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THE Gas Rationing Thread (merged)

How to save energy through both societal and individual actions.

Re: Conservation through voluntary rationing

Unread postby Revi » Mon 18 Jun 2007, 13:16:53

I think it's a great idea to start to ration now, as long as it's done in a fair way. Unfortunately, I don't know what people are going to do with the tanks that they are driving around now. It was the poor who ended up with the gas pigs in the 70's and early 80's. I suppose that they will end up with all those old Suburbans too. It's already happening.
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Re: Conservation through voluntary rationing

Unread postby Revi » Mon 18 Jun 2007, 13:17:32

I think it's a great idea to start to ration now, as long as it's done in a fair way. Unfortunately, I don't know what people are going to do with the tanks that they are driving around now. It was the poor who ended up with the gas pigs in the 70's and early 80's. I suppose that they will end up with all those old Suburbans too. It's already happening.
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Re: Conservation through voluntary rationing

Unread postby Tyler_JC » Mon 18 Jun 2007, 13:25:51

People will waste time and gasoline driving around to find enough gas stations.

Or they will waste gasoline by going to the gas station every X days instead of filling all the way up and waiting till the needle hits the E.

It makes far more sense to raise CAFE standard to 40 MPG by 2015.

Raise gasoline taxes so that conservation doesn't actually make the product cheaper via reduced demand.

Use the extra money to fund renewable energy projects and energy storage.

Next step, convert the ICE cars to hybrid plug in electrics.
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Re: Conservation through voluntary rationing

Unread postby Nearinempty » Mon 18 Jun 2007, 15:54:20

Tyler_JC-
Your first comment suggests I wasn’t clear enough when I said “Drivers wanting/needing more could move to a different pump…” The intent was they would be able to accomplish this at the same gas station they got their initial fifteen gallons (assuming it had more than one pump). Alternatively, they could stay at the original pump and “go inside the gas station to pay cash (in advance) for up to another 15 gallons.”
In either case the gas used is negligible, but the additional time and effort could be enough to be a disincentive.
Your second comment is where I envision more of the same psychology coming into play. Unless a driver had a desire to get on intimate terms with his gas station attendant, he / she might be expected to do what it took to avoid making a return visit any sooner than necessary: conserve gasoline. It appears that most folks are more strongly motivated by the gas gauge than the pump price, so if limiting demand is the goal, focus their thought on what’s left in their tank.
Your remaining points would be fully adequate if the primary goal was to limit / reduce gasoline consumption. We definitely need to do that, but for the sake of the environment it may be crucial to also stimulate consumer interest in using cleaner biofuels as quickly as possible. This might even eliminate the need for subsidies, as private investment would clearly see the potential. That’s why I would exempt them from pump limits.
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Re: Conservation through voluntary rationing

Unread postby Tanada » Mon 18 Jun 2007, 18:03:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nearinempty', 'T')yler_JC-
Your first comment suggests I wasn’t clear enough when I said “Drivers wanting/needing more could move to a different pump…” The intent was they would be able to accomplish this at the same gas station they got their initial fifteen gallons (assuming it had more than one pump). Alternatively, they could stay at the original pump and “go inside the gas station to pay cash (in advance) for up to another 15 gallons.”
In either case the gas used is negligible, but the additional time and effort could be enough to be a disincentive.


Well heck, if THATS your goal Visa and Mastercard already limit purchases to $50.00 and $75.00 per gas transaction, at $3.00 per gallon that is 16.66 and 25 gallons respectively. Simply order the card issuers to limit purchases to $40.00 per fillup for all fuels and your goal is acheived even if the price declines somewhat.
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To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: Conservation through voluntary rationing

Unread postby Tyler_JC » Mon 18 Jun 2007, 18:53:09

But doesn't anyone see this as ridiculous?

It's like the 2 beer limit at baseball games.

What stops me from buying another 2 beers at the refreshment stand, 50 yards away?

