[MicroHydro]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Chuck', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MicroHydro', 'I') am happy with Man Futures.

[MrBill]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') was lucky that I was at my desk so I switched within a few minutes to 1 Brent long. Can you imagine that after 4 such bloopers, I am looking for another broker?
About the job offer; I am so happy working this way. As you said, instant feedback and I have no explaining to do other than to myself. Working for a boss feels like a step back.
And do you know why you can only place limit orders when trading crude electronic? Or is it just Xpress? Not very relaxing if you can not place stop orders.

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'I')n FX it was 24-hours non-stop trading which meant no opens or closes. It is a different feel now.

[lakeweb]

Well, it is official.

---
MARKET WATCH
Crude futures end 2005 above $61/bbl

HOUSTON, Jan. 3 -- Energy prices continued to climb Dec. 30, the last trading day of 2005, with the front-month crude contract closing above $61/bbl on the New York market, up 40% from price levels at the start of last year.

http://ogj.pennnet.com/articles/article ... _id=244663

I voted <$60, no cigar...

Best, Dan.

[MicroHydro]

Well I voted for a year end price of around $65, so I was off on the poll. I was wrong on several picks this year.

But my overall commodities portfolio +143% in 2005.

In the first trading day of 2006 +9.7%. What a wild roller coaster ride 2005 was, all indications are that 2006 will be even more volatile with a continuing upward bias.

Now if we can just get a nice New England blizzard in January to bail out my February heating oil, which is still 2% in the red.

[threadbear]

This just in--the Vancouver Sun just quoted a broker from the local office of Edward Jones warning CANADIAN investors away from the Canadian markets!!! These people are beyond freaking belief. I opened an account with them in the US just before the Nas plummeted and had them put all of my investments in highly conservative dividend real estate equity accounts. They were aghast, AGHAST, I'll tell you. Why would a person settle for 7% return a year when they could get 30% in the Nas, or 15% in the blue chip Dow?

After more than doubling my money as the Nas collapsed and the Dow remained flat, I had them pull me out of residential equity last Jan and put it all in precious metal mutual funds and energy funds. I very nearly had a stroke dealing with them.

American brokers DO NOT like the precious metals sector as buying gold is a defensive measure against a collapsing market and dollar. Suggesting their customers buy gold in any appreciable amount is like saying, "oh and by the way, everything else I'm telling you is bullshit" I ended up almost yelling into the phone, "Look, your dollar's scary, and your country sucks, now get me the hell into these defensive areas, got it?"

To summarize--Edward Jones is a great contrary indicator and also indicates the terrific upside to precious metals, as people are still being steered in the wrong direction, leaving the more suspicious a tremendous buying opportunity.

The Moral of the Story--Never ever ask a broker what to do. Do your own research, open your own account or TELL your broker what to do. Most brokers are trapped in a closed informational loop that amounts to a self sustaining pumping operation for the fortune 500.


So SmallPox Girl--High five to you for your commodities portfolio. Commodities are the most difficult, so you either have a damned good broker or you're cagey as heck. It's not something I would try.

[Marklar]

what happened to MrBills daily commentaries? Is he stuck scratching his head on the recent jump in oil prices like I am?

[MrBill]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Marklar', 'w')hat happened to MrBills daily commentaries? Is he stuck scratching his head on the recent jump in oil prices like I am?

[MrBill]

news complimentary of Refco Overseas London who will shortly become Marathon Asset Management

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')ews:

· Valero said that it planned to delay maintenance and upgrades at some instillations. The work will still be carried however. The refineries affected are: Aruba (coker expansion pushed back until mid January), Corpus Christi, TX crude distillation maintenance starts Jan 20, Memphis, TN maintenance pushed back from Feb to March and an FCC maintenance at Lima OH, pushed back to April from March.

· Energy Markets are closed on Monday.

· MMS reports shut-in Gulf oil production is 396,786-bpd or 26.45% of daily totals. Since 8/26, 114.042 million bbl. has been shut in or 20.83% of annual Gulf production. Data will now be released every two weeks.

PERSPECTIVE: Oil is more preoccupied with political risk as opposed to the products, which declined in reaction to large stock builds last week. We expect Feb gasoline and heating oil to drift back below $1.70 with crude in a $62-$65 range. Feb crude is supported at $63.80; resistance is at $65.50. Feb heating oil is supported at $1.6910; resistance is at $1.7490. Feb gasoline is supported at $1.6910; resistance is at $1.7620.

