[Armageddon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'I') think this is one of the most important threads on PO.com right now. It goes to the heart of what a lot of us have been saying for a while now.

Hard data, accurate data, and timely data is probably the biggest tool we can use to look forward. Without it we are just a bunch of looney's on the net.This is really important stuff and I hope we can get to the bottom of what is really going on.

[peripato]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'I') think this is one of the most important threads on PO.com right now. It goes to the heart of what a lot of us have been saying for a while now.

Hard data, accurate data, and timely data is probably the biggest tool we can use to look forward. Without it we are just a bunch of looney's on the net.This is really important stuff and I hope we can get to the bottom of what is really going on.

[kmann]

Is it possible that the extra oil produced is still in transit and hasn't shown up in stocks yet? It takes several weeks for a tanker to cross the ocean. Has there been an increase in shipping traffic?

[strider3700]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kmann', 'I')s it possible that the extra oil produced is still in transit and hasn't shown up in stocks yet? It takes several weeks for a tanker to cross the ocean. Has there been an increase in shipping traffic?

[TonyPrep]

The summary also said that OPEC supplies increased by .4 mbpd (ahead of their "planned" increase), so that would mean non-OPEC supply increased by 1 mbpd, at a time when the IEA have been saying that non-OPEC production has plateaued. But the summary doesn't make a big meal out of a huge non-OPEC increase, so maybe it is a typo, probably well below 1 mbpd.

[Twilight]

I have long been slightly worried that the West's data transparency is too good to last. I have never held out much hope of being able to log onto a website in 2020 and be able to check the figures, but I wouldn't like the dissemination of plain bollocks data to begin now.

[peripato]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'I') think this is one of the most important threads on PO.com right now. It goes to the heart of what a lot of us have been saying for a while now.

Hard data, accurate data, and timely data is probably the biggest tool we can use to look forward. Without it we are just a bunch of looney's on the net.This is really important stuff and I hope we can get to the bottom of what is really going on.

[dohboi]

Has anyone else noticed this just out over at TOD?:

"Oilwatch Monthly - November 2007
Posted by Rembrandt on November 15, 2007 - 10:00pm in The Oil Drum: Europe
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: exports, non-opec, oilwatch, opec

The November edition of Oilwatch Monthly can be downloaded at this weblink (PDF, 1.5 MB, 21 pp). At the time of writing the latest IEA oil market report had not yet been published which has therefore not been incorporated in the PDF, but it is included in the figures and charts below.

Latest Developments (these include the IEA report which has not been published):

1) Crude Oil - Latest available figures from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) show that crude oil production including lease condensates decreased by 706,000 b/d from July to August. Total production in August was estimated at 72.51 million b/d, which is 1.79 million b/d lower than the all time high crude oil production of 74.30 million b/d reached in May 2005.

2) Total liquids - In October world production of total liquids increased by 1.4 million barrels per day from September according to the latest figures of the International Energy Agency (IEA). Resulting in total world liquids production of 86.5 million b/d, which is the all time high maximum liquids production."

So it looks like the summary gave the figure for total liquids as the figure for total crude. Intentional? Am I missing something? Klare recently wrote a piece in the Nation about the shift toward reporting total liquids as a way to obscure PO. Perhaps that's what we're seeing here?

[TonyPrep]

As far as I'm aware, the IEA have always reported supply as all liquids, whereas the EIA also break it out.

I read somewhere that NGL, which seems to be the component which is keeping total liquid production on a plateau, is a relatively short lived phenomenon and is likely to peak quite soon. Does anyone have more info on this? It seems to be a fairly new component to oil production, which was almost all crude oil and condensate.

[shortonoil]

kmann said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')s it possible that the extra oil produced is still in transit and hasn't shown up in stocks yet? It takes several weeks for a tanker to cross the ocean. Has there been an increase in shipping traffic?

