by kjmclark » Sun 20 Apr 2008, 09:28:56
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 'T')he US will ration by price.
As the price of gas goes higher and higher, people will systematically reduce their use of oil in order to save money
Yeah, since we're already rationing by price. Think of it as a natural experiment. Our hypothesis is that higher prices will make people systematically reduce consumption to save money and that rationing won't be needed. So far, you could argue that either the results aren't yet conclusive, the hypothesis is correct but the effect is weak, or the hypothesis is wrong and people will consume about as much as before and mostly reduce spending on other things.
Barring a national emergency, we'll probably just keep increasing prices until all Hell breaks loose. That would have to be quite a national emergency.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Denny', 'A')lso, these days, many cars get far better mileage than the typical Chevs and Fords of the WW2 era. They got about 21 mpg. (I know, I have a '41 Chev.)
That's funny! The US average new car/truck fuel economy is
20mpg!
by jlw61 » Sun 20 Apr 2008, 09:44:45
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FireJack', ' ')once rationing starts...
The US will ration by price.
As the price of gas goes higher and higher, people will systematically reduce their use of oil in order to save money
This would happen in a formal rationing system as well.
A black market would spring up overnight, and a new market price of gas would emerge within this market.
It would be sort of like Prohibition, especially considering the ethanol content of gasoline.
Rationing is rarely a solution to anything, other than to make the black market traders rich.
Better to let the market push prices to $6.00-$12.00 a gallon and just let people suffer, with the poor suffering the most, of course. After all, this IS America. If they want to get there bad enough, they can walk or ride their bikes. And if they get hungry, they can eat cake.
While I agree it is better to let the market control the rationing process, we
are talking about a government that seldom makes the right choice. Since congressmen have to get reelected and they don't like being strung up by the masses, rationing will be the result. Will it last? I don't know. I do know it will create a whole new class of crime and criminals and there will be a lot more crime than if they simply let the price do what it does.
IF they did the right thing and not put in rationing, people would then have to make choices on where and how to live. Markets would shatter and rebuild. Banks would close and new ones reopen. Mortgages might be sold at fire-sale prices, but it wouldn't be like the depression where they can then call the loan due (unless state laws change). This time around it would be somewhat different as there are laws protecting the home owner from the past predatory practices.
Many cars would be sold outright for whatever could be gotten or repossessed by the dealers as people who could not afford gas would not want the pay the yearly property taxes on a useless vehicle. Community vans would appear.
Big box stores would be threatened and the local grocer would start making a comeback. Laws would have to be relaxed or else inspectors would just not come around, depends on how much fuel the local government decided to keep for itself for it's hoard of useless services.
Life would begin to change very quickly and the first winter would be the toughest. Unless enough fuel is maintained for the electrical system, water and heating systems would fail. In the north, this would be disaster, in the south it would be difficult. Multi-family housing would reappear and the survivors would all have gardens the next year.
A lot of houses would be empty within three years as some would pass, others leave and many change their living arrangements and adjust. Crime would spike for a while, but I suspect more people would begin to carry protection, especially in the states that allow conceal carry.
The ride is nearly over unless some set of cornucopian miracles of technology pop up (or it really is a big conspiracy by the current administration

).
The key to how it plays out will not rest in the hands of people or corporations; it will rest in the hands of governments. I just hope that most of the US has the patience and intelligence to work together and ride it through so that we can get the greatest number of people through the hard times with the least amount of hardship and bloodshed.
When somebody makes a statement you don't understand, don't tell him he's crazy. Ask him what he means. -- Otto Harkaman, Space Viking
by vision-master » Sun 20 Apr 2008, 09:56:06
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FireJack', ' ')once rationing starts...
The US will ration by price.
As the price of gas goes higher and higher, people will systematically reduce their use of oil in order to save money
This would happen in a formal rationing system as well.
A black market would spring up overnight, and a new market price of gas would emerge within this market.
It would be sort of like Prohibition, especially considering the ethanol content of gasoline.
Rationing is rarely a solution to anything, other than to make the black market traders rich.
Better to let the market push prices to $6.00-$12.00 a gallon and just let people suffer, with the poor suffering the most, of course. After all, this IS America. If they want to get there bad enough, they can walk or ride their bikes. And if they get hungry, they can eat cake.
It would be all
Chiefs and no
Indians going to work.