PRICE OUTLOOK: The crude oil market looks well priced at these levels but the products may strengthen. A return to cold weather may jostle heat and there are persistent worries that gasoline will be tight in the upcoming season. Delays in maintenance may support refined output in the short term. The Asian markets may be slowing down before the Chinese New Year, which may free up extra crude and product.

[shakespear1]

Welcome Back Mr. Bill

Gold is doing nicely.

[MicroHydro]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'H')ave to think the effect on oil is more geopolitical at this point and not necessarily demand driven.

[MrBill]

double posting

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')osted: Mon Jan 16, 2006 1:43 pm Post subject: Re: A survey of the world economy

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

First prediction for 2006. This contract will likely succeed very well. Much better than the NYMEX's open outcry Brent contract to be sure.

Quote:
ATLANTA, GA (January 9, 2006) - IntercontinentalExchange (NYSE: ICE), the leading electronic energy marketplace, today announced that ICE Futures will launch an electronically traded WTI crude futures contract beginning in February. The ICE West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude futures contract will begin trading on February 3, pending regulatory approval. ICE will convert the liquid over-the-counter WTI Crude Oil Bullet swap contract currently trading in ICE’s electronic OTC markets to the ICE WTI Crude futures contract. Upon launch, open interest in the bullet swap will be transferred to an equivalent open interest position in futures.

The addition of WTI crude futures brings the world’s two most significant crude oil benchmarks together on ICE’s widely distributed trading platform. WTI is the leading benchmark for crude prices in the United States, and Brent is the leading benchmark for pricing crude and refined products produced and consumed outside of the United States.

“Following the successful transition to electronic trading in our global futures business, we have seen great demand for an electronically traded WTI futures contract from a wide range of market participants,” said Jeffrey C. Sprecher, ICE’s Chairman and CEO. “With the tremendous amount of business that takes place on a daily basis in the global oil markets, we believe the new contract will complete an already robust offering on ICE’s liquid marketplace by providing rapid and reliable price discovery and execution for crude oil transactions.”

A fee waiver on execution will be in place for the ICE WTI Crude futures contract from launch through March 31, 2006. Thereafter, a contract execution fee of $0.70 per side will be in effect.

The ICE WTI Crude futures contract will trade continuously for 21 hours a day – from 1:00 a.m. to 10:00 p.m. local London time, or from 8:00 p.m. through 5:00 p.m. Eastern time the next day. Each crude futures contract is sized at 1,000 barrels, with the contract price quoted in U.S. dollars and cents per barrel. The minimum price fluctuation will be one cent per barrel, equivalent to a tick value of $10.00.

Since ICE Futures went fully electronic last April, its benchmark IPE Brent Crude futures and IPE Gas Oil futures contracts have experienced dramatic growth. Each of the top five months in exchange-wide volumes in ICE Futures’ 25-year history has occurred since the transition to fully electronic trading.

Crude oil is one of the world’s most widely used commodities and among the most widely traded commodities. Crude oil refers to petroleum in its raw form. Brent crude oil is named for the Brent oil field in the North Sea, off the coast of Britain. Crude oil becomes useful after refining, which produces numerous oil-based component products, including petroleum gas, gasoline, kerosene, gas oil, lubricating oils and residuals, among others.


About IntercontinentalExchange

IntercontinentalExchange® (NYSE: ICE) operates the leading electronic global futures and OTC marketplace for trading energy commodity contracts, including crude oil and refined products, natural gas, power and emissions. ICE conducts its markets for futures trading through its regulated subsidiary, ICE Futures, Europe's leading energy futures and options exchange. ICE also offers a range of risk management and trading support services, including cleared OTC contracts, electronic trade confirmations and energy market data. ICE is based in Atlanta, Georgia with offices in Calgary, Chicago, Houston, London, New York and Singapore. For more information, please visit www.theice.com.




