[seahorse2]

Please DP, don't let facts stand in the way of optimism.

[Leanan]

Does anyone have the full report?

They may have revised the previous month down, and making the "increase" not as large as it seems.

Or they may have made a mistake.

The thing is, they have stocks down. If demand is down and production is up, shouldn't stocks be up as well?

I'd really like to see the details before jumping to any conclusions...

[turmoil]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nano', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mkwin', 'I')f the crude inventory increases tomorrow I think oil is going to fall back to around $80.

[DantesPeak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leanan', 'D')oes anyone have the full report?

They may have revised the previous month down, and making the "increase" not as large as it seems.

Or they may have made a mistake.

The thing is, they have stocks down. If demand is down and production is up, shouldn't stocks be up as well?

I'd really like to see the details before jumping to any conclusions...

[sjn]

Seems like the IEA is trying to help Robert Rapier out on his bet...

Seriously, the IEA is a political organisation, they are simply doing their job. Letting oil prices exceed $100 dollars at this point isn't in the interest of their clients.

[TonyPrep]

My thoughts exactly. The summary usually gives a total figure but this summary didn't, so we don't know what the increase is based on. But with OECD stocks falling by almost 1 mbpd in September, does that imply that demand has rocketed, or that non-OECD stocks, for some reason, have also increased markedly. Set that against a figure that will probably be revised, as most are, then we really need to wait and see.

A Bloomberg story suggested that the fall in price was due to a downgraded forecast for demand, in this OMR. If there was any evidence of reduced demand then surely oil stocks would have increased, not decreased.

[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', 'W')hile the IEA says that OPEC increased production by 410,000 bpd, it says overall oil supply grew by 1.4 million bpd in October. Where did that come from?

[DantesPeak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'I')'ll wait for the confirm, but let's all hope this turns out to be a terrible mistake. Because if it isn't, and we have a new peak, I am going to shred you people. <sharpens knife>

[Armageddon]

They are manipulating the numbers to keep the price down, otherwise they will bankrupt this entire global financial system. They are just buying more time for the inevitable.

[MD]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '.')..Because if it isn't, and we have a new peak, I am going to shred you people. <sharpens knife>

[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'T')hey are manipulating the numbers

[Zardoz]

So, numbers are never manipulated, JD? We can put full faith in them, in spite of what appears to be some contradictory data?

Trusting soul, aren't you?

And speaking of IEA numbers, here's some that may encourage you to put that knife back in the drawer:





You've seen them before. Have you forgotten about them already? We'd love to hear your take on them.

[Barbara]

What's the fuss?
NO NEW PEAKS bro.

Download the report and read page 48. September production is higher than August, at 85.09, but still far from July 2006 peak.

Also, 3rd quarter is lower than 2nd quarter 85.08 versus 85.12.

So, nothing to worry about. Our reputation is safe (for the moment...).

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Barbara', 'W')hat's the fuss?
NO NEW PEAKS bro.

Download the report and read page 48. September production is higher than August, at 85.09, but still far from July 2006 peak.

Also, 3rd quarter is lower than 2nd quarter 85.08 versus 85.12.

So, nothing to worry about. Our reputation is safe (for the moment...).

[Barbara]

Ah LOL
Thanks Tony!

So we can guess the expensive subscription is in the hands of "those who know"?

[Coolman]

The fact that inventory supplies fell during October in US and Japan is a hint that something is not right.

Any one have any info on other counties inventories did they fall?

[highlander]

I guess I am in awe of the stupidity of the "experts". All it takes is a well timed news release and people fall all over themselves to profit from what the "news" stated. Only later do the "revised" figures come out, erasing their paper profits.
yesterday Goldman-Sachs CEO said they were not going to get hurt from the sub-prime mortgage catastrophy. Their stock soared.
IEA said production soared 1.4 mbd, oil falls $3-4
Yesterday DOW was up, the dollar has come off its lows. Today they resume their long slow slippery slide doooowwwwnnnn.

[Leanan]

Moe_Gamble at TOD pointed out that back in the '90s, they issued a report that was high by a million barrels a day. Basically, it was a math error on their part.

I really wish someone who had a subscription would enlighten us as to where this supposed increase is coming from.

[DantesPeak]

China report's that its oil production only increased slightly in October (so JD you can put that knife away now).

Look's like the IEA has some explaining to do as to where they got their output figures from.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')hina's Oct. Oil Production Climbs 1.9%, Coal Output Rises 4%

By Ying Lou

Nov. 15 (Bloomberg) -- China increased crude oil output 1.9 percent last month to help meet rising energy demand in the world's fastest-growing major economy.

Production climbed to 15.81 million metric tons (about 3.7 million barrels a day) in October, according to a statement from China National Bureau of Statistics. Raw coal output rose 4 percent to 199 million tons and power generation increased 13.9 percent to 272.8 million megawatt-hours last month, it said.

Last Updated: November 14, 2007 21:14 EST

[AirlinePilot]

I think this is one of the most important threads on PO.com right now. It goes to the heart of what a lot of us have been saying for a while now.

Hard data, accurate data, and timely data is probably the biggest tool we can use to look forward. Without it we are just a bunch of looney's on the net.This is really important stuff and I hope we can get to the bottom of what is really going on.