Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

THE House Resolution (HR) Thread (merged)

A forum for discussion of regional topics including oil depletion but also government, society, and the future.

Re: House Resolution Calls for Naval Blockade against Iran

Unread postby bkwillia » Fri 27 Jun 2008, 10:15:23

This will get a big fat veto. This will hurt the Iranians, but not the Iranian nuclear program. We need to win hearts and minds, not wars.
User avatar
bkwillia
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 68
Joined: Mon 20 Aug 2007, 03:00:00

Re: House Resolution Calls for Naval Blockade against Iran

Unread postby Buggy » Fri 27 Jun 2008, 10:39:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jotapay', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Buggy', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jotapay', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Buggy', 'S')orry if I don't hop on the Iran love wagon here, but they have been asking for it since 1979. Are there ANY republicans in here?


I'm old school conservative, but I would not be caught dead around the Jesus-freak, Israel-supporting, science-hatin', corporate lapdogs who call themselves Republicans these days and who voted for George Bush twice in a row. You should be ashamed of yourself. DIAF.


Nice to see that whole liberal tolerance mechanism kicking. Such a pragmatic paradox.


You must have missed this part. I'll spell it out for the cheap seats: $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jotapay', 'I')'M OLD SCHOOL CONSERVATIVE....


I guess being a small government, laissez faire capitalist, personal freedoms and personal responsibility kinda guy is liberal now. From a fascist point of view, I suppose that's possible.

I think I just heard some Israeli jerking your chain. Better see what he wants.


My mistake. It's hard to hear from the cheap seats. I must have missed the part where calling people Israel-supporting, science-hatin', Jesus freaks is an old school conservative attribute.


Jotapay wrote:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')uggy, read up on U.S., British and French involvement in Iran for the past 100 years, then put the shoe on the other foot. See how it fits, then get back to us.


Yes. Bad foreign policy. I addressed that. Shoe on the other foot? Have you? If so, what are you, a 100 year old Iranian? What is this about getting back to "us"? Did you take a poll? Is it now Peak Oil against Buggy because I didn't go with the flow and want to love all over poor, misunderstood Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the guy who says the holocaust didn't happen and would blow Israel off the map in a heartbeat if he could get away with it?
Buggy
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 284
Joined: Mon 23 Jun 2008, 03:00:00
Top

Re: House Resolution Calls for Naval Blockade against Iran

Unread postby Petrodollar » Fri 27 Jun 2008, 11:30:36

Just a couple of historical issues to consider regarding Iran and western oil imperialism - and an ironic parallel between the British naval blockade of 1951 and the proposed US Naval blockade of 2008...

First, it is simply not possible to understand today's US-Iranian relationship without understanding the events of 1951-1953. By far, the best book on this subject is All the Shah's Men: An American Coup and the Roots of Middle East Terror by Stephen Kinzer. I highly recommend this book, and IMO, outlining how the CIA carried out operation AJAX would also make an excellent movie.

Image

First, a little history lesson is warranted:

During the two great wars of the 20th century, oil often proved to be the defining natural resource that was required to project military power on the sea, air, and land. Indeed, oil factored into victories and defeats during major military campaigns throughout the century.

At the onset of the 20th century, Germany recognized the importance of oil, and from 1899 to 1914, attempted to build a ‘Berlin-to-Baghdad’ railroad. Along with an advanced naval fleet, the German railroad project created a significant geopolitical rift with the British Empire.

At the time the British Navy was determined to convert her fleet from coal-burning to oil-burning ships, and Berlin’s plans to gain access to large amounts of petroleum in modern day Iraq was a important but hidden factor in Britain’s declaration of war against Germany in 1914. In 1918, the final year of WWI, Sir Maurice Hankey, Britain’s First Secretary of the War Cabinet wrote,

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Oil in the next war will occupy the place of coal in the present war, or at least a parallel place to coal. The only big potential supply that we can get under British control is the Persian [now Iran] and Mesopotamian [now Iraq] supply…Control over these oil supplies becomes a first class British war aim.


