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The End of The End: How the Peak Oil Movement Failed

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Re: The End of The End: How the Peak Oil Movement Failed

Postby Keith_McClary » Fri 07 Jan 2011, 20:50:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', 'P')eer reviewed science exists for a reason. The USGS has been doing it since before everyone on this website was born.

USGS WPA: "The methodology was thoroughly
reviewed by partners in industry, government, and
professional associations."

Asking your partners to read your report is not the same as "Peer reviewed" .
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Re: The End of The End: How the Peak Oil Movement Failed

Postby Xenophobe » Fri 07 Jan 2011, 21:19:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Keith_McClary', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', 'P')eer reviewed science exists for a reason. The USGS has been doing it since before everyone on this website was born.

USGS WPA: "The methodology was thoroughly
reviewed by partners in industry, government, and
professional associations."

Asking your partners to read your report is not the same as "Peer reviewed" .


Depends on what they mean by partners I suppose. An entire subcommittee of the AAPG was apparently put to work going through the methods used by the USGS to do their work. Not many peer reviews where the actual reviewers comments are attached right along with the work. Certainly looks like peer review to me.

"The Committee on Resource Evaluation is satisfied with the scientific methodology, rigor and consistency being applied to the World Oil and Gas Assessment by the USGS World Energy Project. The results of this project, sizes and volumes of undiscovered oil and gas accumulations in various parts of the world, will address matters of significant national and international interest and will be a great data resource for policy makers and those engaged in strategic planning."

http://certmapper.cr.usgs.gov/data/noga ... method.pdf

Seen that kind of scientific backup for ANYTHING ever pumped out by ASPO? Read the document, the USGS actually has geologists working on this, most ASPO work appears to come from Swedish physics professors. Do Swedish physics professors even have any experience in this Resource Evaluation type of work?
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Re: The End of The End: How the Peak Oil Movement Failed

Postby Keith_McClary » Fri 07 Jan 2011, 22:37:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', ' ')An entire subcommittee of the AAPG was apparently put to work going through the methods used by the USGS to do their work. Not many peer reviews where the actual reviewers comments are attached right along with the work. Certainly looks like peer review to me.

"Peer review" doesn't usually mean you get to pick the reviewers (in this case from a trade association with obvious interests).

The AAPG also has an impartial :roll: scientific opinion on Climate Change.
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Re: The End of The End: How the Peak Oil Movement Failed

Postby Xenophobe » Fri 07 Jan 2011, 23:35:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Keith_McClary', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', ' ')An entire subcommittee of the AAPG was apparently put to work going through the methods used by the USGS to do their work. Not many peer reviews where the actual reviewers comments are attached right along with the work. Certainly looks like peer review to me.

"Peer review" doesn't usually mean you get to pick the reviewers (in this case from a trade association with obvious interests).

The AAPG also has an impartial :roll: scientific opinion on Climate Change.


You imply skepticism. Do you have any information whatsoever that these geologists aren't impartial or are you just pretending they are?

As far as climate change, they believe in it and have a statement to that effect. Wrote an excellent book as well. You can find both here.

http://dpa.aapg.org/gac/statements/climatechange.cfm

Geologists, knowing more about past earth climates than most, request the following.

"To be predictive, any model of future climate should also accurately model known climate and greenhouse gas variations recorded in the geologic history of the past 200,000 years."

Is there any reason they haven't been supplied with something so reasonable by the modeler types?
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Re: The End of The End: How the Peak Oil Movement Failed

Postby thuja » Sat 08 Jan 2011, 00:00:05

Oh no it's xeno1...peak oil is alarmist nonsense xeno. What happened to VoltNirvana xeno2?
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Re: The End of The End: How the Peak Oil Movement Failed

Postby Xenophobe » Sat 08 Jan 2011, 00:10:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', 'O')h no it's xeno1...peak oil is alarmist nonsense xeno. What happened to VoltNirvana xeno2?


I think perhaps today is.... Focus Nirvana Day! To celebrate yet ANOTHER major manufacturer joining in, understanding, recognizing, and DOING something in response to peak oil! Happy happy joy joy! The wife even likes it! Saw it on the telly this evening. Says as long as she can tie her iPhone into its systems, fire it up, communicate with it, she will happily walk with me, arm in arm, into our EV future!

http://content.usatoday.com/communities ... car-show/1
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Re: The End of The End: How the Peak Oil Movement Failed

Postby Keith_McClary » Sat 08 Jan 2011, 00:31:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Keith_McClary', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', ' ')An entire subcommittee of the AAPG was apparently put to work going through the methods used by the USGS to do their work. Not many peer reviews where the actual reviewers comments are attached right along with the work. Certainly looks like peer review to me.

"Peer review" doesn't usually mean you get to pick the reviewers (in this case from a trade association with obvious interests).

