It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
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Jean lmeife on Wed, 23rd Apr 2025 4:29 pm
I like the body language of the big guy with the red shirt on the left of desk. He knows that he is surrounded by losers. The silent guy that looks around himself and analyzed everything.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A1VJttpmJdc
Alain Jean on Wed, 23rd Apr 2025 5:00 pm
Some men can look at a crowd of people, like the red shirt guy, and know who they will kill and keep alive. Some men can do that in a matter of 10 secs.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A1VJttpmJdc
Bertiane Jeanette on Wed, 23rd Apr 2025 5:09 pm
Me personally, just be looking at Legault, Poilievre, Trump, JD Vance, Bessent, I know they are losers and I would kill them right there. Just by looking at them, you can see they are losers not worthy of being kept alive.
For some of us, these decisions are really easy to make.
Naide Jean on Wed, 23rd Apr 2025 5:19 pm
Just by looking at the staff of The five, I can see that I am dealing with losers. I would kill them right away.
By looking at Kimmel, Colbert, Maher, John Steward, Dave Rubbin, John oliver I know I am dealing with losers. I would kill them right away and move on as if nothing happened.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wp4cPdO90Nw
Yellen Jean on Wed, 23rd Apr 2025 8:26 pm
4:33 look at his face. It is energetic disintegration. They are unable to connect to the new energy field currently being deployed.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rnBTAVGD7mk
Only the humans with an hybrid flesh body that have received all the updates needed are going to be able to connect to the new energy field. Everyone else will die. Only the chosen one will live, everyone else will die.
Alain Jean on Wed, 23rd Apr 2025 9:10 pm
Thais people dont lack imagination.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/pzdofaWX1Sk
Ttremel janus on Wed, 23rd Apr 2025 9:23 pm
Thailand the best place to study female natural behavior: selling sex for money.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f8dtD0gDY2U
alain jean on Wed, 23rd Apr 2025 9:32 pm
Pattaya looks like an psychological experiment to study female prostitution. It seems that it was voluntary built this way because some aliens want to collect datas on female prostitutions and behavior.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ae89Xc0iPEI
The same way as Dubai was setup to study visual sensory overload.
alain leduc on Wed, 23rd Apr 2025 9:50 pm
I will assume this video is really what you see in Pattaya. Studying female prostitutions is what Pattaya is all about. It was voluntary created for that purpose. See what I mean
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hi3SSyTQ9G4
Alain Deupis on Wed, 23rd Apr 2025 10:04 pm
I made a comment about this is the past. The west is dead and everyone knows it. Cambodia is setting itself in way that it is attractive for talented Whites people. Whites talented people will leave the West, and the West will be left with only the loser males. The Whites man is such a disappointment to me and as time go by I understand more and more why black men behave the way the do. Whites people are basically losers in my book. Just look at Canada firearms laws as a proof of what I am saying.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UR1G3PM58Mk
mendre ladeuc on Wed, 23rd Apr 2025 10:13 pm
Everyone around the world think that the Americans are losers for associating themself with the Jews. Only the US cannot see that, the rest of the world sees it that it is a loser behavior.
Ulyse Jeane on Wed, 23rd Apr 2025 10:30 pm
Whited talented people will eventually leave the West and move in either South America or South East-Asia. the West is already dead, white people dont have the IQ needed to see it. Whites people are such low IQ pathetic losers.
Yele Jean on Wed, 23rd Apr 2025 11:07 pm
There is no way the West will survive. I simply does not see it in my head. All I see in my mind is the death of the West.
If the demographic collapse is going to be as bad as I think it will be, it will open opportunities for Whites talented men to leave the West.
Talented Whites men will disperse themselves around the world especially South America and South East Asia.
This is the most likely scenario I can see in my mind. Everything else does not compute in my mind. The West will die is the only option that compute in my mind.
Jean lemire on Wed, 23rd Apr 2025 11:51 pm
They are also using Trump tariff and fake immigration deportation numbers to hide an rapid exponential decline of the world population.
For example, instead of saying the US population is decreasing rapidly because of a low birth rate, they will lie like always.
