It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
Alain Jean on Sat, 12th Apr 2025 4:22 pm
The US has a big problem. They are passing more restrictives guns and there is no protests. This means that your nations is dead inside and right wing people won’t be there te rebuild once it has collapsed. The US will never be rebuild after the collapse. Canada and US are dead nations inside.
Basically, want is happening is this: you can take our gun aways but we won’t be there to rebuild the West if you need us. The face that there is no protest is the street is alarming.
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/colorado-governor-signs-new-gun-restrictions-law-including-bump-stock-ban
I told you that you lost the West and it is not coming back,
Yellen Jean on Sat, 12th Apr 2025 4:58 pm
US and Canada will probably be the first nations to die. Meaning the people will leave and nobody will live on these lands. The electrical grip will shutdown permanently and will never by restarted again.
Yellen jean on Sat, 12th Apr 2025 6:33 pm
0:09 she behaves like a managed and trained whore. She gets out of the car walks to where the master is and she wait for instructions. She stand by him and look straight in front of her as a way to distance herself from the discussion he is having. It is a way for her to say this discussion does not concern me, and I will wait for instructions. This is how I remember a trained and managed fuck toy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=id_Mxwp5FMM
Helinne vaginal on Sat, 12th Apr 2025 7:06 pm
I had all kinds of rules for them. You never walk in front of me, you never look at me in the eyes, you never speak unless I ask you a question.
She had her own apartment inside the castle. Each time she leave her apartment to enter into the castle, she must dress in a way that signal that is available for sex and ready to be used as a sex toy immediately. If I wanted anal play, I would tell her in advance so she would stop eating 16 hours before.
These are the best bitches to fuck. This is probably not accurate but it is how I remember it.
Heline Jean on Sat, 12th Apr 2025 10:40 pm
I would not use any proper name to address her but degrading words, such as stupid whore, useless fuck toy, dumbass cunt.
For example, I would say, come here dumbass whore and present your ass to me. I have a question for you stupid bitch. I would also use a verbal degradation language each I spoke to her. She had to be able to deal with that.
This is how I like my whores.
Jean laporinte on Sat, 12th Apr 2025 10:57 pm
It was put in the contract, that I could choke her at any time of my liking, face slap her in a moderate fashion, push her on the ground, grip her by the hair as a mean of control and subjugation, have her vagina torture during sexual session. It is probably not accurate, but this is how I remember it.
Garahoe Bell on Sat, 12th Apr 2025 11:03 pm
I like face slapping women. I could face slap the dumb bitch a couple time a day, just because I could. She has to be able to deal with without crying and showing fear.
Heline marciline on Sat, 12th Apr 2025 11:15 pm
Britney Spears – Work B**ch (Live from Apple Music Festival, London, 2016)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GmEyM5Ocjec
Jean lapierre on Sat, 12th Apr 2025 11:30 pm
Wow you guy don’t fuck around. The reptilians look, one day after I wrote a comment about Pattaya sanctuary. WOW you really want to know the truth more than me.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/PCfxvHQUhfU
Yellow Jeant on Sun, 13th Apr 2025 1:42 am
My personally, my sex toys had to consent to vaginal torture and permeant damage to her sexual organs in the contract of ownership.
https://fra.xhamster.com/videos/a-7-pound-weight-on-my-pussy-while-being-tied-up-in-the-air-xhcpRFJ
https://fra.xhamster.com/videos/slave-sex-087-xhv3SH3
I would not redo it again but it was nice to have it done once.
Jean Lemfire on Sun, 13th Apr 2025 1:52 am
You would always find a stupid whore willing to sign these ownership contract. I never understood why. It is something to try at least once in a lifetime.
The invention of the concept of love and marriage might have been a big mistake.
Bertand Janet on Sun, 13th Apr 2025 2:05 am
2:16 she is pretending that she has her hand and feet attached to a wall. She is pretending that she is in a prison and a sex slave. There is some beings out there that are fascinated with sex. I could never figure out why.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e20xc8HcDEk
Jeanine Levant on Sun, 13th Apr 2025 5:37 am
The return of the old kings would mean the end of what I called love or the concept of love, the end of marriage, the end of divorce courts.
Relationship between a man and a woman would go from marriage to ownership contract. Marriage would be abolished and replace with ownership contract. All the control that women have over governmental institution would disappear and be replace by the law of jungle for women where only the strongest survive.
