

Planning is one thing; doing is another.

The Chinese have foolishly opted to try to reproduce U.S.-scale infrastructure in their country, but they'll never get there. They're too late to the party.

[Heineken]

Yes, China is proceeding with development as though the oil (and fresh water and other vital resources) will always be there. But then, so is the US. It's crazy. In my own county here in VA, a mostly rural county with growthist aspirations, there are all sorts of vast development projects in active planning. They are described weekly in the county newspaper, with no mention or consideration of the energy needs and costs.

A running giant cannot stop on a dime; even with warning, his forward momentum may carry him over a cliff.

[Dukat_Reloaded]

All those Asian countries are on the verge of collapase, that will soon bring down the price of oil greatly.

[oilluber]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dukat_Reloaded', 'A')ll those Asian countries are on the verge of collapase, that will soon bring down the price of oil greatly.

[Heineken]

A drop in the price of oil will lead to increased demand for oil and a return to high prices. There's no way out of this box.

[Dukat_Reloaded]

It will takes years for those countries to get back on their feet. Darn if someone was living the good life, consuming oil at $70, the costs slowly build up and the banks foreclose on that persons business and the person declares bankrupcy, if oil drops to $30, that person still won't be buying.

[wowpleasewakeupalready]

This is dated May 2006 - sorry if this has already been posted.


Oil Market Outlook

[killJOY]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')mple supply to 2015 Wood Mackenzie's forecast shows non-OPEC production has not peaked and, in fact, we expect it to increase until 2013 - eight more years of growth. Combined with projected gains from OPEC, supply can readily meet demand in the next ten years.

[TheTurtle]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('killJOY', '
')[by the way: URL FUNCTION!}

[wowpleasewakeupalready]

From what I hear, WoodMac is considered to be at the forefront in terms of energy analysis.

Sorry their long term report does not fit into your paradigm.

Instead of just hanging out of the window screaming, maybe you should jump.

[Zardoz]

According to the IEA's forecast, demand will rise to 86,000,0000 BPD in the fourth quarter of this year. Meanwhile, we've been stuck at a production plateau of 84,000,000 since the fourth quarter of 2004.

In other words, we'll know in December whether or not we're at the dreaded peak. Let's see if Santa brings us an additional 2,000,000 barrels a day. Otherwise, Wood Mackenzie is as clueless as everybody else.

[DantesPeak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 't')errorism and political instability, but we have used conservative outlooks that help account for such potential events.

[nth]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', 'A')ccording to the IEA's forecast, demand will rise to 86,000,0000 BPD in the fourth quarter of this year. Meanwhile, we've been stuck at a production plateau of 84,000,000 since the fourth quarter of 2004.

In other words, we'll know in December whether or not we're at the dreaded peak. Let's see if Santa brings us an additional 2,000,000 barrels a day. Otherwise, Wood Mackenzie is as clueless as everybody else.