The Ice Contract Cometh

[MrBill]

Here is PruBache's spin on recent events incl. Iran

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')rude/Products:
The crack spreads strengthened for the first time in more than a week with heating oil acquiring a lift off of a Northeast cool down this weekend and with the unleaded futures receiving some support off of a reported east coast refinery glitch. Short covering ahead of an extended weekend was apparent within the crack spreads as well as the overall market.
Looking ahead to next week, the Iran nuclear issue may require additional injection of risk premium and the weekly gasoline stats will likely be much more supportive than this week’s numbers. Although the crude and distillate supply/usage balances are better equipped to handle
the threat of global supply disruptions than was the case prior to the Iraq war, an anticipated tightening in gasoline supply due to current deficits, heavy refinery maintenance and specification changes will keep the unleaded futures just as sensitized to future Iranian developments as the
crude oil. We look for the heating oil to generally remain as the weak leg in the complex even if temperatures shift back to the cold side. Overall, we are still leaving open the possibility that risk premium injection related to the Iranian nuclear issue is capable of forcing a hoarding mentality
across both the crude and product markets within the limits of storage availability. We are still maintaining a bullish stance on the expectation of a further crude price advance to the $65.50 area. Despite this week’s weakness in the unleaded crack spreads, we still feel that the gasoline market complex can lead the complex higher through much of the 1st
quarter.

Natural Gas: Today’s fresh 5 month lows keep the bear market much alive. However, with the market approaching our objective of $8.50, we would caution against fresh short positions and would be poised to accept at least partial profits on further price weakness. Although the weather factor still leans in a bearish direction, a possible shift in the forecasts over a long weekend is always possible. Nonetheless, the market will still be forced to contend with another 2-3 bearish storage draws that will maintain focus on a possible record supply level at the end of the withdrawal season at around April 1st. With storage declining only 19 bf during the past 2 weeks, the deficit against last year has virtually been erased and a surplus should build as the winter proceeds. As a consequence, maintaining an $8.00 handle may require a firm oil price
environment in the coming weeks. Otherwise, additional price slippage of $1.00-2.00 is possible, especially if weather patterns continue warm into February. For now, we are maintaining a bearish trading bias in anticipation of a further price slide to the $8.50 area.
.

[Dukat_Reloaded]

Gee, the shorts are really getting killed everywhere, looks like we are in a full blown worldwide inflation crisis. Stocks are going up, oil is going up, metals are going up, everything no matter how stupid is going up. I thought the close of gold was high last week, it's now almost $560, honestly I thought it might drop, but I think the best thing right now no matter how high it is, just go long in everything.

[Dukat_Reloaded]

[truecougarblue]

Nice trick, Dukat. I'd just refreshed that chart in another window and did a double take when I scrolled to your post.

[MrBill]

Oil is higher on geopolitical worries about Iran and Nigeria. No solutions in sight. China and Russia are against sanctions. China gets 12% of their oil from Iran and Russia has oil and nuclear interests in Iran. Worries as well about supply interuptions should Iran be placed under sanctions.

From a technical point of view, in the March Brent contract, $6390/6400 represents the .618R from $6925 to 5525 in the C leg of an A B C correction. A close above $6400 clearly sets us up for an extended move higher. Support near $6200 so it is a case of buying on the dips.

Gold is off on profit taking and producers forward selling production.

I don't talk near enough FX even though it is my first love. So here is an article from Bloomberg on the dollar. Any thoughts on a stronger or weaker dollar in 2006?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')ollar Advances Against Euro and Yen as U.S. Factory Indexes Show Growth
Jan. 17 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar rose against the euro and the yen as U.S. manufacturing reports bolstered speculation the world's largest economy is growing fast enough for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates twice more.

Higher borrowing costs would maintain the yield advantage U.S. Treasuries offer over European and Japanese debt, which pushed the dollar to its first annual gain in four years in 2005. The Fed has raised rates 13 times since June 2004. The dollar fell as much as 2.8 percent this year versus the euro as traders increased bets the U.S. rate premium would decline.

``It is too early to write the dollar off just yet,'' said David Mozina, a currency strategist at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in New York. ``I'm not convinced that the best is over for the dollar. The market has moved to a stance that is too dovish on the Fed.''

The U.S. currency strengthened to $1.2078 per euro at 11:30 a.m. in New York from $1.2127 late yesterday. The dollar climbed to 115.77 yen from 114.96. The dollar gained more than 14 percent in 2005 versus the euro and the yen. U.S. markets were closed yesterday for the Martin Luther King holiday.

