It is fairly common nowadays to see relatively near-term estimates for a point at which demand for petroleum-based fuels begins to decline. The term often used to describe this “tipping point” is Peak Oil Demand. When I say “near term,” I mean right around the corner if you look at an estimate published last year by the International Energy Agency-IEA, an intergovernmental agency headquartered in Paris, France, and originally established after the Oil Embargo of 1973 to help cushion against future oil shocks. This agency has expanded its mission to a fairly broad remit over the years since, and it is not the purpose of this article to detail all its endeavors. One role we will highlight is that of the one it plays in gauging and advising member governments on energy security and energy sources for the coming years.
In that capacity, the IEA in a report entitled, Oil 2023, and published last year settled on 2028 as the year past which the use of petroleum fuels will begin to decline.
“Growth in the world’s demand for oil is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years, with the high prices and security of supply concerns highlighted by the global energy crisis hastening the shift towards cleaner energy technologies, according to a new IEA report released today.”
This view is largely shared, particularly with respect to liquid motor fuels, by other agencies and organizations that produce long range estimates. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA, Rystad, and Det Norske Veritas- DNV, all show this category tailing off rapidly in the 2030s as electric vehicles assume larger shares of passenger vehicles. We will call this the “Bear Case” for liquid fuels.
As you might expect the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries-OPEC, disagrees with this view. In fact in their recent report on oil demand outlook, published in Nov 2023, they see oil demand of all kinds, except for electricity generation, rising from ~105 mm BOPD in 2025, to 116 mm BOPD in 2045. This forecast show use of oil as a road fuel continuing to be the largest source of demand increase for this period.
The report notes that “the divergence between the IEA and OPEC outlooks is largely due to assumptions regarding the speed at which internal combustion engine vehicles will be replaced by electric vehicles.”
What is interesting is that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to see a production trend being established that would support the bear case. In the U.S., we are pumping at a rate of over 13.2 mm BOPD and still importing ~6.7 mm BOPD to feed our nearly 22 mm BOPD daily habit. The U.S. Energy Information Agency-EIA forecasts in their monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook-STEO that by the end of 2025, global production and demand fall into a fairly tight balance at 105 mm BOPD. That certainly isn’t a long-term trend, but as is often said, the long-term trend is made up of a bunch of short-term ones. For my part, I would say that the trend line in the STEO graph below matches the OPEC estimate more closely than the other three.
Both of these notions cannot be true. Which is the correct assumption about future oil demand? Or are they both wrong? What are two factors these two disparate views of oil demand are not taking into account?
The first answer lies in how you interpret the growth of the middle class in China, India, and Africa in terms of energy demand and the final form it will take. The second is the advent of energy demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI), an entirely new source of demand that is just now starting to appear in energy demand forecasts. I discussed one possible outcome of this demand for U.S. natural gas in an article in March 2024.
To be clear, I am not arguing that AI demand will directly impact crude oil demand as a primary source. Most analysts are factoring renewables and natural gas to meet AI demand. What will impact demand for WTI and other baskets of crude is the relationship to light oil production in the U.S. and the associated gas that’s produced along with it. We will leave that discussion for a future article and refocus on our basic topic. What could oil demand actually be when accounting for growth in currently underserved but upwardly aspiring lower classes?
Then there is the Bull Case for oil. Arjun Murti, a well-known energy commentator and partner at energy analyst firm Veriten, as well as a former Goldman Sachs energy analyst, discussed future energy demand in a recent podcast on his Super-Spiked blog. In the episode titled, “Everyone is Rich,” Arjun posits what the impact on world energy demand would be if everyone was as energy-rich as the “Lucky,” 1.2 billion people that live in the Western World. More specifically, Arjun asks what it would mean for the other 7 billion people in China, India, Asia, and Africa to have the lifestyle that Americans, Canadians, Europeans, and a few other countries enjoy. The answer he comes up with on an absolute basis, 250 mm BOPD, using a reference point of 10 bbls a year!
Where are we now? The U.S consumes ~22 bbls of oil annually per capita while China consumes 3.7 bbls per capita. Indians use just 1.3 bbls per annum. That’s a pretty wide gap, and as Arjun notes, “economic growth and energy growth are one and the same. You do not get economic growth without adequate energy.”