The AAPG also has an impartial :roll: scientific opinion on Climate Change.


You imply skepticism. Do you have any information whatsoever that these geologists aren't impartial or are you just pretending they are?

It's like a nutrition study "peer reviewed" by the Association of Industrial Food Chemists. Wouldn't you take that with a grain of NaCl ?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', 'A')s far as climate change, they believe in it and have a statement to that effect.

This? :
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')APG supports research to narrow probabilistic ranges on the effect of anthropogenic CO2 on global climate. :lol:
I wonder how long the committee haggled over that wording?
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Re: The End of The End: How the Peak Oil Movement Failed

Postby Xenophobe » Sat 08 Jan 2011, 01:06:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Keith_McClary', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Keith_McClary', '
')The AAPG also has an impartial :roll: scientific opinion on Climate Change.


You imply skepticism. Do you have any information whatsoever that these geologists aren't impartial or are you just pretending they are?

It's like a nutrition study "peer reviewed" by the Association of Industrial Food Chemists. Wouldn't you take that with a grain of NaCl ?


You use an analogy to try and denigrate the peer review process....do you actually have any evidence, or even hints, that peer review in the geoscience profession is somehow compromised at the top levels or not?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daniel', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', 'A')s far as climate change, they believe in it and have a statement to that effect.

This? :
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')APG supports research to narrow probabilistic ranges on the effect of anthropogenic CO2 on global climate. :lol:
I wonder how long the committee haggled over that wording?

Don't know. But that isn't the part I noticed, this part was.

"Geologists study the history of the earth and realize climate has changed often in the past due to natural causes. The Earth’s climate naturally varies constantly, in both directions, at varying rates, and on many scales. In recent decades global temperatures have risen. Yet, our planet has been far warmer and cooler than today many times in the geologic past, including the past 10,000 years."

Like I said, they believe in climate change. These are the LAST people you can play the "you don't believe in climate change!" game with.
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Re: The End of The End: How the Peak Oil Movement Failed

Postby Keith_McClary » Sat 08 Jan 2011, 01:59:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', 'Y')ou use an analogy to try and denigrate the peer review process....do you actually have any evidence, or even hints, that peer review in the geoscience profession is somehow compromised at the top levels or not?

Peer review is supposed to be by scientists not connected with the research and without a vested interest. I'm not denigrating peer review, I'm saying this "partner" committee working with the USGS is not peer review. More like co-authors.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', 't')he part I noticed, this part was.

"Geologists study the history of the earth and realize climate has changed often in the past due to natural causes. The Earth’s climate naturally varies constantly, in both directions, at varying rates, and on many scales. In recent decades global temperatures have risen. Yet, our planet has been far warmer and cooler than today many times in the geologic past, including the past 10,000 years."

Like I said, they believe in climate change. These are the LAST people you can play the "you don't believe in climate change!" game with.

Oh, I thought you were talking about Anthropogenic Climate Change. Silly me. :roll:
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Re: The End of The End: How the Peak Oil Movement Failed

Postby Xenophobe » Sat 08 Jan 2011, 02:18:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Keith_McClary', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', 'Y')ou use an analogy to try and denigrate the peer review process....do you actually have any evidence, or even hints, that peer review in the geoscience profession is somehow compromised at the top levels or not?

Peer review is supposed to be by scientists not connected with the research and without a vested interest.


Sounds quite reasonable.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Keith', '
')I'm not denigrating peer review, I'm saying this "partner" committee working with the USGS is not peer review. More like co-authors.


Co-authors get their name on the publication. Did you see any of the AAPG people listed on a USGS publication somewhere? Or have you discovered that the AAPG review committee is somehow connected to the research done by the USGS? Or worse yet, have a vested interest in it? The USGS doesn't charge for their work, they hand stuff out for free and put it on the web and stuff. Its government funded research, and it comes with rules I imagine. For example, here are some of those rules for peer review. Under "Policy", Part A.

A. Peer reviews must include at least two qualified scientists who have no stake in the outcome of the review, who are not associated with the work being performed, and who are without conflict of interest.

http://www.usgs.gov/usgs-manual/500/502-3.html

Seems like the USGS thinks the same thing about peer review that you do. Check out Policy 7 on that sheet....looks pretty reasonable to me for guidelines.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daniel', ' ')
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', 't')he part I noticed, this part was.
"Geologists study the history of the earth and realize climate has changed often in the past due to natural causes. The Earth’s climate naturally varies constantly, in both directions, at varying rates, and on many scales. In recent decades global temperatures have risen. Yet, our planet has been far warmer and cooler than today many times in the geologic past, including the past 10,000 years."

Like I said, they believe in climate change. These are the LAST people you can play the "you don't believe in climate change!" game with.

