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Has PO.com Changed?

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General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: Has PO.com Changed?

Unread postby ObiWan » Thu 22 Dec 2011, 11:13:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', ' ')Let's say it's going to take 100 years for our civilization to truly crash. That's still just one lifetime!


But most likely not the lifetime of anyone posting here. And when "crash" can be applied to the difference between 2005 and the end of 2008, say, then what does a "crash" consist of a century from now? Lest we forget, Ehrlich was also the one who claimed all sorts of calamities happening prior to 2000 because of the teeming horde of humanity with 3 billion people or so. And here we sit at 7 billion...still waiting...headed to 9....and the sky...well...it is still there.
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Re: Has PO.com Changed?

Unread postby AgentR11 » Thu 22 Dec 2011, 11:39:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'B')ut I don't find even the Whimper boring. Let's say it's going to take 100 years for our civilization to truly crash. That's still just one lifetime!


Hard to sell books to noobies by claiming, "the civilized world is DOOOOMED, but next year will be almost as comfortable as this year".
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Re: Has PO.com Changed?

Unread postby davep » Thu 22 Dec 2011, 11:41:54

The slower crash model allows those of us who were talking about mitigation strategies five years ago to plant loads of forest gardens. And hopefully they'll have time to grow before TSHTF.
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Re: Has PO.com Changed?

Unread postby vision-master » Thu 22 Dec 2011, 12:05:38

I'm on the slower crash - it's called aging. lsol
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Re: Has PO.com Changed?

Unread postby Heineken » Thu 22 Dec 2011, 16:45:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', 'I')'m on the slower crash - it's called aging. lol


Hey, that would make a good signature, Vision!
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Re: Has PO.com Changed?

Unread postby Heineken » Thu 22 Dec 2011, 16:48:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ObiWan', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', ' ')Let's say it's going to take 100 years for our civilization to truly crash. That's still just one lifetime!


But most likely not the lifetime of anyone posting here. And when "crash" can be applied to the difference between 2005 and the end of 2008, say, then what does a "crash" consist of a century from now? Lest we forget, Ehrlich was also the one who claimed all sorts of calamities happening prior to 2000 because of the teeming horde of humanity with 3 billion people or so. And here we sit at 7 billion...still waiting...headed to 9....and the sky...well...it is still there.


Ehrlich underestimated the resilience of the earth, and of people.

However, I still believe he was right as to fact, even if he was wrong as to timing. At the center of almost all our problems is too many people drawing on too few resources, and ultimately this will prove our undoing.
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Re: Has PO.com Changed?

Unread postby thuja » Thu 22 Dec 2011, 16:52:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', '
')
Yes, that's well-said.

Outside of the nuclear-war possibility, I've always been a slow-doomer, a believer in what Paul Ehrlich called "the Whimper" (as opposed to "the Bang").

But I don't find even the Whimper boring. Let's say it's going to take 100 years for our civilization to truly crash. That's still just one lifetime!


Yeah I agree with you. What? A hundred year crash not good enough for ya? It'll be plenty awful...unimaginable probably in a few decades. But fast crash always played well for a good hundred page argument.
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Re: Has PO.com Changed?

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Thu 22 Dec 2011, 17:10:59

Heini, I have realized that a slow crash is actually of great personal benefit to me.
3 years ago I was considering all manner of piracy, canoe journeys to the last islands of civility etc.
Right now I am riding the wave of sifting investment bases under transition.
All very interesting...
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Re: Has PO.com Changed?

Unread postby MD » Thu 22 Dec 2011, 17:24:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', 'H')eini, I have realized that a slow crash is actually of great personal benefit to me.
3 years ago I was considering all manner of piracy, canoe journeys to the last islands of civility etc.
Right now I am riding the wave of sifting investment bases under transition.
All very interesting...


Enjoy the ride!
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Re: Has PO.com Changed?

Unread postby ObiWan » Thu 22 Dec 2011, 19:11:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', '
')
Ehrlich underestimated the resilience of the earth, and of people.