Manufacturing in New York state expanded in January, a Fed report showed today. The Fed Bank of New York's general business conditions index was 20.1 this month, compared with a revised 26.3 in December. Readings greater than zero signal growth. This month's reading was above the 15.6 average for 2005.

A separate Fed report showed industrial production rose more than analysts forecast as factories ran at the fastest pace in more than five years. Output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities climbed 0.6 percent, after a revised 0.8 percent gain in November. Economists expected a 0.5 percent advance, based on the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey.

`Good Backdrop'

The reports ``provide a relatively good backdrop for the dollar,'' said Daniel Katzive, a currency strategist with UBS AG in Stamford, Connecticut. They will keep traders from being ``too hasty from concluding with certainty that the Fed is done with its tightening after the January meeting,'' he said.

Futures trading suggests investors see about a 56 percent chance that the Fed will raise its benchmark rate in March after an expected quarter-point increase to 4.5 percent on Jan. 31. The dollar dropped earlier this month after traders scaled back expectations of further moves. The last time the Fed lifted rates 15 straight times was between July 1978 and October 1979.

The Fed last month raised its benchmark rate to 4.25 percent, and all 31 economists in a Bloomberg survey forecast another increase at the end of this month. The European Central Bank held its key rate steady last week after lifting it in December for the first time in five years to 2.25 percent. The Bank of Japan has kept rates near zero percent since 2001.

Fed Speakers

``The market is assuming another rate hike and these numbers will probably endorse that,'' said Tim Fox, a currency strategist at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein in London. ``There's going to be one more rate hike, maybe even two.'

Fed officials this week may provide clues as to the outlook for rate increases. Fed Governor Susan Schmidt Bies, Jeffrey Lacker of the Richmond Fed and Richard Fisher of the Dallas Fed will all speak tomorrow. Atlanta Fed President Jack Guynn and San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen also speak this week.

The 10-year Treasury note yielded 110 basis points more than the German government bond with a similar maturity today, up from 108 basis points yesterday. The difference, or spread, averaged 90 basis points in 2005. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.

Headed for Fall

Investors still say the dollar is headed for a fall this year, according to Merrill Lynch & Co. A ``breathtaking'' number of fund managers predict the U.S. currency will drop against the yen in 2006 because the Fed is close to ending its 18-month series of rate increases, the firm said a survey showed.

The euro weakened after a government report showed inflation in Germany, Europe's largest economy, eased to 2.1 percent in December, the lowest annual rate since August, compared with 2.3 percent the previous month.

The yen earlier gained against the dollar on speculation yesterday's 0.7 percent drop wasn't justified by prospects for improved growth in the world's second-biggest economy.

Japan's households became less pessimistic in the fourth quarter, lifting a confidence index to a 14 1/2-year high, the Cabinet Office said in Tokyo. The yen had its biggest decline versus the U.S. currency in almost three weeks yesterday.

``It's a positive background for the yen, and investors are coming back in after a large move yesterday,'' said Jeremy Stretch, a currency strategist at Rabobank Groep in London. ``The economic recovery looks pretty durable and we'll be seeing the end of deflation soon.''

Japanese Confidence

Confidence among households with two or more people rose to 48.2 in the three months ending in December, the highest since the second quarter of 1991, from 44.8 in the third quarter. Readings below 50 mean pessimists outnumber optimists.

The yen may extend gains on speculation Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui may indicate the central bank is closer to ending its zero-interest rate policy when it meets later this week.

Japan's consumer prices rose in November for the first time in two years. Sustained price increases would allow the BOJ to reduce the amount of cash it pumps into the economy, a precursor to raising interest rates.

``I expect more hawkish comments from Fukui after this week's policy meeting,'' said Lee Wai Tuck, a currency strategist at Forecast Singapore Ltd. ``He will probably say deflation is near an end and signal an earlier end to easy monetary policy.''

[MrBill]

Iran and Nigeria continue to dominate price action, and even though markets appear overbought according to RSIs, I do not see any quick solution in sight? Nigeria remains one of the poorest and worst governed countries in the world despite some $300 billion in oil & gas over the past decades, legitimizing complaints by those have nots directly affected by environmental degradation in the delta, while cleptocrats in the capital and their cronies reap the windfall.