Maine LePen on Sun, 13th Apr 2025 5:55 am
2:32 these are animals faces not human faces. I would say cat faces or werewolves faces.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=woaX1ImmpDE
Alain Jenee on Sun, 13th Apr 2025 6:01 am
6:58 baby with genetic defects. Lack facial symmetry with one eye higher then the other one.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=woaX1ImmpDE
Heline Marque on Sun, 13th Apr 2025 6:43 am
As always they are incapable of predicting the future. It is not Trump you have to be afraid of, it is the guy that will come after Trump. Someone will come after Trump, nobody knows who it will be, this is the person you have to be afraid. The next one that might come after trump might kill all Trump family. I told you they are just fucking loser. Associating yourself with Trump could be the equivalent of signing you death warrant as you dont know if the next might like or hate trump.
They never go away, exactly like Mayer. Eventually you have to kill them.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dqUB_CdZ1zg
They are fucking losers that always need audience to exist.
Bertaina Jane on Sun, 13th Apr 2025 6:58 am
Earth is an imaginary fantasy realm. You never know what kind of power the next guy coming will have. Will he have a fake army of obedient soldiers. Will he be immortal. Will he demand the death of everyone on earth just because he can and he is a genocidal murderer. They never go away, they always double down on their stupidity. This is why the earth energy field is being changed in order to permanent kill these fake beings. Only the hybrids with a flesh body updated will be able to stay alive in the new modified energy field everyone else will die including Mayer. Same as the Jews, they never know when to go away and shut up.
Mayer is the typical loser we like to make fun of. Same as Kimmel, Colbert, Meyer.
Jamie Perslye on Sun, 13th Apr 2025 7:10 am
all of this Ukraine war, Israel war, Trump, Trump tariffs are distractions for losers. The real action is in the earth energy field that is being reconfigured in such a way that only real human with a hybrid body will be able to live safely in this new modified energy field. Everybody else will die.
Don’t worry Mayer will still continue to be delusional and think that he is important. Same as Poilievre, Trump and all the other losers.
mafine lepen on Sun, 13th Apr 2025 7:40 am
One month before 9/11, the company I used to work for installed TV screens next to the elevators put the TV on CNN channel. I had a TV at home but I was not watching it. They knew I that I had completely detached myself from what was happening on earth and I would not care if a building had collapsed in the US or anywhere around the world. So they installed TV screens were I was working at the time to make sure that I see it and hear about it.
The biggest things taking place on earth is not on TV, on the internet or any type of media. It is happing inside the energy fiels, where few people have the ability to feel using their body.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rz0EwLAzm2E
Aling Jean on Sun, 13th Apr 2025 8:20 am
20:37 on the left on top of the column. It is either a open serpent mouth and a female vagina where the head of the soldier is the clitoris.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yH9tzKZpL0A
They have a fascination with sex and female vagina. I dont know why.
karine Jean on Sun, 13th Apr 2025 8:22 am
female vagina
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Category:Close-up_photographs_of_human_vaginas?uselang=cs#/media/File:2pvagina.jpg
Jean lemire on Sun, 13th Apr 2025 9:29 am
It is probably not accurate. It probably did not happen. Usually when an ownership contract ends, you pay to the woman a certain amount of money so she can restart a new life somewhere else.
Some women would come and instead of a money would demand that you make them pregnant just before the contract expired and then they would leave. I am probably just making shit up.
Celine neaud on Sun, 13th Apr 2025 10:35 am
He looks like someone that does not want the job.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kex21wIqkx4
Forbes ews on Sun, 13th Apr 2025 10:44 am
23:45 The blue building. Look like a maternity ward, one chamber per window. One women and baby per chamber. Look like a building dedicated to mass cloning.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HAlsYo_9E38
What if earth was in the past a giant cloning center.
aline Jeanj on Sun, 13th Apr 2025 11:34 am
I think earth is a cloning center or it was a cloning center in the past. By looking at the Russian buildings and how they age and breakdown, I would say that at most earth is 300 year old. Russians don’t seem to do a lot of maintenance on some buildings, this is useful as it makes it easier to determine the age of earth. By looking at how Russian building are aging, I would say that earth is about 300 years old at the max.