Simply putting a rather small convenience barrier between me and my consumption is not going to work.

A tax scheme is much more effective and requires absolutely no additionally infrastructure/annoyance on the part of anyone.

Just lower the Medicare tax and raise the gas tax. Any extra revenue can be siphoned off for wind power projects and renewable energy subsidies.
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Re: Conservation through voluntary rationing

Unread postby Nearinempty » Mon 18 Jun 2007, 19:00:48

Tanada-
Good as far as it goes, but too many drivers would simply use the card a second time at the same pump to readily fill their tank. It needs to be a more complex, time consuming process to be a sufficient disincentive. Those that REALLY need or want more could still get it, but hopefully they’d be in the minority.
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Re: Conservation through voluntary rationing

Unread postby Nearinempty » Mon 18 Jun 2007, 20:02:08

Tyler_JC-
Makes ‘ya wonder why they even still have a two beer limit, unless… enough spectators are there to actually watch the game and are satisfied with that amount.
Tanada is close to right about the existing credit card dollar limit being sufficient dissuasion. A report from another source told of a Grand Rapids gas station owner commenting on the card limit:
She estimated she loses about 100 gallons a day from drivers who
normally would fill their tanks, but instead are leaving after the first card transaction.
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THE Gas Rationing Thread

Unread postby Denny » Sat 19 Apr 2008, 23:04:56

Presently, the United States consumes four gallons of gasoline daily per household. Back in World War II, gasoline was rationed at 3 gallons per week. Let's say the average household today has two drivers, so if rationing was imposed at that level, it would end up being 6 gallons per week, or just under 1 gallon per average day. Of course there would have to be exemptions for those whose jobs necessarily involve driving, like doctors and farmers, so lets just say by a rationing strategy equivalent to WW2 we could reduce gasoline consumption by three-quarters.
In turn, a barrel of oil produces typically 19 gallons of gasoline, so by this strategy, if one works out the numbers, a drastic oil consumption figure emerges. I realize that barrel of oil is also producing everything else from diesel fuel to asphalt. However, if one directly took 100 million households multiplied by 3 gallons per day potential reduction, that would be 7.5 million barrels per day. Not sure how the refineries would adapt to a whole new balance. Maybe with that kind of reduction, the USA could get by with just North American oil. (That is USA plus Canada and Mexico.)

While WW2 was a time of sacrifice, people got by, used all kinds of strategies to move around, from car pools to public transit and biking, but life went on. My late father used to bike to work, 8 miles, so he could save gas for the weekend. Despite the sacrifices in fuel and food use, the fact is Americans lived better than anyone else in the world at that time, even though at war.
This rationing idea would also lead to a whole lot of creative alternatives being developed, both recycled old ideas and many new ones. Also, these days, many cars get far better mileage than the typical Chevs and Fords of the WW2 era. They got about 21 mpg. (I know, I have a '41 Chev.)
The four gallons per day figure comes from How Stuff Works
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Re: Lets say a national emergency resulted in gas rationing

Unread postby FireJack » Sun 20 Apr 2008, 00:10:54

I'm pretty sure once rationing starts there will be nothing but bitter complaints and riots etc. Lots of people do things to adapt as the rationing continues to get worse, and worse, and worse, then things like rebuilding roads or plowing them in the winter becomes harder and power becomes intermittent and it just keeps getting worse.

I bet once we hit the bottom after the die off things will be better for a lot of people than they were with all that gas. Until some thing like as ice age comes along and we join the extinction list but that will be a while.
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Re: Lets say a national emergency resulted in gas rationing

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 20 Apr 2008, 01:04:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FireJack', ' ')once rationing starts...

The US will ration by price.

As the price of gas goes higher and higher, people will systematically reduce their use of oil in order to save money.
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Re: Lets say a national emergency resulted in gas rationing

Unread postby BigTex » Sun 20 Apr 2008, 02:04:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FireJack', ' ')once rationing starts...

