It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
Allan Jean on Thu, 10th Apr 2025 5:26 am
They wrote love songs trying to boost the birth and they put and effeminate gay singer as fake masculine men.
0:58 look the male singer is wearing high heels.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zM_T4wYZg0k
They are just fucking low IQ losers.
Graham Bell on Thu, 10th Apr 2025 7:05 am
I need a back pack because I took a lot of weight and my shoulder got broader. So I need a plus size back pack. So I am shopping around and found this one.
https://www.mec.ca/en/product/6028-015/gregory-zulu-28-lt-plus-size-daypack-unisex?colour=Forage+Green
https://www.mec.ca/en/product/6028-015/gregory-zulu-28-lt-plus-size-daypack-unisex?colour=Forage+Green
If you click on pick up in-store you can see the availability. Almost all the stores are out of stock. You can see the collapse of the economy and supply chain in real time. Same as with rockauto.com. As time go by, the manufacturing of products that have a low sale volume will shutdown, and we will be left for a limited selection of products that have high sale volume. If you want something you should buy it now.
For example the one below does not have the standard size available only the long size is available. This is the supply chain shutting down.
https://www.mec.ca/en/product/6020-296/mec-vista-45l-backpack-womens?colour=Blue+Suede
It is coming, it is just a matter of time.
Heline Jean on Thu, 10th Apr 2025 7:11 am
I told you that the goal of the tariffs was to hide all the problems that are currently developing: shortage of mechanics, collapse of the international supply chain, shortage of police officiers, shortage of replacement parts for car, truck and heavy machineries.
I fucking told you that only the chosen ones will live, everyone else will die.
Helene Jean on Thu, 10th Apr 2025 7:23 am
Some of backpacks are made in Vietnam or Philippines. Go look at his tariffs chart to see where both are located. Are the located close to the top of chart.
Made in Vietnam see below.
https://www.mec.ca/en/product/6024-292/osprey-hikelite-18-daypack-unisex?colour=Black
https://www.mec.ca/en/product/6027-991/osprey-tempest-velocity-20-daypack-womens?colour=Pashmina-Melon
https://www.mec.ca/en/product/6017-599/patagonia-refugio-26l-daypack-unisex?colour=Black
Nean Helena on Thu, 10th Apr 2025 7:27 am
What I wrote below you will never heart that in the media. They are going to lie to you as per usual. They always lie about everything.
I told you that the goal of the tariffs was to hide all the problems that are currently developing: shortage of mechanics, collapse of the international supply chain, shortage of police officiers, shortage of replacement parts for car, truck and heavy machineries.
Heline Heline on Thu, 10th Apr 2025 7:36 am
Trump is a showman put there to entertain the masses while everything goes to shit. He is there to protect the elites against retribution for a enrage populace. He is not there to govern, he is there to entertain us while earth civilisation is dying.
As I said, they never tell the truth, they always manipulate us one way or another to hide the truth.
trump the great entertainer.
Jaime Presley on Thu, 10th Apr 2025 7:43 am
I can see it 10 miles from here. You go to the store to buy a back pack. Someone answer you that is out stock because it is make in Vietnam and Trump has put tariffs on Vietnam.
https://www.mec.ca/en/product/6024-292/osprey-hikelite-18-daypack-unisex?colour=Black
Who how it works. Always lying about everything.
Naide Jean on Thu, 10th Apr 2025 8:04 am
What video on Kimmel YouTube channel has the most views. The video talking about Trump tariffs. Kimmel is there to remind you that it is because of Trump tariffs that you cannot buy a backpack from Vietnam. He is there working with Trump to hide the truth. You see how they work. You see how sophisticated they are when comes to the time to lie to you.
https://www.youtube.com/@JimmyKimmelLive/videos
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VrE23a3SbQs
Betraine Jeana on Thu, 10th Apr 2025 8:08 am
Me at least I have the balls to tell all of you that I hate all of you and I am working toward killing all of you.
Lalo Jean on Thu, 10th Apr 2025 8:12 am
Same thing with Set Meyer.
https://www.youtube.com/@LateNightSeth/videos
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LzQDmJtxyPg
They are all working together to fuck us over.