Not surprisingly, the British did exactly what Sir Hankey recommended; in 1919 they carved-up the defeated Ottoman Empire and colonized the oil-rich regions of Iran and Iraq.

Life was good for the British for a few decades following their control of Iran's oil wealth - especially because 80% to 85% of the profits from the Anglo-Iranian oil company (later to become British Petrolem or BP) - went straight to London's coffers.

On the other hand, the Iranians got a bit tired of being so exploited, and by the late 1940s they hated the British and their colonial occupiers (see modern day Iraq for historical parallels)

These sentiments were shared by an Iranian politician in his early 60s, Mohammed Mossadegh, a staunch nationalist and anti-communist. He insisted that Iran be allowed to audit the accounting books from the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company. This was a matter of due diligence to Mossadegh, who believed that Iran was not receiving its fair financial return from its vital oil exports. The British steadfastly refused.

Well, in 1951 the Parliament democratically elected Mossadegh as the Prime Minister of Iran, and he promptly nationalized Iran's oil. He offered the British a 50/50 split (which Saudi Arabia and other nations had recently negotiated with the American gov't/US oil companies). Mossadegh's approval rating was around 90% after he nationalized their oil, and offered a compromise with the UK.

However, Iran's proposal for a 50/50 split was unacceptable to the UK elites, and British Prime Minister Arden organized a naval blockade of Iran, froze its overseas financial assets, and claimed that Iran’s nationalization of its own oil was illegal. However, the World Court upheld Mossadegh’s action. In 1951, Time named Mossadegh Man of the Year, describing him as “the Iranian George Washington” but also as an exasperating, “defiant man [who] dissolved one of the remaining pillars of a great empire.”

Undeterred by this turn of events or by Mossadegh’s popularity with the Iranian people, Churchill asked Truman to help overthrow Mossadegh and regain British control over Iran’s oil export revenue. Truman declined and attempted to foster diplomatic mediation. However, in February 1953 Allen Dulles sent the newly sworn-in President Eisenhower a ridiculous intelligence estimate suggesting that a “Communist takeover is becoming more and more of a possibility” in Iran.

Eisenhower subsequently agreed to a covert operation in Iran code-named Ajax. In Operation Ajax, the CIA successfully overthrew Mossadegh in August 1953. The CIA then installed Mohammed Shah, a member of the Iranian monarchy who later became despised as a US puppet. The Shah used the brutal SAVAK secret police force to maintain his grip on power. Widespread political imprisonments, torture, and killings ultimately radicalized Iranian society.

This “blowback” ultimately resulted in the deportation of the Shah to the US and the Iranian Revolution of 1979. Kinzer’s research shows that many Iranians were very pro-US before the CIA’s successful coup of Iran’s fledging democracy:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hy did you Americans do that terrible thing?’ a relative of Mossadegh demands of Kinzer. ‘We always loved America. To us, America was the great country, the perfect country, the country that helped us while other countries were exploiting us. But after that moment, no one in Iran ever trusted the United States again. I can tell you for sure that if you had not done that thing, you would never have had that problem of hostages being taken in your embassy in Tehran. All your trouble started in 1953. Why, why did you do it?’


The answer to her question can be summarized in one word — greed, stemming from powerful oil interests enacting unwarranted influence on British and American foreign policies.

So, here we are, 50+ years later... Not much has changed in the five decades since Mossadegh’s ouster. The Western “participants” in the Middle East are essentially the same, although the US is now the principal provocateur, and the “Communist threat” has of course morphed into the vague and ever-useful “terrorist threat.”

However, the main actors are becoming more desperate as Peak Oil looms, and now the US Congress is asking for a naval blockade of Iran, even though it does not pose a direct threat to US national security. Why are the Americans following a similar pattern of madness that inflcited the British 57 years ago? Well, just as Mossadegh was described as an exasperating, “defiant man [who] dissolved one of the remaining pillars of a great empire.” Today, Ahmadinejad, the current Iranian president, is also trying to "dissolve one of the remaining pillars of a great empire."