The US will ration by price.
As the price of gas goes higher and higher, people will systematically reduce their use of oil in order to save money

This would happen in a formal rationing system as well.
A black market would spring up overnight, and a new market price of gas would emerge within this market.
It would be sort of like Prohibition, especially considering the ethanol content of gasoline.
Rationing is rarely a solution to anything, other than to make the black market traders rich.
Better to let the market push prices to $6.00-$12.00 a gallon and just let people suffer, with the poor suffering the most, of course. After all, this IS America. If they want to get there bad enough, they can walk or ride their bikes. And if they get hungry, they can eat cake.
:)
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Re: Lets say a national emergency resulted in gas rationing

Unread postby HEADER_RACK » Sun 20 Apr 2008, 02:20:55

When they start rationing thats my que to bug out. It will only go down hill from there quickly.
Rationing won't work and letting the market handle it won't work either. Damned if we do, Damed if we don't. We are in a NO WIN situation!
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Re: Lets say a national emergency resulted in gas rationing

Unread postby kjmclark » Sun 20 Apr 2008, 09:28:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 'T')he US will ration by price.
As the price of gas goes higher and higher, people will systematically reduce their use of oil in order to save money

Yeah, since we're already rationing by price. Think of it as a natural experiment. Our hypothesis is that higher prices will make people systematically reduce consumption to save money and that rationing won't be needed. So far, you could argue that either the results aren't yet conclusive, the hypothesis is correct but the effect is weak, or the hypothesis is wrong and people will consume about as much as before and mostly reduce spending on other things.
Barring a national emergency, we'll probably just keep increasing prices until all Hell breaks loose. That would have to be quite a national emergency.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Denny', 'A')lso, these days, many cars get far better mileage than the typical Chevs and Fords of the WW2 era. They got about 21 mpg. (I know, I have a '41 Chev.)

That's funny! The US average new car/truck fuel economy is 20mpg!
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Re: Lets say a national emergency resulted in gas rationing

Unread postby Cloud9 » Sun 20 Apr 2008, 09:36:24

For most working class people gas consumption is inelastic. They have no other means to get to work. They will be pushed to the breaking point before they switch to an alternative means of transportation. In the Great Depression, people literally drove to the poor house.
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Re: Lets say a national emergency resulted in gas rationing

Unread postby jlw61 » Sun 20 Apr 2008, 09:44:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FireJack', ' ')once rationing starts...

The US will ration by price.
As the price of gas goes higher and higher, people will systematically reduce their use of oil in order to save money

This would happen in a formal rationing system as well.
A black market would spring up overnight, and a new market price of gas would emerge within this market.
It would be sort of like Prohibition, especially considering the ethanol content of gasoline.
Rationing is rarely a solution to anything, other than to make the black market traders rich.
Better to let the market push prices to $6.00-$12.00 a gallon and just let people suffer, with the poor suffering the most, of course. After all, this IS America. If they want to get there bad enough, they can walk or ride their bikes. And if they get hungry, they can eat cake.

While I agree it is better to let the market control the rationing process, we are talking about a government that seldom makes the right choice. Since congressmen have to get reelected and they don't like being strung up by the masses, rationing will be the result. Will it last? I don't know. I do know it will create a whole new class of crime and criminals and there will be a lot more crime than if they simply let the price do what it does.

IF they did the right thing and not put in rationing, people would then have to make choices on where and how to live. Markets would shatter and rebuild. Banks would close and new ones reopen. Mortgages might be sold at fire-sale prices, but it wouldn't be like the depression where they can then call the loan due (unless state laws change). This time around it would be somewhat different as there are laws protecting the home owner from the past predatory practices.

Many cars would be sold outright for whatever could be gotten or repossessed by the dealers as people who could not afford gas would not want the pay the yearly property taxes on a useless vehicle. Community vans would appear.
Big box stores would be threatened and the local grocer would start making a comeback. Laws would have to be relaxed or else inspectors would just not come around, depends on how much fuel the local government decided to keep for itself for it's hoard of useless services.

