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Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return

Postby MicroHydro » Tue 28 Feb 2006, 19:18:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rogerhb', 'I') see it as a very uncoordinated smash and grab. Where lot's of individual actors have stuck their heads up and thought "christ, that looks bad" and they are all carving out what they can get using whatever resources they can command.


Yes, that is what I am doing. In the way that the western world measured ability in the mid 20th century - standardized multiple choice exams - I was ranked as highly gifted. I tried "to use my powers for good" as the cliche would put it. I gave a large portion of my energies to the 1970s "save the world" effort. Back then we knew we had a generation before peak to prepare. ZPG, greenpeace, alliance for survival, the human powered vehicle competition etc, etc, etc, I was there. I talked to the Pasadena Star News in December 1973 about peak oil - although not by that name - at Caltech we were well aware of the problem at the time. By 1980, it was pretty clear that the world didn't want to be saved.

Well, now the sweet light crude peak is more than 5 years in the past, and we have probably passed the "all liquids" peak as well. All major nations have become "soft dictatorships" or worse. The US has waged 4 recent wars (Iraq 1991, Kosovo, Afghanistan, Iraq 2003) with radioactive weapons and is poised to go with full nuclear detonations for the next one. The siberian permafrost has melted, releasing a wave of methane that will keep climate change going no matter what. As Ken Deffeyes has said, when the car has driven off the cliff, it if too late to put on the brakes. In retrospect, future historians - if any exist - will probably say TSHTF in 2000 with the dotcom crash in March and the neocon coup de etat in November.

In my lifetime, the world has added 4 billion people, much against the advice of Paul Erlich, and none of them are my children. (Expletive) the world. Now I am using my "powers" for myself. I am doing a completely legal "smash and grab" on the world financial markets to fund building my post peak lifeboat. Somebody was nice enough to sell me oil last year for $46. Thank you very much. The profits will pay for my farm, the dam and the hydroelectric generator.

I advise all other PO aware folks to use their knowledge to build whatever type of lifeboat is possible in their circumstances. The stupidity and short sightedness of the average person will work in your favour. Perhaps after the dieoff, the world will not only be humbled and poorer, perhaps it will be just a little smarter, wiser, and more resistant to propaganda/advertising.
"The world is changed... I feel it in the water... I feel it in the earth... I smell it in the air... Much that once was, is lost..." - Galadriel
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Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return

Postby Ludi » Tue 28 Feb 2006, 19:22:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gnm', 'I') am sure your income taxes are being well spent in Iraq Ludi...



What's with that strawman? I never said my taxes were being well spent.

I'm not paying any income taxes for '05 - "0" taxable income.

So go stuff it up yer hinder! :)
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Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return

Postby rogerhb » Tue 28 Feb 2006, 19:45:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MicroHydro', 'P')erhaps after the dieoff, the world will not only be humbled and poorer, perhaps it will be just a little smarter, wiser, and more resistant to propaganda/advertising


This is a excellent place to site a 'Pa' called 'The Alamo'.
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Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return

Postby MicroHydro » Tue 28 Feb 2006, 19:57:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rogerhb', 'T')his is a excellent place to site a 'Pa' called 'The Alamo'.


Actually, I have already chosen TEOTWAWKI Farm as the name of the place to site my Pa. And yes, cultivating good relations with the Tainui is essential. The locals fought each other long before Cook landed, they fought on both sides in the Waikato wars, and can be expected to have very local allegiances after collapse.

I am thinking of having these guys build the Pa:
http://www.formworksbuilding.com/
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Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return

Postby eric_b » Tue 28 Feb 2006, 20:08:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rogerhb', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'T')he only crash plan I see in place at the moment is one to escalate the debt beyond the comprehension of man.


I see it as a grab what you can before the gig falls apart.


That's how it feels to me too.

