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Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return

Postby MonteQuest » Thu 02 Mar 2006, 01:06:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', ' ')No doubt efforts to conserve can and will be made so that the energy used per unit of economic activity will diminsh - but only slowly.


Yes, few people seem to understand this. Conservation is like interest rates; raise rates too fast=recession, not fast enough=inflation. You conserve too much too fast and you will break something. We don't have decades to wean ourselves. It may be almost cold turkey--and it will hurt like hell.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
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Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return

Postby JohnDenver » Thu 02 Mar 2006, 01:21:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', 'A')nd, too, we presently have a robust underground economy. A $3 gas tax leaves sufficient margin for very profitable - but illicit - tax evasion. This would strengthen organized crime.


We'll solve that problem by taxing it at the source. Slap the tax on the crude at the pipeline, or when it floats into port. Everybody downstream will just pass it on to the consumer.
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Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return

Postby JohnDenver » Thu 02 Mar 2006, 01:33:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'I')t may be almost cold turkey--and it will hurt like hell.


I know what you mean. I experienced the worst possible form of cold turkey when I was a younger man, and you're right: it was horrible. Got over the hump fairly quickly though, and I've been feeling fine ever since. That's the great part about cold turkey. The pain is intense, but so is the pleasure when your natural health begins to return. :)
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Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return

Postby kochevnik » Thu 02 Mar 2006, 01:44:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('InnerSuburbia', 'B')ecoming a survivalist is no better than being a neocon. Both are all about looking out for your own *ss. Maybe if people would rediscover civic virtue everyone would be better off and we could pull ourselves out of this mess. Working together gives us hope. Becoming a survivalist just worsens the problem. I may die, but it will be with a clean conscience.

I can't let this one slide - you clearly show you understand NEITHER neocons, nor survivalists. A neocon is out to rule the world - a survivalist is out to do their damndest to keep the rulers of the world off their backs. I would also bet dollars to donuts that you have no one close to you, certainly no children.

When I was a boy, I spent the first 10 years of my life mostly living in 'inner suburbia'. About the time I was ten, my father moved us from the cushy life to a hard-scrabble country life. I went from HVAC to chopping 10 cords of wood each winter by hand. Many times I think about what a fundamental change this caused in my life - I am utterly convinced that it was one of the defining changes in my life. If I would have stayed a suburban brat, I would have grown up a slightly neurotic, fearful kid with a pretty big inferiority complex because I never really learned ANY skill (or hard life lesson) of any real consequence.

Every time I read a post like yours, I see the person I might have been had my father not made the decision he had. I see complacency, weakness and a certain small amount of (undeserved) smugness, especially about things which you clearly show you have no experience in the things you are so sure about. If you really, HONESTLY believe that your position on all this is : "I may die, but it will be with a clean conscience." then I feel truly sorry for you and anyone dependent upon you, because I would be willing to bet, you'll eventually get your wish.

For me, if I'm going down, I'll be kicking and screaming every millimeter of the way. The way I look at it, not only do my descendants depend on me, but my ancestors literally fought tooth and nail so that I could have the PRIVILEGE of having a place in human history at this particular point in time. If somehow was magically transported and forced to face my grandfather and my grandsons, forced to atone, to explain my actions during this time, I highly doubt any of them would give me one iota of slack for not doing my absolutely best to kick ass and take names along the way.

So many I see here, and in the real world, place their entire future in the hands of 'other' people. That's a crock, it's a copout, and it's completely lame. In spite of what the world may have drilled into your impressionable skull, being a candy-ass is not a sign of an evolved human being - it's just the sign of being a candy-ass.

"In a room full of people, the one you know the least about, is yourself." ~my father
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Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return

Postby Ibon » Thu 02 Mar 2006, 01:51:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')I dream of a cultural wakening, Ibon, but I don't see it happening until after conflict.