In Iran, they must know that they are insulated for the time being from any international censure by the threat of disrruptions to oil supplies during a period of expected narrow capacity surplus where demand is rising faster than supply and protected by China's and Russia's reluctance to refer them to the security council or propose sanctions. Impunity for their actions seems to be their motivating incentive to push ahead with sensitive nuclear research at this point. A gamble to be sure, but realistically with the USA isolated and bogged down in Iraq, a good bluff.

Therefore, although the temptation would be to buy out of the money puts here, I am not sure. Too early in the year and mindful of last summer's rally I hate to get run over by a train with a head full of steam. Best wait until some indicators turn instead of getting in too soon.

No particular technical targets in sight here now that we are well above the $6400 mentioned yesterday except for the $69.25 previous high in March Brent from August 2005 when the front month hit $70.85 in the WTI after Katerina. Fund buying and the risk premium of supply disruptions, while the US implements tougher diesel and unleaded environmental refining requirements, certainly are trumping any mild weather or increases in supply at the moment.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')ews:
· Shell Nigeria declared force majeure on 106,000-bpd in Forcados crude oil exports following an explosion on the Trans Ramos oil pipeline. It was sabotaged on Wednesday, causing the shutdown of four flow stations. Force majeure was also declared on the 115,000-bpd EA oilfield. Militants have threatened new attacks on oil installations over the next few days. A spokesman for Exxon Mobil denied a shipping agent report that loadings at its two major oil export terminals were suspended due to fears of attacks.

· Iraqi crude flows to the port of Ceyhan were stopped at midday Monday in order to rebuild stocks at Kirkuk following a one-day pumping restart. Flows had run at a rate of 22,000-bbl/hour.

· OPEC president Edmund Daukoru said ministers might have to consider cutting crude production at their Jan 31 meeting in order to prevent a decline in prices. Though he conceded that prices are high right now, he is concerned with what happens in 3-4 months. “The situation is very delicate.”

· Iraq has delayed contracted Basra light crude oil for Jan delivery due to slow exports from southern terminals and a backlog from previous months.

· Saudi Aramco has contracted four VLCCs this week to ship 8.2 million barrels of crude to the US in early February.

· Russian oil production has been cut by an average 200,000-bpd to 9.45-mbpd Jan 10-16 as compared with December’s average 9.65-mbpd, an all-time high. Extreme cold in the main producing area of West Siberia hindered output.

· Colonial Pipeline extended allocations on its distillate pipeline because shipments exceeded pipeline capacity.

· Louisiana reports restored oil production is 123,913-bpd or 61% of daily oil production capacity.

· Baker Hughes weekly rig count up 3; up 209 year-on-year. Oil rigs down 2.

Refinery news:
· Citgo shut a catalytic cracker at its 165,000-bpd Corpus Christi, TX refinery for unplanned work on Sunday though traders said it had returned Tuesday morning.

· Conoco Phillips is planning scheduled maintenance on its 263,000-bpd Bayway refinery in Linden, NJ for five weeks beginning at the end of February.

· Conoco Phillips plans to shut a continuous catcracker at its 229,000-bpd Sweeny, TX refinery for an overhaul beginning on Friday.

· Western Refining plans to shut the 52,000-bpd south plant of its 108,000-bpd El Paso, TX refinery beginning January 22.

[MrBill]

This week's inventory data is forecast to show builds, but that is not the real story at the moment. Iran and Nigeria and other supply worries are. However, of note, several cargoes of Russian Ural blend crude have been sold to US buyers as freight rates decrease and demand for discounted higher sulfur grade crudes finds its way into the US after disruptions in Iraq resulted in less shipments during the past month. Approximately 300.000 tonnes of fuel oil is booked to go to the US Gulf between now and the end of January.

Forecasts for today's inventory data are

Crude -0.1 mio to unch'd
Distillates 2.3 to 2.5 mio
Unleaded 1.5 to 2.0 mio
Refinery runs up to 90.8% vs. 89.9%

[CB00097]

Any idea what the equity sell-off was all about today?

My guess was that at least one hedge fund was playing Japan on margin got creamed overnight and had to dump their energy positions to cover.



Matthew.