It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
Alain Jean on Wed, 16th Apr 2025 3:58 pm
This is Kendall Jenner. There is a whole sexual realm that they are hiding from us.
https://fra.xhamster.com/videos/rocky-emerson-dominated-in-bdsm-10219543
Heline Jean on Wed, 16th Apr 2025 4:03 pm
This is kendall Jenner again. I dont know where they find all this imagination
https://fra.xhamster.com/videos/hard-domination-with-bondage-and-flogging-for-rocky-emerson-in-the-california-desert-xhXrjmb
alaine jeami on Wed, 16th Apr 2025 4:20 pm
0:43 look at her legs. You can see these are fakes legs. I told you, they have a lot of imagination when it comes to sexual scenario.
I cannot remember if I did shit like that or not. I don’t enough imagination to come with scenario like that. This is some kind of male training she is doing from a position of submission. I dont remember what she is training him for. Is she trying to raise his aggressiveness level with this.
https://fra.xhamster.com/videos/submissive-trained-with-ass-eating-and-doggystyle-rough-sex-xh4Eqqg
Tremeble janette on Wed, 16th Apr 2025 4:38 pm
Porn videos in general contain more info than youtube. They show much more weird body shape and weird tongue.
Ulyse jean on Wed, 16th Apr 2025 4:43 pm
Some people will look at this below and assume that the man is the dominant one. It is not always the case. Some women will dominate and train a man from a position of submission. That seem to be the case here. She is training him to be a aggressive man.
https://fra.xhamster.com/videos/submissive-trained-with-ass-eating-and-doggystyle-rough-sex-xh4Eqqg
Heline Marine on Wed, 16th Apr 2025 6:54 pm
Look at her neck at 0:13. They are even not hiding anymore that it is fake.
https://fra.xhamster.com/videos/rocky-emerson-table-hogtied-12576353
alain jeme on Wed, 16th Apr 2025 7:10 pm
I know it is fake porn, But you sit there and sait to himself, ok I will make a porn move with a girl that has ring attached to her lips.
Image a meeting there, it is good idea. what about we put hooker boots on it. Who is writing these scenario.
https://fra.xhamster.com/videos/stretching-genital-enhancement-part-1-10778602
ctv newsn on Wed, 16th Apr 2025 7:23 pm
It is fucking endless.
https://fra.xhamster.com/videos/cute-elf-gets-a-lot-of-piss-milk-and-cum-in-her-mouth-special-halloween-deepthroat-xhy35PR
april laving on Wed, 16th Apr 2025 7:27 pm
2:09 split tongue. Porn is way ahead.
https://fra.xhamster.com/videos/slut-in-red-loves-to-make-men-happy-deepthroat-blowjob-with-cum-in-my-mouth-xhc6Z0m
Tech Support Dubai on Wed, 16th Apr 2025 8:10 pm
When it comes to laptop repair Dubai services, customers can expect a comprehensive range of solutions tailored to meet their specific needs. Skilled technicians are equipped to handle issues ranging from hardware malfunctions and software problems to screen replacements and battery issues. Quick turnaround times and high-quality repairs ensure that your device will be back in working order promptly.
Additionally, reputable service centers offer guarantees on their work, providing peace of mind that your laptop is in capable hands. Trustworthy support is essential for maintaining the performance and longevity of your device in this fast-paced city.
alain jean on Thu, 17th Apr 2025 3:37 am
At 4:49 that are all offering themself sexually to the male teacher. Ostie que c’est drôle. They are all signaling that they are ready for sexual intercourse.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uuP9ffpDIbw
aalin jean on Thu, 17th Apr 2025 3:41 am
10:00 these are the girl I am talking. They were able to get some them pregnant even if they could not menstruation. Some of them are adult hiding in a kid body.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uuP9ffpDIbw
aoah ejlie on Thu, 17th Apr 2025 3:56 am
5:22 she is telling you that she wants kids. And then you find out that she is doing porn movies where she is submissive enjoying heavy sexual humiliation and degradation.
