It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
Lelan garine on Fri, 18th Apr 2025 2:14 pm
I knew I was dealing with losers when I saw you start this kind of BS theater. I knew back then that you are not really powerful. I knew you did not control earth calculators and were not powerful. I knew you were just fucking losers.
Iran seeks support from Russia ahead of next round of nuclear deal talks with US
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lBzRzKZ24FI
When I see continually pushing the Iran Israel war, I knew you were losers with no real powers.
You are just fucking low IQ with no real power. I am going to kill all of you fucking losers pieces of trash.
Graham Bell on Fri, 18th Apr 2025 2:24 pm
When I saw this, I knew you were just pathetic losers with no real power. All you have is your pathetic theater that goes no where. you don’t have access to the most important parts of the reality: database, calculators (gravity, thermal, solid assembling, solid interference) and calculating machine.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c_nXdBhdkrA
I always knew that eventually I would have to kill everyone on earth.
I always knew you were just fucking losers.
Helein welling on Fri, 18th Apr 2025 4:09 pm
I just hit energy walls while walking in my house. I was also rotating on my body axel . I think something bad will happen, like more snow, more floods. It also possible that trees will die faster. Anyway, you will all die. Warrior once, warrior for ever.
I told you that I would kill you all for taking me guns aways from me.
berrtie jaeane on Fri, 18th Apr 2025 4:12 pm
I told you to abolish the Canada firearms laws 3 year ago. Now it is revenge time. It is time for all of you to die.
Tuer estlefun on Fri, 18th Apr 2025 4:44 pm
C’est qui qui va mourir en prochain. Trump, Carney, JD Vance, Legault, Poilievre.
Quel sera le prochain pays a subir des inondations ou des chutes de neige importantes: le québec, Europe, UK, Ontario ou les provinces maritimes.
Je vous l’avait dit ne pas toucher a mes guns. Je vous l’avais dit que je vous tuerai tous.
Betrant Plastic on Fri, 18th Apr 2025 5:00 pm
Je pense que j’ai reçu une mise à jour de language. C’est qui le crisse d’enfant de chienne que va mourir bientôt. C’est qui la grosse de merde sale qui va mourir bientôt.
La crisse de chienne féminisée à Carny qui va mourir bientôt.
Je vous l’avait dit de ne pas venir me chercher mes guns, mes crisse de tabernacle de câlisse.
Maidie Lepen on Fri, 18th Apr 2025 5:04 pm
J’ai jamais pensé que tuer du monde était aussi le fun que ça. Ca me manquait de tuer du monde.
Tuer du juif, c’est quasiment aussi plaisant que d’éjaculer sur la face du pute soumise.
Jardine Laplante on Fri, 18th Apr 2025 5:08 pm
Regarde moi la grosse pute Américain sucer de la graine de Juif. Regarde le gros connard American s’humilier en public. Regarde moi ostie de cave. Je peux te mettre sur ma liste d’execution si tu veux crisse de cave.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wnyqNQmNE4c
Nadien Jean on Fri, 18th Apr 2025 5:11 pm
Je vous l’avais dit mes crisse de merdes sales de ne pas toucher à mes guns. Qu’est-ce que vous pensez d’une grosse tornade au Texas. Ostie de crisse d’Américan sale de câlisse. Ma mettre ton crisse de pays sale en feu.
Jean Marie on Fri, 18th Apr 2025 5:51 pm
Quand tu vas à la guerre il faut toujours amener des jouets sexual avec soi. Ca c’est les jouets sexual que appartiennent a tous les hommes de la tribu. N’importe quel homme dans la tribu pour les fourrer.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_MCJBr0t_qk
Yellen Jean on Fri, 18th Apr 2025 6:10 pm
I work for the greatest president of my life. He signed executive actions on day one. LOL See at 1:40
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B8cbuzg3Lx0
Yellen Jasmine on Fri, 18th Apr 2025 10:23 pm
Je vais mettre en feu votre crisse de pays sale, crisse d’Américans sales sans cervelles.
