[BabyPeanut]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KevO', 'h')ttp://www.curevents.com/vb/showthread.php?t=22803

[Liamj]

Can i ask a moderator to take this thread gazumper (Kev0) off to his own little fear factory? Believe this thread is about the IEA's latest spin, not h5n1.. damn doomers..

[Antimatter]

lol yeah...can we keep the bird flue banter to the bird flue thread in future?

[KevO]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KevO', 'I') would have sent this to the Bird Flu news thread but I cannot get it to open. Anyone else having the same problem?

[KevO]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BabyPeanut', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KevO', 'h')ttp://www.curevents.com/vb/showthread.php?t=22803

[clv101]

Or maybe it's because the bird flu crowd see that peak oil is the real threat and are using that platform to push their agenda whilst the peak oil crowd don't appreciate bird flu so don't even bother visiting the bird flu sites.

[KevO]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('clv101', 'O')r maybe it's because the bird flu crowd see that peak oil is the real threat and are using that platform to push their adgenda whilst the peak oil crowd don't apreciate bird flu so don't even bother visiting the bird flu sites.

[dunewalker]

As I understand the definition of "Peak Oil", it's the maximum rate of extraction, at I suppose a daily rate over some period of time, like one year. Currently that rate seems to be 84 million barrels per day or so and holding steady. If Bird Flu strikes anytime soon, it of course will be the cause of Peak Oil, as production would decline with reduced demand. Peak Oil is not necessarily related to the quantity of oil in the ground but rather is related closely to the demand for oil. If/when another appropriate energy source becomes cheaper than oil as the price of oil rises, then that itself would be the cause of Peak Oil, regardless of how many billion or trillion barrels of oil still exist on the planet. The IEA seems to ignore the function of oil price affecting demand. I doubt the world will want more oil @$100 per barrel than it does now at $65.

[Jake_old]

Hi woodcutter

Peak Oil is geographical, its the point at which we can extract the most oil at any time. Maybe in the future we will be able to extrat 100 million per day. I think PO is now but that is really a belief because there is no transparency in the industry. Demand exceeding supply is an economic problem and a recession will correct it.

When we hit the point of maximum possible extraction, economics becomes a religion and the laws of nature take control. There is a difference between a price spike due to economics and continual decline, year on year, of energy inputs into the economy.

Bird flu could cause massive recession/depression but ultimately we can recover until we reach peak at a later date. I am worried about H5N1, but am sure PO will happen.

Just editing to say: No materials are as energy dense as Oil and Gas.

[thorn]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FoxV', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he IEA estimates that there are roughly 10 trillion barrels of oil equivalent of conventional oil and gas in place and at least as much non-conventional oil.

[Desire]

This article gives a whole different spin to the IEA report.

[EnergySpin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Desire', '[')url=http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=13358]This article gives a whole different spin to the IEA report.[/url]

[grinchmob]

Part 1 of the following article says that the IEA acknowledges in a report that Hubbert was right about US production and that most non-OPEC countries have peaked. Then the IEA uses typical comments about investment and technology to suggest that continued energy resources will always be available.

So I guess if we invest enough money and look hard enough we can slide the date of peak production to the right as far as we want to. Of course! Why didn't somebody think of those solutions earlier! And all this time we thought conservation/reduced dependency was the way to go. I'm just glad I can relax now knowing that coorporate America and the government will save me from the effects of PO. It must be time to buy another SUV.

Is this IEA report old news? I do apologize if this has already been posted.

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=13358

Anybody have a link to the IEA report? “Resources to Reserves: Oil & Gas Technologies for the Energy Markets of the Future,” I would like to read it myself instead of just reading what resourceinvestor.com had to say about it.

[CARVER]

Money is not a problem, just print a $5 trillion dollar bill, takes hardly any energy. They should have said: we need to invest a huge amount of energy to create/extract more energy. Demand for energy is likely to rise just to get the same energy return. So even when oil production has not peaked, it could mean that oil production return minus oil production invested has peaked. In other words: is the global average EROEI of oil falling? Is global oil production return still growing faster than global oil invested for oil production? So it's likely that even before we reach the peak of oil production we will have less oil available (for things besides oil production).

[Starvid]

http://peakoil.net/IEA2005.html
http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=13358

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')ARIS (ResourceInvestor.com) -- The International Energy Agency (IEA) report, “Resources to Reserves: Oil & Gas Technologies for the Energy Markets of the Future,” has broken step with other oil bodies by directly addressing the concerns of “peak oil” theorists.

In the introductory paragraph Claude Mandil, the IEA’s executive director, wasted no time in examining the subject.

He said, “soaring oil prices have again spotlighted the old question. Are we running out of oil? The doomsayers are again conveying grim messages through the front pages of major newspapers. ‘Peak oil’ is now part of the general public’s vocabulary, along with the notion that oil production may have peaked already, heralding a period of inevitable decline.”

Yet Mandil dismissed the idea that this situation is worrisome by stating, “the IEA has long maintained that none of this is a cause for concern.”

[...]

What “peak oil” supporters might find even more strange, is the use of the Hubbert Curve within the report, which is the mountain-shaped curve, showing increasing then declining production. It was created by the former Shell geologist M.K. Hubbert, to illustrate the theory of “peak oil.”

In a special section entitled just “Peak Oil” the IEA actually present the theory to its clients. They sum up by saying that

[...]

The basic counter thrust of the IEA’s argument is that new technologies and increased investment can overcome any production inflection. But the level of investment that requires is truly astronomical. Repeating a figure they first used in the IEA World Energy Outlook report they estimate that the total necessary investment cost “for worldwide upstream operations and transport [of oil]” by 2030 will amount to “$5 trillion.”

That works out at roughly $564.5 million dollars a day, between now and 1 January 2030.

[...]

Indeed the report does throw up a great deal of questions: Questions of funding, or reserves and questions on the role of governments. But in doing so, has the IEA unwittingly opened a Pandora’s box of debate by answering its critics so directly?

[Sgs-Cruz]

Saying that $500,000,000 needs to be spent every day to 2030 prevent the peak from occuring is tantamount to admitting that it will occur by then.

There's no way that kind of money is being spent, nor will it be.

[jaws]

It's a slimy way of conceding to peak oil theory while claiming that they were right. Yes we have infinite energy and better technology and more investment can release that energy. However we have finite economic resources to invest and the lower the ROI goes the less sense it makes to keep investing in oil.

Peak oil is an economic phenomenon driven by geological factors.

[PWALPOCO]

So basically what they are saying is,

Dont worry , like we said , youre not doomed , PO isnt the end of the world as weve said from the start.

All you have to do is find $5 Trillion and youll be fine ! Im sure most problems can be solved if you just grab $5T to make that problem go away.

I tell you what , if everyone grabs their holdings of all those US$ that theyve been printing and handing out left right n center , theres enough money to survive 1.5 PO disasters ... we're saved !!


Paul

[JustinFrankl]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')et Mandil dismissed the idea that this situation is worrisome by stating, “the IEA has long maintained that none of this is a cause for concern.”

[elroy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t is one new 1500 MW nuclear reactor every five days