Go figure
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vAAnCUhxLaA
Alain Jean on Thu, 17th Apr 2025 5:51 am
11:22 the female vampire warrior look.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t2CSTPbh1dY
————————————-
0:21 in the underworld female warrior trope.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tUcrbUCWKQc
You guys don’t fuck around.
trembla marcu on Thu, 17th Apr 2025 6:01 am
If we are going to live in a fantasy world, where Kendal Jenner as a double life as a top model and porn start. If we are going to bring the sexual and underworld into planet earth realm, I would like to make some demands.
I like killing Jewish people, can this be arranged for me. Surely a new crusade against the Jews can be arranged. In general I like killing people, can this be arranged for me.
Jeam marie on Thu, 17th Apr 2025 6:21 am
I can see from here, all theses psychologists and psychiatrists at the Tavistock Institute trying to create a psychological profile of me. I can see the discussion here.
How can he be so intelligent with strong analytical skills and at that same time be a man that loves to degrade women during sex and love killing people, especially the Jewish people of earth that we all know have suffered so much already.
I can see them talking in their conference rooms and saying, it was not supposed to happen this way and having an high IQ man that love to humiliating women during sex and killing people. What did we do wrong to deserver such a man.
How could it be, it was not supposed to work that. I can see all these fucking losers talking amont themself.
Is he serious when he is saying that he will kill everyone on earth because of Canada restrictive firearms laws. Yeah maybe I am fucking serious about it.
IRELAND’S PEAKS DUSTED; RARE APRIL SNOW DAMAGES ORCHARDS IN IRAN; ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE NORTHEAST; + HISTORIC LATE-SEASON SNOWSTORMS BURY THE ALPS
I can see that from me. How can such a man with such potential refuse to help the human race of earth. How come he is letting the human race die on its own.
Bertand Jean on Thu, 17th Apr 2025 6:31 am
If you guys want to play this fucking game of fake theater, with you fake politician fake animals maybe we should bring the sexual realm, the underworld realm and the horror realm into planet earth realm. If you like to play these games, maybe we can help you. You like my idea.
Jean Lapierre on Thu, 17th Apr 2025 7:14 am
She is making fun of everything is this video. It is really subtle. I love sitting alone next to my fire place. It is actually well done.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vAAnCUhxLaA
Jean marchand on Thu, 17th Apr 2025 7:23 am
I have no respect for men that are holding their hand wife like this. Some of us see this as a sign of weakness. We see this as a weak pathetic man that cannot be trusted. We see these men as inferior men. There used to be an hierarchy among men that has disappear as men become more feminized. There is no way earth civilization will survived.
A women is supposed to walk behind you, never by your side or in front of you.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q3H-gJM6KUM
Karine Jean on Thu, 17th Apr 2025 7:37 am
In the past, a man would haver never accepted to meet with a women like that.
WATCH LIVE: Trump welcomes Italian PM to White House for tariff negotiations
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BRx6lXzkKHQ
There is no fucking earth civilisation will survive.
According to the old hierarchy, you would have seen as a weak pathetic man and would have been kick out of the council. You would have been seen as a low quality man not deserving of occupying powerful position.
Ulysee Jean on Thu, 17th Apr 2025 7:44 am
Tolerating and accepting Jews inside your land was also an offence that would get you kick out of the council. If you has Jews on your land, you were supposed to kill them.
Regig Jeane on Thu, 17th Apr 2025 7:51 am
The only accepted clothing in public was the miliary type of clothing: tactical vest and tactical pants. Each time you were going out, you were supposed to carry a weapons. You were supposed to carry a weapon with you all time wherever you were going.
The business suit is seen as a joke by some of us that only losers would wear.
Hekine Marcile on Thu, 17th Apr 2025 8:01 am
A man beating a woman in public was considered a private business matter and people would stay away as it was a widely accepted rule. Killing women was considered acceptable even when done in public.
Nakdie Jean on Thu, 17th Apr 2025 8:20 am
Only losers think that the business suit is a cool way to dress.
Jean Marint on Thu, 17th Apr 2025 10:33 am
i have not heart from the outside world of any plan to rescue earth and its population. They only plan I am aware of is to protect the chosen (I am not talking about the Jews) ones.
