[IsThisRealLife]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', 'W')hen faced with the choice of giving up the SUV or giving up food Americans will give up the SUV and will even move back in with their mother-in-law to be able to walk to work.

[IsThisRealLife]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', 'H')ow many electric cars will be on the road in 5 years? In 10 years? (out of 250 million personal vehicles in the US?)

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('IsThisRealLife', 'P')O is not a movement, but a geological fact.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', ' ')Farming on the other hand will continue as long as there are people to eat the food produced.

[Hawkcreek]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', ' ')Farming on the other hand will continue as long as there are people to eat the food produced.

[ian807]

Heck, I didn't know there was a peak oil "movement." I thought it was just a bunch of folks who figured out at age 5 that you couldn't drain a bathtub forever and still have water in it.

Seriously, math is math. We (i.e. "the world") use 30 billion barrels of oil a year. That gives us 30-some years tops of "conventional" (i.e. affordable) oil if we keep pumping it out at that rate. Finding an extra 100 billion here or there will make the tub drain a little slower, but it's still draining faster than we can fill it.

[LateGreatPlanetEarth]

we still know that discovery has been less than consumption for the last 40 years (which has been the traditional marker used). That means the peak is out there, or recently passed. remember, the plateau could be about 4 years.

[Revi]

The plateau is going to last a few more years, but the price of energy will go up. The price of a barrel of oil in 2010 was almost $80 a barrel on average. That was the second highest price after 2008. Check out what Gregor.us has to say about it:

http://gregor.us/

We are entering the end of the oil age now. I just saw a piece on Frontline about the maintenance of commercial aircraft. It made me think that we are not going to be able to keep these things in the air much longer. They are too complicated, and in an era of expensive oil and aging aircraft there are going to be problems.

Welcome to the second half of the oil age.

[AirlinePilot]

30 years ago things were very much different. Our ability to discover and exploit oil resources is vastly better now. We all know about reserve growth and all that but doesn't it sometimes strike you that we may have actually gotten better at modeling discovery, exploration, and also estimating resource base? My thoughts are that we have a FAR better picture now as we begin to realize the possibilities of what might remain with regard to oil resources. I admit that its still a large unknown, but you have to acknowledge we may actually have begun to reach the end of the rope when it comes to discovery of large reservoirs of easy oil. At the least we are a lot better at looking for and finding oil, if we are not finding the big giant resources we need I doubt it is for lack of ability or desire. At these prices we should be finding new SA's a few times a year according to global economists!

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', ' ')Farming on the other hand will continue as long as there are people to eat the food produced.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '
') Compared to you Ludie I am a slow crasher. I don't think we will all lose our jobs and the ability to pay for food overnight. I do expect quite a bit of disruption and the rate of that upheaval to accelerate over time. I think that a lot of jobs will be created in the new industry of "Dealing with peak oil". If we can't afford oil at its current price we will expend time and labor doing whatever it is that needs to be done by other means. Not all the Mother-in-laws live in the city. Some are still living on the family farm

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ian807', 'H')eck, I didn't know there was a peak oil "movement." I thought it was just a bunch of folks who figured out at age 5 that you couldn't drain a bathtub forever and still have water in it.

[LateGreatPlanetEarth]

i fell for it hard; saw the data with the discovery and consumption figures and concluded that the book, "the party is over" was a can't miss. now, it's time for contriteness and humble pie for dessert. about time these authors knell on the public altar and confess their sins.

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LateGreatPlanetEarth', 'i') fell for it hard; saw the data with the discovery and consumption figures and concluded that the book, "the party is over" was a can't miss. now, it's time for contriteness and humble pie for dessert. about time these authors knell on the public altar and confess their sins.

[ROCKMAN]

LGPE - I don’t mean to pile on but can you explain exactly what you think you were wrong about? If it’s the date of PO or that production wouldn't increase I can understand your confusion. At least from how I view PO. As most here probably know I don’t consider the date of PO (whatever it might be) to be at all relevant. I don’t even consider the current global oil production rate to be a critical component of PO. To me PO is all about the price of oil and its effect on the economy as well as govt actions to keep oil resources secure.

For me PO is as simple as it is real: the world’s oil consumers are transferring $2 trillion MORE of it wealth for oil today than it was a decade ago. That’s “PO” IMHO. Govts have expended $trillions and countless lives in an attempt to keep oil producing regions stable. That’s “PO” IMHO. There are vicious military conflicts underway today in oil producing regions. Regions where the development of nuclear weapons is an issue. That’s “PO” IMHO. Govts like China are expending huge sums of capital to secure future oil production. That’s “PO” IMHO. Territorial disputes over control of potentially oil bearing offshore regions are developing…areas of little interest not too long ago. That’s “PO” IMHO. Though there were other contributing factors I doubt it was a coincidence that the US plunged into one of the worst recessions in history at the same time that oil/NG prices reached all-time highs. That’s “PO” IMHO.

So someone misestimated a meaningless date on the calendar. So what? PO is here today. Perhaps not that statistical metric but the repercussions of PO are very obvious IMHO and trump any thought of dates or volumes. PO is dead? Maybe to someone who doesn’t pay for any hydrocarbon based products. Maybe for someone heating their home with fuel oil during the polar vortex. Maybe for someone whose tax $’s haven’t been spent in military adventures in oil producing regions. Maybe for someone who hasn’t lost their job because their company could afford energy or their salary…but not both.

It’s like that old joke: falling off a 10 story building isn’t a problem…it’s that sudden stop. Sort of like saying this run up to global PO isn’t a problem…the problem begins when we hit GPO. I disagree.

[ROCKMAN]

Pstarr – it didn’t bother me as much before but now that the US has had its “surge” and the world is producing more oil than ever too many ignorant/dishonest folks are focusing on previous incorrect predictions of various peak timings. By focusing on dates both sides of the argument are deflecting from the truly important issue: the economic and geopolitical aspects of our energy supply dynamics. Which is why I started ranting about the relative unimportance of such dates back in my early Oil Drum days.

I know some folks don’t like my POD (Peak Oil Dynamic) because it’s too inclusive. But life is pretty dang inclusive. LOL. Maybe if they draw on the mystical “speculators” some folks can explain why we have record high oil prices at a time when producers are supplying more oil to consumers than ever before. But if one dissects all those factors in the POD it really isn’t that difficult to common up with a less conspiratorial cause.

Given we can’t ID those speculators obviously we can’t do anything about them. OTOH if we see each component of the POD clearly we may be able to develop a reasonable strategy. But even then there aren’t many viable solutions…just better and worse reactions.

[sparky]

.
I go with Rockman , but I'm getting seriously worried on the extraction prospect ,
pretty much all the "new "resources are fast depleting ones

I find it significant that the US is trying to re-open Iran for business ,
its the best prospect for cheap conventional oil .
if i'm right ( big if ) there will be a lot of posturing but the Iranian fields will be upgraded and or developed

[americandream]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'S')o someone misestimated a meaningless date on the calendar. So what? PO is here today.

[ROCKMAN]

step back - And just to be sure I've completely confused folks the actual date of global PO may still be years away...maybe many years. As you say we'll only be able to make that call years down the road. Again, why I feel that date has little relevance to the relationship between the economies and oil prices. A person might live 10+ years suffering with cancer before they reach Peak Life. If you've ever had the misfortune of watching such a personal slowly pass you might be of the opinion that the date of their Peak Life isn't the worst event in their life. Similarly the date of global PO might not be the worst moment for many economies.