[Xenophobe]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'D')eutsch Bank pointed out in a study last month that global petroleum demand growth for 2010 was the strongest in 30 years. They conclude that spare capacity will very likely be eroded in a few years. Their forecast for the decade is a plateau tempered by demand, with a very gradual decline starting mid-decade.

[Xenophobe]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bratticus', 'H')as anyone told Janaia that the movement's failed?

[Keith_McClary]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', 'I')t pretty much tears Hubbert's methodology to pieces

[Xenophobe]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Keith_McClary', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', 'I')t pretty much tears Hubbert's methodology to pieces

[Keith_McClary]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Keith_McClary', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', 'I')t pretty much tears Hubbert's methodology to pieces

[Xenophobe]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Keith_McClary', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Keith_McClary', '
')That doesn't depend on "Hubbert's methodology".

[dsula]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', 's')tatistical analysis done by Cavallo in 2004

[Keith_McClary]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Keith_McClary', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Keith_McClary', '
')You don't need "Hubbert's methodology" to conclude that.
Nit-picking about "Hubbert's methodology" is just a straw-man ploy. Is that all he has?

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '
')I am against eyewash and am for positive real action.

[Carlhole]

From Oil Panic and the Global Crisis: Predictions & Myths, p.31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]From the USGS Assessment to 2009
Of course, since 1996, the amounts of reserves, production, and discoveries have changed. First, the USGS did not include in its assessment unconventional oil resources, yet in 2003, Canada’s oil sands were recognized by Oil and Gas Journal (the industry standard) as bona fide reserves of 175 billion barrels. To keep the accounting straight, therefore, one must add 175 billion barrels to the USGS Assessment total, increasing the endowment to 3.2 trillion barrels (3.5 trillion barrels if NGLs are included). Second, reserves have been estimated to be 50 percent higher than in the global Assessment made for 1996. This difference in reserve estimates results from the USGS not including in their reserve estimates any oil from locations that they did not study in detail and omitting unconventional oil resources, as mentioned above.

Thus, some of the oil that the USGS allocated to the “ reserve growth ” and “ discovery ” categories has been identified and deemed profitable such that it became 2009 “reserves". Third, cumulative production through 2008 was just over one trillion barrels. That is, about one-third rather than one-quarter of the estimated global oil endowment now has been consumed.

Lumping together reserve growth and new discoveries, the snapshot of world oil resources at the beginning of 2009 is shown in Figure 2.7 . About one-third of the estimated oil endowment has been consumed, much less than one-half remains as reserves, and only one-quarter remains to be “ found ” through reserve growth or new discoveries.



If we assume that the oil endowment is a firm number around 3.2 trillion barrels, what does this mean in terms of global depletion? As an extremely rough and simplistic approach, one could estimate when the remaining oil would be consumed based on an assumed rate of consumption. Because about one-third of the oil endowment already has been consumed, about 2.2 trillion barrels remain. According to the EIA, world oil production was approximately 27 billion barrels in 2008. At that rate of production, which is not a readily justifiable measure of future production, the remaining 2.2 trillion barrels would be depleted in just over 80 years (2.2 trillion barrels divided by 27 billion barrels per year). Including NGLs in the calculation extends that time-frame by another 12 years, giving a total of 92 years.

Under the assumed oil endowment and production values above, it took about 100 years to deplete the first third of the global oil endowment, and it might take less than 100 years to use the remaining two-thirds. If the average future worldwide production rate were double that of 2008, then depletion of a 2.2 trillion barrel remaining endowment would occur in about 40 to 45 years.

[ian807]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'W')e have to electrify and solarize the transport system, re-arrange our food/nutrient connections and replace suburban/industrial sprawl with an compact agrarian community-based society. That would take time. Years. Which we don't have. Sad.

[Xenophobe]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', '
')I expect that doomers on the board will say that the USGS is full of shit. But the broad public has no reason to think so.

[Xenophobe]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')And oh yeah. USGS WPA 2000 is not "full of shit." It is simply wrong.

[Xenophobe]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'F')olks at the Oil Drum applied Defreyes's "linearization" (a simplified version of Hubbert's complicated calculus) to production histories of dozens of declining oil fields and regions to judge the accuracy of the method in predicting peak. More than 50% of the Oil Drum oil-field linearizations was dead on.

[Xenophobe]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dsula', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', 's')tatistical analysis done by Cavallo in 2004

[Xenophobe]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Keith_McClary', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', '
')When it doesn't work, it isn't called "nit picking".

[Carlhole]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', '.')..It can't even predict a known and theoretically perfect example because it just...doesn't...work.

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2389

[Xenophobe]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', '
')Hubbert had to continually revise upwards his estimate of global URR in order to get his forecast curves to fit the production history curve. The linearization derives from the basic assumption that oil depletion can be accurately described by a bell-shaped curve. So, of course, the HL is going to be wrong also.