Earth has been classified as a failed project and will be destroyed.
maine Lepen on Thu, 17th Apr 2025 10:50 am
It is always the same fucking people the recycle all over the place.
Kendall Jenner as a top model or some porn start
Dave Rubin and Jimmy kimmel are the same person.
Always the same losers they recycle all over the place
Jamie laplrate on Thu, 17th Apr 2025 10:53 am
Mark Carney and Jordan Peterson are the same person.
Berline James on Thu, 17th Apr 2025 11:08 am
You came up with the shit sport. I did a little bit of this in school. You shoes fill up with sand, you butt is dirty and wet. Who came up with such a dumb sport.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tjjOtQxNTQ4
Are they laughing at us or are they serious about it.
Bertian jaine on Thu, 17th Apr 2025 11:16 am
I bought a back pack for oversize person. The back pack fit fine. You can look at some of picture and videos and you can see that they are not adjusting the back pack properly. This fucking piece of shit low quality AI.
This is what I mean 0:08 and the shoulder straps. Look at how the shoulder straps pass below her arms. It does not happen with the one I have at home because the strap are really long.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CmwUDPMoPgk
On the video, they dont know how properly ajust a back pack. You see the same shit on aliexpress.
Jean merville on Thu, 17th Apr 2025 1:42 pm
Softcore porn. I am surprised that main street media is not talking about. YouTube is full of softcore porn and nobody is talking about it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9I6N5S1OT84
Selene Dracule on Thu, 17th Apr 2025 2:01 pm
Softcore porn and pedophilia softcore porn from YouTube:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TurJk8LYhls
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KxllkdTTs1M
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_6ZzK-XaC4w
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6J9tKX361AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pQSYJ4_Fp0M
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ne4zu5voovw
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L-ojOq9q0eE
Nobody is saying anything about this. It is totally normal.
Allo Jean on Thu, 17th Apr 2025 2:16 pm
Softcore porn wrestling:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JVoYt-mwjtk
This is the lesbian hardcore version with Kendall Jenner
https://fra.xhamster.com/videos/rocky-emerson-vs-sofie-marie-rough-lesbian-wrestling-fight-13383960
alain Depuis on Thu, 17th Apr 2025 2:57 pm
I was able to look at the skin of my forearms at the grocery store. They have really strong lighting. Big patches of my skin are pink almost red. The old skin is kind of flaking away. All the defect on my skin are disappearing. All the liver spot are slowly disappearing and the bumps on are also disappearing. No wonder why my skin is always itching.
As I said, I suspect you cannot do dimensional travelling if flesh body as defects.
I am pretty sure of it, eventually I will leave this shit earth after I kill everyone living on earth because of Canada firearms laws.
Martine Labreche on Thu, 17th Apr 2025 3:01 pm
I will fuck over the whole planet earth just because of Canada firearms laws. I will have the cadavers of earth population lay in front of me for daring to insult me like that.
Ulyse maine on Thu, 17th Apr 2025 4:20 pm
This is the kind shit the Jews came up. Only mentally sick people could come up with something called Tikkoun Olam. Notice again the absence of mathematical concepts or equations to explain how this world works
We had enough of the heavily mentally retard Jews and we deicided to sart a crusade to kill all of them. There is something wrong with the whole race.
There is only mentally sick people on this fucking earth. This is why we are pulling the plug on earth.
https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tikkoun_Olam
9anime to on Thu, 17th Apr 2025 4:47 pm
Just finished watching and I’m honestly impressed. The story keeps getting better, and the character development this episode was on point. 9anime never disappoints
Yellen Powell on Thu, 17th Apr 2025 5:26 pm
No way these kind of complex music arrangements have been created on earth. Earth population is too mediocre to create something like that. It comes from another dimension.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ChOmxTYvnY8
Earth is a mediocre realm. I can wait to leave this place.
Alain Delond on Thu, 17th Apr 2025 6:17 pm
7:26 they kill the song, and let the sound coming out of the drum set fully express itself.
