[bobcousins]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FoxV', 'd')emand destruction doesn't apply very well to gasoline as people can park their SUVs when there is a shortage/price spike, but just start using them when the situation improves (nothing is really destroyed).[snip]

[Raxozanne]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bobcousins', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FoxV', 'd')emand destruction doesn't apply very well to gasoline as people can park their SUVs when there is a shortage/price spike, but just start using them when the situation improves (nothing is really destroyed).[snip]

[khebab]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'h')e International Energy Agency said demand for crude would rise to 1.75 million barrels per day by next year, "due to a rebound from the largely temporary impact of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita and a recovery in Chinese demand," Reuters reported.

[elroy]

First they say there's nothing to worry cause we have oil for years to come, now they warn of shortages ? They should make up their mind.

[BabyPeanut]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')url=http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=aOKMW.jBYFG0&refer=home]IEA Expects 4th-Qtr Squeeze on Oil Supply After Storm (link)[/url]
Oct. 11 (Bloomberg) -- The International Energy Agency said U.S. refiners will need to operate at their limits to avoid shortages during the fourth-quarter peak in demand, raising the prospect of tapping emergency reserves again.

The agency cut its fourth-quarter estimate for non-OPEC oil supply by 900,000 barrels a day, mostly because of the U.S. hurricanes, and said production outside of the group will rise at the slowest pace in six years. Lost U.S. supply has been offset by last month's emergency oil stockpile release by IEA member- nations, the second in its 30-year history, more output from OPEC and a tempering of U.S. gasoline use.

[BabyPeanut]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')url=http://www.11alive.com/news/news_article.aspx?storyid=70386]School Trips Run Out Of Gas (link)[/url]
Reported by: Jerry Carnes 10/11/2005 6:38:02 PM
Georgia’s struggles with the supply and price of gasoline have reached into the classroom. Some school districts are canceling field trips and more on the heels of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. The storms disrupted the flow of gasoline to Georgia and may not be fixed for weeks.
In Fayette County, Lisa Pitman’s 7th grade social studies class talks about countries on the other side of the world, yet they can’t even travel to the other side of Metro Atlanta. The students were supposed to go to Fernbank Science Center in November, but the 60-mile trip there, and back was canceled.

“We know why we can’t go, and we’re fine with it, but it was a little disappointing, sure,” said Pitman.
Other students in Fayette County are facing the same disappointment, as one field trip after another is grounded due to a lack of diesel fuel.
The 6th grade class nearly lost their trip to downtown Atlanta. The trip was saved only because parents chipped in to charter a bus.
Other school districts are taking more drastic measures. In Walton County, there is only enough diesel to run the buses another six days.
Another shipment of fuel is expected soon, but for now, trips for non-competitive events have been canceled. High school band trips for sporting events have been canceled, and trips of over 60 miles for junior varsity teams are canceled.

One middle Georgia school system actually ran out of diesel, but the buses kept rolling.
“We’ve had one system that did run out, and the superintendent gave his credit card to fill up at the local store. So, it has happened,” said Bill Simpson of the Georgia Department of Education.
School districts that have not limited travel say recent shipments have given them an adequate supply of diesel, but they have a plan in case the supply begins to run low.
State officials don’t expect it to happen again, as school districts keep an eye on the fuel gauge, and some students limit their travel to maps and their imagination.

[Nearinempty]

