[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', 'A') lot of city slickers have this idea that if they were given 1 acre of land then they can become food secure.

[TreebeardsUncle]

So, when will suburbia go into decline? Has it happened yet?
Won't this process take generations. By 2100, the lay of the land should be a bit different, n'est pas?
g

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '
')I think the cost of electricity will triple in price post PO at least.

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('the48thronin', '.')..
Can you visualize electric lines suspended over the ROW that also contain distribution grid lines.. windmills providing the energy..

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '
')I think a world wide population collapse (75% die-off) is very likely.

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '
')asphalt is derived from crude oil

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '
')I think a world wide population collapse (75% die-off) is very likely.

[the48thronin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('the48thronin', '.')..
Can you visualize electric lines suspended over the ROW that also contain distribution grid lines.. windmills providing the energy..

[cube]

I never understood why so many people have this absolutely ridiculous idea that the cities will become this giant death trap post PO because all the truck drivers couldn't deliver the 3,000 mile Caesar salad.
In a post PO world the last thing you'll die from is because of a lack of food. (if you live in the 1st world)
You're more likely to die because some thug with a gun decided to shoot you just to steal your wallet.
Sounds anti-climatic huh?

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '
')Nobody in the USA or the first world is going to die-off because of PO no matter where they live (city vs. suburb).

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '
')You're more likely to die because some thug with a gun decided to shoot you just to steal your wallet.

[cube]

To: the48thronin
With what you just said, I believe you have given up on having a serious conversation.
I think you're out of line.
My discussion with you in this thread is done.
I think you need to cool off for now.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', 'Y')ou're more likely to die because some thug with a gun decided to shoot you just to steal your wallet.

[the48thronin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', 'I') often refer to this graphic when talking about freight rail. It illustrates the total amount of railways that are double-tracked and, thus, free-flowing.

[the48thronin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '[')b]To: the48thronin
With what you just said, I believe you have given up on having a serious conversation.
I think you're out of line.
My discussion with you in this thread is done.
I think you need to cool off for now.
<snip>

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '
')If you've read about the post Soviet collapse, one thing to expect is gangs of armed thugs whose only "job skill" is being really good at hurting people.

[MarkJ]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MarkJ', 'M')any people in my region think 1 acre lots are a little too small. Most suburban building lots I've sold are 1-1/2 acres plus.

Since most suburban and rural homes are built on farmland, the lots are large, and the quality of the soil is generally quite good. There's plenty of water in the suburban and rural areas as well.

[emersonbiggins]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', 'I') often refer to this graphic when talking about freight rail. It illustrates the total amount of railways that are double-tracked and, thus, free-flowing.

[emersonbiggins]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('the48thronin', '
')Let's be honest, the railroads received billions from public funding over the years from the conrail bailout to the "rentals" of track mileage for amtrack and other "light rails" that share ROW and maintanance

[ReverseEngineer]

I posted this in the wrong thread accidentally last night. Oops.
_________________

So many variables here to consider that making any kind of real prediction will be vulnerable to attack, and some folks seem to be getting annoyed with each other. I'm going to try looking at this one from the ground up, personal history style.

For a period of my life I lived in the outer boroughs of NYC, specifically Bayside Queens. I worked in Manhattan, about 15 miles betwen me and the Job. During that period, I utilized 4 different means of transport to get me from my single family house on 1/4 acre of property to the job. Those 4 means at various times were Bus/Subway, automobile, motorcycle and bicycle. This is going back about 25 years in my life.

The property of this house couldn't support anyone in growing food, maybe you could grow some herbs to spice up food, but no real calorie content could be mustered up. So forget self supporting on food. However, its not unsustainable if you look at the value of cities and ports for trade.

All the means of transport got me to the on time, the most efficient was the motorcycle, it was fast and easy to park once I got into Manhattan. The Bus/Subway took twice as long, but the car took just about as long because the end game of looking for a place to park took a while. The bicycle fell in the middle in terms of time, it saved a lot in the end game because I rode it right up to the door of my workplace and chained it up to bike rack.

Queens was not a real "suburb" in those days in the modern sense, but you still had individual houses on separate properties, and within the confines of a 15 mile radius surrounding Manhattan Island, around 8 million people at that time COULD get to work without using cars, mass transit or even a motorcycle pretty efficiently.

To supply such a city with food, you have numerous alternatives. A main rail line can come into Grand Central Station, and worst case scenario bikers pick up food right from the railhead directly. No medium bulk transport at all for the Last Mile. Also Container ships parking at the warfs, the bikers can pick up food there also. As long as the food flows into these locations in bulk, 8 million people could do the last mile of the transport themselves.

Rural areas have an opposite problem, if they do not entirely grow their own sustenance, they don't have a population to make any profit to ship to. Everyhting tends to outflow from rural areas, not inflow. This is why in our current economy, rural areas tend to be economically deprived, few services, long drives to even a Walmart.

Suburbs hit a middle ground in this equation, population density was such that a profit could be made in transporting goods into the malls, and the distance for the suburbanites to travel as long as a car was available were not too bad. 30-60 mile travels from a suburban comunity to work are typical today. this is beyond the distance you can effectively commute on a bicycle, unless you are Lance Armstrong. Its depopulating these communities as a result, and in a typical Suburban commmunity now you see MANY "For Sale" signs. What happens though if such a community depopulates by half or more? It can revert to its origins as a rural area of course. So eventually here you get a similar distribution on the downslope of Big Oil as on the upslope, Cities functioning for Trade, Rural areas functioning for production. Suburbs just eventually turn into what they were once, rural areas. EVENTUALLY.

In both the city and the suburb situation, you have the Dislocation Period Problem. The Malls are failing economically in the suburbs, this takes away employment in those areas and makes getting any food problematic. Until you knock down the overproduction of houses, you can't make the land they sit on that agriculturally porductive. Suburban dweller are NOT going to instantly turn into Farmers, and once the services disappear (No STARBUCKS! GASP!), surburbanites won;t find them such appealing places to live anymore. So more move out, further weakneing the local economy and tax base. They can't hold up, even IF its possible to knock down the empty house next door and plant wheat on that property.

Suburbs are a construct of cheap travel. You cannot ever really make travel cheap again, even with light rail. The distances are too far for most personal transport also.

How many can move inward to the cities before those infrastructures are overwhelmed? How many can move outward to the Wilderness for survival and actually SURVIVE? Not many either way. I write all these communities off now as survivable. Cites and Rural aeas, that is what we are left with. Suburbs are ghost Towns in the making.

Reverse Engineer

[the48thronin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('the48thronin', '
')

Compare this with the amount of limited access highways already existant and usable with some adaptation by electric traction vehicles to pull existant trailers. .