This time it is the declining US empire that is fighting back, and the pillar that is eroding is the US dollar itself. Unlike the subservient, pro-imperial US media conglomerates, you can read about the underlying conflict in the foreign media. For example:

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Eco ... 1Dj07.html

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')eb 21, 2008
Slouching towards Petroeurostan
By Pepe Escobar

It was a discreet, almost hush-hush affair, but after almost three years of stalling and endless delays it finally happened. Now more than ever, it may also signal a geoeconomic earthquake, a potentially shattering blow to US dollar hegemony.

The Iranian oil bourse - the first oil, gas and petrochemical exchange in the Islamic Republic, and the first within the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) - was launched on Sunday by Iran’s Oil Minister Gholam-Hossein Nozari, flanked by Minister of Economy and Financial Affairs Davoud Danesh Ja’fari, the man who will head the exchange.

Officially called the Iranian International Petroleum Exchange(IIPE), it is widely known in Iran and the Persian Gulf as the Kish bourse, named after Kish island, a free zone (declared by the shah) in an ideal laissez faire setting: lots of condos and duty-free malls, no Khomeini mega-portraits and hordes of young honeymooners shopping for made-in-Europe home appliances.

Transactions at this early stage will be in Iran’s currency, the rial, according to Nozari, ending worldwide speculation that the bourse would start trading in euros. The Iranian ambassador to Russia, Gholam-Reza Ansari, has said that "in the future, we'll be able to use the ruble, Russia’s national currency, in our operations". He added that "Russia and Iran, two major producers of the world’s energy, should encourage oil and gas transactions in various non-dollar currencies, releasing the world from being a slave of the dollar."

Russia’s First Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said last week that "the ruble will de facto become one of the regional reserve currencies".


...We shall see, but my advice is follow the money, and today's events make a lot more sense...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he opening of the exchange is just what the Iranians are calling the first phase. Ultimately, it is intended that it will compete directly against London’s International Petroleum Exchange (IPE) and the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), both owned by US corporations (since 2001, NYMEX has been owned by a consortium that includes BP, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley). What Iran plans to do in the long run is quite daring: to confront head-on Anglo-American energy/corporate banking domination of the international oil trade.


...and getting back to this ideal of a naval blockade and the ongoing petrodollar warfare that began back in 2000 with Saddam's switch to the euro for Iraq's oil exports...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]The empire will strike back
The opening of the Iran oil bourse comes at a time when the future of the US dollar as the world's dominant currency is in doubt as seldom before.

At the World Economic Forum in Davos last month, mega-speculator George Soros stressed that the world was at the end of the dollar era and a "systemic failure" may be upon us. On February 8 in Dubai, OPEC Secretary-General Abdullah al-Badri told the London-based Middle East Economic Digest that OPEC may switch to the euro within a decade. Iran and Venezuela - supported by Ecuador - are campaigning inside OPEC for oil to be priced at least in a basket of currencies and according to OPEC’s current president, Chakib Khelil, the organization's finance ministers will soon meet to discuss the possibility in depth. A committee will "submit to OPEC its recommendation on a basket of currencies that OPEC members will deal with", according to Iraqi Oil Minister Hussein al-Shahristani.

To be sure, there’s no evidence yet that ultra-cautious US ally Saudi Arabia would incur Washington’s wrath by supporting such a move. {...that's a major understatment...} But as for Iran, OPEC's second-largest exporter, it no longer trades a single barrel of oil in dollars. That is no small amount of non-dollars. The country's oil revenue will reach US$63 billion by the end of the current Iranian year on March 20, according to Nozari.

Iran converted all its oil export payments to other currencies in December 2007. It now sells oil to Japan in yen - the Far East country, the world's second biggest economy, is the top importer of Iranian oil and Iran is Japan’s third-largest supplier. Worryingly for the dollar, other oil producers are preparing to follow Iran's lead. Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim al-Thani has already announced that the tiny oil-rich emirate would abandon the dollar for the Qatari riyal before summer. There’s a strong possibility the United Arab Emirates may also switch to its own currency.