GHrahoe Jean on Thu, 10th Apr 2025 8:33 am
These fucking cock suckers lied to me through my whole life. You really think they will stop lying now. Do you really think that I am stupid enough to work with people that have lied to me my whole life.
I want your fucking cadavers put in from of my feet for what you did to me. I will come after my father or creator and I will kill him if I can. A warrior once, a warrior for ever.
Matine Jean on Thu, 10th Apr 2025 9:04 am
IF you fucking cock suckers think you will get away with it you are mistaken. I am talking to my creator. I only know physical pain since my body started to change. If you think you will make me suffer on daily basis for no good reason you are sorry mistaken. I am going toi come for my creator and kill this piece of shit if I can. If is simply not normal to have to suffer so much pain just to be able to move into another vehicle. You fucking piece of shit I will come for you, do you hear father. I will come for fucking piece of shit.
Valerian Ulyse on Thu, 10th Apr 2025 9:09 am
I will collect my pay first, that is the death of everyone on earth, then I will come for you father.
Bertna Jean on Thu, 10th Apr 2025 9:21 am
You fucking worthless piece of shit. You had no emergency plan to evacuate me from earth in case of emergency. You had no fucking plan in place to send me money. You had no fucking secure communication channel. You had no fucking plan in case I was to demand a hand gun for personal protection. You are just a fucking loser that is unable to plan properly a long term operation. Come to my fucking house fucking loser.
You fuck piece of trash.
Jeean marchal on Thu, 10th Apr 2025 10:59 am
It is not going to be me. But some people will come to start a purge. The politicians will be killed first this include the US and Canada. Federal politicians will be killed first and the provincial or state politicians will be killed after.
Some people will come. I am not going to be part of it, but some people are coming.
Rreal Jean on Thu, 10th Apr 2025 3:23 pm
Of course there will not be a deal with China. The goal of the tariffs is to hide all the problems we have. There will be no deal with any nations, as the goal of the tariffs is to hide the collapse of the supply chain caused by natural rescues depletion.
All the nations of the world are working together to on this fake tariffs war. They are working together to protect their life against retaliation from the people: politicians, medias, bankers, big corporations CEO.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O7aj05pQmGc
Jean lemire on Fri, 11th Apr 2025 5:32 am
I told you that I would kill all the population of earth because of the restrictives Canada firearms laws. Never take aways the weapons of a warrior, you never know what you will unleash upon yourself. A warrior once, a warrior forever.
Spring Snow Hits Ukraine; Tenerife Dusted; Iceland Shivers; U.S. Resorts Blanketed From Tahoe to New England; Mexico Chills; Early Winter For New Zealand; + Poles Freeze
https://electroverse.info/
Powell Jean on Fri, 11th Apr 2025 5:44 am
You had 3 fucking years to abolish the Canadian firearms laws. You decided to do nothing. It is your fault if you are all about to die here on earth like the losers you all are.
betrane jean on Fri, 11th Apr 2025 6:04 am
I told you that they have been feminizing men using feminisms and gun laws. I told you that earth civilisation is dead.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yoO7ENCoVys
denis rivet on Fri, 11th Apr 2025 6:30 am
The Many Gangs of Montreal, Quebec – Part 1 of 3
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LKxt7RPjFx4
Jean Lemire on Fri, 11th Apr 2025 6:53 am
I told you that the Whites Quebecer are savages deep inside.
Heline Jasmine on Fri, 11th Apr 2025 7:39 am
Look at me, I want to use the weather or cold temperature to kill all the population of earth just because of restrictive firearms laws.
I told you, deep inside we are savages and murderers.
Jean Latruite on Fri, 11th Apr 2025 9:01 am
Look at the roof 0:11 It looks like an hybrid half insect and half human. One side looks like the tail of a bee and top an human torso.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=em_UtBfnJH8
Yelloe Jean on Fri, 11th Apr 2025 9:07 am
6:52 under the word masterpiece, look likes sperm. Look like women bathing in male sperm.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IeDVLdZc0Kc
Jean Alain on Fri, 11th Apr 2025 9:18 am
7:52 the balcony is the hidden face of an insect. You can see the 2 nostril and the 2 eyes.
