Previous long-term government, industry oil forecasts badly overestimated supply; why should we listen now?

[I]f you’re still operating under the assumption that the earth’s petroleum–or at least the cheap stuff–is about to run out, you’re not going to thrive in the new oil era. Technology is making it possible to find, produce, and refine oil so efficiently that its supply, at least for practical purposes, is basically unlimited. –Businessweek, […]

Iran says oil revenues down by half

Iran’s oil revenues have been cut in half this year compared with last year, a newspaper quoted Iran’s economic minister as saying, an admission of how deeply Western sanctions are cutting Tehran’s chief source of funds. U.S. and European Union sanctions are designed to slash oil revenues to starve Tehran of funds that might be […]

Tech Talk – Iran and the new EIA and OPEC Reports

With the possibility that demand for Iranian oil may fall below 1 million barrels a day (mbd) as sanctions continue to bite, Iran has announced that it wants OPEC to cut back production to the agreed quotas, rather than the overall additional 1 mbd that is actually being produced, and sold. Such a move would, […]

Fracking’s Future

  Supplies of natural gas now economically recoverable from shale in the United States could accommodate the country’s domestic demand for natural gas at current levels of consumption for more than a hundred years: an economic and strategic boon, and, at least in the near term, an important stepping-stone toward lower-carbon, greener energy. But even […]

Exxon: The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040

Over the Outlook period, the growth in so-called “unconventional” supplies due to technology advancements is critical. ExxonMobil projects total liquids demand to rise to 113 million barrels per day of oil equivalent (MBDOE) in 2040, a 30 percent increase from 2010. About 70 percent of this increase is tied to the transportation sector. Conventional crude […]

The Bumpy Plateau Tilts Upward

Every month I post the numbers for total oil supply, which seems to me the best way to get a sense for the issues around peak oil: how much the global oil supply is actually able to increase or decrease. However, when you look closely, “oil” turns out to be a slippery concept with the […]

Is California Up Next For An Oil And Gas Boom?

Listen to the Story [4 min 22 sec] Download  December 12, 2012 from KQED The Bureau of Land Management is auctioning off 18,000 acres of oil leases in California Wednesday. The state has one of the largest deposits of shale oil in the country. And it’s attracting new attention because of the drilling technique known […]

Total CEO: New Peak Oil Production Seen at 98 Million Barrels/Day

New discoveries and technological advances have increased the oil industry’s ability to increase production in recent years, pushing global maximum oil production to 98 million barrels per day for longer than initially expected, Total SA’s (TOT) Chairman and Chief Executive Christophe de Margerie said Tuesday. Global oil production should plateau at that level for some […]

OPEC Seen On Track to Maintain Current Oil Production Ceiling

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries Monday appeared to still be on track to maintain its current oil production ceiling, after officials from member countries said conditions in the market support the status quo. OPEC’s internal forecasts show demand for its crude oil continuing at around 30 million barrels a day in 2013, in […]

North American oil and gas—2: The pressure on Mexico

  Elements of change are in place in Mexico. Nothing guarantees they’ll be activated. But as new promise for oil supply comes to light in the US and Canada, the mere possibility that Mexico will make essential reforms enhances the promise of a North American boom. With oil and gas, Mexico has been xenophobic since […]

China’s Economic Planners Approve Shale Project

China’s top economic planning body has approved a shale-oil exploration project between China National Petroleum Corp., the country’s largest energy producer, and a foreign partner in the northwestern Xinjiang Uyghur autonomous region, it said Monday on its website. The National Development and Reform Commission approved the project in November. It didn’t name the foreign company […]

Tech Talk – Iranian Oil and the Global Future

There is a lot going on in the Middle East at the moment. There is the revolution in Syria which seems now to be entering some form of end game, and there are the riots in Egypt. There are some signs that these events might move on to countries such as Jordan. Increasing levels of […]

This chart explains why the US is irrationally exuberant about self-sufficient oil production

Numerous authoritative voices have weighed in with a forecast that, with some help from neighboring Canada and Mexico, the US will become more or less self-sufficient in oil production in a few years and even start exporting. If they are right—has anyone yet learned the sad lessons of mass market enthusiasm?—it  will be perhaps only […]

Oil Watch – Rest of World Oil Production (IEA)

Executive Summary This is the final installment of the tour of global crude + condensate + natural gas liquids (C+C+NGL) production data as published by the International Energy Agency (IEA) and deals with the rest of the world. OPEC and OECD production was described in earlier posts. After many decades of growth, Chinese oil production […]

China Warns Vietnam on Oil Exploration

China on Thursday demanded that Vietnam stop unilateral oil and gas activity in a naval area claimed by both nations, after a spat between the two countries flared up earlier this week. The state-run Vietnam Oil & Gas Group said Monday that two Chinese fishing vessels cut the cables of a Vietnamese vessel doing seismic […]

