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The End of The End: How the Peak Oil Movement Failed

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: The End of The End: How the Peak Oil Movement Failed

Postby vtsnowedin » Sat 15 Jan 2011, 18:04:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'I') don't know who is the more naive. Peak Oil doomers who actually believe that they see warning signals of a capitalism, which is in ebullient expansionary mode, on the brink of imminent collapse, or denialists who believe that this dog and pony show has a future of any sort, Singularity devices included.

8) Is it naive to think that adding three billion people to a planet that has six billion already will not go well?
Is it naive to think that the end of cheap oil ,peak or not, will put a damper on the economy ?
Is it naive to think that human ingenuity might yet again stave off global starvation if we have the brightest minds out of seven billion people working the problem?
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Re: The End of The End: How the Peak Oil Movement Failed

Postby americandream » Sat 15 Jan 2011, 18:43:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'I') don't know who is the more naive. Peak Oil doomers who actually believe that they see warning signals of a capitalism, which is in ebullient expansionary mode, on the brink of imminent collapse, or denialists who believe that this dog and pony show has a future of any sort, Singularity devices included.

8) Is it naive to think that adding three billion people to a planet that has six billion already will not go well?
Is it naive to think that the end of cheap oil ,peak or not, will put a damper on the economy ?
Is it naive to think that human ingenuity might yet again stave off global starvation if we have the brightest minds out of seven billion people working the problem?



Just what I was waiting for. Corporatism masquerading as human ingenuity.

Developing product lines that, as one of their objectives, help feeds the 9 billion whilst systematically unravelling the organic basis of background life by virtue of their packaging, transport, limited shelf life and other mechanisms designed to propel their fast circulation through the profit system (profit being the major objective), with the resultant leakages in continental run-off that sees the oceans/atmosphere being leeched by massive quantities of a variety of pollutants (which there is ample reading for on the Net), is NAIVE, capitalised.

We can use the 7 billion to plumb for the stars, in fact. I have no doubts about our capacity to be creative. Not within capitalism however. There lies the rub.
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Re: The End of The End: How the Peak Oil Movement Failed

Postby Ludi » Sat 15 Jan 2011, 20:35:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '
')A king with a ton of gold and no soldiers will find that he can't carry the gold by himself anymore then he can stop the incoming tide.



He can just hire some soldiers with the gold. At least for the time being.

It's fun to think peak oil will be the great equalizer. But I don't think that will be the case during our lifetimes.

I think peak oil will be the great unequalizer. :(
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Re: The End of The End: How the Peak Oil Movement Failed

Postby dolanbaker » Sat 15 Jan 2011, 21:59:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', ' ')

It's fun to think peak oil will be the great equalizer. But I don't think that will be the case during our lifetimes.

I think peak oil will be the great unequalizer. :(


just like cheap oil originally brought motor transport to ever lower wage earners during the 20th century, starting with the wealthy in the 1900s and to almost everyone by the 1960s.

Peak oil will reverse that trend, not because of the cost of the vehicles but the cost of running one.
Doing without private cars will be very hard for many, as when the upward transition was to cars it was from a form of public transport that won't be there when people lose the car.
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Re: The End of The End: How the Peak Oil Movement Failed

Postby americandream » Sat 15 Jan 2011, 22:00:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '
')A king with a ton of gold and no soldiers will find that he can't carry the gold by himself anymore then he can stop the incoming tide.



He can just hire some soldiers with the gold. At least for the time being.

It's fun to think peak oil will be the great equalizer. But I don't think that will be the case during our lifetimes.

I think peak oil will be the great unequalizer. :(


Inequity requires surplus. Early forms of primitive communism whiich preceded the rise of accumulation and in which the collective culture had yet to acquire the skills of forms of surplus banking, lived quite comnfortably without the inequity we take for granted. The eventual exhaustion of our resource base will see the rise of a collective amnesia which will see this cultural behaviour wiped from our memories.
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Re: The End of The End: How the Peak Oil Movement Failed

Postby Revi » Sun 16 Jan 2011, 00:11:29

We're all gonna be walking soon. I think we'll see minivans acting as busses in a lot of places. I am realizing that driving a car that gets 11 mpg is stupid. I was thinking of getting another vehicle that gets good mileage, but it may be too expensive. I can't go anwhere any more. Ten dollars of gas gets me 34 miles! In my wife's car that will take us a hundred miles or more.

It beats walking.
Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
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Re: The End of The End: How the Peak Oil Movement Failed

Postby dolanbaker » Sun 16 Jan 2011, 20:46:32

EVs were out of the picture a lot earlier than that! Superior power and range of the ICE saw to that.
Anyway peak oil is not just about the cars, what's the point in being able to drive everywhere in an EV when food production has collapsed due to restricted supplies of oil based fertilisers, pesticides etc plus the reduction in fuel for tractors.