Conflict is definately a catalyst in this process of cultural awakening, along with pain and economic recession and massive unemployment that leads to a drastic reduction in energy consumption as we re-engineer our society. The humility will be beaten into us as the self entitlement gets beaten out. It will put a smile on the face of our grandfathers who have been turning in their graves. Kind of a giant purge......I compare it to the pain you feel right before those endorphins kick in when you are jogging or doing hard physical work......there are rewards. With each conflict endured is an opportunity of a new equilibrium that carries a smaller ecological footprint, more community, gratefulness etc. This could all take place with sufficient energy remaining to fuel the transformation of our culture toward an awakening that embraces more sustainable principals....out of neccessity because there is no choice...imposed by reality, not by a government, religion, or any other authority......there is personal freedom still possible in this scenario.....and far more integrity, self respect for oneself, others and ones environment..... if I compare this again to simple communities in developing countries, you see, people are rich in their pride, their word, their personal integrity, but poor in material things.........as were our grandfathers......as can once again be the case with our grandchildren.......this is not a vision of giving up technology and advances in science and energy.....this would be preserved so that material objects support the balance and are not a means into themselves....the computer would be a tool next to the axe..............this is all a pleasant reverie to imagine such a world evolving out of this ugly materialism......not impossible......we have nothing to lose to hold ourselves to such a vision and standard.......this self preservation almost seems like common sense......what a child knows in not touching the hot coals.....but only after he learned it once because he got burned......and like the child our modern culture perhaps would never have been able to reach this imaginary future sustainable world without first having burned our collective fingers.......we are only now just beginning to raise our hand from the burning coals and saying.....OUCH........:)
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Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return

Postby Ibon » Thu 02 Mar 2006, 02:05:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', ' ')That's the great part about cold turkey. The pain is intense, but so is the pleasure when your natural health begins to return. :)

That's some pleasant serendipity; I read your post only after having posted what I wrote above and you mentioned virtually the same phenomenom.
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Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return

Postby TonyPrep » Thu 02 Mar 2006, 03:37:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'I')t all depends on how much time you think we've got 'til peak. Mike Lynch, for example, believes we've got more than 50 years. The abiotic crowd think we've got forever. So it depends on who you ask.

If peak oil means the end of cheap, readily available oil, then the peak is here, economically.
I agree, but my point is that some people (and they have the most seductive argument) don't believe we've seen the end of cheap abundant oil. Some people expect prices to drop again and for production and refinery capacity to rise worldwide for another n decades (where n is greater than 5).

Also, Bush is going to reduce dependence on foreign oil in 15 years, the Swedes are going to eliminate dependence on oil in 15 years. There are loads of mitigation strategies and a soft landing is assured, especially with all the time we've got! Of course, one may choose to treat such notions with a touch of disbelief.
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Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return

Postby Jack » Thu 02 Mar 2006, 08:34:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', 'A')nd, too, we presently have a robust underground economy. A $3 gas tax leaves sufficient margin for very profitable - but illicit - tax evasion. This would strengthen organized crime.
We'll solve that problem by taxing it at the source. Slap the tax on the crude at the pipeline, or when it floats into port. Everybody downstream will just pass it on to the consumer.

Smuggle it in from Mexico. I hear lots of things are presently being smuggled in from that direction. 8)
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Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return

Postby Ludi » Thu 02 Mar 2006, 08:44:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rogerhb', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'I')t would mean a GLOBAL CONSENSUS on conservation. When have we ever had a global consensus on anything? How long do you think it would take to convince EVERYONE to conserve? A heck of a long time; it would mean changing the goals and ideals of our culture itself.
No, that is not what the "Oil Depletion Protocol" claims. It says those who abide by it will benefit in the long run. If you don't abide by it then you may find that countries that do may decide to boycott you. In theory this would mark the end of globalisation/free-trade.

Who is currently adhering to the Oil Depletion Protocol? When will they start adhering to it?
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Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return

Postby Ludi » Thu 02 Mar 2006, 08:49:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', 'A')nd, too, we presently have a robust underground economy. A $3 gas tax leaves sufficient margin for very profitable - but illicit - tax evasion. This would strengthen organized crime.


