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Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sat 04 Mar 2006, 16:37:09

tut...tut

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Montequest', 'L')et's not get into another pro/con nuclear debate here.

You could substitute ethanol or tar sands in it's place.

Nuclear is just the most ardently argued here and I would like to hear their comeback.

Let's talk about the time required to implement any solution, even fusion.
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Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return

Unread postby KingM » Sat 04 Mar 2006, 17:19:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'P')ersonally, I'm not interested in "keeping intact our way of life." Our way of life is a losing game, and everything we do to hold onto it just makes its eventual demise more painful.


Surely you can't tell me there's nothing in our way of life that you don't wish we could keep ahold of. How about turning on the television and watching a show on the History Channel? What about the ability to go to the library and check out a book on any subject imaginable. What about a university education? No? How about immunizations then? What about the internet? Listening to the Beatles or Mozart? Indoor plumbing?

Surely there's something about modern life that you don't find corrupt and worthless?
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Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return

Unread postby TonyPrep » Sat 04 Mar 2006, 17:39:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', 'R')eality will force and nudge us toward sustainability as it is the only viable pathway for the survival of our species
Its being the only viable pathway won't necessarily nudge us towards sustainability. Life doesn't work like that. Having evolved the ability to be aware of our environment and our mortility, and the ability to project into the future and alter behaviour to alter that future, doesn't mean that we'll use those abilities to further the survival possibility of our species. We can hope for good outcomes, of course, but I suspect our much vaunted intelligence is likely to be our downfall. If we were as dumb as yeast, we'd probably get to some sustainable equilibrium. But as intelligent humans, I think it's more likely that we'll go through boom and bust until we can't survive the last bust.

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Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return

Unread postby TonyPrep » Sat 04 Mar 2006, 17:52:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KingM', 'S')urely there's something about modern life that you don't find corrupt and worthless?
I'm sure there are, but keeping one or two things is not keeping our current way of life. And maybe you can't have one without the others.

Anyway, each of us just wanting to keep our pet modern culture convenience does make it more likely to happen. It probably just makes it more likely that we'd fight to keep it all (the sum total of our pet conveniences), making it less likely that we'd keep any.

However, I'd vote for electric (internal) lighting and heating (powered locally by renewables, of course). Oh, and the capablity to build/maintain bikes. I think that would do me.

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Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return

Unread postby uNkNowN ElEmEnt » Sat 04 Mar 2006, 18:29:24

I think the reason most people think we are going for a hard crash and that most won't give up their blissful, consumer driven life styles is the same reason why the eco movement has had such a long hard road.

If people are told there is only so much oil and that we have to conserve it, they will privately think its up to the other guy becuase they "need" it. they will greedily go out and stock pile what little there is left and sit on it or try to make a profit off other peoples need/ misfortune. Its the greed thing that drives a lot of doomers (and myself) to believe that most of today's first worlders will kick and thrash all the way to the end.

We are driving of a very real and immediate cliff, very few are changing or care to change, it is mortivated by our greed and entitlement ideologies and won't change. I'm not saying this becasue I'm a doomer I'm saying it because that is what is happening right now before our very eyes!

Even now everyone is saying "something will save us" nukes or what have you. Its foolishly deluded to think that most North Americans will altruistically smarten up and do their part. that they will give over the last of the oil to keep nuclear generation going for future generations. Yeah, right!

Anyone who expects any modern government to do whats right, instead of what they and their cronies will profit from, is doing the head in the sand thing. Remember most people don't or won't even acknowledge peak oil to begin with. Its just not realistic.

We've thrashed out the Nuke thing here before and it just isn't realistic either. We've run the numbers. Not just decomissioning but just building the bloody things is oil intensive, running them is oil intensive. They are huge oil drains and the EROI isn't worth it. Wear are better off using the last of the oil in the most constructive manner but dare I point out the obvious?... that isn't happening. We've hit the peak and now all we can do is our best and hang on tight cause its about to get ....

You say coal is better than Nukes ecologically and I would reply that one is just as bad as the other. No, we are not about to get dumber just because we run out of oil, but its time to find something better and accept that our cushy, elitest, entitled lives are over. Time to digout the old work gloves and get smart about it.

