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Page added on December 15, 2012
Exxon: The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040
Over the Outlook period, the growth in so-called “unconventional” supplies due to technology advancements is critical. ExxonMobil projects total liquids demand to rise to 113 million barrels per day of oil equivalent (MBDOE) in 2040, a 30 percent increase from 2010. About 70 percent of this increase is tied to the transportation sector.
Conventional crude production from both OPEC and Non OPEC sources will see a slight decline over time. However, this decline is more than offset by rising production of crude oil from deepwater, oil sands and tight oil resources.
The successes of deepwater and oil sands developments are examples of how new technologies are key to delivering additional sources of liquid supplies to meet rising demand. Ten years ago, these supplies were barely on the radar screen.
Over the Outlook period, the growth in so-called “unconventional” supplies due to technology advancements is critical. ExxonMobil projects total liquids demand to rise to 113 million barrels per day of oil equivalent (MBDOE) in 2040, a 30 percent increase from 2010. About 70 percent of this increase is tied to the transportation sector.
Conventional crude production from both OPEC and Non OPEC sources will see a slight decline over time. However, this decline is more than offset by rising production of crude oil from deepwater, oil sands and tight oil resources.
The successes of deepwater and oil sands developments are examples of how new technologies are key to delivering additional sources of liquid supplies to meet rising demand. Ten years ago, these supplies were barely on the radar screen.
Oil, gas and coal continue to be the most widely used fuels, and have the
scale needed to meet global demand, making up about 80 percent of total energy
consumption in 2040.
Natural gas will grow fast enough to overtake coal for the number-two position
behind oil. Demand for natural gas will rise by more than 60 percent through 2040. For
both oil and natural gas, an increasing share of global supply will come from
unconventional sources such as those produced from shale formations.
Gains in efficiency through energy-saving practices and technologies – such
as hybrid vehicles and new, high-efficiency natural gas power plants – will temper
demand growth and curb emissions.
Global energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will grow slowly, then
level off around 2030. In the United States and Europe, where a shift from coal to
less carbon-intensive fuels such as natural gas already is under way, emissions will
decline through 2040.
ExxonMobil uses The Outlook for Energy to guide our global investment decisions.
Because we know that the world’s energy future will be shaped by decisions
made not just by companies like ours, but also by policymakers and consumers, we
share this document publicly to encourage a broader understanding of energy issues
that affect us all.
5 Comments on "Exxon: The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040"
GregT on Sat, 15th Dec 2012 10:13 pm
It is time to take back our children’s futures from these parasitic corporations. Perpetual growth, and continued burning of fossil fuels is not only criminal, it is immoral.
BillT on Sun, 16th Dec 2012 2:07 am
GregT, I think we have passed it and 2040 may be the year we reach 1 billion people again, if not sooner. Exxon is one reason the human species is going to be extinct by 2100. Greed is killing off our race.
When I was a kid in the 40s & 50s, I never thought I would live to see the end of our species, but now I think I may. Profits and greed are destroying the systems that we need to live. Our kids and grand kids will not have a world to live in, and will probably be gone long before they get close to my 68 years.
GregT on Sun, 16th Dec 2012 2:28 am
BillT,
My son is in his third year electrical engineering and he tells me that he and his friends all understand that their future is dismal. Very sad to hear 21 year olds having to think this way.
DC on Sun, 16th Dec 2012 6:49 am
/Q Gains in efficiency through energy-saving practices and technologies – such
as hybrid vehicles and new, high-efficiency natural gas power plants – will temper
demand growth and curb emissions
LoL! Hybrids….Seriously? The measures described, well, minus the hybrids, should have been taken 60 years ago. Not…sometime in distant future. Which is the honest truth since very little of that statement describes life in North America. In any event, demand can go as high as it wants. It could go to 200mbpd, or 500mbpd. What matters is what is actually capable of being produced, not what people want. For example, Im demanding a 250k annual income, however, my boss is currently only willing to provide a tiny fraction of that amount. I do not expect that situation to change no matter how I phrase my demands or how much I wish I were making that amount.
Kenz300 on Sun, 16th Dec 2012 10:27 pm
Exxon is promoting Exxon and is out for maximum corporate profits.
They do not care about their impact on the world or the environment.
The faster we transition to safe clean alternative sources the better.
Climate change is real.