For the sake of national security and greenhouse gas reduction it is critical that petroleum imports be lowered and the transportation system be transitioned to cleaner, sustainable fuels. Pending legislation raising vehicle fuel economy standards might help to achieve these goals, but by itself is insufficient and would likely prove to be counter-productive. Not only would new compliant vehicles take many years to replace the current fleet, but making driving less expensive would be a perverse incentive to actually increase total demand. Even now, with higher gas prices imposing the most inequitable form of rationing, most consumers still seem willing to pay almost any price to continue habits which for too many involve unconscious, avoidable waste. The resulting scarcity pricing impacts adversely throughout the economy, particularly on the poor and marginally profitable enterprises.
These failures of current and proposed methods for limiting gasoline consumption clearly demonstrate the need for a means to actually lower TOTAL domestic gasoline consumption and stimulate a transition to cleaner sustainable fuels.
How might this be achieved without coupons, a new government bureaucracy, or black markets? One way is to begin right at the gas pump and capitalize on the normal human desire to avoid unnecessary time, effort, and cost to fuelup. In our time-pressured society, busy gasoline customers might undertake unaccustomed responses to be able to both complete their transaction quickly and not have to repeat it any sooner than absolutely necessary. If the amount of gasoline they could readily obtain was limited, they might be moved to avoid wasteful driving practices and thereby reduce their personal consumption, and thus collective demand.
Using presumed technology to implement the program, each RETAIL HIGHWAY GASOLINE pump would be reprogrammed (ideally per federal legislation for uniformity) to dispense no more than 15 gallons to a given credit/debit card(s) owner in a 24 hour period. Drivers wanting/needing more could move to a different pump, or go inside the gas station to pay cash (in advance) for up to another 15 gallons. Pumps dispensing blends of biodiesel or ethanol (greater than e15),as well as marine, aviation, or private pumps would be totally exempt from limitation. Initially, straight petrodiesel pumps would also be exempt, to help expand the market for using vehicles.
All drivers without exception would face the choice of making 15 gallons do through personal conservation the job previously done by more, or else spending additional time, effort, and money to get more gas. Arguably the people who value time and convenience most highly are most likely to have higher consuming vehicles. Regardless, all would be motivated to consider their use of gasoline and the benefits of fuel-efficient and alternative vehicles- thereby stimulating the market to provide them.
To continue the stimulative effect, the initial 15 gallon limit would be annually reduced by one gallon.
There are numerous advantages and benefits to such a plan:
1) The beneficial effects following implementation would begin immediately. Gasoline prices should respond to the resulting lower demand by falling, benefiting the overall economy.
2) Impact of this program is spread equitably across the population, rather than hardest on the poor and marginally profitable businesses.
2) Consumer choice of vehicles is not directly dictated by implementation. Drivers could opt to
continue driving large / high consumption vehicles merely by taking the time and effort necessary to fuel them.
3) Overall accident rates and severity should decline in conjunction with lower average speeds.
4) Gasoline retailers would benefit through increased sales from their high profit snack area by additional cash customers.
5) The market for higher efficiency and alternative fueled vehicles would be stimulated beyond what it would otherwise be, leading to accelerated development and employment in the fuel and vehicle industries.

DISCLAIMER: The pump programming features required by the proposed method are inferred from reports of individual dealer and credit card company purchase limitations, and may require further development to actually achieve.

[Tanada]

The sheeple would riot if your scheme were put into effect almost immediatly. Far better for you to let price do the rationing, and much more likely IMO to have long term effects, anything done by new law can be undone by later law. Anything done by physical law stays done.

[Blacksmith]

"Nearempty" is right

[lateStarter]

While I appreciate the earnestness of you post, I have to ask the following questions:

1. What planet are you from?
2. What is this 'national security' thing you speak about? I thought we were beyond that! If we can't get beyond that, we are just blowing smoke...

[Madpaddy]

Rationing won't work. However, I think a 60% terror tax (call it what you like) should be imposed immediately and the revenue generated used to fund renewable energy programmes.

[Nearinempty]

late starter-
Here are your answers:
1) Third one out from the sun (the one that’s getting warmer from human-generated air pollution).
2) The national security that is endangered by heavy imports of crude oil and increasingly refined products like gasoline. It’s the same national security that has been referred to recently by former heads of CIA and military leaders in this same context. If they’re concerned, I think it should concern us all.

