[JohnDenver]

Monte mentioned the idea of rationing oil evenly, so I did some calculations.
What if we rationed each year's oil production evenly to all nations, on a per capita basis, so each person got the same amount of oil?
Oil production/day = 80 million barrels
Oil production/year = 29.2 billion barrels
Oil production/year/capita = 29.2/6.4 = 4.5 barrels/day/capita

Looking at the chart here: link

We see that 4.5 barrels/day/capita would put everybody at a level right between CU (Cuba) and ZA (Zaire?). Each person would receive roughly two quarts of crude oil per/day.

Naturally, the US is at the top of the list, using about 26 barrels/year/capita, or about 3 gallons of crude oil per day per person. So if you're using more than 3 gallons of gasoline a day, you're really out of control!
4.5 barrels/year/capita still isn't that bad. The countries at the bottom of the list appear to be: AF (Afghanistan) at 0.08, and UG (Uganda?) at 0.11.

Aghanistan is incredible. Each Afghani is getting by with about 2 tablespoons of crude oil per day. It's doled out in cough syrup quantities. They're already deep into post peak oil conditions.

[Kingcoal]

I believe that 70% of world oil consumption goes to transportation. I think that if you take away the cars/trucks/SUVs you could bring America well in line with the world.

I work from home, so I use very little gas, but most of my friends drive at least 60 miles a day going to and from work. Even if your car gets 30 MPG, that's two gallons already.

[Taskforce_Unity]

Yep with good goverment planning and willingness on the people side a lot can be done with equal distribution, conservation and efficiency. How to establish this policy is the problem however

[RdSnt]

Have you all been sniffing fumes?
This is simply not workable, precisely because the natual carrying capacity of the US has been artificially increased with the high use of cheap petroleum products.
You take that away and you have to also take away people. I have seen estimates from geologists and ecologists that the natural carrying capacity of the US is no more than 40 million.
What do you propose to do with the remaining 260million American citizens.

[DomusAlbion]

These "pie in the sky" discussions are really funny, if rather useless.
The powerful (i.e. the US, China, Europe, ...) will take what they need; the rest will burn cow dung.

[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RdSnt', 'H')ave you all been sniffing fumes?
This is simply not workable, precisely because the natual carrying capacity of the US has been artificially increased with the high use of cheap petroleum products.

[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DomusAlbion', 'T')hese "pie in the sky" discussions are really funny, if rather useless.

[RdSnt]

link This site doesn't factor in the energy consumed to produce foodstuffs and thus also doesn't include factors for falling pretroleum supplies.

link This site provides a good, quick survey of some of the estimates made over the past few years. You'll notice the only ones with high population estimates are those that either don't factor in energy use or assume an unlimited supply of fossil fuel.

The one fallicy that I see in high estimates that factor in energy use, by way of comparing life styles is that there is no economy of scale for agricultural production with regards to energy use. So if you say 10 billion can be sustained if we all live within the energy footprint of India, it is assumed that energy use for food production is also at India's levels. This is wrong for two main reasons. India is a net importer of food, meaning they have exceeded their carrying capacity and the food they import is primarily produced at 1st world energy levels. Second, if the whole planet where to live at the level of India you would still need to consume 1st world levels of energy to produce food simply because not all agricultural land is equally productive or evenly destributed meaning essentially you still have to ship food all over the world.

link This is older but still a good discussion.

link Pay particular attention to chapter 16.

[JohnDenver]

RdSnt,
The current population of China is about 1.3 billion vs. a US population of 300 million. China has 9% of the world's arable cropland, and the US 13%. In 2003, Chinese oil consumption was about 5 million barrels/day, and US oil consumption was 20 million barrels/day. Also, imports account for less than 2% of China's food supply. So even if we assume that 2% of China's population must die without food imports, China would still be supporting 1.274 billion people with a petroleum supply 1/4th that of the US. Thus, it would seem reasonable to believe that the US could reduce its petroleum consumption by 15 million barrels/day, quadruple its population, and still feed everbody.

[JohnDenver]

RdSnt,
By the way, which was the cite that gave a figure of 40 million for the carrying capacity of the US?

[eric_b]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'R')dSnt, The current population of China is about 1.3 billion vs. a US population of 300 million. China has 9% of the world's arable cropland, and the US 13%. In 2003, Chinese oil consumption was about 5 million barrels/day, and US oil consumption was 20 million barrels/day. Also, imports account for less than 2% of China's food supply. So even if we assume that 2% of China's population must die without food imports, China would still be supporting 1.274 billion people with a petroleum supply 1/4th that of the US. Thus, it would seem reasonable to believe that the US could reduce its petroleum consumption by 15 million barrels/day, quadruple its population, and still feed everbody.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DomusAlbion', 'T')hese "pie in the sky" discussions are really funny, if rather useless.

[NeoPeasant]

If there were 2-hour or longer gas lines by, say, august due to some supply disruption, would you be obliged to wait in them? If so, how many times a month?
Has anyone prepared to leave their car parked for a while and get around some other way?

[dhfenton]

My motorcyle gets 65 MPG, and my bicycle gas milage is infinite. I could get by just fine without gas for quite a while. My wife would have to conserve a little bit; but she could probably go without for a while too. She can always carpool with friends, and save her gas for when she really needs it. Her car gets nearly 30mpg so she can make a tank go a long way. SUV owners living 20+ miles from work would really be hurting.

[shakespear1]

I keep the bicycle in good condition, my car get 4.7 L/ 100km on diesel, and I have started to run more.

I am ready.

[mgibbons19]

We'd do alright for a while. My bikes are powered by cheeseburgers. Our corolla gets 30mpg, and my wife's work is only 2 miles away. My children's school is 1 mile away.
One trip out to China Mart in the burbs every couple weeks and we'd get by. Way better than the commuters, the super commuters, and even regular suburban folks.
I set my life up like this on purpose.

[frankthetank]

I'd wait once a month. I figure if gas was just used for commuting, that i could easily go a month on a tank (roughly 400miles).
The bikes work and i recentley biked 40miles in 2.5hrs with a long break in there.
Walking from where i live to work is not recommended (i've done it twice--roughly 3hrs because of the out of the way route).
Anyone think that a quota will be put in place for personal use? (say 5gallons a week)

[MacG]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NeoPeasant', 'I')f there were 2-hour or longer gas lines by, say, august due to some supply disruption, would you be obliged to wait in them? If so, how many times a month?
Has anyone prepared to leave their car parked for a while and get around some other way?

[Aaron]

Work at home.
Live at home.
Wanna find me?
I'm home...

[DomusAlbion]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', 'W')ork at home.
Live at home.
Wanna find me?
I'm home...