[Typhoon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Trindelm', 's')o we could be one cold-snap away from an economic meltdown?

[Trindelm]

Not if the government keeps meddling with oil prices to keep them artificially low. Being left of center, even I am aware that there should be balance between government intervention and Laissez Faire (sp?).

[Typhoon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Trindelm', 'N')ot if the government keeps meddling with oil prices to keep them artificially low. Being left of center, even I am aware that there should be balance between government intervention and Laissez Faire (sp?).

[DamienJasper]

Then of course there's what Ruppert said about a meltdown just weeks away. Who really cares if we're not going to make it until Christmas?

[ubercynicmeister]

Welcome thomasjpaul!

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thomasjpaul', '.')..Is published on the 7th November. See: 2005.http://www.iea.org/Textbase/publication ... BS_ID=1540

The IEA (International Energy Agency) concluded in its Winter Outlook Report 2004 that “. . . global production of conventional oil will not peak before 2030 if the necessary investments are made.”

[rogerhb]

I like the president giving the oil companies old Army bases and congress giving them tax concessions to build new refineries and they are still not biting.

Still not prepared to "make the necessary investments".

[thomasjpaul]

Cheers Guys! :D

I'll tell you what prompted my question. Thiswas a reply given to an opposition MP by the UK Energy Minister about the government's estimate of when global production of conventional crude oil will peak (see below):

"The Government's assessment of the remaining lifespan of global oil reserves is set out in the Energy White Paper 2003 “Our energy future—creating a low carbon economy” (http://www.dti.gov.uk/energy/whitepaper/index.shtml). Paragraph 6.15 of the White Paper notes that"“Globally, conventional oil reserves are sufficient to meet projected demand for around 30 years, although new discoveries will be needed to renew reserves. Together with non-conventional reserves such as oil shales and improvements in technology, there is the potential for oil reserves to last twice as long”."This is consistent with the latest assessment by the International Energy Agency (IEA) in its 2004 World Energy Outlook. The IEA concludes that"“. . . global production of conventional oil will not peak before 2030 if the necessary investments are made.”"The Government remain committed to working with producers, consumers and the international community to improve the conditions for investment in the international oil sector, as well as implementing policies to maximise the economic recovery of the UK's own oil (and gas) reserves and to ease the UK economy away from power supplied primarily through fossil fuel supply. We are also supporting efforts to promote greater transparency in reporting of global oil reserves."

If the UK is committed to the Winter Energy Outlook, and the Winter Energy Outlook 2006 continues to predict a 2030 peak, it is unlikely that the British government will revise their estimates.

I think they are wrong to blindly follow what the IEA say: but the problem is that I can't find any other similarly respected organisation making oil predictions. If I did we could ask specifically about why the Minister uses one set of predictions and not the other. Can anyone help me?

[RdSnt]

I'm not sure why a UK report would include oil shale development. You don't have any oil shale there do you?
The significant oil shale that I know of is in the US west and whatever production comes from there will never make it out of the US, nor will it be a meaningful amount.

[Ngy]

Hey gang, my concern is in the amount of heating oil stored and being prepared for this winter. Are we ready for when we get a cold spell? Some say yes, others say we are no way near to being ready, but that is being kept hush hush. What ye say?

[thomasjpaul]

Shale is the UK governments concern because when they do their budget forecasts they have to take into account global conditions. Currently, based on this document which I now have sitting in front of me (unread as yet!) , the Uk gov't does not believe there is an impending peak in global production. If they did they woudl act very differently!

Winter in the UK: If it gets a cold as it was in 1986/7 or lower there are likely to be gas shortages - as gas demand is basicalyl inelastic during a cold winter. thsi will affact business most. If it gets much colder, as the MET office have indicated it might, it may affect electrictity generation. The National Grid's Winter Outlook Report is available here.Winter Outlook Report

[UncoveringTruths]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he IEA said Saudi Arabia would need almost to double current output of 10m b/d to meet the expectations of demand in 2030. But Mr Birol said the kingdom might muster the long-term political will only to produce just over half the extra barrels deemed necessary.

Iran and Iraq are also vital to ensuring adequate oil and natural gas supplies in the next 25 years. But both face political hurdles to achieving the necessary investment. Many Middle East countries fear that investing heavily in new oil supplies will deplete fields too quickly and cut revenues by depressing oil prices.

Mr Birol said: “We may end up with much less oil from the Middle East than we demand. There is substantial risk of substantially high oil prices if current investment in the Middle East is not stepped up substantially. “Such high oil prices would be an additional trigger for major consuming nations to introduce policies to save oil and look for alternative sources. If they don't, the global economy but mainly the economies of the consuming nations will suffer.”

[FoxV]

well at least they are making the new step of saying there are issues with oil supply by 2030.

however their 50% increase by 2030 doesn't even cover inflation. I think if Demand was 5mb/d more than supply (as they suggest in their report) you could probably add an extra "0" to that 50% (our pre Katrina supply/demand situation of +1mb/d gave us a 100% increase)

but as you say 'Truths, this is just more IEA jibbering

[nero]

I think this is progress. At least the IEA is no longer using Saudi Arabia as a plug factor to fill any possible gap that occurs in their supply and demand forecasts. Movement like this helps enormously in arguments with politicians or bureaucrats. Previously all these people had to do was say "Look, we trust the International Energy Agency and they say there isn't going to be a problem" and that would be the end of the discussion. Now the discussion continues.

[nth]

Why can't they just say that we will run out of oil around 2030?

That is what they are inferring... that without Middle East oil production doubling by 2030, we have to find alternatives or have massive demand destruction.

[frankthetank]

We have to 2030? Great...more time to get prepared.

I'll be an old man by then, so i'll let you youngsters grind me up into fuel to power your SUV.

NOT!

[IslandCrow]

They have moved a lot in the year. See the quote I that I took from one of their web pages:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he key assumptions underpinning the projections of the 2004 edition include:

GDP is assumed to grow worldwide by an average 3.2% per year over the period 2002 to 2030.

The world's population is assumed to expand by 1% per year, from 6.2 billion in 2002 to over 8 billion in 2030.

The average IEA crude oil import price is assumed to fall back from current highs to $22 (in year-2000 dollars) in 2006. It will remain flat until 2010 and then begin to rise steadily to $29 in 2030.

[Trindelm]

Warning?

I find this an optimistic prediction

[Grimnir]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Trindelm', 'I') find this an optimistic prediction

[aahala]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('frankthetank', 'W')e have to 2030? Great...more time to get prepared.

I'll be an old man by then, so i'll let you youngsters grind me up into fuel to power your SUV.

NOT!

[The_Virginian]

What is it April 1st already?

Will "they" manage us all the way down to the end?

At what time will "reality" set in, and all this "environmentalisim" and "Efficiency" be exposed as ineffective makeup that neither solves the problem, nor covers the wart.