They will say it is because of the accelerated deportation of illegal immigrants that the US population is declining rapidly. They always lie about everything.
Reporter Presses Trump On Drop In Tourism To US: ‘Do You Think Some People Are Scared To Come Here’
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ErFpqO4-XFc
They are trying to say that a drop of tourism is why the US population is decreasing. They will do everything to hide the truth as always.
alain debuc on Thu, 24th Apr 2025 12:51 am
La female human est laide. Comment faire pour augmenter le taux de natality quand la female humane eat laide comme le tabernacle.
Tu rends la pédophilie légale en espérant que cela va faire augmenter le taux de natalité. On sait tous qu’une jeune de 13 est beaucoup plus attirante sexuellement qu’une veille vache de 20 ans.
voir a 2:15
https://fra.xhamster.com/videos/you-want-to-act-like-a-whore-your-step-grandpa-will-fuck-you-like-a-whore-xhwF3JW
C’est finie pour la planête terre.
alain djepuis on Thu, 24th Apr 2025 12:58 am
2:49 pédophilie comme dernière tentative désespéré d’augmenter le taux de natalité.
Si ca ne marche pas, il n’y a rien d’autre qui va marcher.
Il y en a certain d’autres vous qui doivent être en état choc. Vous ne pensiez pas que la situation était si désespéré que ca.
https://fra.xhamster.com/videos/amwf-swimwear-and-ponytail-are-good-on-a-petite-cute-girl-xhRV1p0
Yellen Lpowdl on Fri, 25th Apr 2025 8:42 am
Two things will happen after all the trees are dead. It will crate a floor of dead dry wooden combustible that will catch on fire easily and burn hot, Razilly and on long distance.
killing all the trees on earth will also decrease the quantity of oxygène in the air and kill people, animal faster then someone could ever dream.
https://www.greenmatters.com/big-impact/how-do-trees-make-oxygen
I told you that I killed million of people before without the need of an army. I told you that I made lifeless whole planet and reality before.
Jean Lemire on Fri, 25th Apr 2025 8:51 am
When I am done with earth, everything will be dead: humans, animal, insects, fishes, bird, aquatic life.
Only hybrid flesh beings with an updated body will be able to stay alive on earth.
I told you that I would kill everyone on earth because of Canada restrictives firearms laws.
Heline regina on Fri, 25th Apr 2025 8:57 am
Ta grosse crisse de chienne Britannique a Carney tu peux te l’enfoncer dans le cul ben serré. Je pisse sur ta grosse chienne féminisé puante a Poilievre.
Quand je vais en avoir fini avec le terre, il ne restera plus rien de vivant dessus.
Alain Jean on Fri, 25th Apr 2025 9:09 am
I told you to abolish the Canadian firearms laws 3 year ago. Who is laughing now? Are you still laughing at me fucking low IQ losers
Je te l’avais die de ne pas me venir me chercher mes armes. Je vais tuer tous ce qui est vivant sur terre et qui respire.
Alean gendron on Fri, 25th Apr 2025 9:26 am
I will kill all of you because Canada dared to put any kind of laws on firearms ownership. There should be no laws at all regarding firearms ownership. I will watch the whole population of earth die with great pleasure for daring to insult me with guns ownership laws.
Alain lemire on Fri, 25th Apr 2025 10:04 am
People don’t seem to understand that killing all the trees on earth is a genocidal act against all living that breath on earth.
Do you understand who I really am? A genocidal killer that loves killing people and destroy whole realm.
Notice that nobody is stopping me. The creator of earth ( creator of mathematical calculators: gravity, thermal, electrical )of is not intervening or try to stop me, this means he approves what I am doing.
The managers of earth, the people below the creator of the earth are also doing nothing to stop me. Meaning they approve what I am doing.
The matter of the fact is that everyone outside of earth realm that want the death of the whole earth population.
Heline amiune on Fri, 25th Apr 2025 10:24 am
There is a reason why I don’t care if earth is invaded by immigrants. I don’t care because I am in the process of killing every living thing that is breathing off the face of earth.