Je pisse et chie sur les Québécois, les Canadians pis les crisse d’Américans puants sales.
Je te l’avais dit de pas venir me chercher mes guns, ostie de caves sans cervelles.
Jean lemire on Fri, 18th Apr 2025 10:34 pm
Quand je vais avoir tuer toute la population de la terre, les cadavres seront déposés devant mes pieds comme cela avait été prévu depuis le début de la création de la terre.
Je vous l’avais dit de pas toucher a mes guns. Je vous l’avais dit que j’allais tous vous tuer me crisse conards sans cervelles.
Bertran plasite on Fri, 18th Apr 2025 10:46 pm
Regardez moi la grosse pute puante a Trump à 2:57. L’ostie de con il veut pleurer comme une chienne.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QueIfzYY4QU
Crisse de chien sale, m’a venir te tuer toi pis ta crisse de famille sale.
ilian jean on Fri, 18th Apr 2025 11:16 pm
Regardez moi sa crisse de face sale. The glamour veil is being removed. Vas te regarder dans le miroir connard.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ylxcZNrbfJE
Regardez comment Stephanie Ruhle est laide. Je pisserai même pas sur la salope tellement qu’elle es laide.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4T9j3IRTMlg
Lemdire laporete on Fri, 18th Apr 2025 11:34 pm
Ostie de crisse que c’est drôle à 18:37
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vkFvYzn5Z9U
Ulyse valerian on Sat, 19th Apr 2025 12:03 am
33:20 visual sensorial overload. On dirait le décor d’un film d’horeur.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=124VUK2Siq0
Alaind Laplante on Sat, 19th Apr 2025 12:19 am
Dubai look like a psychological expriment to test visual sensoriel overload and its effect on people.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JnKgeHX2EHc
Dubai Test on Sat, 19th Apr 2025 12:49 am
26:35 it looks like something done on purpose to create a sensation of visual sensorial overload.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8RtVIKnjbFY
heline Jen on Sat, 19th Apr 2025 12:56 am
3:34 On dirait une piscine artificielle.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O22y27mVRNE
Alain Legand on Sat, 19th Apr 2025 1:13 am
Dubai look like a psychological expriment to test visual sensoriel overload and its effect on people.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JnKgeHX2EHc
Same a porn videos on this website. Look like a psychological study to investigate human sexual fantaisies.
https://fra.xhamster.com/videos/rocky-emerson-dominated-in-bdsm-10219543
Alain Jean on Sat, 19th Apr 2025 1:19 am
Why would someone create a video like that. To study or change human sexuality.
https://fra.xhamster.com/videos/lilly-ford-vs-the-pope-10598167
Jeane maire on Sat, 19th Apr 2025 1:22 am
WHo create a video like that. To study or change human sexuality. Who place a rope like that around the vagina of a women
https://fra.xhamster.com/videos/warning-devastating-brutality-and-torment-7393700
Alain Pipe on Sat, 19th Apr 2025 1:59 am
Pretty obvious it is fake. I don’t know what to say about this.
https://fra.xhamster.com/videos/eden-sin-blowjob-machine-xhWoyoW
alain Jean on Sat, 19th Apr 2025 2:09 am
She is creating a dominant and aggressive man from a position of submission.
https://fra.xhamster.com/videos/toilet-pee-fun-slppy-teen-blowjob-pt-1-xhOZMf8
Alain jean on Sat, 19th Apr 2025 2:19 am
She is creating a dominant male from a position of submission also. Notice the face slapping.
I made a comment about this in the past about some women who were warrior creator.
https://fra.xhamster.com/videos/super-hardcore-deepthroat-with-slaps-spit-and-punches-xhneilp
Yellew stpierre on Sat, 19th Apr 2025 5:45 am
7:02 sensory sound overload. This song is made to study the effect of sound on people body and mind.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ChOmxTYvnY8
Earth is a psychological study center. They study sex, sound, type of governance, obedience studies (police forces, justice system, gun control) and so on.