As the Kish bourse picks up momentum, increasing amounts of oil and gas trading will happen in a basket of currencies - and increasingly the US dollar will lose its paramount status. Some Middle East analysts expect the Persian Gulf petro-monarchies to end their dollar currency peg sooner rather than later - some say as early as next summer, as their black gold will increasingly not be traded in dollars. Iranian economist Hamid Varzi stresses that the "psychological effect" of Iran’s move away from the US dollar is "encouraging others to follow suit". {....this is already well underway, and will likely accelerate from 2008 to 2010}

Iranian officials have always maintained that Washington has threatened to disrupt the country's oil exchange - via an online virus, attempted regime change or even through a unilateral pre-emptive nuclear strike. Certainly some analysts argue that the strength of the US dollar, like the strength of the British pound before that, is a reflection of, and is maintained by, those countries' military strength (see Why Iran's oil bourse can't break the buck, Asia Times Online, March 10, 2006).

On the other hand, the possible success of the exchange may be crucial to signal the US’s waning power in a world evolving towards multipolarity. The Saudis and the Persian Gulf petro-monarchies have already decided to reduce their US dollar holdings. Washington, sooner or later, may have to pay for its oil and gas imports in euros. {...I seriosuly doubt that the dollar will be locked out altogether in the near to intermediate term, but anyway...}

No wonder Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez is so demonized by Washington as he repeats that the empire of the dollar is falling. Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal conceded during the latest OPEC summit in Riyadh that the dollar would collapse if OPEC decided to switch to euros or a basket of currencies. During a closed meeting - with the microphones on, by mistake - Prince Saud said: "My feeling is that the mere mention that OPEC countries are studying the issue of the dollar is itself going to have an impact that endangers the interests of the countries. There will be journalists who will seize on this point and we don't want the dollar to collapse instead of doing something good for OPEC."

The trillion-dollar question is if, and when, most European and Asian oil importers may stampede towards the Iranian oil bourse. OPEC members as well as oil producers from the Caspian may be inevitably seduced by the advantages of selling at Kish - with no dreaded middlemen. Europeans, Chinese and Japanese will also see benefits if they can buy oil with euros, yen or even yuan - they won’t need US dollars – and the same applies to their central banks.

It would take only a few major oil exporters to switch from the dollar to the euro - or the yen - to fatally bomb the petrodollar mothership. Venezuela, Norway and Russia are all ready to say goodbye to the petrodollar. France officially supports a stronger role for the euro in international oil trade.

It may be a long way away, but ultimately the emergence of a new oil marker in euros in Kish will lead the way to the petroeuro global oil trade. The European Union imports much more oil from OPEC than the US, and 45% of Middle East imports also come from the EU.

The symbolism of the Iranian oil bourse is stark; it shows that the flight from the US dollar is irreversible - and so, sooner rather than later, is diminution of Washington's capacity to launch wars on credit. But at this early stage in the game, only one thing is certain: the empire will strike back.

...as they say, history has a tendency to repeat itself...too bad the average American (including most of Congress), does not have much understanding of the history of the Middle East over the past 100 years since their oil was first discovered.

My concern? A US blockade of Iran could interrupt their oil exports, and $200 per barrel could shortly thereafter be considered cheap oil. Of course such US belligerency might very well cause the Chinese to consider unloading a few hundred billion of their US treasuries as a sign of their displeasure...and that's when the slowly unfolding dollar crisis becomes front page news...not to mention that Venezuela has threatened to stop shipping oil to the US if we attack Iran. It could be a major panic here, not to mention gasoline shortages within a month of any such overt hostilities.