However, I still believe he was right as to fact, even if he was wrong as to timing. At the center of almost all our problems is too many people drawing on too few resources, and ultimately this will prove our undoing.


And so have others, down through the centuries, as echoes of the last claims of collapse are superseded by more grown, new technologies, more people, better ways of doing things, etc etc.

So let us begin the next round of underestimating, and our children can claim that mining the moon will be the downfall of mankind, with what JIT systems barely able to manage the population...of 10 billion people....

Resource depletion has been scaring people since people were invented. I agree with you, and certainly don't assume it will stop any time soon. The scaring part. Or the running out part.
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Re: Has PO.com Changed?

Unread postby ObiWan » Thu 22 Dec 2011, 23:17:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'I') take it you don't consider failing aquifers, depleted fisheries, exhausted mineral resources and overstuffed planetary sinks scary? You must have a better prescription than is available to the rest of us. 8)


Of course these things are scary. They have been scary as long as there have been people to be afraid of them. Sometimes we get good results from these types of fear, Clean Air and Water Acts, Endangered Species, all sorts of good things have come from fear mongering. Do you seriously think GM would have been a money pit like the Volt, or Nissan the Leaf, if there wasn't the same sort of fear somewhere in the background, driving progress forward?

Fear is good. We need people generating more of it. Keep up the good work, and I recommend you taking your point of view national. Can you start a non-profit of some sort, and propagate this fear as far as possible? There might be some way a few of us can take advantage of the results, make a little coin.
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Re: Has PO.com Changed?

Unread postby peripato » Fri 23 Dec 2011, 07:32:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'O')r have I?

I went away from here for a couple of years. Have been participating again for about a month.

But the site seems half-dead to me now. Posts go unanswered. People aren't as active, or reactive. There's less humor, less passion. Maybe I'm wrong, but that's how it seems. Could be I've become a stranger.

"You can't go home again." ---Thomas Wolfe


PO.com has changed...

Because Fast Crashers were wrong.

And yeah- its more boring because Slow Crashing is more boring.

I think this verdict is a bit premature. :) We haven't witnessed a persistent decline in worldwide crude oil production yet.

Heineken, it's nice to see an insightful voice from the heroic days of PO.com posting regularly again.
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Re: Has PO.com Changed?

Unread postby Heineken » Fri 23 Dec 2011, 23:47:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', 'H')eini, I have realized that a slow crash is actually of great personal benefit to me.
3 years ago I was considering all manner of piracy, canoe journeys to the last islands of civility etc.
Right now I am riding the wave of sifting investment bases under transition.
All very interesting...


Me too, Gypsy. In my case, oil stocks and pipeline MLPs. Doing QUITE well.
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Re: Has PO.com Changed?

Unread postby Heineken » Fri 23 Dec 2011, 23:49:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('peripato', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'O')r have I?

I went away from here for a couple of years. Have been participating again for about a month.

But the site seems half-dead to me now. Posts go unanswered. People aren't as active, or reactive. There's less humor, less passion. Maybe I'm wrong, but that's how it seems. Could be I've become a stranger.

"You can't go home again." ---Thomas Wolfe


PO.com has changed...

Because Fast Crashers were wrong.

And yeah- its more boring because Slow Crashing is more boring.

I think this verdict is a bit premature. :) We haven't witnessed a persistent decline in worldwide crude oil production yet.

Heineken, it's nice to see an insightful voice from the heroic days of PO.com posting regularly again.


Thanks very much, Peripato. Maybe I'll get the habit back.

And you're right, the Slow Crash could become the Fast Crash very quickly.
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Re: Has PO.com Changed?

Unread postby Heineken » Fri 23 Dec 2011, 23:52:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ObiWan', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'I') take it you don't consider failing aquifers, depleted fisheries, exhausted mineral resources and overstuffed planetary sinks scary? You must have a better prescription than is available to the rest of us. 8)


Of course these things are scary. They have been scary as long as there have been people to be afraid of them. Sometimes we get good results from these types of fear, Clean Air and Water Acts, Endangered Species, all sorts of good things have come from fear mongering. Do you seriously think GM would have been a money pit like the Volt, or Nissan the Leaf, if there wasn't the same sort of fear somewhere in the background, driving progress forward?