Life would begin to change very quickly and the first winter would be the toughest. Unless enough fuel is maintained for the electrical system, water and heating systems would fail. In the north, this would be disaster, in the south it would be difficult. Multi-family housing would reappear and the survivors would all have gardens the next year.
A lot of houses would be empty within three years as some would pass, others leave and many change their living arrangements and adjust. Crime would spike for a while, but I suspect more people would begin to carry protection, especially in the states that allow conceal carry.

The ride is nearly over unless some set of cornucopian miracles of technology pop up (or it really is a big conspiracy by the current administration :-D ).
The key to how it plays out will not rest in the hands of people or corporations; it will rest in the hands of governments. I just hope that most of the US has the patience and intelligence to work together and ride it through so that we can get the greatest number of people through the hard times with the least amount of hardship and bloodshed.
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Re: Lets say a national emergency resulted in gas rationing

Unread postby purdum » Sun 20 Apr 2008, 09:55:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Denny', 'P')resently, the United States consumes four gallons of gasoline daily per household. Back in World War II, gasoline was rationed at 3 gallons per week. Let's say the average household today has two drivers, so if rationing was imposed at that level, it would end up being 6 gallons per week, or just under 1 gallon per average day. Of course there would have to be exemptions for those whose jobs necessarily involve driving, like doctors and farmers, so lets just say by a rationing strategy equivalent to WW2 we could reduce gasoline consumption by three-quarters.

Does anyone have any data on what the average U.S. daily gas consumption per household was before rationing, say, 1941? Since it wasn't until after WW2 that the interstates and sprawling suburbs started showing up, I would think gas consumption was quite a bit lower to begin with. If one were to devise a rationing strategy equivalent to WW2 by using the same percentage reduction, then it still might be a couple of gallons per person per day. Not counting what you bought on the black market, of course.
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Re: Lets say a national emergency resulted in gas rationing

Unread postby vision-master » Sun 20 Apr 2008, 09:56:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FireJack', ' ')once rationing starts...

The US will ration by price.
As the price of gas goes higher and higher, people will systematically reduce their use of oil in order to save money

This would happen in a formal rationing system as well.
A black market would spring up overnight, and a new market price of gas would emerge within this market.
It would be sort of like Prohibition, especially considering the ethanol content of gasoline.
Rationing is rarely a solution to anything, other than to make the black market traders rich.
Better to let the market push prices to $6.00-$12.00 a gallon and just let people suffer, with the poor suffering the most, of course. After all, this IS America. If they want to get there bad enough, they can walk or ride their bikes. And if they get hungry, they can eat cake.

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Re: Lets say a national emergency resulted in gas rationing

Unread postby Homesteader » Sun 20 Apr 2008, 10:43:29

The people would expect the rationing to have an endpoint after which they could expect life to go back to normal. Hahahahahaha!

The story tptb come with would make interesting reading.
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Re: Lets say a national emergency resulted in gas rationing

Unread postby Heineken » Sun 20 Apr 2008, 10:48:38

The US and its people are so different today from the WWII era that any comparisons in how we might perform under rationing are dubious.

Remember, the US economy depends absolutely on the suburban build-out. That is the idiotic system we've invested EVERYTHING in. As Kunstler notes, we can't change how we're organized without enormous pain. We probably don't even have the energy and materials and MONEY to do it.

Also, unlike during the early 20th century, Americans today are mostly soft, intolerant of change, unwilling to sacrifice. Many are simply unable to sacrifice---think jobs like truck drivers, real estate agents, pizza cooks at Dominoes. There are millions and millions of jobs like that. Fuel rationing would end their livelihoods.

Gas rationing would result in a Greater Depression.

(Homesteader makes a good point in the previous post, too. WWII had a clear end in sight. Rationing wouldn't. "Endless Emergency.")
Last edited by Heineken on Sun 20 Apr 2008, 10:52:02, edited 1 time in total.
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