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Has PO.com Changed?

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General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: Has PO.com Changed?

Unread postby radon » Mon 26 Dec 2011, 17:05:52

What may happen in the medium term is repricing. Suppose you have $20k budget for the car and $200k budget for the house. AE cars are more expensive than conventional ones - there are complaints in the relevant threads here that AE cars are too expensive and insecure.

Yet houses in remoter locations are becoming cheaper as commuting costs increase. So we may finish up with having to pay $50k for the car and $150k for the house that we are OK with, a total of $200k which is well within the limits of our aggregate budget - at some point a new equilibrium will be established, at least for a while. This could be just a matter of psychological adjustment that the vehicles are no longer that cheap in comparison to houses.
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Re: Has PO.com Changed?

Unread postby AgentR11 » Mon 26 Dec 2011, 17:30:00

Better answer, pay $5k for the car, $2k for the bicycle, and $90k for the house.
If you absolutely must commute some distance, get a scooter too, and use the car only for nasty weather commutes.
Its amazing how easy life gets when you jiggle the numbers like that.
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Re: Has PO.com Changed?

Unread postby ObiWan » Mon 26 Dec 2011, 18:23:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR11', '
')Its amazing how easy life gets when you jiggle the numbers like that.


Using less works great as a way to mitigate against higher costs. Commuting time is such a waste of time anyway, I am always stunned when people trade some significant chunk of their lifespans for sitting in a car, doing nothing but guiding it to a destination. Average American, 40 miles or less commute, that is probably 1/24th of your day wasted. If the average male lives 75 years, what is it worth to get those 3 years back and use them for something productive?
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Re: Has PO.com Changed?

Unread postby Ibon » Mon 26 Dec 2011, 23:49:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', '
')Ibon, I have to take issue with that statement. I think there will be price spikes that will price many poor people out of existence, indirectly or perhaps directly. We already see signs of that shaping up. For example, some Northeastern US states are cutting back on energy subsidies for the poor because they can no longer afford them. Some people could, and probably will, freeze to death this winter because of that. Or one could point to the huge inflation going on in food costs.



I am referring to the energy available to avoid a short term collapse. Also the energy available to enable one to adapt. Not all will.

As potentially cruel as it may be from an early 21st century perspective the assessment of survival of our modern society going forward is more accurate when you focus on how many will adapt and flourish and not on the percentage who will perish and fail to adapt.
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Re: Has PO.com Changed?

Unread postby davep » Tue 27 Dec 2011, 03:45:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', '.')..the assessment of survival of our modern society going forward is more accurate when you focus on how many will adapt and flourish and not on the percentage who will perish and fail to adapt.


I don't think what remains after a certain percentage fail to adapt and perish could be called "modern society" any more.
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Re: Has PO.com Changed?

Unread postby Pretorian » Tue 27 Dec 2011, 04:30:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', ' ')I think there will be price spikes that will price many poor people out of existence, indirectly or perhaps directly. We already see signs of that shaping up. For example, some Northeastern US states are cutting back on energy subsidies for the poor because they can no longer afford them. Some people could, and probably will, freeze to death this winter because of that.


All those people will have an option to move in together and /or heat a small part of their house instead. There is no need to spend public funds to heat a 2000 sq ft house in order to keep one old ass warm and toasty. There are sweaters and warm socks also.
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Re: Has PO.com Changed?

Unread postby Ibon » Tue 27 Dec 2011, 06:40:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('davep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', '.')..the assessment of survival of our modern society going forward is more accurate when you focus on how many will adapt and flourish and not on the percentage who will perish and fail to adapt.


I don't think what remains after a certain percentage fail to adapt and perish could be called "modern society" any more.


Yes but it will fall more in line with the historical mean since human "civilization" began. And also more in line with the fitness and adaptability curve you see with our fellow creatures on the planet.

Cheap fossil fuels have not only allowed indulgences in consumption but also in expectations of survival.

I often tell my students to imagine a Harpy Eagle perched on a Ceiba tree looking down upon human civilization. Can he distinguish from the crowd the capitalist from the social worker? The environmentalist from the Monsanto salesman?

In framing our species overshoot in these terms I have often been labeled misanthropic when all I am trying to do is expose the hypocrisy of where we apply our morals.