Alain Hellean on Sun, 13th Apr 2025 11:47 am
“Double Shot (Of My Baby’s Love)” is a song first recorded by Dick Holler & the Holidays, written by Don Smith and Cyril Vetter. [2] It was later recorded by the Swingin’ Medallions who released it as their second single in 1966.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lk4Rj9WXjko
Another love song trying to encourage people to have sex. It would appear that even in 1960 they knew about a low birth rate.
I am born in 1967 when the demographic collapsed started for real in Canada. We entered an accelerated time vortex in 1980 with the creation of the first computer the ZX80.
Jean lemire on Sun, 13th Apr 2025 7:23 pm
Here are the new females procreators for the new earth. It is one male procreators and multiples different females. It is a lot of fucking for one male procreator.
But first we need to kill all the actual earth population before repopulating the earth. We are currently working at killing all the population of earth. Stay tune as you will all die soon.
I am kidding, I am completely stone. Nobody will ever dare to kill all the population of earth just because of Canada firearms laws. That would be crazy. Plus, think of the poor Jews how they suffered in the past. Try to kill all of them again, you must be crazy, but I approve.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nazS2deqjDA
We all need someone like Bill Mayer to make the earth a better to live for everyone. No, I am serious, Bill Mayer has great potential.
Jaime Presley on Sun, 13th Apr 2025 8:01 pm
What is the first step needed when you need to repopulate a new earth. It is to kill everyone actually living on earth, yes including the Jews of course.
To repopulate, you have to kill first.
Jean lamarre on Sun, 13th Apr 2025 11:10 pm
One improvement among many others of the new humans race is that they won’t need to eat or drink. The female asshole will then become a new sexual organ. The new female sexual organ will always be clean and smell good.
The new whore will have two holes to penetrate for the pleasure men. One tight hole and one slack hole. Finally women will have a tight hole instead of just one ugly slack hole.
Joe Labroche on Sun, 13th Apr 2025 11:29 pm
Some of you most be in some kind of mental choc when you look at the situation. Some of you must be wondering how come I was chosen. How come a man like me that is really intelligent can also be a savage genocidal manic? How come a man that hates women and sees them as only good for sex was chosen? How come a man that wants to kill everyone on earth because of Canada firearms laws was chosen? How come a man that hates the jews so much was chosen?
So of you must be really upset about the current situation? Some of you must be really upset as you just realize that you are a nobody and you will die on earth like a loser.
Janette Bertrand on Mon, 14th Apr 2025 12:26 am
I can imagine from here, all the questions that some of you are asking yourself.
Why do he hates women vagina? Well because it is too slack and unable to provide adequate sexual satisfaction to men
Poor Europeans, British and Jewish elites. They must be confuse by the current situation as they all thought that they were the chosen people that we supposed to rules over the world inside NWO created by them. These poor people, they must be so disappoint that a gun lover, a savage and murderer man was the chosen to repopulate the earth.
Yelleo Jean on Mon, 14th Apr 2025 12:43 am
I will tell you why sexual reproduction is a failure why there is a low birth rate. It is because the female vagina is ugly and too slack. It is unable to provide adequate sexual pleasure when penetrated.
Dont blame me if you are losers and you designed a failed female that is not sexually attractive.
Heline Jean on Mon, 14th Apr 2025 1:22 am
33:05 thank you master for using me as your urinal.
This is how I remember women from my past life. Forever losers with no honor, no intelligence, no dignity, no self-respect, no morality.
https://fra.xhamster.com/videos/asian-with-ddds-jasmine-wilde-loves-to-get-fucked-nasty-xha2Ir3
This is the kind of shit I used to do with women I would entered into a sexual ownership agreement.
Jean lapeine on Mon, 14th Apr 2025 1:26 am
Yes all women are the same. There is no exception to this rule. Wait until the system start to collapse the government stop functioning. You will see what women really are about and it is not pretty.
Jean Laporte on Mon, 14th Apr 2025 4:48 am
One of the problem with earth is the human female.
Each time the female has a children she transmit to her offspring what she is, What is she, mentally retarded, a forever losers with no honor, no intelligence, no dignity, no self-respect, no morality.
This is why you have a population of heavily mentally retarded people, with no morality, no honor, no dignity, no self respect because that is what the human female is.
Everything start with the piece of shit human female. Earth cannot be fixed. It will be destroyed.