While you care about stopping immigrants invasion, I care only about my guns and killing all the population of earth.
This is why I never comment about the immigrants invasion. I don’t care, I want everyone on earth dead because of Canada firearms laws.
Alain marcille on Fri, 25th Apr 2025 10:44 am
You know what is troubling to me in all of this. Nobody is trying to stop from killing the whole population of earth.
Nobody came to talk to me regarding the death of the all trees and my hatred for earth and its population. Nobody came. This is weird and unusual behavior from the people that have created earth. I guess they approve what I am doing. What other explanation is there.
frie markine on Fri, 25th Apr 2025 10:51 am
Fire breaks out at London, Ont. church
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DC3A3L4egLE
Fire at Western University shuts down social sciences building
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_sif7ho35LQ
Interesting location for random fires.
Tremvbale Jean on Fri, 25th Apr 2025 10:52 am
I told you that I would kill everyone planet earth because of Canada firearms laws.
Heline alaine on Fri, 25th Apr 2025 11:01 am
Eventually you will need a hybrid flesh body to stay alive on earth. I explain a little what it is in previous comment. I can already see in my mind a vision where earth is dead with no live of any sort on it. Just a couple of chosen ones roaming the earth in total solitude. Travelling through dimensional tunnels in and out of earth?
Can you see it in your mind? I can imagine it and see in my mind.
alain jean on Fri, 25th Apr 2025 11:38 am
Making fun of Hollywood movies where a skinny 100 lbs man or woman can beat up a 300 lbs man. This is more or less my body shape.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/ypYPyrH1uEc
Aalin jena on Fri, 25th Apr 2025 11:54 am
Osite que c’est drôle
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/WbR7Y06vK3E
Alain laporte on Fri, 25th Apr 2025 12:07 pm
I like how the entertainment industries portrait big man like me as loser with a low IQ and physically out of shape. I like how they portrait the skinny effeminate man with no muscles mass as the standard definition of a what a masculine man is.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/ypYPyrH1uEc
Bertain plastic on Fri, 25th Apr 2025 1:27 pm
I will tell you I find the most bizarre about all of this. It is not the long necks people, or they lie all the time about everything.
What I find funny is that nobody is stopping me from killing the whole earth population by killing all the trees. The creator of the earth (the
one that has created earth calculators: gravity, electrical,..) could stop this at anytime, yet he does not. Everyone outside of earth realm approve what I am doing. This the most important thing people should remember about this whole thing. Everyone with real power to want the whole population of earth dead.
Jeanette Bertaind on Fri, 25th Apr 2025 2:41 pm
Another thing that a lot of us don’t understand is Why Canada is not abolishing the firearms laws to save earth and its populations. The fact that Canada did not abolish its firearms laws is one more reason for us to think that we made the right decisions by deciding to kill everyone on earth.
Janvier Mars on Fri, 25th Apr 2025 2:55 pm
They are coward with a low IQ and heavily mentally retarded. Normally you would have abolished Canadian firearms laws a long time ago to save earth and its populations. They are basically coward. They are unable to admit that they could have a made a mistake. This is killing earth population was a decision that was easy to take for me.
Alain lemire on Fri, 25th Apr 2025 4:00 pm
Sexual reproduction always fail and it will fail on earth too. Created beings are a way better way to build something long lasting and of quality.
Normally you would give me money so I can buy a pickup and go see what is happing in the woods outside the main cities areas. But by looking in my neighborhood at the trees dying, I would say that in 2 to 5 year from now, all the trees on earth are going to be dead.
Carline ùjean on Fri, 25th Apr 2025 4:14 pm
There will be all kind of feedback loops that will happen when the trees start dying by big patches. It will change the oxygen level in the air, it will change the soil heat absorption values, will change the wind and air pressure pattern, it will move fertile lands from one location to another using wind as a transport mechanism.
You want me to kill all the population of earth just because you are too coward to abolish the Canada firearms laws. I will do if it is what you want.
You want me to kill all the population of earth, I will happily do it.