An end of the world feeding frenzy.
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Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return

Postby MonteQuest » Tue 28 Feb 2006, 20:11:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('holmes', 'T')hats the biggest thing for me right now: taxes. Give us all our money so at least the ones who want to invest in an ecological paradigm can invest ALL our earnings into it. Im finding out tho that even the most ardent "haters" of the current paradigm. the ones screaming constantly about how bad it is do not seem to want choices on taxes.


I just saw a CNN poll on a gas tax. 85% said no, even if it was to go towards alleviating global warming and dependence on foreign oil.

Main reason: a lack of accountability on how the money would really be spent. Also, if it is a choice between a sandwich and helping reduce the above issues, the sandwich wins.
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Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return

Postby MonteQuest » Tue 28 Feb 2006, 20:28:30

Let me be a bit specific here and steer this back on topic:

How it is that the advocates of nuclear power as a solution feel that time is on their side? Do they believe the USGS 2032 peak date?

Why is it not "beyond the point of no return" for them, given that the time required to have any significant impact is just not there?

Let's not get into another pro/con nuclear debate here.

You could substitute ethanol or tar sands in it's place.

Nuclear is just the most ardently argued here and I would like to hear their comeback.

Let's talk about the time required to implement any solution, even fusion.
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Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return

Postby Jack » Tue 28 Feb 2006, 20:40:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'H')ow it is that the advocates of nuclear power as a solution feel that time is on their side? Do they believe the USGS 2032 peak date?


I'm not at all sure that they "feel that time is on their side". They make statements AS IF they felt that the time mentioned was available. I believe they do this for three reasons:

1) Our society dismisses the passionate. So if a person points to a near-term emergency, they immediately lose all credibility.

2) Our society is self-indulgent. People do not want to sacrifice. A near-term emergency implies precisely that; lots of sacrifice for a distant goal. So those asking for sacrifice will be ridiculed, shunned, fired, and nullified.

3) People do not wish to think of upcoming privation and disaster. They refuse to believe it. And those advocating a rapid change-over must press that very argument to make their case.

Thus, we have a deep cultural bias against the message that something must be done immediately. This applies to funding agencies, governmental officials, private investors, and those advocating alternatives. We are blinded by our own hand. I suspect this state of affairs will continue until the scenario I outlined previously becomes operative.
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Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return

Postby MonteQuest » Tue 28 Feb 2006, 21:06:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'H')ow it is that the advocates of nuclear power as a solution feel that time is on their side? Do they believe the USGS 2032 peak date?


I'm not at all sure that they "feel that time is on their side". They make statements AS IF they felt that the time mentioned was available.


Then it becomes a solution in isolation, ignoring the time scalability factor in leu of having an answer/proposal/solution they can trot out. That is a patently disingenous message. Something a shill would do.

No, I think they do think there is time, but I don't know why they do, given the token moves in that direction so far.

Let's see if they weigh in on this thread and enlighten us....
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Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return

Postby JoeCoal » Tue 28 Feb 2006, 23:21:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rogerhb', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JoeCoal', 'H')ere's a proven method:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Albert the Alligator', '"')I didn't have no income last year, so I ain't gonna pay no tax on it!"


:-D


Which may only work in the deep south because the double negatives mean that you did have income and will pay tax on it.


Excuse me, in addition to all my worthless paper money, I have an equally worthless BA in English. Please pardon my poor attempt at humor, and I will attempt to be less clever in the future.
Last edited by JoeCoal on Wed 01 Mar 2006, 18:30:29, edited 1 time in total.
Good night, and good luck...
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Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return

Postby drew » Tue 28 Feb 2006, 23:45:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rogerhb', ' ')they've given up hope on making the world a better place and just seeing what they can do to get themselves higher up the ladder to add some security to what ever turns out.


Roger, Micro, how do you guys sharpen your incisors?

I prefer wood personally, as it is a little easier to digest than my gold and silver, which will do in a pinch I might add!

Gotta groom the whiskers, then off to bed, it is late.

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Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return

Postby savethehumans » Wed 01 Mar 2006, 01:09:06

Yes, we are beyond the point of no return.

Yes, it is too late to do much of anything about it.