You have an earth population made of mentally retarded people because the human female is also mentally retarded. How do you fix something like that. It cannot be fixed.
Jean Monette on Mon, 14th Apr 2025 4:59 am
In Montreal my thermometer tell me that it is -4.5 Celsius at 6:00 AM. Global warming my ass.
The weather chanel tell me that is 4 Celsius. They even lie about the temperature on their weather web site. THey lie about everything.
https://www.meteomedia.com/fr/ville/ca/quebec/montreal/actuelle
Bertrand Janette on Mon, 14th Apr 2025 5:06 am
https://electroverse.info/
Cold Front Batters Northern China; Seoul Sees First Mid-April Snow Since 1907; April Snow Sweeps Ukraine; Cyprus White; + FMI Revision
In Montreal my thermometer tell me that it is -4.5 Celsius at 6:00 AM. Global warming my ass.
Only the chosen ones ( I am not talking about the Jews here) will live, everyone else will die.
Maine Lepen on Mon, 14th Apr 2025 5:15 am
I told you that I would kill everyone on earth because of Canada restrictive firearms laws. I never told you how I would do, using cold, earth quakes, killing all the trees,
I will kill everyone on earth for this insult toward me.
Jaime Presley on Mon, 14th Apr 2025 5:28 am
Wow the goal of Trump traffis what also to stop ailine travel to save oil. I did not see this one coming. I thought it was mainly to hide the collapose of the supply chain. As usual, they never tell the truth about anything.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/european-travel-us-drops-17-amid-trump-backlash-worries-about-treatment-foreigners
Look what the WEF just put on its YouTube channel.
Can aviation ever be sustainable? Here are some paths to net zero
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dgalaHMtIsQ
Trump tariffs exist to hide all the problems that we have. Don’t worry they will tell you the truth eventually, LOL
Jean merci on Mon, 14th Apr 2025 5:56 am
I can see it from here. They are going to say something like this. Trump tariffs are bad but there is one positive thing coming out of it. Trump tariffs has slow down the airline travel therefore it help save the planet by reducing CO2 production. I can see it from here as I had written the software: the fake CGI news anchor smiling and being all happy while is telling this good news.
Elaine James on Mon, 14th Apr 2025 6:31 am
My eyes sight has improved again. If it continues this way, I wont need glasses. I still have shitty legs. I supposed this will be fixed eventually, fuck cock sucker. I am completed doped again. Maybe you need a prefect body to be able to do dimensional travel. otherwise the travel algorithm won’t know how to deal with body defects. I am less hungry also. Sometime I am really warm. It feels like I have a really powerful internal heat source inside my body. Since outside of earth there is no heat source, the flesh hybrid body needs its own internal heat source to travel thought a dimensional tunnel where there is no heat sources. That is one of the problem with a flesh body, it requires an external source of heat to stay alive such as the sun.
Jean lemire on Mon, 14th Apr 2025 7:16 am
Can they take the whole plant and make it travel through a dimensional tunnel? I don’t think so. The sun won’t be strong enough to stay alive. The heat will be sucked out of the sun and the sun will die. There is no heat source outside of earth realm, it is really cold outside of earth realm with no light.
Jean Marie on Mon, 14th Apr 2025 8:08 am
Can someone confirm to me that it is actually like that in the forest at 7:23.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I2Rvg-8KB0I
The trees look similar to what I see around my neighborhood.
I told you to send me money so I can buy truck and go see for myself what is happening in the forest. Fucking losers.
alaine demoins on Mon, 14th Apr 2025 8:30 am
There is no oxygen, no air, no air pressure, no heat and no gravity in a dimensional chanel also. IF you want push an human into a dimensional tunnel, he must be transformed into an hybrid with an internal heat source, a internal oxygen generator, a internal gravity source to maintain his biological form and so on.
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Jean maie on Mon, 14th Apr 2025 10:12 am
I will assume this news is real and not fake.
Dodge Ram dashboard screen thefts
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l7ysIAnBFRI
This is what you are supposed to see when the supply chain start collapsing or you are into an hyperinflation situation. People steal parts because you cannot get them anywhere else. This kind of things are early warning signs of pending collapse of the supply chain or the accelerate of hyperinflation. Only the chosen one will live, everyone else will die.
This is the real reason of Trump tariffs. To hide all the problems that we have. It is probably time for the chosen ones to leave earth using a dimensional tunnel.