Suck it up baby, this is what we've bought.
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Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return

Unread postby Jack » Sat 04 Mar 2006, 19:07:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 't')ut...tut


OK...so you want on-topic. 8)

A nuclear plant is characterised by high capital cost (around US$ 1500 per kilowatt) and low marginal operating costs (including fuel). http://www.uic.com.au/nip44.htm

Oil & Gas generates about 724 Billion KWh, as of the year 2000, in the U.S.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/nuclear/pa ... power.html

If we assume a 7.2% decline in availability of oil and gas, then we must replace half the generating capacity of oil and gas with nuclear.

Therefore, if we assume that we need to cover half the generation capacity of Oil and Gas over the next decade, we must replace 724E+9 kWh/2 or 363E+9kWh at a cost of $1,500 each. The cost would be:

544.5E+12 dollars, or 544.5 trillion dollars.

Spread out over 10 years, that equates the entire cost of all deficits, including the future cost of all entitlements, every year for a decade. In my opinion, that is not possible even in principle.

If we assume a 3.6% decline, the numbers require that we accomplish the same amount of construction in 19 years. So we would only have to spend 28 Trillion dollars each year for 19 years.

That's just the U.S., and it ignores decommissioning of any existing plants.

From the perspective of money alone, it doesn't seem possible. But perhaps someone could run a check on my numbers and see if I slipped a few decimals?
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Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return

Unread postby uNkNowN ElEmEnt » Sat 04 Mar 2006, 19:12:57

Image Gotta love numbers. Talk numerically to me!
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Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return

Unread postby Ludi » Sun 05 Mar 2006, 08:26:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KingM', '
')Surely there's something about modern life that you don't find corrupt and worthless?


Whoa! What's with the big fat old strawman there? Huh?

"our way of life is a losing game " does not equal "our way of life is corrupt and worthless."

Tired of this kind of crap, too, I can tell ya!
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Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return

Unread postby Ludi » Sun 05 Mar 2006, 08:33:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', '
')Nuclear energy waste disposal will be dealt with in the best availabe imperfect compromise given the existing infrastructure. If it serves as a bridge than this waste will be a legacy humans and other species will have to deal with probably beyond the life of our species. It is a cost and not a perfect solution.


That's so irresponsible, I can't express to you my emotions mixed of disgust, anger, despair.

And you ADVOCATE this irresponsibility. This is what you leave to your children and everyone else's children.


Anyway, I'm sorry for going off topic. But I guess I got the answer to my question how will new nuke plants be serviced and decommissioned in a low-energy future.


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Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return

Unread postby TheTurtle » Sun 05 Mar 2006, 10:19:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', ' ')Personally Ludi, I am not either. Personally, I deplore the loss of species and habitat degradation as a result of our way of life. The ecologist in me is saddened. But that is my personal idealogy. I can not impose this on the collective human culture.


Surely those of us who understand why we have arrived at the sorry state in which we are now mired have some responsibility to explain it to others; no?
The collective human culture was shaped during the past 10 millennia by those who pursued profit at all costs ... is there to be no balance to that? Must we just sit quietly and accept it as status quo? :cry:
“Humankind has not woven the web of life. We are but one thread within it. Whatever we do to the web, we do to ourselves.” (Ted Perry)
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Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return

Unread postby Ibon » Sun 05 Mar 2006, 17:06:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', ' ')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', '
')Nuclear energy waste disposal will be dealt with in the best availabe imperfect compromise given the existing infrastructure. If it serves as a bridge than this waste will be a legacy humans and other species will have to deal with probably beyond the life of our species. It is a cost and not a perfect solution.


That's so irresponsible, I can't express to you my emotions mixed of disgust, anger, despair.

And you ADVOCATE this irresponsibility. This is what you leave to your children and everyone else's children.



$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('The Turtle', '
')
Surely those of us who understand why we have arrived at the sorry state in which we are now mired have some responsibility to explain it to others; no?
The collective human culture was shaped during the past 10 millennia by those who pursued profit at all costs ... is there to be no balance to that? Must we just sit quietly and accept it as status quo?


In both of the above quotes there is a shared common misunderstanding. The idealist in me shares Ludi's outrage as to the irresponsibility of advocating nuclear and the legacy this will leave behind.
The idealist in me also does not want to sit quietly as The Turtle states as species go extinct. The idealist in me is explaining this to others every chance I get just as the idealist in me has a wonderful vision of a utopic sustainable society that I would cut my hand off in order to achieve.

But we are past the point of no return (Thanks Monte) in having a chance in hell to make these idealogical visions succeed before our modern human culture goes through the dance in the fire of attempting solutions and getting repeatedly thrown back on their collective asses with each vain attempt.