Bottomline: A US Naval blockade of Iran would be bad news for the whole world, but with a potentially devestating outcome for the highly-indebted US gov't, and profoundly oil-addicted US citizen.
Last edited by Petrodollar on Fri 27 Jun 2008, 21:40:05, edited 9 times in total.
User avatar
Petrodollar
Coal
Coal
 
Posts: 406
Joined: Tue 19 Jul 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Maryland
Top

Re: House Resolution Calls for Naval Blockade against Iran

Unread postby Homesteader » Fri 27 Jun 2008, 12:04:48

Great summary Petrodollar.
"The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to a close. In its place we are entering a period of consequences…"
Sir Winston Churchill

Beliefs are what people fall back on when the facts make them uncomfortable.
User avatar
Homesteader
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1856
Joined: Thu 12 Apr 2007, 03:00:00
Location: Economic Nomad

New Congressional Resolution Declares War with Iran

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Fri 27 Jun 2008, 13:21:47

<i>This is so big, I had to come back to give you this one.

Historically, naval blockades have always been recognized as an act of war.</i>

A House resolution effectively requiring a naval blockade on Iran seems fast tracked for passage, gaining co-sponsors at a remarkable speed, but experts say the measures called for in the resolutions amount to an act of war.

H.CON.RES 362 calls on the president to stop all shipments of refined petroleum products from reaching Iran. It also "demands" that the President impose "stringent inspection requirements on all persons, vehicles, ships, planes, trains and cargo entering or departing Iran."

Analysts say that this would require a US naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz.

Since its introduction on May 22 the resolution has attracted 205 cosponsors.

In the Senate, a sister resolution S. RES 580 has gained cosponsors rapidly. The Senate measure was introduced by Indiana Democrat Evan Bayh on June 2. It has now accrued 26 cosponsors.

These resolutions could severely escalate US-Iran tensions, experts say. Recalling the perception of the naval blockade of Cuba during the Cuban Missile Crisis, <b>and the international norms classifying a naval blockade an act of war</b>, critics argue endorsement of these bills would signal US intentions of war with Iran.

link


The US military has constructed four advanced bases 20 miles from Iraq's border with Iran, a senior Iraqi police officer has announced.

The bases, equipped with missile launch pads, have been set up over the past four months on the Iraq-Iran border; Iraqi al-Noor newspaper quoted the official as saying.

He added that one of the bases has been located 30 km (20 miles) from the first border town with Iran and houses remote-controlled launching pads as well as radar systems similar to ones used in Kuwait during the first Persian Gulf war.

link
"For my part, whatever anguish of spirit it may cost, I am willing to know the whole truth; to know the worst and provide for it." - Patrick Henry

The level of injustice and wrong you endure is directly determined by how much you quietly submit to. Even to the point of extinction.
User avatar
Cid_Yama
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 7169
Joined: Sun 27 May 2007, 03:00:00
Location: The Post Peak Oil Historian

Re: New Congressional Resolution Declares War with Iran

Unread postby jlw61 » Fri 27 Jun 2008, 13:48:35

I'm too close to the water table to build a bomb shelter. Think I'll have to look at a mounded setup.

Am I worried about Iran? Hell no. However, this thing could very easily get out of control, and there are plenty of nukes elsewhere. What a lovely frackin' government we've gotten ourselves into.
When somebody makes a statement you don't understand, don't tell him he's crazy. Ask him what he means. -- Otto Harkaman, Space Viking
User avatar
jlw61
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 623
Joined: Mon 03 Sep 2007, 03:00:00
Location: Sunny Virginia, USA

Re: New Congressional Resolution Declares War with Iran

Unread postby Cashmere » Fri 27 Jun 2008, 13:53:08

Old News Cid, but good to see you.

OLD NEWS
Massive Human Dieoff <b>must</b> occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where <b>you</b> live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
User avatar
Cashmere
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1882
Joined: Thu 27 Mar 2008, 03:00:00

Re: House Resolution Calls for Naval Blockade against Iran

Unread postby Buggy » Fri 27 Jun 2008, 13:53:27

+1 on a good summary by Petrodollar
Last edited by Buggy on Fri 27 Jun 2008, 14:15:17, edited 1 time in total.
Buggy
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 284
Joined: Mon 23 Jun 2008, 03:00:00

Re: New Congressional Resolution Declares War with Iran

Unread postby Fishman » Fri 27 Jun 2008, 13:53:56

Slight correction Cid,
A "Democraticly controlled" House resolution.