Lila lalonde on Sat, 19th Apr 2025 5:56 am
Sexual reproduction always failed on the long run. It will failed on earth also. It is just a matter of time.
Sexual reproduction is a failed concept that has been abandoned a long time ago. I am surprised that it is being attempted here on earth again.
Yellen Jean on Sat, 19th Apr 2025 6:07 am
I am surprised that sexual procreation was attempt on earth with such a ugly female.
The human female is really ugly. Her sexual organs are ugly, too slack and unable to provide enough pleasure to men to keep sexual reproduction alive.
Jean lemire on Sat, 19th Apr 2025 6:28 am
The human female is so ugly that they had to write love and sex song to try to convince men that she is beautiful and sexually attractive. This is how ugly the human female is.
Samantha Fox – Touch Me (I Want Your Body)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W1btg3mpEOc
Billy Joel – Uptown Girl (Official Video)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hCuMWrfXG4E
hekibe laforbe on Sat, 19th Apr 2025 6:36 am
Look at how ugly is the young human female. She is not pretty enough to keep the human race alive using only sexual reproduction.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-4q-5tf0IY
Alan jean on Sat, 19th Apr 2025 9:35 am
As I grow older I hate more and more the White race and I understand more and more why the Negro behave the way he behave. Whites people are basically losers. JD Vance visit in Italy proves toi me that Whites people are losers that love to humiliate themself publicly.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GJ1uUefDusQ
Beatrice Jean on Sat, 19th Apr 2025 9:48 am
Canada restrictive firearms laws is really the proof that Whites people are pathetic low IQ coward and losers.
The negro at least understand how this realm works, unlike the loser Whites people.
Alaib Lepage on Sat, 19th Apr 2025 10:02 am
It is amazing how the human female is ugly. Even the beautiful ones are ugly is you at them closely.
You cannot expect a specie to survive long with such a ugly female, with an ugly vagina. Her vagina is too loose to able to provide satisfactory pleasure.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UCDGQOjdIPo
Jeamid marchand on Sat, 19th Apr 2025 10:56 am
I think everything about earth has been reveal. I don’t have much more to say about it. I think I covered almost everything. It is time to start killing earth population.
Yelline Jean on Mon, 21st Apr 2025 4:37 am
Everything has been revealed. It is now time to kill earth population as I said I would do.
Alps See Record-Breaking Late-Season Snowfall; Arizona Snowbowl Buried; Historic April Snowfall Hits Northern India; Another New Study Confirms The MWP; + Global Sea Ice Uptick
Alaib meric on Mon, 21st Apr 2025 4:47 am
I told you that I would kill everyone living on earth because of Canada restrictive firearms laws. Stupid worthless pieces of shits.
Yellin Jean on Mon, 21st Apr 2025 5:23 am
It is amazing how the human female is ugly. I am not surprised to see the birth plunged lower. She is so ugly. Her vagina is too slack and unable to provide adequate sexual pleasure. On top of that, the human female is heavily mentally retarded.
Who is the creator behind such ugliness?
alain maritime on Mon, 21st Apr 2025 6:37 am
Do you want to know why women wear clothing like these?
To hide their real ugliness. Without clothing and make-up, women are so ugly that they make you throw up when you look at them naked.
Who created such ugliness?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i3JaowFspfM
Jean Lapierre on Mon, 21st Apr 2025 6:49 am
Je vais tous vous tuer, après ca je vais démembrer vous cadavres une par une à la hache on la scie. Ca prendra le temps que ca prendra pour démembrer vos cadavers. Je vais commencer par les cadavres des Québécois, ensuite de Canadiens, des Juifs et des Américains.
Crisse de trou du cul sale a merde. Il n’y a personne que vient me cherche mes armes comme le Canada la fait.