9:50 GOD of the wind. The procreator with its children.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=05lMYx3Xbg0
Graphic Jean on Fri, 11th Apr 2025 9:31 am
6:08 right in the middle of the screen. It is a hidden dragon face.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_3Wjbr2ShgM
See what I mean.
https://www.pixelstalk.net/dragon-wallpapers-hd/
Bertran Jeean on Fri, 11th Apr 2025 9:57 am
5:13 penis inside a female vagina.
6:07 some kind of vagina. You see the clitoris on top and the big lips on each side.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=im60dlYVHOQ
This sanctuary is about sex and procreation.
Bertie quran on Fri, 11th Apr 2025 10:18 am
Look at the roof 0:11 It looks like an hybrid half insect and half human. One side looks like the tail of a bee and top an human torso.
I could also be a female leaving her cloning coffin. This could also represent human cloning.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=em_UtBfnJH8
Betrane Jean on Fri, 11th Apr 2025 1:53 pm
Some of you should start to be afraid that we might actually kill everyone on earth using global cooling. Should some of you be worried about that. Should you abolish Canadians firearms laws as a preventive measure. No you won’t do it, you are just fucking losers.
Spring Snow Hits Ukraine; Tenerife Dusted; Iceland Shivers; U.S. Resorts Blanketed From Tahoe to New England; Mexico Chills; Early Winter For New Zealand; + Poles Freeze
https://electroverse.info/
Nadine Marchand on Fri, 11th Apr 2025 2:16 pm
Don’t worry, I would never dare to kill all the population of earth because of Canada restrictives firearms laws.
Dont worry I am not a mass killer,
Alain Depuis on Fri, 11th Apr 2025 5:18 pm
No you won’t be able to fix. You have a problem of demographic decline and a problems of IQ. This affect all the type of color skin.
You don’t have the IQ needed to fix. This is why they keep making loves song. They are trying to boost the birth rate and the IQ of earth population. It is really not working. The human female is too ugly, her vagina is too ugly and her asshole is too close to her vagina.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fLX2cVwuJoU
NO there is no fucking hope. THe human flesh body is a total failure. I have talked about that in the past. ONly the chosen one will live.
Jaime Preslye on Fri, 11th Apr 2025 6:41 pm
Even the human teenagers female is extremely ugly. Sexual reproduction work best when sexual organs are beautiful. It is not the case of the female vagina that is extremely ugly. The butt crack is also a big turn off.
I cannot believe someone thought that human sexual reproduction would work on the long term. I told you, they are fucking losers.
allon jead on Fri, 11th Apr 2025 7:04 pm
Even the human teenagers female is extremely ugly. Sexual reproduction work best when sexual organs are beautiful. It is not the case of the female vagina that is extremely ugly. The butt crack is also a big turn off.
I cannot believe someone thought that human sexual reproduction would work on the long term. I told you, they are fucking losers.
you cannot keep human race alive with such ugly female.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P6vUq6YLNWk
Regig Levaume on Fri, 11th Apr 2025 8:18 pm
Her list of accomplish is amazing. You can tell that she is saying that with a sarcastic tone. There Were a couple of good ones like this one today but I did notp ut the link.
They are making fun of WEF and UN young leader program.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N1hP7gD6Dqk
Jean Labrine on Sat, 12th Apr 2025 2:27 am
22:46 in a porn movie. The woman in White would be seen as a sexual dominatrix and the man as sex slave that love to be humiliated. She has the demeanor of a sexual dominatrix that love sodomizing men using a big strap on. The men would be called a feminized sissy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jp_TNO33H08
Jean Mafine on Sat, 12th Apr 2025 2:55 am
37:51 another sexual dominatrix with her effeminate sissy boy. She might be a transvestite with a penis. Look at how the men dresses.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jp_TNO33H08
Yellen lemsie on Sat, 12th Apr 2025 3:15 am
50:02 a dominante man will have never hold the hands of woman like. A man that sees women as something that need to be managed and train will have never allowed that. A women should always walking behind her master. This is something only effeminate sissy man would do at 50:02
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jp_TNO33H08
Jesus Chriat on Sat, 12th Apr 2025 4:13 am
50:00 in other past life, I would have killed this women right because she dared to suggest to we hold each other hand as lover. I would have killed this fucking bitch right there.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jp_TNO33H08
I think the concept of love was something that was invented by the Europeans. It is always th fucking European that fuck up everything.