One of the arguments put forward by the Peak Oil crowd is that efficiency growth Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and energy substitution will bend the curve on oil demand, as noted in the 2030’s, and spell the twilight of fossil fuels. Arjun points out that there is simply no evidence this is happening using data compiled by Goldman Sachs through 2019. Efficiency gains never lower the amount of energy needed to produce an additional dollar of GDP, above 2.7% GDP growth. A point rarely hit in modern times. To close that gap and attain growth you need more energy inputs. Oil.
Looking at Arjun’s graph below, which uses China as an example, we can see with their present demand of 3.7 bbls per capita which equates to about 15 mm BOPD. With 10 bbl per annum added on for growth in the middle class, you get to 35 mm BOPD to meet Chinese energy demand. Even if China attains 100% Electric Vehicle-EV penetration, not something Arjun (or I) believe is possible, you still have 27 mm BOPD of oil demand. According to SP Global China produces about 4.1 mm BOPD, leaving a gap of about 11 mm BOPD they must import to meet present-day demand.
A point that leads me to what Arjun noted as the ultimate demand limiter and why, although countries that will surely desire to increase their oil usage may not be able to do so. Geopolitical limits to imports. Quoting Arjun, “There is no precedent for countries importing 20-30 mm BOPD” to meet their energy needs. The U.S., before the advent of shale production was importing over 10 mm BOPD as recently as 2005. That’s what we know is possible.
It should be noted that India is in a similar fix and for it to meet Arjun’s 10 bbl per capita standard for being rich, they must import 35-45 mm BOPD. We just don’t know if this can be done from both a logistical and sheer capacity of supply basis. As the EIA graph above highlights global oil production has increased only about 3 mm BOPD since 2019. In order for the world’s poor to become richer, a great deal more oil will have to come to market.
Your takeaway
The message of the growth of the middle class globally often gets lost in the constant blare of climate change and energy transition noise. The fact remains that the world we live in today and the one likely to exist at mid-century, runs on oil.
The notion that the world can quickly and painlessly transition to other forms of energy has developed some, not holes, but gaping craters in recent times. Offshore wind farms are being canceled as costs mount. Car manufacturers are delaying implementation of EV rollouts due to lack of interest from consumers. Communities impacted by siting of solar farms are pushing back on land use as they propose to gobble up large tracts for this purpose.
Roger Pielke, another well-known energy commentator and author, in a post in his Substack, The Honest Broker, cites a White Paper by Vaclav Smil that discusses our energy transition progress to this point-
“All we have managed to do halfway through the intended grand global energy transition is a small relative decline in the share of fossil fuel in the world’s primary energy consumption—from nearly 86 percent in 1997 to about 82 percent in 2022. But this marginal relative retreat has been accompanied by a massive absolute increase in fossil fuel combustion: in 2022 the world consumed nearly 55 percent more energy locked in fossil carbon than it did in 1997.”
Balanced against this lack of progress in substituting oil for other forms of energy is the fact that the world’s energy supply is in a tight balance with demand at present. If the poor of the world make even modest progress toward Arjun’s 10 bbl per annum prognostication in the coming years, the Bull Case for oil will certainly asset itself.
Karine welington on Sat, 26th Apr 2025 8:35 pm
La crisse de grosse salope a Trump. La crisse de petite merde a Poilievre que je ne suis pas capable de sentir. Mes crisses de câlisse de tabernacle, je vais vous arranger ben solide.
Bertune jeremai on Sat, 26th Apr 2025 8:51 pm
M’a vous arranger ça ben solide mes crisse de tabernacle. Ostie crisse d’enfants de chiennes de câlisse. We are going to kill everyone living inside the universal energetic field, including the invisible beings creating this fake BS theater. Everything will go down the garbage can.
These comments are not from me, they are coming form the owner of universal energy field. Watch us kill everything and everyone inside our energy field.
Karine ledne on Sat, 26th Apr 2025 8:54 pm
You were supposed to extract the chosen ones and destroy earth realm. You were not supposed to play this kind of long and boring theater. You were supposes to protect the chosen ones and extract them.
Watch me going full retard.
Kareinde elaine on Sat, 26th Apr 2025 9:02 pm
You were supposed to deliver to me the chosen ones in a good psychological state. I never told you to break down psychologically , mentally and emotionally. What the fuck are you good for with you BS theater. You are just damaging my chosen ones psychologically and make a bad situation even worse. I am going to kill you also for damaging my chosen ones.
alaine lemire on Sat, 26th Apr 2025 10:58 pm
Vous allez tout me détruire mes futures créateurs mes crisse de tabernacle avec votre théâtre de merde. M’a tous vous tuer mes câlisse pour m’avoir faite chier solide. Mes ostie crisse de merde sales. Ma tout crisse aux poubelles incluant vous, mes ostie de merde.