Après ca je vais tuer mon père ou créateur, pis finalement je vais me suicider.
Marcil dulude on Mon, 21st Apr 2025 7:38 am
Le refroidissement planétaire global, va me permettre une conservation de longue durée des cadavres de la population humain. Cela me permettra de prendre mon temps pour démembrer vos cadavre.
La conservation des cadaver par le froid, me permettra d’avoir une experience plaisante lors du démembrement des cadavres, même s’il ne sont pas aussi frais que de nouveaux cadavres juste après la mort.
Ils s’appelent ca, la guérison psychologique par la violence et profanation des cadavres des personnes qui vous ont fait souffrir.
Cela va me permettre de passer le reste de ma vie à démembrer des cadavres humains. Vive le refroidissement planétaire.
Jaimae Prelsye on Mon, 21st Apr 2025 7:42 am
Je vous l’avaids dit de ne pas venir me chercher mes armes avec vois lois stupides sur les armes à feu.
Ostie crisse de Québécois sales de tabernacles sans fierté
Jesuis Laprise on Mon, 21st Apr 2025 7:46 am
Je vous l’ai dit que j’allais tous vous tuer pour m’avoir insulté avec les lois Canadiens sur les armes à feu.
Snowfall leads to freeway closures, slide-offs in northern Arizona
https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/meteorology/snowfall-leads-to-freeway-closures-slide-offs-in-northern-arizona/ar-AA1Dcciw
Carney Sale on Mon, 21st Apr 2025 8:10 am
Quand je pense que vous avez le culot de ramener la chienne Britannique a Carney au Canada pour essayer de contrôler le Canada à partir de la Grande-Bretane utilisant la pute à sale a Carney. Fucking insulting. On va s’occuper de la chienne à Carney quand le temps va venir
Lelame meache on Mon, 21st Apr 2025 8:51 am
Si vous saviez combien de personnes j’ai tuées dans mes vies passées et quel genre de sauvage sanguinaire j’ai été dans le passé, vous vous suicideriez tous immédiatement.
M’a tous vous tuer just pour une question de guns.
Alain conard on Tue, 22nd Apr 2025 2:32 am
Je vous l’avais dit que je tuerai tout le monde sur la terre à cause des lois Canadiennes sur les armes à feu. Je vous l’avais dit de ne par vener me chercher mes armes avec vos lois stupides.
Je vais tous vous tuer et je vais démembrer vos cadavres un par un.
Iceland’s Potato Harvest Hit By Cold, Wet; Pacific Cooling; Massive Coronal Hole; Canadian Politics Ditches Climate Hype In Search For Votes; + Big Oil Is No Longer Western
Je vous l’avais dit mes crisses de conard sans cervelles.
Alain Depuis on Tue, 22nd Apr 2025 2:46 am
Look at her face. It is the face of a man on a woman body. See at 6:48. Kleck was right.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y37TsM0UO20
There is no such think as a woman or a man. There is only a man body with either a penis or vagina. There is only one type of body.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hW2yQSW9ptQ
Heline Charles on Tue, 22nd Apr 2025 2:53 am
This is why sexual reproduction is not working. The female is not sexually attractive enough because it is the body of man with a vagina instead of a penis.
Sexual reproduction always failed, and it will also fail here on earth.
Alan Marchan on Tue, 22nd Apr 2025 3:30 am
There a genetic abomination. They are genetic garbage and genetically impure. GOD likes purity and perfection. They will be killed.
Make sense now why birth rates are so low. Human female is not attractive and full of genetic defects.
The glamour veil is being removed. You will see what genetic garbage really looks like now.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/qyf6oR_lrXs
alain jean on Tue, 22nd Apr 2025 3:43 am
The human race is basically genetic garbage of low quality. The human female is such a genetic mess that she is unable to produce quality offspring. She create only low quality offspring, or if you will, she only birth heavily mentally retarded offspring because she is a genetic garbage can. Make sense to kill everyone living on earth.