Tunes from the future "but we didn't give any authority for him to do that...", or " we were lead astray..." or " I voted for the blockade before I voted against the blockade"

Important rule for Republicans, never go to war with Democrates on your side, they turn chickens**t on you if things don't go as expected.
User avatar
Fishman
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2137
Joined: Thu 11 Aug 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Carolina de Norte

Re: House Resolution Calls for Naval Blockade against Iran

Unread postby roccman » Fri 27 Jun 2008, 14:00:22

PO = global economic collapse and die off

Bomb Iran = global economic collapse and die off

The only difference is timing.

Clearly YOU would want one to occur on YOUR terms to maximize YOUR survival chances.

Got bunker? I do...
"There must be a bogeyman; there always is, and it cannot be something as esoteric as "resource depletion." You can't go to war with that." Emersonbiggins
User avatar
roccman
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 4065
Joined: Fri 27 Apr 2007, 03:00:00
Location: The Great Sonoran Desert

Re: House Resolution Calls for Naval Blockade against Iran

Unread postby bkwillia » Fri 27 Jun 2008, 17:23:59

Im 1000 miles from a major city, do I need a bunker at all?
User avatar
bkwillia
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 68
Joined: Mon 20 Aug 2007, 03:00:00

Re: House Resolution Calls for Naval Blockade against Iran

Unread postby bodigami » Fri 27 Jun 2008, 18:21:17

Israel (and USA, and all countries of the world) should be responsible using the SAME ETHICAL STANDARDS. A murderer is a murderer everywhere; they're no "heroes".

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SILENTTODD', 'I')ran has never deliberately attacked an American Naval vessel with the intent of murdering all on board as Israel has.

U.S.S. LIBERTY

How quickly our representatives forget.


With "friends" like that who needs enemies?
bodigami
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 1921
Joined: Wed 26 Jul 2006, 03:00:00
Top

Re: House Resolution Calls for Naval Blockade against Iran

Unread postby yull » Fri 27 Jun 2008, 18:55:05

That's an excellent post Petrodollar, I learnt a lot from that.

Do you think that the US really will attack Iran? Will it just be a military strike by Israel on it's nuclear facilities or a wider invasion with the US joining in? What would the US have to gain by attacking or blockading Iran and what would China and Russia make of it? How might they react. And Europe.

Anyone can answer as well..

I have always been sceptical of an attack on Iran but recent events are changing my mind.
User avatar
yull
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 124
Joined: Thu 03 Jun 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Great Britain

Re: House Resolution Calls for Naval Blockade against Iran

Unread postby DocHoliday » Fri 27 Jun 2008, 20:16:25

I am new to the forum but have been reading it for weeks.

This is a particularly disturbing Bill.

If you think Oil is expensive now, wait till this blockade goes into affect. Can you say $200+ for a barrel of oil? This just blows me away to think that we are even considering doing something like this.

Why does the U.S. Govenment seem to think we are a Global Police force? We are already approaching 1 trillion dollar bill for the Irag and Afgahnstan war. My Social Security Retirement is already probably gone because of it. And now we are going to fight a 3 front war? With what Military? We already don't have enough soliders to go much longer with the mess we are in.

I know people from Iran. They are good people just like us. Most of their people don't want the current regime. If there is any hope of another more moderate group taking control in Iran, then this will extinguish all hope of them coming to power and just make America more hated in the region.

I am not anti-Israel, but enough is enough.
User avatar
DocHoliday
Wood
Wood
 
Posts: 1
Joined: Fri 27 Jun 2008, 03:00:00

Re: House Resolution Calls for Naval Blockade against Iran

Unread postby bodigami » Fri 27 Jun 2008, 21:58:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DocHoliday', 'I') am new to the forum but have been reading it for weeks.

This is a particularly disturbing Bill.