No, having bunches of money isn't going to help these greedy folks, cuz money ain't gonna be worth squat.

No, alternative fuels and power sources are not going to come along and save the day.

We are SCREWED, people?

So why not just throw in the towel? Because you still have TODAY. Whatever has come/is coming, you do have the option of NOT being one of the marauding throngs (currently known as sheeple), bandits, coldhearted elitists, etc. You could just do what you can to make the lives of others and yourself better TODAY. Idealistic? Not really. I'm a big cynical skeptic sort. But I know also (from having it done for ME as well as my doing it for others) that a compliment here and a kindness there can make all the difference in at least ONE life, for ONE day.

Sure, it's good to plan relocalization and all. But we have no clue as to how bad the global panic is gonna be when everything comes tumbling down. An army of desperate people can destroy all our community planning in hours/days/weeks.

Still, preparation is necessary. Maybe communities here and there will get lucky. Maybe not. But the best-prepared can but do their best TODAY, and set up a system which will work if tomorrow, too, turns out to be a good TODAY.

Let's be honest, folks. It's gonna be hell on earth--literally, if the global warming scientists are right about speedy temperature rises--before anything settles down. You can take that knowledge, and give up. You can take it, and become part of a militia/fortress culture. You can take it, and stoop to the level of those who'll try to destroy any community lifeboat they find. Or, you can determine to set an example of how to live--which may well outlive YOU.

Each of us has that choice. I know which one I've made, cynical skeptic or not. Hope you all can live with your own choices--you're gonna have to!
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Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return

Postby nero » Wed 01 Mar 2006, 02:35:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'L')et me be a bit specific here and steer this back on topic:

How it is that the advocates of nuclear power as a solution feel that time is on their side? Do they believe the USGS 2032 peak date?


Well I'll take up the challenge.

I recognize that while it takes a very long time to construct infrastructure it takes very little time indeed to implement conservation. If there were an emergency and North America could not import any more oil from the rest of the world we would be able to make do. We couldn't continue consuming as we do now and it would require large adjustments but people CAN adapt. I expect there would be a sudden startling realization that alot of the things we had come to believe are necessities weren't really all that essential afterall.

Sure people would lose their jobs and lose their houses and move back in with their folks. Some people would be desparate and probably demand that the government do SOMETHING. Fortunately the government WOULD do something and the automatic stabilizers (welfare, food stamps soup kitchens etc.) would kick in to keep people from starving and to keep the economy from imploding.

So that was the worst case scenario where we cut our consumption in half overnight. Peak Oil in comparison is a picnic. It will be a very long emergency spanning decades durring which we will have alot of time to slowly implement changes in our lifestyle and habits and yes infrastructure to accomodate the fact that we live on a finite world.

People who believe that they must prepare their own lifeboat in advance of peak oil because it is already too late must believe that their fellow countrymen are so inept that they will be unable to adapt and civil society will collapse to the point where everyone is out strictly for themselves and their family. Probably you have to believe somehow that our fiat money will collapse and that no other system of trade will spring up and that the government will not be able to use their emergency powers to ensure that the necessities of life are still available. If you don't believe it is going to be quite that bad then I suggest you can remain fairly sanguine about sharing the fate of your fellow citizens in the face of peak oil and remain engaged in society.

Don't get me wrong, I don't mean that you should not worry about peak oil or not prepare, but that the steps necessary are more along the lines of getting out of debt, lobbying your local government to improve their public transit, get involved in educating people about the necessity for a more sustainable economy and remaining flexible enough to adjust to the new circumstances whatever they are.
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Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return

Postby rogerhb » Wed 01 Mar 2006, 02:49:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nero', 'I') recognize that while it takes a very long time to construct infrastructure it takes very little time indeed to implement conservation.


Of course Katrina demonstrated exactly how well all the wheels would swing into motion....

Alas, you missed out the scapegoating phase.
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Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return

Postby rogerhb » Wed 01 Mar 2006, 04:40:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MicroHydro', 'A')ctually, I have already chosen TEOTWAWKI Farm as the name of the place to site my Pa.


