by AgentR11 » Mon 19 Dec 2011, 03:32:57
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SGV', 'w')hat made you come to the conclusion that jobs are safe for a whole decade?
Well, you'll first note that I was very specific about WHO would be coming to this conclusion. And sure, exceptions are always findable; but in general I think this is a reasonable conclusion. If you are an employed, salaried professional, and made it through 08 -> 11 employed, then it is almost certain that whatever it is that you do makes more money for the company than your compensation package costs them. I look at this problem from both the micro and macro sides; micro-wise, the professional, even if a net gain, still would need to be demonstrated as least cost; but least cost has been a massive pruning factor over the last three years; its already played its role. On the macro-side, I look at employment ratio of civilian population, and the numbers finally look reasonable again, having fallen away from those ridiculous levels created during the tech and re/finance bubbles. This current ratio is the "correct" level of employment for the economy as a whole. There's still a bit of filtering and part-time transition for some that needs to be realized; but we're mostly there on a performance level. Psychology will take more time, but eventually people will capitulate and understand their proper roles.
You will also note the point about declining purchasing power... while the job is most likely secure; the employee's own 'pricing power' is shot, probably for a good while. Just the psychology of the economy having shed so many jobs so quickly will keep demands for pay raises non-existent; not to mention the uncertainty that the new federal intervention has added to the health insurance side of their compensation package. No one is going to push hard for raises until all this is settled, and the economy has benignly forgotten the period of our hedonistic excess during the bubbletime.
That's my reasoning. Could be wrong, future casting for a decade is not exactly a reliable activity.