Leila lelu on Fri, 25th Apr 2025 4:33 pm
You want to fight me. You want to go down that road and still think you can win against me. Since you are just a fucking coward unwilling to abolish Canada firearms laws, I will fight you on this. I will show what is real power.
Jean marchna on Fri, 25th Apr 2025 5:07 pm
Trees also act as a small water reservoirs. People that have cut a tree before know what I am talking about . This water will either have to up absorbe in the atmosphere and create more torrential rain or more snow or it will be absorbed by the soil, rivers creating more inondations. most likely it might create a more humide planets. It will unbearable on earth. Fucking coward, you preferer to make everyone life miserable instead of abolishing Canada firearms laws. I will give you what you want.
A lot of feedback loop are going to accelerate as patches of trees die.
Jean Marcotte on Sat, 26th Apr 2025 7:58 pm
Killing them is not good enough. They will come back on earth later on in the futur. There is only one way to deal with this. It is to kill permanently the earth energy field and extract the chosen ones out of earth reality through a dimensional tunnel. Everything else is a waste of time.
They are leaving now, but they will be back as soon as things on earth improve again. They problem is earth existence. Earth realm has to be destroyed permanently.
Nadie marchan on Sat, 26th Apr 2025 8:02 pm
Killing all the trees is not good enough. It is earth realm that must be destroyed permanently.
Earth calculator need to be disabled permanently. They should have not where to go.
All this talk about immigrants invasions is a waste of time. It is earth energetic field that must be shutdown permanently.
Alam jean on Sat, 26th Apr 2025 8:05 pm
All this BS theater with Trump, Carney, Israel war, Ukraine war is a total waste of time. Only losers will invest time in such a foolish thing and think this is a permanent solution.
Destroying earth realm is the only acceptable course of action that will lead to a permanent solution. This is what I said since the beginning. Extract the chosen ones, when it is done, destroy earth energy field.
Ulyse gemal on Sat, 26th Apr 2025 8:10 pm
Only losers think that this is a solution to earth invasion. This kind of BS theater is what losers that have no real power would do.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2R6wETQeE6c
It is amazing how much losers there is inside of earth and outside of earth. I think the beings outside of earth are even bigger losers then the people inside of earth. Your fucking useless BS theater that goes nowhere. I always know you were just fucking losers.
Nadie Jean on Sat, 26th Apr 2025 8:15 pm
A real powerful King would have never done it like that. He would have extracted the chosen ones and destroy earth. I have been saying this since the beginning, you are just fucking losers with you loser BS theater. Killing the pope and make big funeral with the loser Trump is a waste of time. Fuck you are just pathetic losers.
I am really disappointed at this whole operation and the people behind it from my point of view are just pathetic losers and morons.
I am disappointed at how much losers there is in the universal energy field. In and out of earth.
Jeannette Bertaind on Sat, 26th Apr 2025 8:19 pm
If I ever get in charge in the universal energy field, I will kill everyone including the invisible beings running this shit operation.
I will restart everything from scratch.
C’est tout ce que vous avez a offrir, la grosse salope à Trump et la crisse de chienne Britannique sale à Carney. You don’t deserve to live, you deserve to die all of you.
Lele Farnell on Sat, 26th Apr 2025 8:23 pm
I don’t know who I hate the most, the fake beings living on earth, or the invisible beings running this shit operation with their shit theater.
I hate the invisible beings running the shit BS theater operation more then the fake beings of earth.
Stupid worthless low IQ cock suckers.
Lelo Helena on Sat, 26th Apr 2025 8:25 pm
I am going to kill all of you, inside and outside of earth realm. I am going to kill all of you fucking low IQ losers.
We are going to disintegrate the whole universal energy field and restart from scratch with our own created beings.
This is a waste of my fucking time.
Jean lemonde on Sat, 26th Apr 2025 8:33 pm
We are going to neutralize or destroy the whole energy field and restart from scratch. We are going to destroy every realms that is currently located in the universal energy field. That means everyone including the invisible beings that are creating this BS theater.
I have enough of this crap. Everything inside the fucking universal energy field will be destroyed as a punition for a shit and badly run earth operation run by these losers invisible beings.