UK oil output seen rising in next few years -study

Britain’s North Sea oil output, long in decline, is likely to increase in the next few years, according to research published on Wednesday, reflecting the impact of rising investment, high prices and tax breaks. Oil output will reach 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2017 based on an oil price of $90 a barrel, […]

Oil Watch – OECD oil production (IEA)

Executive summary According to BP, OECD oil production (C+C+NGL) peaked at 21.67 million bpd in 1997. Monthly production data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) now suggests that production has been stable for 5 years at around 18.5 million bpd (Figure 1). The North Sea (UK and Norway) is still in steep decline. This has […]

Global oil production up in 2012 as reserves estimates rise again

Global production and reserves of crude oil and lease condensate both increased in 2012, according to Oil & Gas Journal’s annual Worldwide Production report. Reserves of natural gas increased slightly between Jan. 1, 2012, and Jan. 1, 2013. OGJ estimates average worldwide oil production in 2012 at 75.72 million b/d, up 2.9% from the 2011 […]

Iran plans to increase crude oil production, up to 5.2 million barrels per day by 2016

Iran’s oil minister has said the country plans to increase its oil production capacity to up to 5.2 million barrels per day by early 2016. A Sunday report by state TV quotes Rostam Ghasemi as saying this requires some $300 billion investment in the oil industry. He says current capacity is about four million barrels […]

A new world of American energy independence

The United States is soon to be awash in oil and natural gas, positively brimming with the stuff whose scarcity and unreliability of supply has plagued us since the end of World War II. It is a remarkable, stunning turn of events — largely unforeseen just a few years ago yet now an imminent although […]

Russian Oil Output Hits Record 10.5 Million Barrels a Day

Russia’s crude oil and condensate output climbed to a post-Soviet record of 10.503 million barrels a day in November, beating the high reached the previous month, according to the Energy Ministry’s CDU-TEK unit. Crude and condensate production rose 0.5 percent compared with revised data for October and 1.5 percent from November of last year, according […]

Russian oil production to 2020

Uncertainty continues whether Russia can maintain its high level of oil production – 10.7 million b/d in 2012 to date on average. A new more benign tax regime which has recently been put in place, and significant industry investments may plausibly enable the Russian Bear to extend its “plateau production” to 2020. This post below […]

Liquid Natural Gas Could be Slated as America’s Energy Surprise Weapon

In view of President Obama’s resounding election victory, the previously hoped-for outburst of fossil fuels (oil, natural gas, coal) would seem to be headed at best for a current level holding pattern. While Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney had put fossil fuels and fracturing technology at the head of the drive toward energy independence, the […]

World Energy Report 2012

Rarely does the release of a data-driven report on energy trends trigger front-page headlines around the world.  That, however, is exactly what happened on November 12th when the prestigious Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) released this year’s edition of its World Energy Outlook.  In the process, just about everyone missed its real news, which should […]

Iraq again on the front lines of energy

Nearly a decade ago, Iraq was in flames as the United States staged its second invasion of the country. The war not only toppled Saddam Hussein, it also led to a gradual rebirth of the country’s oil and gas sector, which was crippled by conflict and sanctions. Now, after years of rebuilding its energy infrastructure, […]

Iran: Plans to increase gas production

Managing-Director of Pars Oil and Gas Company Mousa Souri announced that Iran will increase gas production in the giant South Pars gas field, adding that the country will surpass Qatar’s gas production in the shared field. Speaking on Sunday, Souri said Iran’s gas recovery from South Pars would equal Qatar’s after five new phases of […]

Oil Watch – OPEC crude oil production (IEA)

Executive summary OPEC is currently pumping at close to near term and historic highs of 31.2 mmbpd of crude oil. Outside of Saudi Arabia, the majority of spare capacity is deemed to lie in Iran and Nigeria. Iran could certainly pump more if permitted to do so by the international community. It is doubtful that […]

Oil Supply Is Rising, but Demand Keeps Pace and Then Some

IT used to be taken for granted that as economies grew, they would use more oil. That was a major reason cited in warnings that the world would run out of oil, particularly if standards of living rose in developing countries. Well, standards of living are improving in developing countries, but the dire forecasts now […]

Bakken revolution is only half-complete

Crude production from the Bakken and Three Forks formations could rise by another 50-100 percent in the next three years, and not start to decline until 2020 or even 2025, according to official projections from the North Dakota Oil and Gas Division. Output from the Bakken, Three Forks and Sanish formations hit a new record […]

Oil Watch – World Total Liquids Production

World total liquid fuel production data published by the International Energy Agency (IEA) suggests that global liquid fuel production has risen steadily (in stages) from 76.3 million barrels per day (mmbpd) in January 2002 to a recent high of 91.3 mmbpd in July 2012. +15 mmbpd represents a 20% uplift in liquid fuel supply in […]

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