[Cloud9]

I spent New Years Eve with some guys and gals that own and operate their own small businesses. The optimism is all gone. They are struggling taking jobs with no profit margins just to keep what is left of their work force working. We are all boomers and our parents went through the Great Depression. There was considerable talk about the strategies they employed to get through. It was noted that the depression era people never borrowed any money. They paid cash for everything they owned. They never discarded anything. Worn out equipment was rebuilt. Parts were cannibalized. Nothing was wasted.

These guys are a breath away from shutting down. That is collapse for them.

[Heineken]

As I've said before, doom happens one person at a time.

[vision-master]

The old way of thinking is a unenlightened one that focuses on fear, flight or frozen. The material world.....

There is a division in collective consciousness here, many are hanging onto the old world while a few are moving towards the new world, a new way of thinking, a new way of living, yet born from the earliest teachings for mankind.

The camp here consists mainly of believers in evolution or religious doctrine.

The Time has Come
For
Things to Bend

That which Was
Will be
Forever Changed

Those that were
Shall
Never be the same

vm

[WildRose]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')Peakers tend to worry about those global inter-dependencies of production. They worry that higher transport costs will render obsolete "states" of dependency/complexity (world-dispersed manufacturing of assemblies/subassemblies/final products and associated, heretofore effective JIT systems) that are currently built into and support world-trade and financial systems. As I see it, this is not the Big Problem. We must not forget that this global manufacturing system has been developed because local/regional resourses have been depleted. Not just energy and building materials are depleting (high-quality coal seams, concentrated ores, giant old-growth forests) but arable lands, labor pools, dumps, etc. That is why we consider the Arctic for oil, the Antarctic for fish, and the Moons of Saturn for Methane. The Big Problem as I see it is that there won't be anything to localize when we need to.

[Ibon]

Pstarr, I want to second that, you summed it up very very well.

[eXpat]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', 'P')starr, I want to second that, you summed it up very very well.

[Heineken]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', '
')There is a division in collective consciousness here, many are hanging onto the old world while a few are moving towards the new world, a new way of thinking, a new way of living, yet [one] born [out of] the earliest teachings [of] mankind.

[SeaGypsy]

We tend to affirm normality and stability when we invest ourselves in the institutions abiding therin. Marriage, raising 'responsible' children, signing a mortgage, buying a car, choosing a career. Opting out of these institutions altogether or in part is a choice some make on the basis of their doubt of normality and stability. Most do the opposite and cast aside 'youthfull thinking' to cast their lot with the mainstream, regardless of their intellectual awareness of what is happening to their planet and their grandkid's future.

My vote goes to those who make their own way and retain free thought. Marry if you want to, sign a loan if you like, buy that jeep/ yacht/ farm, if you can do so while retaining your sense of personal integrity. But don't lie to yourself.

[Heineken]

Chris, thou, I sense the whisper to me in thy breath.

I'm still a free thinker. Enuff so that my wife thinks I'm crazy at times!

This evening she gave me one of her patented 1-hour massages. She could do this professionally, and we have seriously considered switching her from medicine to massage. All she'd need is an eight-month course and a Virginia license. I'm certain she's loads better than many graduates already. Ah the joys of marriage!

I've suffered a great deal. I deserve this.

I'll have to post some of our wedding pics.

[SeaGypsy]

I utilize the Law of the Prophets when it comes to marriage;
The one who accurately can predict the future, is always above those who have no clue.
The Prophet may well be crazy, but when he speaks of what will come, better listen.
So far in my marriage, fortune has been on my side.

[Cog]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'C')og, how do you define collapse? For me true collapse must be accompanied by at least partial population die-off. No die-off is taking place. Large parts of the world---Asia, South America---ARE booming. What we have right now is a pretty big case of indigestion. Not collapse. Maybe a PRELUDE to collapse, at most.

[Heineken]

I don't think the money matters that much, Cog. You're talking economic collapse. Money is ultimately just paper, highly manipulable stuff. What matters are things like resources, environment, population, climate, agriculture---the health of our life-support system and our ability to continue exploiting it. Those things are much harder, or impossible, to manipulate or fake. As long as the resource base and environmental conditions allow it, growth (as measured by its ultimate yardstick, population growth) will continue, no matter what happens to fiscal issues. On Peak Oil when we talk about collapse we usually mean the collapse of civilization, and dieoff, caused in particular by the decline in fossil fuels but also by declines in other resources like topsoil and water, plus eco-disasters like global warming, plus the possibility of nuclear-tipped resource wars, plus a sort of roving universal gang warfare. A much deeper, vastly more profound type of collapse than what you're describing.