This last comment is just a flavor or reminder of questions that were typically raised several years ago before PO.com changed...... in keeping with the theme of this thread :)
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Re: Has PO.com Changed?

Unread postby Heineken » Tue 27 Dec 2011, 15:56:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pretorian', 'A')ll those people will have an option to move in together and /or heat a small part of their house instead. There is no need to spend public funds to heat a 2000 sq ft house in order to keep one old ass warm and toasty. There are sweaters and warm socks also.

Pretorian, many of the people I'm referring to live in small apartments in urban areas. And sweaters and socks only go so far. Lots of old and sick folks are found frozen to death wrapped in layer after layer of clothes. Or the cold doesn't kill directly, but contributes to debilitation.

If an entire house isn't heated, you run the risk of frozen and ruptured water lines.

I suppose poor suburbanites could assemble in chosen houses and huddle there. Quite a few would die in the fights that would break out, the struggles over a crust of bread. Hardly seems practical.

You're quite right that such things will happen, but that's getting into collapse mode.
Last edited by Heineken on Tue 27 Dec 2011, 16:03:33, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Has PO.com Changed?

Unread postby Heineken » Tue 27 Dec 2011, 16:01:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', 'I') am referring to the energy available to avoid a short term collapse. Also the energy available to enable one to adapt. Not all will.
As potentially cruel as it may be from an early 21st century perspective the assessment of survival of our modern society going forward is more accurate when you focus on how many will adapt and flourish and not on the percentage who will perish and fail to adapt.

OK. But when you said "the basic needs of survival" I thought you were referring to everyone, more or less.

When we have a dieoff because everyone can't adapt, that doesn't meet my criteria for the basic needs for survival. To me the basic needs for survival apply to the current and future population base.

No way large parts of it are going to survive, and the proximate cause will be resource depletion including energy.
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Re: Has PO.com Changed?

Unread postby Heineken » Tue 27 Dec 2011, 16:11:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', '
')
This last comment is just a flavor or reminder of questions that were typically raised several years ago before PO.com changed...... in keeping with the theme of this thread :)


Ibon, I guess what I was referring to most in my OP was my perception of a change in the "spirit," tone, and communicativeness of people here. If, as you (and others) imply, there's been a change in the content of participation, that gets added on to my complaint.

I recall that the sense of community was so strong here that some people actually wanted to join up and form intentional communities!

But as I said in the OP, maybe it's I who have changed. I was away for a long time, some of the best people I knew are gone, people aren't as enthusiastically responsive . . . I felt like a stranger here and still do.
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Re: Has PO.com Changed?

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Tue 27 Dec 2011, 16:18:13

Steve, you have a lot more friends here than you know. People are just too damned busy.
Do you recall the effort a certain PO friend made to try to help you a couple of years ago?
Did you get good advice? Did you follow it? That's friendship too, you know?
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Re: Has PO.com Changed?

Unread postby Ibon » Tue 27 Dec 2011, 16:52:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', '
')Ibon, I guess what I was referring to most in my OP was my perception of a change in the "spirit," tone, and communicativeness of people here. If, as you (and others) imply, there's been a change in the content of participation, that gets added on to my complaint.

I recall that the sense of community was so strong here that some people actually wanted to join up and form intentional communities!

But as I said in the OP, maybe it's I who have changed. I was away for a long time, some of the best people I knew are gone, people aren't as enthusiastically responsive . . . I felt like a stranger here and still do.


Even though I am far less active I still check in a couple of times a week. I guess a lot of the long time members still do as well. Like SeaGypsy says many of us are fully engaged in time consuming pursuits. I post mostly when I have these pauses in my routine (I am visiting family for the holidays at the moment and am away from Panama) and even then infrequently unless something compels me.

Not wanting so sound too judgmental to the site, one of the reasons I don't post is that the content of the threads on the forums has degraded substantially. I share your comments of your OP. Maybe this site reflects the times, perhaps also fluctuates just like ones own life. I am not always switched on in full creativity mode. There are moments of activity, moments of lucidity, moments of active community engagement and then there are those funky down times.

This site is not particularly inspiring lately but that does not mean that events won't resuscitate it as has been mentioned. That is why I still check in and post from time to time. If Ludi was still posting she would give me a hard time for being elitist. I do confess I have a low tolerance for mediocrity!

Don't be disheartened. Sea Gypsy's last post a case in point.
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Re: Has PO.com Changed?