Tu proteges les élues et tu les sort d’icittes.
Mes crisse de tabernacles.
Jean marie on Sat, 26th Apr 2025 11:09 pm
COVID is the best you had. This is the best your pathetic imagination could come up with. You deserve to die to have come up with such a stupid idea. I am going to clean up the fucking place including you.
Crisse de merdes sales de câlisses.
Jean martine on Sun, 27th Apr 2025 12:07 am
you see this below.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2R6wETQeE6c
This has been created by the same people that have created COVID vaccination. I want you dead for creating such a insult that proves that you have no imagination and no real power.
I will kill everyone including the creators of the video above and restart for scratch or never create anything again. I will kill everything that is alive insight universal energy field.
Uleune wene on Sun, 27th Apr 2025 12:12 am
What is inside universal energy field: earth realm, sexual realm, earth calculators, earth calculation machine, earth biological database, earth database for solid object, invisible beings that have created COVID, flesh being inside earth, invisible beings outside earth.
I will kill everything and everyone inside the universal energy field.
Osite crisse de mangeux de merde sale.
Alaind martine on Sun, 27th Apr 2025 12:52 am
Some of you also making the assumption that destroying earth realm means that you will be liberated from your flesh body. Where is your soul will go? It has to go somewhere, it cannot just roam inside the universal energy field.
Collapsing earth realm with you BS theater will basically kill everyone on earth. Killing universal energy field will kill every being that does not have a flesh body. At the end the universal energy field will be killed, it is the only to be sure.
you are just fucking loser if you think that making cheap theater will destroy earth realm or liberate at you from you flesh body. As I said, you are just pathetic worthless losers to me.
Wedlin elain on Sun, 27th Apr 2025 12:55 am
You can make all your BS theater involving that fat pig of Trump, you will never be able to disable gravity or electrical calculator with your useless YouTube videos. You fuck and we have you by the balls, all of you including the people that have created the COVID shit.
Alain Jamel on Sun, 27th Apr 2025 1:02 am
I will kill everything that lives on earth and everything that lives in the universal energy field. Everything.
Trreaml abdil on Sun, 27th Apr 2025 1:34 am
Je vais tous vous enculer bien solide, ca comprend ceux qui sont en arrière du COVID.
Mes crisses de câlisse de tabernacle d’enfants de chiennes.
Karine Jeamache on Sun, 27th Apr 2025 1:54 am
We made it very at the council of creators that a reality based on sexual reproduction was outlaw. Yet again, a fucking loser thinks he knows what is good and bad. There is always a fucking loser to defy the supreme authority and think he can get away with it. Not this time.
There is ample documentation why it is a failed concept and why it has been outlaw. Yet again a fucking loser thinks he knows best.
Ilaine Jasmine on Sun, 27th Apr 2025 2:06 am
We are going to make you regret the creation of a reality based on sexual reproduction. Once we are done with earth, no one will ever dare to create again a reality based on sexual reproduction.
karine jamie on Sun, 27th Apr 2025 2:12 am
We are going to make you regret the creation of a reality based on sexual reproduction. Once we are done with earth, no one will ever dare to create again a reality based on sexual reproduction.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EHpdaiy-Yfk
Alain Jean on Sun, 27th Apr 2025 2:19 am
I also thought that creating a reality based on a matrix of solid only modifiable by heat was outlaw also.
We are going to make you regret what you did.
Ilaine denis on Sun, 27th Apr 2025 2:21 am
From revelation 18:
“When the kings of the earth who committed adultery with her and shared her luxury see the smoke of her burning, they will weep and mourn over her. 10 Terrified at her torment, they will stand far off and cry:
“‘Woe! Woe to you, great city,
you mighty city of Babylon!
In one hour your doom has come!’
11 “The merchants of the earth will weep and mourn over her because no one buys their cargoes anymore— 12 cargoes of gold, silver, precious stones and pearls; fine linen, purple, silk and scarlet cloth; every sort of citron wood, and articles of every kind made of ivory, costly wood, bronze, iron and marble; 13 cargoes of cinnamon and spice, of incense, myrrh and frankincense, of wine and olive oil, of fine flour and wheat; cattle and sheep; horses and carriages; and human beings sold as slaves.
I also thought that creating a reality based on a matrix of solid only modifiable by heat was outlaw also.