We'll solve that problem by taxing it at the source. Slap the tax on the crude at the pipeline, or when it floats into port. Everybody downstream will just pass it on to the consumer.


When?
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Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return

Postby jupiters_release » Thu 02 Mar 2006, 13:07:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'I')t may be almost cold turkey--and it will hurt like hell.


I know what you mean. I experienced the worst possible form of cold turkey when I was a younger man, and you're right: it was horrible. Got over the hump fairly quickly though, and I've been feeling fine ever since. That's the great part about cold turkey. The pain is intense, but so is the pleasure when your natural health begins to return. :)


But what if we're the bad habit that needs dropped? :lol:
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Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return

Postby bobcousins » Thu 02 Mar 2006, 18:02:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'N')uclear is just the most ardently argued here and I would like to hear their comeback.


Heh, now that's funny. :lol:

You set up the strawman, then let the doomers tear it apart. Cute.
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Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return

Postby Ludi » Thu 02 Mar 2006, 19:07:07

What's the strawman?
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Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return

Postby rogerhb » Thu 02 Mar 2006, 19:18:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'W')hat's the strawman?


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Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return

Postby rogerhb » Thu 02 Mar 2006, 19:21:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'I')t would mean a GLOBAL CONSENSUS on conservation.
.......
Who is currently adhering to the Oil Depletion Protocol? When will they start adhering to it?


Alas, none so far, Sweden is the closest in principle. However I was trying to say that it does not have to be 100%, at the ones that do adopt, benefit in the long run.

My honest opinion is the US does not have a 15cm diameter sphere of H2O at 269 degrees kelvin in Hades chance of adopting such a protocol.
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Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return

Postby Jack » Thu 02 Mar 2006, 19:34:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bobcousins', 'Y')ou set up the strawman, then let the doomers tear it apart. Cute.


Interesting, is it not, that no anti-doomers have come along to support any of the purported solutions.

Perhaps, despite their pronouncements, they realize that the supposed solutions aren't.

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Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return

Postby TonyPrep » Thu 02 Mar 2006, 20:58:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kochevnik', 'T')he way I look at it, not only do my descendants depend on me, but my ancestors literally fought tooth and nail so that I could have the PRIVILEGE of having a place in human history at this particular point in time.
A very good point, kochevnik. This much is guaranteed: for everyone living now, all of their forebears were survivors. This can be the end of that proud line or it can be a continuation. It's our choice.
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Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return

Postby MonteQuest » Thu 02 Mar 2006, 21:07:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rogerhb', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'I')t would mean a GLOBAL CONSENSUS on conservation.
.......
Who is currently adhering to the Oil Depletion Protocol? When will they start adhering to it?


Alas, none so far, Sweden is the closest in principle. However I was trying to say that it does not have to be 100%, at the ones that do adopt, benefit in the long run.


On the contrary, do you think the global economy can function if some conserve and some squander? No one benefits in the long run if one's loses become another's gains. Or better put, one's decrease in oil consumption becomes another's increase.
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Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return

Postby rogerhb » Thu 02 Mar 2006, 21:20:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'O')n the contrary, do you think the global economy can function if some conserve and some squander? No one benefits in the long run if one's loses become another's gains. Or better put, one's decrease in oil consumption becomes another's increase.


I'm not expecting to global economy to continue to function. What I'm saying is if you start to cut back on your inputs, as per the ODP, then your country will be able to powerdown in a more stable manner.

If other countries say, way-hey, there is more oil now available due to other countries not using it voluntarily, they are the ones that will hit the brick wall.

I am not concerned if other countries choose to run at the brick wall as long as they don't start a nuclear war in a huff.
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Re: Peak Oil: Beyond the Point of No Return

Postby MonteQuest » Thu 02 Mar 2006, 21:22:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bobcousins', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'N')uclear is just the most ardently argued here and I would like to hear their comeback.


Heh, now that's funny. :lol:

You set up the strawman, then let the doomers tear it apart. Cute.


There you have it, folks.

Raising the "time" element required to build the nuke plants is a strawman.

A weak argument set up by me to win an easy, showy victory by proxy. :roll:
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