Unread postby Heineken » Tue 27 Dec 2011, 17:59:43

Thanks, Gypsy and Ibon. You make good points as always.

Not having enough time is a modern disease. We live longer than our forebears, but have less time to live.

The older I get, the shorter the days get. They positively whirl by.
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Re: Has PO.com Changed?

Unread postby Heineken » Tue 27 Dec 2011, 20:31:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', 'S')teve, you have a lot more friends here than you know. People are just too damned busy.
Do you recall the effort a certain PO friend made to try to help you a couple of years ago?
Did you get good advice? Did you follow it? That's friendship too, you know?


Of course I remember. You made a significant effort to help me, and I'll never forget that. The fact that I was unable to capitalize on that help is my own responsibility. However, things turned out well in the end. In the end, we can only truly help ourselves.

Indirectly, I'm married today to the person I wedded because of you! And she's a dream . . .

Peakoil.com has affected my life, profoundly.
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Re: Has PO.com Changed?

Unread postby Pretorian » Wed 28 Dec 2011, 02:24:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'P')retorian, many of the people I'm referring to live in small apartments in urban areas. And sweaters and socks only go so far. Lots of old and sick folks are found frozen to death wrapped in layer after layer of clothes. Or the cold doesn't kill directly, but contributes to debilitation. ...
You're quite right that such things will happen, but that's getting into collapse mode.

Moving in together to avoid cold is hardly " the collapse mode" . Also I don't think it would cost much to have water dripping all winter long, or to have the house heated at 35F . In any case scenario, if you can't afford to heat your house, why would you own or rent a property in that climate anyway? There are plenty of places in USA and world in general which hardly require any heating whatsoever.
Bottom line is that there are multiple opportunities for anybody to escape the cold in any part of USA. I've never heard of an unheated jail for example. Why would a random taxpayer have to pay ungodly amounts of money in order to warm up every codger individually is beyond me. Isn't spending $ 300-350 000 000 000 per year, every goddamn year , in order to give these coffin-dodgers an extra month or two of life is bad enough?
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Re: Has PO.com Changed?

Unread postby ErrantOlafr » Wed 28 Dec 2011, 14:05:07

I used to be on here quite a bit under an old account. The site isn't what it was at one point, but there are still some really good posts on things happening and what people are doing with their daily lives. I've sort of come back to read about and participate in those things. Energy and oil issues aren't going away.
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Re: Has PO.com Changed?

Unread postby Pops » Wed 28 Dec 2011, 14:23:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'I') recall that the sense of community was so strong here that some people actually wanted to join up and form intentional communities!


I miss that as well.

I think our common concerns about how things would change when oil supplies peaked outweighed our opinions back then.

Now, the arguments over details kill much of the commonality, especially the assertion that oil has peaked and everything is fine.
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Re: Has PO.com Changed?

Unread postby Pretorian » Wed 28 Dec 2011, 21:27:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'I') recall that the sense of community was so strong here that some people actually wanted to join up and form intentional communities!


I miss that as well.



What happened is that doom and gloom was much closer in those days for many posters. Now, it's decades away. We all will be dead by that time, surely not worth it to put up with our differences on a daily basis. Gotta burn some oil while it lasts! [smilie=adios.gif]
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Re: Has PO.com Changed?

Unread postby Ibon » Wed 28 Dec 2011, 22:26:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pretorian', '
')
What happened is that doom and gloom was much closer in those days for many posters. Now, it's decades away. We all will be dead by that time, surely not worth it to put up with our differences on a daily basis. Gotta burn some oil while it lasts! [smilie=adios.gif]


This is exactly what happened during the time when Reagan was president, the oil embargo over, a new dawn in America and the birth of yuppie egotism.....

I mentioned in an earlier post that today I am experiencing somewhat of a deja vu to those times. I acknowledge that consequences on the short term was what gave me a "high" on this site several years ago. Not from cruelty of seeing folks suffer but as a force of disruption to a damaging status quo. Today I seriously doubt that these consequences will have the catalyst affect I was so hopeful for just a few years ago.
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Re: Has PO.com Changed?

Unread postby Heineken » Wed 28 Dec 2011, 22:56:37

Right now what we're facing more than environmental or energy-related collapse is FINANCIAL collapse. That's the immediate threat right now. It could be a catalyst of its own kind, Ibon.
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