If you think Oil is expensive now, wait till this blockade goes into affect. Can you say $200+ for a barrel of oil? This just blows me away to think that we are even considering doing something like this.

Why does the U.S. Govenment seem to think we are a Global Police force? We are already approaching 1 trillion dollar bill for the Irag and Afgahnstan war. My Social Security Retirement is already probably gone because of it. And now we are going to fight a 3 front war? With what Military? We already don't have enough soliders to go much longer with the mess we are in.

I know people from Iran. They are good people just like us. Most of their people don't want the current regime. If there is any hope of another more moderate group taking control in Iran, then this will extinguish all hope of them coming to power and just make America more hated in the region.

I am not anti-Israel, but enough is enough.


I mostly agree.

(honest, peaceful and local) pro-Democracy groups in Iran basically agree on this: a war with Iran will make Democracy LESS PROBABLE... it will be a war 4 oil! which will actually make democracy (and peace) DIE in Iran. it will fuel (pun intended) the hatred against USA in Iran's extreme muslims and racists.
bodigami
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 1921
Joined: Wed 26 Jul 2006, 03:00:00
Top

Re: House Resolution Calls for Naval Blockade against Iran

Unread postby idiom » Sat 28 Jun 2008, 02:23:55

A war with Iran will leave America in control of a huge swathe of the Middle East running from Afghanistan to Iraq.

With that size Islamic population under American occupation, with that amount of Oil under Ameircan control, the balance of global power destabilse quickly.
User avatar
idiom
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 672
Joined: Mon 23 Aug 2004, 03:00:00
Location: New Zealand

Re: House Resolution Calls for Naval Blockade against Iran

Unread postby wisconsin_cur » Sat 28 Jun 2008, 02:43:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('idiom', 'A') war with Iran will leave America in control of a huge swathe of the Middle East running from Afghanistan to Iraq.

With that size Islamic population under American occupation, with that amount of Oil under Ameircan control, the balance of global power destabilse quickly.


With supply lines that long and a front that large it leaves the United States with nothing... the balance of power becomes radically re-oriented as the United States returns to the Western Hemisphere to lick its wounds.
http://www.thenewfederalistpapers.com
User avatar
wisconsin_cur
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 4576
Joined: Thu 10 May 2007, 03:00:00
Location: 45 degrees North. 883 feet above sealevel.
Top

Re: House Resolution Calls for Naval Blockade against Iran

Unread postby idiom » Sat 28 Jun 2008, 03:28:02

It is a serious amount of land to police. It leave America with pretty much only a nuclear option to respond to anything else. (Taiwan, Korean border, Russian expansion...)
User avatar
idiom
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 672
Joined: Mon 23 Aug 2004, 03:00:00
Location: New Zealand

Re: House Resolution Calls for Naval Blockade against Iran

Unread postby yull » Sat 28 Jun 2008, 04:52:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('idiom', 'A') war with Iran will leave America in control of a huge swathe of the Middle East running from Afghanistan to Iraq.

With that size Islamic population under American occupation, with that amount of Oil under Ameircan control, the balance of global power destabilse quickly.


If this happens the US must know that the Russians and particularly the Chinese aren't just going to sit back. China gets most of it's oil from the Mid East and it's in Russia's backyard, and they have a lot of connections too with the Mid East countries. And Europe aswell gets most of it's oil from the region, unless they join up with the US.

The only thing I can see the US gaining out of this situation is World War III and probable nuclear war, and then everybody loses. Unless the American leaders really are that insane, which wouldn't surprise me.
User avatar
yull
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 124
Joined: Thu 03 Jun 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Great Britain
Top

Re: House Resolution Calls for Naval Blockade against Iran

Unread postby ozkrenske » Sat 28 Jun 2008, 05:32:33

Well Yull,

There has been more or less constant speculation of a US attack on Iran from about one minute after it's being declared a member of the Axis of Evil, back in 2002. I think it is a Political, Military and Economic Non starter to any slightly rational government.