Oh, I thought you were talking about Anthropogenic Climate Change. Silly me. :roll:

I listed exactly what they said. They appear to want the modelers to model more than just the last 100 years in order, perhaps, for their models to be taken more seriously. Its called backcasting, and its a reasonable way to test models. Why haven't these reasonable requests been handled already by the modelers?
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Re: The End of The End: How the Peak Oil Movement Failed

Postby rangerone314 » Sat 08 Jan 2011, 02:35:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', 'A')nd while the cornies try to refute peak oil, the price keeps rising to near 100.


Nobody refutes peak oil, thats a peaker strawman. Its already happened, the revisionists are in full scramble trying to pretend they really didn't MEAN it would cause rationing, shortages or a dieoff and such, and those of us who don't use gasoline much anymore could care less what the price of crude is. $100 after 2008? Childs play. Go look at the picks for crude price in 2011, nearly all the Doomers in this joint are predicting more of the same for crude prices, 6 years after peak oil now and THEY don't believe its any big deal anymore.

The point to the entire article is that demand destruction is much more powerful a force than field declines. Darn straight. The guy must have read some of my posts!

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', '
') In a world filled with limitless oil and humans ability to easily shift to an electric based planet, why would that ever happen?


Because OPEC likes MORE money for their product rather than LESS. As do we all.

Wow, demand destruction is more powerful than field declines; who would have thought.

And the only price we have to pay for demand destruction and to control the peak oil devil is to have about 16% real unemployment, a trashed the economy with a "recovery" that can't seem to get any traction, and oil is still about $90/bbl.

I suppose when the recession kicks in again because of oil being too high like maybe $100-110/bbl, it will drop but it certainly won't reach $30 again. And I when economy tries to recover again after that, it will go much higher again. Each time the price paid to get "demand destruction" will be higher, and it will go hand in hand with feedbacks from the other economic issues.

Theoretically you could have enough demand destruction to knock oil demand to 1 million/bbl day but then your GDP would be a lot lower... also noting difficulty creating vast new infrastructure during a struggling economy.

I'm not holding my breath for it to happen... a society that only increases road capacity 8% over decades in which road use has doubled is too short-term thinking to accomplish anything really significant or important. And by that I don't mean iTouch or iPod or any other iCrap, or MySpace or Facebook. How about a pair of shoes that are affordable and don't crap out after 6 month? How about a pan that doesn't have all of its non-stick burn off after first use? How about computers than don't crash so easily?

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Re: The End of The End: How the Peak Oil Movement Failed

Postby Xenophobe » Sat 08 Jan 2011, 11:32:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', '
')Wow, demand destruction is more powerful than field declines; who would have thought.


No peak oilers prior to 2005. All peak oilers now.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', '
')And the only price we have to pay for demand destruction and to control the peak oil devil is to have about 16% real unemployment, a trashed the economy with a "recovery" that can't seem to get any traction, and oil is still about $90/bbl.


"House As ATM" effects should not be confused with peak oil effects.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Rangerone314', '
') How about a pair of shoes that are affordable and don't crap out after 6 month?


My dress shoes I've been wearing daily for 4 years now. My Nike hiking boots are 6 years old. I have 3 pairs of motorcycle boots. I bought the first in 1988. The next in 1994. The 4rd in 2005. I still wear all 3. I have 2 pair of work boots, Redwings, from when I did field work. From 1987 - 1994. Quality is out there, you just have to look a little harder than Walmart I suppose.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Rangerone314', '
')Other countries play Chess or Go, Americans watch WWF of DWTS.


Other countries don't allow their citizens to become a Bill Gates very easily. Americans don't mind in the least. Without the proper incentive you get perfectly normal, and wildly non imaginative toadies. Do you think the Chinese stealth jet looks like an American Raptor by random chance?
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Re: The End of The End: How the Peak Oil Movement Failed

Postby Keith_McClary » Sat 08 Jan 2011, 13:37:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', 'A'). Peer reviews must include at least two qualified scientists who have no stake in the outcome of the review, who are not associated with the work being performed, and who are without conflict of interest.

http://www.usgs.gov/usgs-manual/500/502-3.html

Seems like the USGS thinks the same thing about peer review that you do. Check out Policy 7 on that sheet....looks pretty reasonable to me for guidelines.

The report in question referred to AAPG "partners". The AAPG is not a scientific organization, it is a trade union of people whose jobs depend on the a belief in plentiful undiscovered oil.
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Re: The End of The End: How the Peak Oil Movement Failed

Postby Carlhole » Sat 08 Jan 2011, 14:18:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Keith_McClary', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', 'A'). Peer reviews must include at least two qualified scientists who have no stake in the outcome of the review, who are not associated with the work being performed, and who are without conflict of interest.

http://www.usgs.gov/usgs-manual/500/502-3.html

Seems like the USGS thinks the same thing about peer review that you do. Check out Policy 7 on that sheet....looks pretty reasonable to me for guidelines.