By the end of the 11th, and throughout the 12th centuries, when the poets of southern France invented ‘l’amour courtois’ (courtly love), love emerged as an essential theme in the relationships between men and women.
https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/the-heart-it-all/201104/the-day-love-was-invented?msockid=0a7256b9d9fb69d93afb4372d880686e
I fucking told you, it is always the Europeans that try to control and dominate the world
Yelln Jean on Sat, 12th Apr 2025 4:42 am
another fucking video with a effeminate man. another video telling you where to go if you want to see what a women vagina looks like: playboy magazines. Another video worshipping mental retarded woman and her ugly vagina.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hCuMWrfXG4E
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BqDjMZKf-wg
These 2 songs were released at the beginning of 1983.
ZX80 computer, the first made available to the public was released in 1980
I told you, it felt like we entered an accelerated time vortex around 1980.
Jean Marine on Sat, 12th Apr 2025 5:37 am
16:55 another sexual dominatrix. This video is full of women who behave and has the demeanor of a sexual dominatrix. Typical effeminate sissy boy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jp_TNO33H08
Glitch Matrix on Sat, 12th Apr 2025 5:45 am
20:46 look at the face of the negro. He just realized that she is glitch in the matrix.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jp_TNO33H08
Alan Jean on Sat, 12th Apr 2025 6:45 am
2:05 human face surrounded by serpents. It represents the human race that is a enslave by of the serpent race.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r1vb8VaROFI
Jean Marchand on Sat, 12th Apr 2025 7:00 am
10:06 look at the bottom windows. Almost at the save level as the sidewalk.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HAlsYo_9E38
Ttreame peledau on Sat, 12th Apr 2025 7:05 am
25:18 the window goes below the sidewalk. Must have been a one hell of a flood.
25:40 same think again.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HAlsYo_9E38
Nathalie Trudelle on Sat, 12th Apr 2025 7:18 am
24:25 the small window. Look likes someone build a small dam around the window to stop the water from the sidewalk to flow through the window and flood the basement.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oYrEblUXNxg
Yelleo Jean on Sat, 12th Apr 2025 8:18 am
Men At Work – Down Under
Living in a land down under
Where women glow and men plunder
Can’t you hear, can’t you hear the thunder? Ooh, yeah
You better run, you better take cover
(We are) living in a land down under (ooh, yeah)
Where women glow and men plunder
Can’t you, can’t you hear the thunder? (Can’t you, can’t you hear the thunder?)
You better run, you better take cover
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XfR9iY5y94s
Jean Marie on Sat, 12th Apr 2025 11:33 am
16:55 another sexual dominatrix. These are specialized female only used when they need to manipulate a powerful man using sex. They seem to have a special software where these female can operate as dominant, submissive or a switch. Their goal is to control a man using sex. Their goal is to make sure that each orgasm is better then the previous one. They know how to dress to look sexually appealing. Their goal is to make that she is seen as the only woman capable of proving you with good orgasms.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jp_TNO33H08
Jean lamaire on Sat, 12th Apr 2025 12:05 pm
0:51 look at her walking behind him like a robot. She is a managed and trained whore.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=id_Mxwp5FMM
Denin Blue on Sat, 12th Apr 2025 12:14 pm
No trust or associate yourself with a man that believe that love is real and who believe that women are capable of loving somebody else then themself.
Bertrand Jacques on Sat, 12th Apr 2025 12:18 pm
Never trust or associate yourself with a man that believe that love is real and who believe that women are capable of loving somebody else then themself.