I personally don't think any form of attack is possible at the moment without completely breaking the US military. Any attempt to occupy and control will see a Iraq times 6, but with lot's of nice mountainous terrain as well. If someone tries to carry out an airstrike. Well sorry airstrikes are fully fledged acts of war, not iffy like blockades, they are war itself. As such airstrikes will almost certainly ramp up very quickly into full fledged mass warfare. You know the million man army crossing the border kind. Iran does have this massive demographic overpopulation of 16-25 year olds that it more or less can not employ or feed well, so losing a few million while dragging the great satan down, will be sad but not the worst thing that could happen. Iran did partake of a 6 year WW1 style conflict in the 80's that saw millions die. Their morale did not crack, they were effectively embargoed into peace. The US is not going to deal with 5-10 000 casualties well.

The cost effects of the war will be massive. how about a trillion or two supplementary for the the first month or so sound. The US dollar will almost collapse from that alone. Gold could be at 2000 an ounce in a day.

Now, if somehow George does manage to start a war, I doubt he will survive (possibly literally, he will have hndreds of well trained martyrs relatives gunning for him.) politically, a impeachmant could well be possible. There is absolutely no way he is going to manage a UN resolution this time, to justify an attack. In fact, I am almost certain that large chunks of the world will declare him a war criminal, possibly very legitimately. That rules out travel as an Ex president, as many countries will be required by treaty to arrest him for extradition. Technically that may be a legal requirement in the US too, of course one that will be ignored by the government.

If a war does somehow kick off, Iran will take careful note of where the attacks are based from because hosting a offensive base in wartime is pretty well equivalent to taking part. So large numbers of tactical rockets are going to start to reign down on persian gulf nations probably shutting in and disrupting 3 times the current oil exports of Iran. 10-15 million barrels a day off the market will see 300 + a barrel oil in a trading session. Well outside of the US it will, because the US would have trouble keeping up with 20% per day limits on trade. Massive bulk purchasing and hording will start on the first day, and fuel could be over 6 dollars a gallon in the US in about two days. It would then climb relentlessely to ten and possibly even higher if the war continues beyond a week or two.

Even with the US airstrike approach things are a little iffy for the US airforce, they are pretty stretched right now. Airdominance is not a foregone conclusion either. The US airforce has serious issues with it's F15's, and will have some seriously modern anti aircraft defences to take on as well as a second string airforce. So maybe the US could see some seriously damaged local airbases (from rocket attack, or even being ordered out by locals) and therefore a ground war with lessened air support, and even possible firepower equality. Not a situation the US has had for a very long time, in fact I think, WW1, early Pacific theatre WW2 and early Korean War are the examples. They are also very damaging examples.

Anyone who wants a war in Iran (with Iraq support running at 20 odd %) is in the serious minority in the US and after the losses mount, it is safe to say the party of the president that starts the war is dead politically for a long time. It may even be replaced by a new party.

Now there are other complications as well. Venezuela will apparently stop sales to the US, as could other OPEC nations. China and Russia will both be very miffed to say the least. What if China flags some tankers and sends them in (Just like the US did in the 80's.), will the US sink neutral vessels? Maybe Russia will stop supplies, except for those nations who sink the boot into the US. Meanwhile Russia will be rolling equipment to the border and handing it over, to be used in live fire tests.

As well the US will have a lot of indirect warfare on their hands. Truck bombs in US cities, mortar attacks on US refineries, US flagged ships being assaulted all over the world, US airliners being shot up everywhere. 911 may be a fore taste of what a war carried out by a not insignificant nation could do. It is potentially a very fearful scenario. Face it, I can imagine some pretty horrible crap to do asymetrically and I don't think about it full time. I am sure that the Iranian General Staff has several bright young people working on exactly that stuff, with potentially thousands of available martyrs.

I really don't see a US attack, unless the US can guarantee the stopping of several thousand ballistic missiles from crossing the gulf to the local governments, at the very least.
User avatar
ozkrenske
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 221
Joined: Wed 27 Oct 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Queensland, Australia

PreviousNext

Return to North America Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests