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Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return

Postby MonteQuest » Thu 02 Mar 2006, 21:35:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rogerhb', 'I')'m not expecting to global economy to continue to function. What I'm saying is if you start to cut back on your inputs, as per the ODP, then your country will be able to powerdown in a more stable manner.


What do you think happens to stability of any kind when the global economy implodes? We are all in the same boat.
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Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return

Postby rogerhb » Thu 02 Mar 2006, 21:59:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'W')hat do you think happens to stability of any kind when the global economy implodes? We are all in the same boat.


Some of us are in different parts of the boat.

Stability will vary all over the world depending on mix of cultures, volatility of those cultures, neighbours, history, resources, land area, location, government style and individual leaders responses.
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Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return

Postby MonteQuest » Thu 02 Mar 2006, 22:10:29

I reiterate back on topic:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')ne of the things that has continuously puzzled me is that amongst the optimistic solutions posited to solve hydrocarbon depletion, I see an assumption that we have, or will have, the time to mitigate the consequences of peak oil.

If it takes decades to prepare for this, and we have just a few years at best by most accounts and predictions, why is it that people continue to think complex, technical, and highly capital intensive solutions can be developed and implemented literally overnight?
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Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return

Postby rogerhb » Thu 02 Mar 2006, 22:22:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'I') reiterate back on topic:


Yeah, sure, if you want to be all pedantic and want us to stick to the topic, then, yes, we are beyond the point of no return.

But this is the begining of the end, not the end of the begining.

Who has been nominated as the corpulent chantress?
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Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return

Postby Ludi » Thu 02 Mar 2006, 22:33:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bobcousins', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'N')uclear is just the most ardently argued here and I would like to hear their comeback.


Heh, now that's funny. :lol:

You set up the strawman, then let the doomers tear it apart. Cute.


There you have it, folks.

Raising the "time" element required to build the nuke plants is a strawman.

A weak argument set up by me to win an easy, showy victory by proxy. :roll:


So does this mean they were never claiming nukes could "save" us? Oh man! I totally misunderstood them! After all that, going over and over and over the same stuff, and I STILL couldn't figure out what the heck they were saying!

What WERE they saying, anyway?

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Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return

Postby MonteQuest » Thu 02 Mar 2006, 22:44:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'S')o does this mean they were never claiming nukes could "save" us?


No, it means bobcousins, at least, believes that "time required to implement" is not an issue. A weak strawman argument used to "punch out" the nuclear solution. At least, I think that is what he was trying to convey.

If just another ad hominem attack is the best he has got as a comeback....

Next anti-doomer?
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Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return

Postby grabby » Fri 03 Mar 2006, 00:06:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', ' ')...
If peak oil is at our door, and in planning terms—tomorrow, are we not beyond the point of no return?


We passed the point of no return in 1996. you can't fill an olympic size swimming pool with an alternat kitchen sink faucet, we should have plummed in a fire hydrant years ago.

now only a few people may stay cool, but unless you have a defensible island with no access, everyone is going to share whatever you have. We are all in this together, and the ride is going to tickle your stomachs.

Just do the best you can, Monte, you have helped many people prepare individually, thank you. But the big picture of governments collaberating will never happen. You did what you could, you will sleep well. May we always help all our neighbors and do what we can that is all we can do.

Our weak link now is that some mid easterners are TRYING to cut our oil off! Al kayda and venezuella and iran, when they wish we could be down 4 million barrels a day. In alternates that is 200,000,000 bushels of corn a day with plants to process them to ethanol. We do not have that. That is a sudden drain of 4 extra terrawatts a year on our electrical grid (DOUBLE) its capacity.
economy will slow and enomocs will be the first hit, this will snowball inflation with people dumping dollars etc etc dirivatives failing etc big problem.

then we are in it for the long haul, keeping head above water and slowling declinging, until the war. We will have lots of expensive oil until the war.
Last edited by grabby on Fri 03 Mar 2006, 00:23:33, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return

Postby rogerhb » Fri 03 Mar 2006, 00:16:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('grabby', 'M')ay we always help all our neighbors and do what we can that is all we can do.


Except for the ones at number 12, they've let down the tone of the whole neighbourhood, oh and those at 47, they're not real locals, they've only been here for 9 years.
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Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return

Postby grabby » Fri 03 Mar 2006, 00:28:35

We are persuaded that we have a good conscience, desiring to live honorably in all things.
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Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return

Postby bobcousins » Fri 03 Mar 2006, 00:33:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'S')o does this mean they were never claiming nukes could "save" us?


No, it means bobcousins, at least, believes that "time required to implement" is not an issue. A weak strawman argument used to "punch out" the nuclear solution. At least, I think that is what he was trying to convey.

If just another ad hominem attack is the best he has got as a comeback....

Next anti-doomer?


Come on Monte, saying that a proposition is a strawman is not an ad hominem attack! Or does the CoC now make just the fact of disagreement an ad hom? I never said what I thought the strawman was, you are just putting words in my mouth. Calling me an anti-doomer is clearly an ad hominem attack.

Would you like to apologise and ask me to clarify?

(Perhaps that last PM I sent must have really riled you up, eh Monte? If you like you can flame me in the HoF, you don't need to make snidey comments here....but enjoy your 15 minutes, the crowd are lapping it up....)

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', 'I')nteresting, is it not, that no anti-doomers have come along to support any of the purported solutions.

Perhaps, despite their pronouncements, they realize that the supposed solutions aren't.


They've probably all been banned or driven off, haven't they?

I'm sorry, but having stifled the opposition you guys are really delusional if you think this is a real debate. It's kinda surreal watching someone put up a question, then put up his own answers, then shoot them down. It's like watching someone playing with themself.
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Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return

Postby rogerhb » Fri 03 Mar 2006, 00:33:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('grabby', 'I') don't thank that far ahead


I wouldn't either, I would wait to thank after the event, or in anticipation just prior.
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Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return

Postby MonteQuest » Fri 03 Mar 2006, 00:47:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bobcousins', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'S')o does this mean they were never claiming nukes could "save" us?


No, it means bobcousins, at least, believes that "time required to implement" is not an issue. A weak strawman argument used to "punch out" the nuclear solution. At least, I think that is what he was trying to convey.

If just another ad hominem attack is the best he has got as a comeback....

Next anti-doomer?


Come on Monte, saying that a proposition is a strawman is not an ad hominem attack! Or does the CoC now make just the fact of disagreement an ad hom? I never said what I thought the strawman was, you are just putting words in my mouth.


No?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')efinitions of an ad hominem attack:

An ad hominem attack focuses on the character, motives, agenda, lack of credibility, professionalism, etc of an opponent, rather than debating the issue on the merits. Translated from Latin to English, "Ad Hominem" means "against the man" or "against the person."

An Ad Hominem is a general category of fallacies in which a claim or argument is rejected on the basis of some irrelevant fact about the author of or the person presenting the claim or argument.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')alling me an anti-doomer is clearly an ad hominem attack

So, you are a doomer? Asking for the next comeback from the pro nuclear crowd is exactly about debating the issue on the merits, which you still refuse to address. How is saying you are the opposite of me an ad hominem? I'm not trying to avoid the merits.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hey've probably all been banned or driven off, haven't they?

If they violated the COC, they may get banned. You are on thin ice here:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')oderator warnings:

Moderator warnings are to be respected. This is considered a more egregious offense than violations of the COC. Members who choose not to acknowledge moderator warnings, or who show lack of respect for the moderators, will be immediately banned for 2 weeks for Moderator Evasion.
Do not publicly accuse the moderators or administrators of bias.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')'m sorry, but having stifled the opposition you guys are really delusional if you think this is a real debate. It's kinda surreal watching someone put up a question, then put up his own answers, then shoot them down. It's like watching someone playing with themself.

Then why can't you weigh in instead of just complaining?
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Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return

Postby Jack » Fri 03 Mar 2006, 01:24:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bobcousins', '
')They've probably all been banned or driven off, haven't they?


Not a very strong assertion, which causes me to wonder about the foundation.

That said, some of them are quite amusing. The fellow who proposed sending giant spaceships to Jupiter to obtain methane comes to mind. I've had great fun at his expense.

Others are ever-so-serious; they seem determined to uplift the doomers and save the pessimists by the force of their personality. They seem to gravitate towards kilometer high (or is it mile high?) Australian chimney projects. Their collective mantra is "We gotta have hope!". Ahh, but perhaps I misunderstand. Perhaps Hope is an unchaste cabaret singer they chase after.

Then there are the high-tech big project people who tell all who will listen that pebble-bed Thorium sodium-cooled breeder reactors will save the day. They're fond of reports that purport to prove that limitless amounts of uranium can be extracted from seawater, with a substantial positive EROEI. They seem to think that the answer is at hand, if only they could convince the folks at Peakoil.com of it!

Finally, there are the occasional fusion proponents, followed closely by zero-point energy fans. Oh, yes, and switch grass. I mustn't forget enzyme digested, naturally grown, bio-fuel rich, switch grass.

But ban them or drive them away? Perish the thought! Life would be so very dull without them.
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Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return

Postby crapattack » Fri 03 Mar 2006, 02:24:14

ahem. Bobcousins, if you're so sore that all the pro-nukes getting 'driven off' what exactly is your position, beyond griping. I'm still waiting for some brave soul to try to explain the pro-nuke position on the time to implement issue if we assume current peak. Otherwise, if it's just not defensible then nuke is a red herring.
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Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return

Postby rogerhb » Fri 03 Mar 2006, 03:57:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('crapattack', '.').. then nuke is a red herring.


But the fish are HUGE on the coast off Sizewell in East Anglia, they get warm water from the nuclear power station cooling system (heat exchange not radio-active water).
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Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return

Postby bullybe » Fri 03 Mar 2006, 04:21:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('holmes', 'T')hats the biggest thing for me right now: taxes.

I don't understand this at all. A collapse is imminent due to the confluence of three factors; peak oil, global warming, and loss of biodiversity. Our most important issues right now should be 1.deweaponizing nuclear warheads, 2.decommissioning nuclear power stations, 3.getting the message out, and 4.cleaning up rivers and land, in that order. Here's why. The first two especially can be carried out by an informed movement in locales(states, municipalities), but they need a fresh infusion of vision.
The third is going to be more difficult than the fourth on any kind of scale, due mostly to conglomerated corporate power, but the fourth will really rely on the third.
Main evidence being that the environmental movement didn't get underway until we had both orbital photos of the earth and Rachel Carson's renowned Silent Spring. There were tons of studies done on lead and PCBs but nothing so popularizing.
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Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return

Postby Doly » Fri 03 Mar 2006, 04:39:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bullybe', 'A') collapse is imminent due to the confluence of three factors; peak oil, global warming, and loss of biodiversity. Our most important issues right now should be 1.deweaponizing nuclear warheads, 2.decommissioning nuclear power stations, 3.getting the message out, and 4.cleaning up rivers and land, in that order.


1) What has deweaponizing nuclear warheads to do with peak oil, global warming or loss of biodiversity? Mind you, I don't disagree with doing that, I just don't see the link with the particular issues you mention.

2) Decommissioning nuclear power stations doesn't look like something that will help either of the three, as far as I can tell. If you think otherwise, please explain why.

3) I completely agree with getting the message out, but what is exactly the message you are thinking about?

4) I can see how cleaning up rivers and land (and don't forget air and sea) can help with loss of biodiversity. But what specifically do you suggest to do about peak oil? And about climate change? (Cleaning up carbon from the atmosphere doesn't look particularly easy, from what I've read, but if you have some plan, please share it.)
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Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return

Postby bobcousins » Fri 03 Mar 2006, 07:24:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('crapattack', 'a')hem. Bobcousins, if you're so sore that all the pro-nukes getting 'driven off' what exactly is your position, beyond griping. I'm still waiting for some brave soul to try to explain the pro-nuke position on the time to implement issue if we assume current peak. Otherwise, if it's just not defensible then nuke is a red herring.


{edited by MQ to remove accusations of bias}

If anyone doesn't think that the phrase "literally overnight" in Monte's initial post is setting up a giant strawman, then [ad hominen deleted]. Monte is a smart man, so knows that literally overnight means a period of 12 hours, which is preposterous. If he meant figuratively overnight, I'm sure he would have written that, but that is a rhetorical measure of time that means whatever you want.

I haven't seen anyone claiming any solutions can be implemented even figuratively overnight. And virtually no-one is saying that only nukes is a solution, the consensus is a nuclear/renewable/conservation. Where is FatherofTwo, he has a pretty sensible position, or has [accusation of bias deleted] too? I am not even pro-nuclear, I am pro-[accusation of bias deleted]. I am pretty sure the time to implement issue has been addressed, you could try the search function.

The idea that there is a singular point of no return is itself a [possible ad hominen deleted], so [possible ad hominen deleted]. It's just a [possible ad hominen deleted], so is [possible ad hominen deleted].

(I wrote my post then tried to edit for CoC compliance. I hope you still get the drift)
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Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return

Postby Ludi » Fri 03 Mar 2006, 07:31:33

Ok, so the strawman was Monte saying "literally overnight" when he meant "figuratively overnight." Lots of people make that mistake.


Thanks for clarifying, bobcousins.

I wish I could really understand what the nuke boosters are proposing, but I still can't tell....
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Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return

Postby bobcousins » Fri 03 Mar 2006, 07:38:13

{edited for bias accusations by MQ}
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