Or how about "Te Otwawki" to fit in?
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Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return

Postby crapattack » Wed 01 Mar 2006, 04:59:56

Monte, in my long and fruitless arguments with the nuke proponents on this forum I have often mentioned the time implementation issue, and like you, been quite unsatisfied with the answers. I have no idea how they think they can get several hundred plants built in NA let alone globally in nearly enough time to make any difference. A couple of the propoents (not mentioning names) have suggested that we will need over 200 plants to run what we are running now (personally I think it will be far more), and the most optomistic time frame is to have about 30 plants built by 2020 and they do think they have at least until 2030. I would also like to hear a realistic implementation plan for nuke or anything else that assumes we have peaked or are peaking now, but I won't hold my breath.

The other plan I am interested in hearing from the nukes is how they plan to run the plants, mine the uranium, maintain the plants and grids, and decommission them and dispose safely of the waste, post-crash and die-off when people are just trying to survive. I have heard scenarios suggesting the odd plant going critical once every 5 years or so as being quite acceptable risks to them.
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Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return

Postby MicroHydro » Wed 01 Mar 2006, 06:06:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rogerhb', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MicroHydro', 'A')ctually, I have already chosen TEOTWAWKI Farm as the name of the place to site my Pa.


Or how about "Te Otwawki" to fit in?


Brilliant! I like it. Unfortunately, otwawki doesn't mean anything, but it sounds right.

Getting back to Monte's question, I think that the nuclear advocates are counting on lots of things - demand destruction/conservation, more coal to liquids, more efficiency, and a slow depletion rate to allow enough time to make their infrastructure programs work for a few enclaves. To be honest, they probably don't expect to maintain a 20th century american lifestyle for the whole world, maybe just the top 5-10% of the population in the industrialized countries. I have never heard a nuclear advocate ever suggest that the 15,000 plants necessary to support the current energy usage could ever be built.
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Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return

Postby julianj » Wed 01 Mar 2006, 06:20:02

I too think we're past the peak, which is why I get so depressed trying to tell people about this and they think I'm a loonie. (actually I am...but that's not relevant to PO :) )

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he free market is our enemy, not our friend.


Well said, Monte!
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Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return

Postby rs » Wed 01 Mar 2006, 07:25:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MicroHydro', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rogerhb', 'I') see it as a very uncoordinated smash and grab. Where lot's of individual actors have stuck their heads up and thought "christ, that looks bad" and they are all carving out what they can get using whatever resources they can command.


{trim}

I am doing a completely legal "smash and grab" on the world financial markets to fund building my post peak lifeboat. Somebody was nice enough to sell me oil last year for $46. Thank you very much. The profits will pay for my farm, the dam and the hydroelectric generator.

.


Playing devil's advocate here, if the crash is as bad as some are predicting, how would you protect your farm, dam, generators etc.?

No doubt there will countless millions who will not have prepared in any way and will have lost everything. In that scenario 'ownership' would pretty much mean sod all to them and if you have something they need I can see some pretty ugly scenes happening.

This is what worries me when people talk about preparing for the crash. I can't see how buying land etc. can really help us long-term. Maybe preparation is more about survival techniques ie. martial arts, weapons, knowledge of agriculture, medicine and so on.

Maybe it won't end up in total anarchy that I fear.
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Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return

Postby Doly » Wed 01 Mar 2006, 08:20:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rs', '
')I can't see how buying land etc. can really help us long-term. Maybe preparation is more about survival techniques ie. martial arts, weapons, knowledge of agriculture, medicine and so on.

Maybe it won't end up in total anarchy that I fear.


I agree that skills are probably a lot more important than what you own post peak. You could lose whatever you own due to any combination of riots, government appropiations, natural disasters and unprecedented circumstances. But you can't possibly lose skills.

That said, I don't think material preparations are unreasonable (with the exception of food hoarding, which is my pet peeve). Even if things end up really badly, there will be some middle steps, and then being in a good position materially can help a lot.
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