Fear is good. We need people generating more of it. Keep up the good work, and I recommend you taking your point of view national. Can you start a non-profit of some sort, and propagate this fear as far as possible? There might be some way a few of us can take advantage of the results, make a little coin.


This gets my Snotty-Post-of-the-Month Award.
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Re: Has PO.com Changed?

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Sat 24 Dec 2011, 00:32:32

FL said something aboyut the ongoing dialogue maturing over time, resulting in a different experience here altogether than a couple of years back.

Fast crashers have indeed been left with egg on their faces, most have disappeared from here. Slow crashers have always been the more staid and studied posters here.
I guess their average ages to be mid fifties. Peak oil is not central to the economic dialogue of our time, despite being at the very heart of the reasons for our calamity.

This is a situation where just knowing about it does not necessarily help the knower. In many cases ignorance would be preferable. Yet what has happened here over the last few years is an epiphany. I believe most long timers here have come through the entire Kubler-Ross grief process and out the other side with great benefit from the knowlege of peak oil and partly from the brainstorm of po.com.

For newbies showing up here it is far from easy to grasp the depths of transitition people here have gone through, alone and together as an online community.

For these reasons it is important that new arrivals are engaged with sensitively, that we do not end up as a kind of closed shop. There is an immense amount of help available on this site for those who are ready to take the plunge. Peak Oil is the issue of our times, it's centrality is not going anywhere any time soon. Even though I am flat out busy these days I still feel to contribute something here. It would be really nice to see some more of the old posters pop back in from time to time at least.
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Re: Has PO.com Changed?

Unread postby ObiWan » Sat 24 Dec 2011, 10:09:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', '
')This gets my Snotty-Post-of-the-Month Award.


Not snotty at all. Fear can be a wonderful motivator, seems like if someone can only be a pessimist (or a troll), that desire could be put to a good use for humanity. And there certainly isn't anything wrong about making a few bucks on the predictability of both the initial fear mongering, or the expected consequence.
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Re: Has PO.com Changed?

Unread postby Ibon » Sat 24 Dec 2011, 13:47:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', ' ')I believe most long timers here have come through the entire Kubler-Ross grief process and out the other side with great benefit from the knowlege of peak oil and partly from the brainstorm of po.com.


I agree. I would add that there is probably a significant percentage of participants who found that the knowledge became a noose around their necks once the fast crash scenario didn't come to pass. Like the topic of climate change knowledge tends to exasperate instead of liberate.

Is it mentally healthy to have your psyche remain engaged in Intractable, entrenched and unresolvable macro systemic problems creating a dark cloud over this brief privilege of sentient life on this planet?

Peak oil knowledge has now entered a dormant part of my psyche, kind of like mushroom buds in the dry forest floor, waiting to swell once again if and when rain falls upon the ignorant collective

Until then why burden yourself?
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Re: Has PO.com Changed?

Unread postby Heineken » Sat 24 Dec 2011, 13:55:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', '
')Yet what has happened here over the last few years is an epiphany. I believe most long timers here have come through the entire Kubler-Ross grief process.


I have to agree that what I've learned here, and in related materials (e.g., Heinberg's books), has been the most important knowledge I've ever gained.

There comes a point when the reasonable, rational, open mind succumbs to the sickening truth that we're simply aren't going to have enough booze to keep the party rolling much longer. At that point, many reactions are possible. My own was to enter a house built on a foundation of two simultaneous, mutually opposed belief systems. I know what's going to happen, but I live (more or less) as if it won't. I mourn for the world, but I seek enjoyment in my own, 25-acre sphere until the last day. I'm somewhat of a preppy, but I do the prepping more for fun than because I think it will help me. I'm sad and depressed, but I'm happy and industrious.

Another major reaction of course is cornucopianism. These people cannot face the truth, so they fashion a belief system out of imaginary permanent abundance and brilliant immortality of Man.
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