Repeat, peak oil is not just about the cars!
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Re: The End of The End: How the Peak Oil Movement Failed

Postby vtsnowedin » Sun 16 Jan 2011, 23:42:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dolanbaker', 'E')Vs were out of the picture a lot earlier than that! Superior power and range of the ICE saw to that.
Anyway peak oil is not just about the cars, what's the point in being able to drive everywhere in an EV when food production has collapsed due to restricted supplies of oil based fertilisers, pesticides etc plus the reduction in fuel for tractors.

Repeat, peak oil is not just about the cars!

Yes of course but at present we use,or waste, depending on your point of view over half of the oil being produced on cars and planes. So as we bounce down the backside of Hubbert's curve we can get halfway down the cliff be getting rid of the ICE cars and trucks before we have to cut back on fertilizer and petrochemicals etc. They will bulldoze suburbs flat before they will let any of the corn belt go fallow.
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Re: The End of The End: How the Peak Oil Movement Failed

Postby dolanbaker » Mon 17 Jan 2011, 00:35:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dolanbaker', 'E')Vs were out of the picture a lot earlier than that! Superior power and range of the ICE saw to that.
Anyway peak oil is not just about the cars, what's the point in being able to drive everywhere in an EV when food production has collapsed due to restricted supplies of oil based fertilisers, pesticides etc plus the reduction in fuel for tractors.

Repeat, peak oil is not just about the cars!

Yes of course but at present we use,or waste, depending on your point of view over half of the oil being produced on cars and planes. So as we bounce down the backside of Hubbert's curve we can get halfway down the cliff be getting rid of the ICE cars and trucks before we have to cut back on fertilizer and petrochemicals etc. They will bulldoze suburbs flat before they will let any of the corn belt go fallow.

Yes I agree, I was responding to a post that has since disappeared!
Religion is regarded by the common people as true, by the wise as false, and by rulers as useful.:Anonymous
Our whole economy is based on planned obsolescence.
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Re: The End of The End: How the Peak Oil Movement Failed

Postby IsThisRealLife » Mon 17 Jan 2011, 11:04:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', 'P')eak oil was supposed to be THE serious. Happened 5 years ago. Maybe we need to wait another 5? A decade? Or this more of a Malthusian scale prediction, and we need to wait a few centuries?
One thing I learned about this: if it's written here, it's most probably wrong.
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Re: The End of The End: How the Peak Oil Movement Failed

Postby Ludi » Mon 17 Jan 2011, 20:07:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', ' ')They will bulldoze suburbs flat before they will let any of the corn belt go fallow.



"Any" of the corn belt is already fallow:

"Iowa landowners are enrolling 128,000 acres in the land-idling Conservation Reserve Program this year, enough to more than offset the 117,000 acres worth of expiring contracts. Iowa currently has 1.64 million acres enrolled in CRP, which pays landowners to keep highly erodible former cropland out of production for 10 to 15 years."

http://blogs.desmoinesregister.com/dmr/ ... n-program/
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Re: The End of The End: How the Peak Oil Movement Failed

Postby vtsnowedin » Tue 18 Jan 2011, 07:32:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', ' ')They will bulldoze suburbs flat before they will let any of the corn belt go fallow.



"Any" of the corn belt is already fallow:

"Iowa landowners are enrolling 128,000 acres in the land-idling Conservation Reserve Program this year, enough to more than offset the 117,000 acres worth of expiring contracts. Iowa currently has 1.64 million acres enrolled in CRP, which pays landowners to keep highly erodible former cropland out of production for 10 to 15 years."

http://blogs.desmoinesregister.com/dmr/ ... n-program/

:) OK so you got me. I could have said before they reduce agricultural inputs but that seemed a bit dry. I think my original point is still valid don't you?
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Re: The End of The End: How the Peak Oil Movement Failed

Postby Ludi » Tue 18 Jan 2011, 14:28:48

No, I don't. Unless someone is paying for production in the corn belt nobody will bother to farm it. Who will pay? I guess China might, for awhile. Nobody is going to bulldoze the suburbs or whatever. This idea that farming will somehow magically continue in the absence of money to pay for farming is a strange one to me. The 1-2% of the US population who farm these days do it because they are paid to farm; they aren't farming to produce food, they are farming to produce money. "The government will do it" seems to be the argument. But folks are constantly telling us the government is collapsing, or will collapse in the near future. So what government is going to pay to continue to farm? Who exactly is "they"?

8O
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Re: The End of The End: How the Peak Oil Movement Failed

Postby americandream » Tue 18 Jan 2011, 15:05:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'N')o, I don't. Unless someone is paying for production in the corn belt nobody will bother to farm it. Who will pay? I guess China might, for awhile. Nobody is going to bulldoze the suburbs or whatever. This idea that farming will somehow magically continue in the absence of money to pay for farming is a strange one to me. The 1-2% of the US population who farm these days do it because they are paid to farm; they aren't farming to produce food, they are farming to produce money. "The government will do it" seems to be the argument. But folks are constantly telling us the government is collapsing, or will collapse in the near future. So what government is going to pay to continue to farm? Who exactly is "they"?