We are going to make you regret what you did.
We thought that was a well learned lesson from the past.
Loie loyes on Sun, 27th Apr 2025 2:23 am
Fucking cock suckers.
Kaien laporte on Sun, 27th Apr 2025 2:33 am
I also thought that we made it clear that flesh creation and flesh worshipping was outlaw.
When we are done with earth, nobody will ever dare to create another reality based on flesh and sex.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NGa6BPj3Mcw
Kasien relean on Sun, 27th Apr 2025 2:53 am
Listen to Pam Bondi. Listen to that fucking useless whore trying to sound intelligent. This what you get with sexual reproduction and a low crappy quality flesh body.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/UWCwbXfkeJY
Serely adbul on Sun, 27th Apr 2025 2:55 am
Pam Bondi has the same face as Anya Taylor-Joy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uoU22qpdHTE
Pam Bondi
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/UWCwbXfkeJY
Karine Taylor on Sun, 27th Apr 2025 2:57 am
Anya
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MSX4LZarRUs
Pam Bondi
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/UWCwbXfkeJY
Same person playing 2 different roles.
Grahie feran on Sun, 27th Apr 2025 3:04 am
I am going to make you regret all of this.
lolo trek on Sun, 27th Apr 2025 3:09 am
Megyh Kelly is AOC
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/_pbPw56vtBg
AOC
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sbxyTD0dzg
I could go on and on.
Je vais vous enculer ben solide mes crisse de tabernacle.
Lelai Jamel on Sun, 27th Apr 2025 3:17 am
This one is the same person as Leavitt
Compare this
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=guAGVnjviPg
Leavitt same nose
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/imyFR83qu58
Kaein latope on Sun, 27th Apr 2025 3:20 am
I recevez a lot of update lately: french language update, better facial recognition update, eyes sight update, earing update, knowledge update.
Je vais vous enculer tous ben solide, mes crisse de tabernacles.
Latipita Jere on Sun, 27th Apr 2025 3:23 am
Jordan peterson, mark carney and John steward are the same person. Peterson plays a lot of different characters.
Alaine macrine on Sun, 27th Apr 2025 3:56 am
Jimmy Kimmel and Dave Rubin are the same person. I think I saw Kimmel play another character but I don’t remember his name.
Christian Dube and Mike Huckabee are the same person I think.
They are all over the place. Some even do porn movies
Ulysee Jeamne on Sun, 27th Apr 2025 4:11 am
Kaitlan Collins 3:32 face profile and McEnany are the same person
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f6KKpmEK_bE
MCEnany
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f9yiltKvznY
They are all over the place if you have a good enough memory and good facial recognition comparative memory.
Ulyse traudel on Sun, 27th Apr 2025 4:22 am
I stand by what I said previously. The whole universal energy field will be killed. Read my previous comments. We are killing everything in and out of earth including people that have run the COVID scam.
Yelen ulie on Sun, 27th Apr 2025 4:36 am
0:10 to 034 pretty obvious this is fake CGI.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MpCM-1iyE6I
nadue ramdir on Sun, 27th Apr 2025 4:38 am
I will also repeat that. I will kill everyone on earth just because of Canada firearms laws. Watch me going, useless losers.
Ulysee farnel on Sun, 27th Apr 2025 8:54 am
Trish Reagan is the same person as Caroline Leavitt
Trish
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cqiwkNm1dFw
Leavitt
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zK5EoGZ-EKw
They are fucking everywhere. Every big person media person play a double characters. I could go on and on and on.
Jamal Grehea on Sun, 27th Apr 2025 9:00 am
Lara trump is McEnany some long nose but straight instead of turning toward the right.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=py53muSR5WY
McEnany
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sxNsX8rWvN8
The fucking is endless.
Allen Jean on Sun, 27th Apr 2025 9:07 am
Greg GutFeld and Bill Mayer are the same person. Same type of boring jokes, both are short, both are losers looking for attention.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zoEea1KmFjk
Laport maia on Sun, 27th Apr 2025 9:25 am
I told you that I would some of my men to deal with some of you.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1FMDkmQh9JY
Speaking with reporters in Burnaby, B.C., NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh comments on an incident in which police say a man drove into a crowd of people at the Lapu Lapu Day street festival in Vancouver. Police say several people were killed and multiple people were injured in the incident at the neighbourhood party. Singh himself attended the Lapu Lapu Day festival earlier in the evening, minutes prior to the incident.
olivia Newton on Sun, 27th Apr 2025 9:26 am
I told you that I would send some of my men to deal with some of you.