I remember years ago, soon after I joined, many people here seemed to be picking 2012, give or take a year, as the collapse year (the sort of collapse I described). Well, we're there now and it ain't happening. Yet.

[SeaGypsy]

The way I see it the big change in the next cycle is in distribution of scarcer resources, rather than in them suddenly running out. The biggest problem sectors are in ELM affected countries followed by high resource turnover/ service/ labour economies with 1st world living standards. In short, those already enriched and those in the process of becoming enriched, with the expectation of riches at least.

Globalism has all but destroyed the dominance of western labour market value. The rug has been pulled out from under our high consuption lifestyles and left us mostly maxing out the credit card to maintain the illusion of righteous wealth.

Our competitor's labour forces have much lower expectations and are starting from a much lower base, allowing capital to maximize return on investment. There are still areas of the economy requiring local workforces, but in general western dominance is well and truly on the slippery slide of the downslope and therefore so will our lifestyles be, at least in terms of consumption. The biggest real capital shift is in these directions. Much of the rest is theater, achieving not much more than maintaining some semblance of the status quo.

A boom in the west would require way more resources than anywhere else, thereby cannot happen by honest means. We can create debts for 1000 generations, wars around the world, nasty political/ economic manipulation, every trick imaginable will not continue our consumption much longer. Reality is it's just not going to happen. The shift is already fully underway and the past is not coming back.

[Cog]

The deal is that countries which export their oil to the USA will not want to be paid with dollars that are worthless. They will want something of real value. So yes, economics do matter when it comes to acquiring resources like oil. Right now you are seeing the middle class being decimated by loss of jobs, increasing energy costs, increasing commodity costs, and wages that are stagnant or decreasing. At some point, you have no middle class. Just slaves working for whatever they can get. That time is now for a lot of people. Without a middle class, you get something very much like collapse, at least for those at that level. If you re homeless and hungry, even though surrounded by wealth, you might as well live in dystopia land. You have your own personal collapse.

But it goes much deeper than that with regards to the US economy. Think about interstate highways, JIT delivery, and the creation of suburbia. All of these are inventions that depended on cheap oil. You can't un-invent them and have the American economy function. You also can't pay for a real resource like oil with worthless dollars. That oil will go elsewhere and be exchanged for something of real value.

I know what most people mean when they talk about collapse. Mad Max or some version of that. Yes, we will get there when our economic system ceases to function in a way that permits us to acquire the oil we need to keep it going. There will be considerable violence before it all collapses. Perhaps even nuclear war for all the good it will do.

[Loki]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')n Peak Oil when we talk about collapse we usually mean the collapse of civilization, and dieoff, caused in particular by the decline in fossil fuels but also by declines in other resources like topsoil and water, plus eco-disasters like global warming, plus the possibility of nuclear-tipped resource wars, plus a sort of roving universal gang warfare. A much deeper, vastly more profound type of collapse than what you're describing.

[Novus]

The main way PO.com has changed is that the forum as a whole just feels behind the curve and out of the loop what is going on in the world. I mean talking about $100+ oil in 2003 was a bold statement. That has come to pass but what is the next bold statement. There really hasn't been one since $200 oil never panned out.


It is the Alex Jones of the world have been venerated in the post 2008 world. The world is turning into a Prison Planet just he said it was. NDAA is not just a tin foil theory. Martial law is becoming reality. The Matt Savinar post USSR style collapse is just not happening not mention Matt has not said anything in years while while Alex Jones gets louder by the day. If you really want to be at the head of the curve look up Benjaman Fulford he is the next big thing.

[Daniel_Plainview]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cog', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'C')og, how do you define collapse? For me true collapse must be accompanied by at least partial population die-off. No die-off is taking place. Large parts of the world---Asia, South America---ARE booming. What we have right now is a pretty big case of indigestion. Not collapse. Maybe a PRELUDE to collapse, at most.

[Cog]

I actually followed the Simpson-Bowles bi-partisan commission plan to try to fix things in the US, at least as far as deficits go, since they observed that deficits would eventually lead to disaster. Of course none of their recommendations were followed since it would involve real pain and no politician would vote for that. A snippet follows:

http://www.mysanantonio.com/business/ar ... z1gWTEZC60

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f the country doesn't act, the financial markets eventually will raise the cost of credit, likely turning on a dime and moving quickly without warning, as is happening in Europe. If that happens, the cost of everything from credit card debt to home mortgages — along with cost of borrowing for the country — will shoot up and the U.S. will experience “a recession like you've never seen before,” Bowles said.

Simpson said commission members differed on when they thought the tipping point might come, but no one thought it would be more than two years away.

“The markets will force us to do this at some time,” Bowles said. “You just can't live beyond your means forever.”