[Nearinempty]

Tanada-
You may be right about the rioting, if it wasn’t presented properly beforehand as a way to deal in an orderly way with the looming mismatch between demand and supply; a way which wouldn’t impose crushing costs on everyone- particularly the poor and businesses operating right near the break even point.
I don’t know if our society would long withstand the riots that THEY’d initiate when they were priced out of the ability to survive otherwise.

[Revi]

Who uses fifteen gallons a day? We don't even use that much a week! I just drove all day. 2 hours to NH and back, up and down Mount Washington and only used about 8 gallons. Our car gets 40mpg, but that's what all cars should get.

What are they going to do when it gets bad at the end of the summer? Rationing may take effect then.

[Nearinempty]

Revi-
The fifteen gallon figure is an estimate of what the driver of an existing fuel-thirsty vehicle would be likely to accept without taking the extra time and effort to get more at fuel up. This includes not only private owners but commercial vehicles that may now gas up in the morning to last the rest of the day.
If the quantity is set too small initially, it would defeat the intent of the program, as such drivers would feel compelled to take the time to get the additional increment- and probably not drive as conservatively. If your current vehicle doesn’t need fifteen gallons a day, congratulations! You’re not a significant contributor to the demand problem. Try not to gloat. Just don’t forget- the quantity limit drops a gallon each year, so plan your future vehicle acquisitions appropriately.

[lateStarter]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nearinempty', 'l')ate starter-
Here are your answers:
1) Third one out from the sun (the one that’s getting warmer from human-generated air pollution).
2) The national security that is endangered by heavy imports of crude oil and increasingly refined products like gasoline. It’s the same national security that has been referred to recently by former heads of CIA and military leaders in this same context. If they’re concerned, I think it should concern us all.

[Fredrik]

A concretely felt threat of real destitution and hunger, or (less likely) understanding the inevitability of the global energy decline, might be the only motivators strong enough to turn most people into voluntary rationers and power-downers.

What I fear is that the general public and the politicians, will simply refuse to see the irreversibility of PO, choosing some unfounded optimistic scenario instead to justify not starting necessary changes in infrastructure and economy, thus missing the window of opportunity for transition.

Every country will get slammed hard by PO. Their chances of recovery will largely depend on its people's willingness to face facts, give up their hopes for material comfort and work together for a manageable powerdown.

[Nearinempty]

late starter and Fredrik-
As the current world’s largest consumer of petroleum I think we in the U.S. have not only the obligation but the opportunity to lead the world sensibly out of the age of oil dependency, by developing both the technology and social systems necessary. Yes, history predicts our not acting until the situation becomes a real crisis (plan to draw full Social Security?). The challenge is to convince leaders and the led that this would be a crisis unlike any other in history, except possibly the meteor that did in the dinosaurs.
My proposal may not be the best or only way to confront the situation, but I believe the most dangerous course is to do nothing of a significant nature while time still remains.

[lateStarter]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nearinempty', 'l')ate starter and Fredrik-
As the current world’s largest consumer of petroleum I think we in the U.S. have not only the obligation but the opportunity to lead the world sensibly out of the age of oil dependency, by developing both the technology and social systems necessary. Yes, history predicts our not acting until the situation becomes a real crisis (plan to draw full Social Security?). The challenge is to convince leaders and the led that this would be a crisis unlike any other in history, except possibly the meteor that did in the dinosaurs.
My proposal may not be the best or only way to confront the situation, but I believe the most dangerous course is to do nothing of a significant nature while time still remains.

[Nearinempty]

Revi-
My previous response to you was incomplete. For collectors and to avoid the forced premature retirement of serviceable gasoline vehicles , the annual reduction of the quantity limit by one gallon would stop at the 5 gallon point. This would allow an orderly used car market to persist, but would definitely stimulate larger vehicle users to transition to ethanol, diesel, or other non-gasoline fuel as they replaced their current mount. You could probably keep yours ‘til the wheels fell off. Even so, this should be a group effort, so until you’re burning something cleaner and sustainable, drive like it was your blood in the tank.