So the hard core realist in me takes the stand to advocate the least destructive alternatives understanding fully that human society is going to go all out and try to fight the inevitable. I'll go one step further. It's only through the outcome of losing this upcoming battle that a new idealogical sustainable paradigm will be embedded in our culture, not before.

Like many doomers, or sould I say realists, I recognize the collective human state of affairs today is heading us toward the cliff. Unlike many doomers however the outcome is not programmed to collapse, there is the potential of radical human adaptation possible once the force of change is reality based and not idealogical based. In other words, when we don't any longer have a choice.


I invite anyone here to present me a scenario where the idealogical shift toward sustainability can happen before reality imposes it on us.
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Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return

Unread postby Ibon » Sun 05 Mar 2006, 17:06:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', 'R')eality will force and nudge us toward sustainability as it is the only viable pathway for the survival of our species
Its being the only viable pathway won't necessarily nudge us towards sustainability. Life doesn't work like that. Having evolved the ability to be aware of our environment and our mortility, and the ability to project into the future and alter behaviour to alter that future, doesn't mean that we'll use those abilities to further the survival possibility of our species. We can hope for good outcomes, of course, but I suspect our much vaunted intelligence is likely to be our downfall. If we were as dumb as yeast, we'd probably get to some sustainable equilibrium. But as intelligent humans, I think it's more likely that we'll go through boom and bust until we can't survive the last bust.

Tony


My view on this is that we back ourselves into so many dead ends that belief, hope and idealogy become irrelevant. We will have no choice but to adapt sustainability in order to survive. The steps to get there though will be full of futile attempts as you point out in trying every means possible to defy the inevitable. My quasi "optimism" on cultural transformation happening in the future is based on unsurmountable environmental and physical events forcing cultural adaptation toward sustainability. Those physical reality events will eventually embed themselves in our culture and may even move our value system away from consumerism. It is no certainty.
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Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return

Unread postby Ibon » Sun 05 Mar 2006, 17:29:23

I don't want to send any one to their local mental health institute but the upcoming struggle will most likely outlast most of our natural lives and remain an unresolved issue before we pass away. We should be prepared that we all may die without taking with us the hope or knowledge of the outcome of our species struggle with their future survivability.
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Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return

Unread postby lateStarter » Sun 05 Mar 2006, 18:26:43

I think that the quote attributed to Winston Churchill wrt the US is applicable to the whole world at this point: roughly paraphrased - "We can count on America (now - the world) to do the right thing after all other possibilites have been exhausted." Of course, this time it wil be too late.
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Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return

Unread postby Ibon » Sun 05 Mar 2006, 18:45:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lateStarter', 'I') think that the quote attributed to Winston Churchill wrt the US is applicable to the whole world at this point: roughly paraphrased - "We can count on America (now - the world) to do the right thing after all other possibilites have been exhausted." Of course, this time it wil be too late.


I agree. Except with the assumption that this time it will be too late. Don't underestimate the potential of human cultural adaptation once we hit up against physical obstacles that conflict with our current consumer driven culture.
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Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return

Unread postby crapattack » Mon 06 Mar 2006, 01:11:30

azreal60wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Servicing? Just because we start to have low energy doesn't mean we have low intelligence. It will still be just as easy to teach skills in the future. So servicing isn't as big an issue. And the fact that we Don't reproccess fuel in the US means there is alot of room for improvement.

Decommissioning? The same way they are decommissioned today. Keep in mind, i'm not talking hundreds of new nuke plants like alot of the nuke people are.


Your answer to Ludi's question belies your profound lack understanding of nuclear. Nuclear reactors require approximately 25 - 40 tonnes of fuel a year (depending on the reactor), this uranium has to be mined and processed into enriched uranium (boosting the uranium from about .07% to 3.5% and removing most of the U-238) at an enrichment plant and shipped to a fabrication plant and packaged into suitable form (usually into pellets and then inserted into zircalloy or stainless steel tubes to form rods) for reactors to use. Much of this mining, manufacturing and transportation capacity would be vastly diminished or non-functional in a post-crash low energy senerio.

Add to that the fact that reactors and enrichment plants require highly specialized skills and highly trained people to run them properly - nuclear physists and engineers, not like some bloke who took a night course the local community college. You seem to think we could get some of these trained up in no time in the low energy world. Do you or any pro-nukes have a plan for this?

