by bobcousins » Tue 07 Mar 2006, 15:00:43
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 't')ut...tut
OK...so you want on-topic.

A nuclear plant is characterised by high capital cost (around US$ 1500 per kilowatt) and low marginal operating costs (including fuel).
http://www.uic.com.au/nip44.htmOil & Gas generates about 724 Billion KWh, as of the year 2000, in the U.S.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/nuclear/pa ... power.htmlIf we assume a 7.2% decline in availability of oil and gas, then we must replace half the generating capacity of oil and gas with nuclear.
Therefore, if we assume that we need to cover half the generation capacity of Oil and Gas over the next decade, we must replace 724E+9 kWh/2 or 363E+9kWh at a cost of $1,500 each. The cost would be:
544.5E+12 dollars, or 544.5 trillion dollars.
Spread out over 10 years, that equates the entire cost of all deficits, including the future cost of all entitlements, every year for a decade. In my opinion, that is not possible even in principle.
If we assume a 3.6% decline, the numbers require that we accomplish the same amount of construction in 19 years. So we would only have to spend 28 Trillion dollars each year for 19 years.
That's just the U.S., and it ignores decommissioning of any existing plants.
From the perspective of money alone, it doesn't seem possible. But perhaps someone could run a check on my numbers and see if I slipped a few decimals?
Jack, I think you have confused capacity with generation. You quote 1500/ per kW, then mix that with kWh, which is a different unit. To get annual kWh you need to multiply by the yearly operating time, say around 8,000* hours. That puts the total cost nearer $69 billion, according to my calculation. Suddenly it looks a lot more feasible!
Remember also that you can offset the cost of building plant against the cost of buying oil and gas, which is significant.
Edit: *According to the EIA link the capacity factor of nuclear is about 90%.