Karine lafarge on Sun, 27th Apr 2025 9:32 am
Je vais tous vous enculer, vous enculer ben solide.
Lailu Rickewd on Sun, 27th Apr 2025 9:46 am
Marie-Claude Barrette et Nathalie Simard sont la même personne.
Marie-Claude
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gfK45LoNGFk
Natalie Simard à 20:24
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bwsSFXhOtiE
They are everywhere.
Jeante Row on Sun, 27th Apr 2025 9:57 am
Mike Row working for the elites by trying to push young men into dead ends careers with low pay and bad working conditions: such as car mechanics, diesel mechanics, roofing.
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/they-lied-whole-generation-kids
Mike Row working with the elites to keep slavery alive. Notice they never interview a real car or diesel mechanics. They always interview Mike Row.
They refuse to make their working conditions and pay better. They are always sending Mike Roe to covert for them and manipulate young people.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tsSMKRuJec8
Mike Row keeping slavery alive and well.
Jamil Abdul on Sun, 27th Apr 2025 10:10 am
They build up Mike Row as some kind of specialist that pretend to understand what trade people go through during a normal working day.
They build up his fake persona from scratch,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tsSMKRuJec8
and are using him when they need someone to say something positive about trade jobs and earth slavery. It is so fucking obvious when you look at the past history of Mike Row in the media. They never interview real trade people in main street media, it is always Mike Row that speak of their behalf.
Karine Jean on Sun, 27th Apr 2025 10:16 am
I told you there is a shortage of car, diesel,aircraft and heavy machineries mechanics. This is why they created Mike Row as way to try to fix the shortage of trade people. Shortage of trade people started a long time ago, it did not just appear like that out of nowhere.
I told you that you lost the West a long time ago and it will never going to be rebuild after the collapse.
Alain Marcil on Sun, 27th Apr 2025 10:22 am
They are liar and they lied about everything including the shortage of trade people. Their smart cities dream will never happen because there is not enough competent trade people to make it happen.
I told you, they are just fucking losers. I know how they think as if I was the one that had created them.
Karine regean on Sun, 27th Apr 2025 10:26 am
Trump is on it also. Trying to push young people toward more manual labor with low pay.
Trump working at McDonald’s fry counter and drive thru while campaigning in Pennsylvania: FULL VIDEO
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CbEqxLa9vqg
People have no idea with what we are dealing with here.
Jean marie on Sun, 27th Apr 2025 10:29 am
This is why the universal energy field will be shutdown as soon as the chosen ones are extracted or received some kind of permanent protection allowing them to survive outside of earth realm.
Ulyse lamarde on Sun, 27th Apr 2025 11:07 am
Alanis Morrissette and Sheryl Crow are also the same person.
Morissette
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CUjIY_XxF1g
Crow
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dyihQtBes1I
They are everywhere as I said. Almost the same voice both have.
alain jamil on Sun, 27th Apr 2025 11:19 am
0:02 of Sheryl Crow song, notice the Endangered species.
This is to try to convince us that earth is real and beautiful. It is to try to convince us that we should be happy of living in a paradise called earth.
You see what I mean, they really are something these fucking cocksuckers.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dyihQtBes1I
jean marcil on Sun, 27th Apr 2025 12:04 pm
Tchernobyl : Une Catastrophe Nucléaire Qui a Changé l’Histoire à Tout Jamais – Documentaire CF
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IF43wbdjBaU
They always lie to hide the truth. Instead of telling us that Uranium is depleted, they will lie and come up with BS story like this.
They always lie about everything.
alain latune on Sun, 27th Apr 2025 12:06 pm
Same thing with Japon Fukushima.
Fukushima : Le séisme qui a causé une catastrophe nucléaire INÉVITABLE !
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g9AD6uN9tUE
Alain ledue on Sun, 27th Apr 2025 5:02 pm
There is a shortage of police officiers same as car mechanics. They don’t want people to know that. Otherwise the politicians, bankers, Judges, lawyers and universities elites will become easy targets. So they came up with fake arrest and fake shooting to convince people that there is no shortage of police officiers. This goes back to Mike Row comments I made above. It is important for them that people see law enforcement as something effective otherwise they lose a mean to control people and force them to obey voluntary all these BS laws.
Suspect arrested in Kristi Noem’s purse theft case | LiveNOW from FOX
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mhFWp_d9TNI
It is all about soft psychological control using the media.