[DantesPeak]

After seeing that Russia's output is not up that much, and OPEC reporting even less of a gian than the IEA, I'm coming to the conclusion that the latest IEA figures are just wrong.

Generally the IEA has revised downward much more than up, so why would it be surprising if that happened again.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ut Russia is still one of the few oil-rich nations outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries that is pumping more oil every year, in contrast to mature oil provinces like the North Sea, which are petering out. "With oil production expected to grow by 220,000 barrels a day this year, Russia is still outperforming the rest of non-OPEC," said Paul Horsnell, an oil analyst at Barclays Capital.

[shortonoil]

DantesPeak said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ut Russia is still one of the few oil-rich nations outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries that is pumping more oil every year, in contrast to mature oil provinces like the North Sea, which are petering out. "With oil production expected to grow by 220,000 barrels a day this year, Russia is still outperforming the rest of non-OPEC," said Paul Horsnell, an oil analyst at Barclays Capital.

[mkwin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'A')s far as I'm aware, the IEA have always reported supply as all liquids, whereas the EIA also break it out.

I read somewhere that NGL, which seems to be the component which is keeping total liquid production on a plateau, is a relatively short lived phenomenon and is likely to peak quite soon. Does anyone have more info on this? It seems to be a fairly new component to oil production, which was almost all crude oil and condensate.

[sparky]

.

When extracting gas from a well there is a lot of rubbish with it ,
water and various liquid gas , most are kept in a liquid phase by the pressure in the system , the condensates can be legitimate only if they stay liquid at ambient Temp. and Pressure , it's the same as not counting as oil the gasing off from the crude
It's all kosher up to a point

The IEA do NOT lie , they just publish the figures given to them by the members and the industry,
admitedly some of those numbers are sometimes discreetly adjusted to something better in the fullness of time

there has been a mighty tug of war between speculators and the establishment ,

This one was the cherry on top of the cake , a supremely authoritative statement by the man who should know to a preeminent financial paper ,

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/38dd00ca-90a6 ... a-82ea-000
published on the start of the week when 24.000 options at 100$ a barrel were due , this kind of coverage got to have been authorized from well above the Pentagon

Some of the stocks movements since three months seems to make sense only if the trading of futures option was the only concern , also some of the outage of the refineries prior to the driving season stank to high heavens You don't plan maintenance during your busy season and breakdown take days to fix not weeks

.

[abelardlindsay]

What I really want to know is what are oil exports doing? That IMHO is where the rubber really hits the road if one lives in an oil importing country.

http://netoilexports.blogspot.com/

has pretty good data. They haven't published the November update yet though. Looks like exports peaked in December 2005 at 40.445 million barrels and are down about 4.82 percent from peak at 38.497 Barrels a day. The November update should be interesting.

[eastbay]

Thanks for the nice link abe. I'll add it to the list of info sources I regularly review.

[TonyPrep]

OK, the full November report is now available at the IEA site. There was no typo in the summary. The tables show world production at 86.43 mbpd for October, an increase of 1.41 mbpd over a slightly downwardly revised September figure. This is 0.3 mbpd more than the third revision of the IEA July 2006 figure of 86.13 mbpd, the only other time that production exceeded 86 mbpd since that date.

It'll be interesting to see what revisions there are over the next two months but October 2007 stands as the new IEA peak month, for now.

There aren't any figures for monthly global demand but the IEA are forecasting an average demand of 87.1 mbpd in the 4th quarter so production will have to increase by another million barrels and stay there for the remaining two months of the quarter, for that estimate to be satisfied purely by production (as opposed to stock drawdown).

[sciencegirl]

Okay, I am not an expert in this, but would it not be better to look at oil production per year rather than by month, to determine the year of peak oil.

[thor]

Talking heads in the oil industry have all said that $100 is on its way, so this 1.4m is highly questionable.

[Valdemar]

So is this genuinely a new peak? Isn't that something? It's meagre and upholds "undulating plateaux", but if true, wouldn't this have a major effect?