The report in question referred to AAPG "partners". The AAPG is not a scientific organization, it is a trade union of people whose jobs depend on the a belief in plentiful undiscovered oil.


This is another counting how many angels fit on the head of a pin discussion.

To the broader public, bringing into question the USGS official numbers by arguing over "peer-review" is utterly ridiculous. They don't give a rat's ass about that! There is no reason for the public at large to believe ASPO over the USGS.

deleted

And the point of this thread; "How the PO movement failed". It failed because its arguments do not have the credibility of a USGS. It's thats simple.
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Re: The End of The End: How the Peak Oil Movement Failed

Postby rangerone314 » Sat 08 Jan 2011, 14:24:51

USGS, aren't they the ones that estimated oil in the US back when Hubbert was predicting peak oil for the US in 1970?
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Re: The End of The End: How the Peak Oil Movement Failed

Postby Carlhole » Sat 08 Jan 2011, 14:47:41

If anything, ASPO, being little more than an ad hoc organization, would be required to defend their alarmist claims with a thorough peer-review of every study they ever publish - because naturally, they will not carry the weight of credibility that USGS possesses.

ASPO is the upstart bucking the predominant views; not USGS, which has a long venerable history.
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Re: The End of The End: How the Peak Oil Movement Failed

Postby Xenophobe » Sat 08 Jan 2011, 16:32:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Keith_McClary', '
')The report in question referred to AAPG "partners". The AAPG is not a scientific organization, it is a trade union of people whose jobs depend on the a belief in plentiful undiscovered oil.


The AAPG is the largest professional geologic society in the United States, not a union, and was founded in 1917. And their jobs are not dependent on belief, but finding oil and gas, although quite a few are academics as well. They have their own peer reviewed literature and have been doing scientific research since before either of us were born.

Have you ever been to an AAPG convention and seen these "trade union" clues yourself?

From their website.

" The original purpose of AAPG, to foster scientific research, to advance the science of geology, to promote technology, and to inspire high professional conduct, still guides the Association today."

Fostering research sure sounds all scientific to me. Check out their constitution and bylaws.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AAPG Article II. PURPOSES', '
')
The purposes of this Association are to advance the science of geology, especially as it relates to petroleum, natural gas, other subsurface fluids, and mineral resources; to promote the technology of exploring for, finding, and producing these materials in an economically and environmentally sound manner; to foster the spirit of scientific research throughout its membership; to disseminate information relating to the geology and the associated technology of petroleum, natural gas, other subsurface fluids, and mineral resources; to inspire and maintain a high standard of professional conduct on the part of its members; to provide the public with means to recognize adequately trained and professionally responsible geologists; and to advance the professional well-being of its members.
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Re: The End of The End: How the Peak Oil Movement Failed

Postby Xenophobe » Sat 08 Jan 2011, 16:38:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', 'U')SGS, aren't they the ones that estimated oil in the US back when Hubbert was predicting peak oil for the US in 1970?


The USGS predicted US peak oil in 1919. Beat Hubbert to it by 37 years.
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Re: The End of The End: How the Peak Oil Movement Failed

Postby Xenophobe » Sat 08 Jan 2011, 16:45:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', '
')To the broader public, bringing into question the USGS official numbers by arguing over "peer-review" is utterly ridiculous. They don't give a rat's ass about that! There is no reason for the public at large to believe ASPO over the USGS.

deleted

And the point of this thread; "How the PO movement failed". It failed because its arguments do not have the credibility of a USGS. It's thats simple.


Lots of interesting analysis have been done demonstrating just this fact. For example, Natural Resources Research just published this rebuttal to ASPO claims, Deleted, which included quite a few of the "new age" peak oil science people in the UK. When information comes up showing how ASPO wants nothing to do with facing actual experts Deleted it is of course never mentioned at PO sites.

Much of this has been surfacing lately and the resistance in the peak community to even mentioning it has been pretty fierce.
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Re: The End of The End: How the Peak Oil Movement Failed

Postby dolanbaker » Sat 08 Jan 2011, 18:39:57

It's easy to see why the peak oil movement fails to get the publics attention.

Many of the posters here are also strong believers in global warming and doomers, the general public simply don't want to hear such messages!

If the message put accross was more realistic, i.e drip feed the decline in living standards, educating people to reject consumer products that have a stunted life, live near to work, use local shops, buy locally made products etc, rather than the "mad max" type of scenario that many associate with peak oil.

The first phase of the decline has already started of course, with the economy refusing to continue to grow as everyone has expected it to, this economic decline is being blamed on other things of course so the lack of cheap plentiful oil is not really noticed.
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