Add to that the reactors have to be maintained and constantly require very specific highly machined parts. These parts just don't come from your local heat and furnace repair shop, nor can they be grubbed and thrown together with some spare wire and electrical tape you scrounged from a doityourselfer's basement shop. They are manufactured specifically for reactor types and highly technogically advanced, requiring a cheap energy economy to produce them. Many of these complex parts are machined to within microscopic tolerences and are the epitome of current manufacturing capability. The pressure vessel, high density boral racks that house spent fuel, advanced metals and alloys like boral and zircalloy, gadolinium, titanium, ceramics alloys, and even common items like gaskets, seals, stainless steel, pipes, pumps, circuit boards and electrical cables all currently require the modern industrial complex to produce them, and all of this would be required in reactor maintenance. Not only this but you have to also be able to maintain very finely balanced electrical grids and distribution networks, and this requires electric companies with trained staff, vehicles, equipment, parts, computers - all the modern products of a fossil economy.

Then to be able to safely decommission these plants within the post-crash low energy world is an enormous task. Decommissioning a nuke plant is long and not un-technical task that requires many types of specialities and facilities that simply won't be functional in a post-crash low energy world. From dismantling to disposal it will be energy instense. Looking at disposal of HL waste alone, dry casks for storage (we are talking hundreds of nuke plants here) need to be manufactured, disposal sites monitored and staffed. Transportation casks constructed, large trucks, burial sites, all of which currently rely on fossil fuels and/or the modern industrial complex.

Assuming we are peaking now and don't have until 2025, how you expect to do this in a post crash economy when fossil fuel is vastly expensive, when cash has left the markets, the housing market has tanked and most people are in a hard-scrabble fight for survival is a mystery to me. Frankly, I've yet to hear a pro-nuke solution that addresses any of these issues plausibly. If the nuclear option is really valid then this question must be addressed.
Last edited by crapattack on Mon 06 Mar 2006, 04:03:39, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return

Unread postby MonteQuest » Mon 06 Mar 2006, 01:29:41

Come on guys and gals. I don't want to have to split this thread.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'L')et's not get into another pro/con nuclear debate here.

You could substitute ethanol or tar sands in it's place.

Nuclear is just the most ardently argued here and I would like to hear their comeback.

Let's talk about the time required to implement any solution, even fusion.


Post a link to your argument in an appropriate nuclear thread.
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Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return

Unread postby azreal60 » Mon 06 Mar 2006, 01:58:13

Hehe. See, this is what you get for taking the middle road. Or perhaps for advancing a position you don't really believe in so others can shoot it........

Unlike Aaron, I don't always Announce my devils advocate posts. Keep that in mind.

I must say it was interesting to be against the majority board opinion for a change. You guys really do know how to bring a person down a few stripes.

Monte, sorry, I didn't mean to get off on nuclear. I just happened to see an arguementive point where i felt someone needed to come in and say something, because the pro nuc's where getting killed. =_)

Let's see.. pulling the threat back on point of no return, really, it's what you'll accept after the point of no return that defines when that point of no return is. If you want society as it is now, yes, we have already passed that point of no return. A completely safe power down, pretty sure we have passed that point of no return as well. A powerdown with a good amount of violence and resource wars involved, I think that's the point we are about to pass. A completely violent almost extinction of the human race powerdown, we haven't gotten to that one quite yet. Although there are bad signs....


So what are you willing to accept post point? That's your answer on when it is...
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Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return

Unread postby TonyPrep » Mon 06 Mar 2006, 03:00:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', 'W')e should be prepared that we all may die without taking with us the hope or knowledge of the outcome of our species struggle with their future survivability.
I'm not sure that most people would view it as a struggle for survival of the species. Survival of the species is never an objective for any organism (apart from aberations). Hopefully, many of us will at least be able to say that it looks like our kids and grandkids won't be too badly off.

This change might spur the evolution of a more "successful" species. I'm sorry not to be around for that.

Or maybe not!

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Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return

Unread postby bobcousins » Mon 06 Mar 2006, 07:56:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'G')et real! You think I write threads based upon a strawman so I can win an easy debate victory?


That's how it appears.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hat notion is a strawman. You attack my debating tactics rather than debate the issues?


Of course. If the argument presented is pure exaggeration or a strawman, there is no issue to debate.

In my world, the tactics people use to win a debate are not above criticism.
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