This kind of complexity you don’t find that on earth. Earth population is too mediocre for that.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ChOmxTYvnY8
Ian Karin on Thu, 17th Apr 2025 6:50 pm
The song is divide in 3 parts
First part is the introduction. 0:00 to 1:45
Second part start with base guitar at 1:46
It written like a piece of theater with parts and pauses. You don’t find this level of sophistication on earth the population is too mediocre for that.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ChOmxTYvnY8
alaine marcile on Thu, 17th Apr 2025 7:42 pm
Here is the third version of Kendal Jenner. Look at her face. I am getting pretty good at this.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wLM5d48EP-8
Yelloe power on Thu, 17th Apr 2025 8:38 pm
4:00 there is this drum beat sound very distinct, this is where is the tempo of the song goes from slow to high. The tempo of the song will be slowly raised from slow to high until it reach a climax. This song is too sophisticated to have been created on earth. It came from somewhere else where intelligence and talent live.
There is only mediocrity on earth.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wLM5d48EP-8
laporte mrie on Thu, 17th Apr 2025 9:01 pm
As I can see, the law of conservation of mass still apply to earth. As I can see, the earth calculator of conservation of mass is still running. Meaning earth will run out of oil eventually.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/Tk–jQmbQWQ
Only the chosen will live, everyone else will die.
Jaime Presley on Fri, 18th Apr 2025 6:40 am
I told you that I would kill all the population of earth because of Canada firearms laws.
HEAVY SPRING SNOW HITS NORTHERN SPAIN; ALPS SLAMMED BY MORE LATE-SEASON SNOW; 100% LOSSES IN SOUTHERN UKRAINE; + NEW STUDY FINDS ANTARCTICA GLACIER GROWTH
I saw in some small forest around my neighborhood, patche where all the trees felt on the ground. I saw conifers trees where all branches were gone and only a few top branches were left. All the trees in the forest are dying and falling down. It is something to see.
I told you to not take away my weapons from me. I told you that I consider that as a personal insult deserving of death.
Heline marie on Fri, 18th Apr 2025 7:07 am
Trump is such a fucking loser. I can guarantee you that the military does not respect him.
‘I Was Invited By The King’: Trump Sounds Excited Tone For Visit To UK To Meet King Charles III
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bgvcY6_6XrQ
Ilinea jasmine on Fri, 18th Apr 2025 7:17 am
People prefer to die instead of keeping earth civilisation alive. I told you that you lost the West around year 2000. I told that it will not be rebuild.
This is what this video is all about, fuck earth and it is slavery civilisation. Fuck earth and its mediocre population.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v2nHtgP5VTA
Jasmine Jean on Fri, 18th Apr 2025 10:04 am
Deep inside the Americans are pathetic low IQ losers without any courage.
This is America for you.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49n3n_wdnNk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R075FgsavHc
I prefer the Russians, Thais and Africans over the Whites race. Whites people, never miss an occasion to humiliate themself.
Alain Jean on Fri, 18th Apr 2025 10:48 am
I told you that I would kill everyone on earth because of Canada firearms laws. I told you that I dont like be insulted.
Severe weather in Italy leaves at least three dead, heavy snow reported in the Alps
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VR3MAV_j7b0
Ulyse Jaime on Fri, 18th Apr 2025 11:06 am
As I said the White race love humiliating itself. You don’t see that with Russians, Blacks and Thais. Whites are fucking bottom feeder losers.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k4oV1G6GOiA
Karine Lamlkarche on Fri, 18th Apr 2025 12:41 pm
Nobody is leaving earth. There is nothing outside of earth except total emptiness. You cannot collapse earth energy field using your BS theater with Carney, Trump and other losers. They only way to leave earth is with an hybrid flesh body that can travel through emptiness.
I told you to not fuck with my weapons.
You are prisoners here on earth until I killed all the inhabitants of earth.
There is no where to run you are here to die.
Hekine Jean on Fri, 18th Apr 2025 1:55 pm
I really don’t give a shit. I don’t want to know who build these old buildings. I dont care and I don’t want to see these other worlds.
I only care about killing everything living on earth realm for a question of firearms laws.
This is all I Fucking care. I dont care if there are other type of beings or other worlds out there.
I care about killing people because of Canada firearms laws. This is all I care about that.
I really don’t give a fucking shit, I want your cadavers lay in front of me for insulting me.