[BabyPeanut]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')url=http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000102&sid=aZ5kykgXhwno&refer=uk]Oil Little Changed After Rising on Unexpected U.S. Supply Drop (link)[/url]

By Will Kennedy and Gavin Evans

Nov. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil was little changed in New York after rebounding from a four-month low yesterday when the U.S. government reported an unexpected decline in oil supplies.

Stockpiles of crude oil fell 0.7 percent to 321.4 million barrels last week, the first decline since September, as imports slumped. Inventories had risen as International Energy Agency members supplied the U.S. with oil as part of a plan to moderate the impact of August's Hurricane Katrina on energy prices.

``Imports from IEA countries are almost completed,'' said Tetsu Emori, a strategist at Mitsui Bussan Futures Ltd in Tokyo. ``The demand-supply balance is a little tighter.''

[killJOY]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hat did he mean by "imports are almost completed"? Is the US self-sufficient again?

[aahala]

With the declaration the US would no longer import oil, future prices
on the NY Shoe Exchange were up sharply. Let the walking begin.

[Typhoon]

These emergency imports are indeed over. I fear that the market has been too optimistic about supply. The unseasonably warm weather over the Eastern U.S. is now turning into unseasonably cold weather. $70 per barrel, here we come!

[Cynus]

Just in time for a cold snap to hit the country!

[dukey]

cold weather has just hit the UK
after the last month or 2 being unseasonably warm

i have a feeling prices could very very easily go up significantly when these IEA 'loans' end. Quite scary

[Free]

For a native speaker like me it is easy to see that Etsu-San wanted to say the imports are "depleted" instead of "completed".

[elroy]

Well they were emergency strategic reserves, we wouldn't wanna ship it all over to the usa. Kinda defeats the purpose of 'reserves'.

[Dukat_Reloaded]

I don't see the colleration of colder weather increasing oil usage. I believe the colder the weather the less oil people will use because it will be too cold to bother leaving their homes. They will use more gas, but gas is not oil, and many people have sitched over to wood/pellet stoves, freeing up alot of the gas usage. There is nothing to worry about this winter and I see oil prices declining.

[Dukat_Reloaded]

And from the ponl report, we are still increasing oil production, so there is no need to worry.

[bobcousins]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dukat', 'I') don't see the colleration of colder weather increasing oil usage. I believe the colder the weather the less oil people will use because it will be too cold to bother leaving their homes. They will use more gas, but gas is not oil, and many people have sitched over to wood/pellet stoves, freeing up alot of the gas usage. There is nothing to worry about this winter and I see oil prices declining.

[Mesuge]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('elroy', 'W')ell they were emergency strategic reserves, we wouldn't wanna ship it all over to the usa. Kinda defeats the purpose of 'reserves'.

[Dukat_Reloaded]

Thanks bobcousins, as you can see oil has reached new lows again at $56US now. Now with gold going up, there is more economic uncertainity and that is forcing the price of oil down as well, economic growth is forcasted to be slower next year than this year which will ofcourse bring oil prices down futher.

[AlCzervik]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dukat', 'T')hanks bobcousins, as you can see oil has reached new lows again at $56US now. Now with gold going up, there is more economic uncertainity and that is forcing the price of oil down as well, economic growth is forcasted to be slower next year than this year which will ofcourse bring oil prices down futher.

[Cynus]

The US has also been tapping its own strategic reserve. Does anyone have the numbers on how much is being taken, and how much remains in the reserve, and how much longer it can plug the gap?

[killJOY]

Cynus, this article here talks about it. It's got a fifteen-part segment, so you'll have to dig around.

http://tinyurl.com/7d4v2$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hough the goal of 700 million barrels was reached just prior to Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, 16 million barrels have since been released as a result of the devastation in the gulf coast region. As of November 8, 2005, the SPR comprised 684.7 million barrels of oil, an equivalent to 56 days

[AirlinePilot]

At the very least we can assume that as soon as it becomes common "market" knowledge that these emergency imports are coming to an end the price of crude and gas will likely start back up. At what point also do we discontinue the SPR drain and fill it back up again? As I understand it, this takes oil off the world market while thats being done. On another thread here there was talk about the SPR being taken to 1 billion bbls, has anyone substantiated that as of yet?

[Cynus]

Or, having spent his first term filling the SPR, Bush could just release from it for the duration of his second term to keep oil prices low and mask the effects of PO.
Thanks for the info Killjoy.

[Mesuge]

Al> thanks for this post hurricane situation update..

The oil futures market current low score exactly shows how it can delay price signals in the most dangerous moment. If damage in the gulf is so extensive, strategic reserves from EU on hold this might end up as pretty ugly winter..

Just add some variable factors such as last minute outpricing of some part of the Chavezoil for Chinese or South American markets instead and the doom is looming..