8O


He fails to see that behind the elaborate web of goods and services is the profit system which if it were to fail to deliver an adequate return (for whatever reason), would simply withdraw from that activity. In that instance, and given the anaemic state of government worldwide, you are correct. It is precisely this state of affairs that will find the backlash to capitalism giving birth to its antithesis. Not to say that this will be a smooth bloodless transition to utopia. The emphasis however is on antithesis, however that is arrived by.
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Re: The End of The End: How the Peak Oil Movement Failed

Postby Carlhole » Tue 18 Jan 2011, 15:13:36

If anything, we'll see a wave of robotization and AI sweep through industrial agriculture, operating on huge farms which use electrical energy from small modular molten salt reactors, or something along those lines. The numbers of human farm workers will shrink still further. Same thing in manufacturing.

Robotization and use of AI is a powerfully advancing trend. I don't see how people around here can ignore it. Ain't gonna be no "little house on the prairie" if the robots are coming. And they are.
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Re: The End of The End: How the Peak Oil Movement Failed

Postby americandream » Tue 18 Jan 2011, 15:32:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', 'I')f anything, we'll see a wave of robotization and AI sweep through industrial agriculture, operating on huge farms which use electrical energy from small modular molten salt reactors, or something along those lines. The numbers of human farm workers will shrink still further. Same thing in manufacturing.

Robotization and use of AI is a powerfully advancing trend. I don't see how people around here can ignore it. Ain't gonna be no "little house on the prairie" if the robots are coming. And they are.


Irrespective of how that profit is derived, whether it be by human labour or some other form of surplus creation, the underlying valorisation still requires to be considered. Where value is compromised, for the lack of latent surplus borne of energy inputs (labour costs and/or peak oil and/or other energy shortfall as well as further limits to technological improvisation), and other externalities (in capitalism's case, functional waste and socialised pollution), then the automisation process is of another calibre than what you contemplate.
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Re: The End of The End: How the Peak Oil Movement Failed

Postby Ludi » Tue 18 Jan 2011, 16:07:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', '
')Irrespective of how that profit is derived, whether it be by human labour or some other form of surplus creation, the underlying valorisation still requires to be considered.



Exactly. Who is going to pay for AI and robots to grow food? China, for awhile, I guess.

(wow, I'm having such deja vu )
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Re: The End of The End: How the Peak Oil Movement Failed

Postby vtsnowedin » Tue 18 Jan 2011, 19:58:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'N')o, I don't. Unless someone is paying for production in the corn belt nobody will bother to farm it. Who will pay? I guess China might, for awhile. Nobody is going to bulldoze the suburbs or whatever. This idea that farming will somehow magically continue in the absence of money to pay for farming is a strange one to me. The 1-2% of the US population who farm these days do it because they are paid to farm; they aren't farming to produce food, they are farming to produce money. "The government will do it" seems to be the argument. But folks are constantly telling us the government is collapsing, or will collapse in the near future. So what government is going to pay to continue to farm? Who exactly is "they"?

8O

I was addressing the likely event of oil becoming much more expensive not a total collapse. On second thought they will not bulldoze any suburbs. It would be a waste of scarce fuel. Suburbs that are no longer viable due to high oil prices and lack of public transport will be simply abandoned and left to rot. Farming on the other hand will continue as long as there are people to eat the food produced. As oil prices rise food prices will rise in parallel and farming will become more profitable then it has been for years. When faced with the choice of giving up the family SUV or giving up food Americans will give up the SUV and will even move back in with their mother-in-law to be able to walk to work. Perhaps we will get to the doomsday scenarios of AI robots farming for corporate master thugs but that will be a lot further down the cliff.
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Re: The End of The End: How the Peak Oil Movement Failed

Postby rangerone314 » Wed 19 Jan 2011, 02:31:03

How many electric cars will be on the road in 5 years? In 10 years? (out of 250 million personal vehicles in the US?)

Peak Oil movement failed for the same reason that electing Obama has not resulted in real change. The system is rigged to maintain the status quo until it collapses.
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Re: The End of The End: How the Peak Oil Movement Failed

Postby vtsnowedin » Wed 19 Jan 2011, 07:54:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', 'H')ow many electric cars will be on the road in 5 years? In 10 years? (out of 250 million personal vehicles in the US?)

Peak Oil movement failed for the same reason that electing Obama has not resulted in real change. The system is rigged to maintain the status quo until it collapses.

:roll: What "Peak oil movement" are you talking about? And failed at what goal? I know of no movement that tried to organize a nationwide political party or business selling doomsteads and their fixtures, or a religion with a salvation for believers supported by the collection plate. Are you assuming that the LATOC site was the beginning and the end of peak oil?
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