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THE International Energy Agency (IEA) Thread pt 3 (merged)

Discuss research and forecasts regarding hydrocarbon depletion.
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Re: I.E.A. states we have 9 trillion barrels left

Postby hillsidedigger » Tue 16 Feb 2010, 14:33:51

If it takes 2 barrels of oil to produce 3 barrels of oil then 9 trillion becomes 3 trillion.
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Re: I.E.A. states we have 9 trillion barrels left

Postby shortonsense » Tue 16 Feb 2010, 15:40:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', 'H')oorah! 9 trillion barrels left... So when does oil production rise to 90 million barrels?
Maybe never. Just because the resource base is quite a bit larger than peaker mythology wants to recognize doesn't mean we are required to start using more of it. Certainly a shift to more efficient vehicles all by itself can drive a decent stake through the heart of demand.
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Re: I.E.A. states we have 9 trillion barrels left

Postby rangerone314 » Tue 16 Feb 2010, 15:47:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', 'M')aybe never. Just because the resource base is quite a bit larger than peaker mythology wants to recognize doesn't mean we are required to start using more of it. Certainly a shift to more efficient vehicles all by itself can drive a decent stake through the heart of demand.
I eagerly await trading in my Honda Civic with 160,000 miles for a $40,000 Volt. Now if I can just find a way to borrow that much money :P

I suppose I could convince all those people in India and China to stop buying cars, because it is really important for Americans to live in the suburbs and have bottled tapwater trucked in from 2000 miles away.
Last edited by rangerone314 on Tue 16 Feb 2010, 15:52:52, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: I.E.A. states we have 9 trillion barrels left

Postby shortonsense » Tue 16 Feb 2010, 15:47:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('energyhoggin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', 'H')oorah! 9 trillion barrels left... So when does oil production rise to 90 million barrels?
The bountiful heavy stuff doesnt flow as fast as the light good stuff, so we are going to have to adapt to high prices. We are going to have to get rid of the houses on wheels like we are driving today. The future i think will be motorcycles or possibly even mopeds.
To some extent I agree. The heavy stuff can flow as fast as we wish to invest of course, but the driving mechanism of higher prices, we've been adapting to that since the late 60's when 30+ years of cheap and stable prices disappeared and left us with the trend of ever increasing real prices of crude.

Certainly by the time global peak oil in 1979 arrived I, and many other Americans became energy aware, and in so doing helped catapult Honda and Toyota into the companies they are today.

My guess is we never see the end to that 9 trillion barrels, political correctness in deference to climate changers won't allow us to use it all.
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Re: I.E.A. states we have 9 trillion barrels left

Postby shortonsense » Tue 16 Feb 2010, 15:51:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', 'I') eagerly await my $40,000 Volt. Now if I can just find a way to borrow that much money :P
This is PO +5, according to most Doomers, you should be trying to get out of debt, not into it.

If you can't afford to pay cash, don't buy it.
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Re: I.E.A. states we have 9 trillion barrels left

Postby rangerone314 » Tue 16 Feb 2010, 15:56:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', '
')I eagerly await my $40,000 Volt. Now if I can just find a way to borrow that much money :P


This is PO +5, according to most Doomers, you should be trying to get out of debt, not into it.

If you can't afford to pay cash, don't buy it.

Exactly...

I suspect I am not the only person who cannot afford the cars that are going to be the "solution" to oil never getting to 90 million/bbl.

The Temple of Doom spiked ceiling of peak oil is descending slowly. If the "recovery" gets any traction, it should be interesting to see it smack into it like a June bug and decline again.
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Re: I.E.A. states we have 9 trillion barrels left

Postby JustaGirl » Tue 16 Feb 2010, 16:56:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he total long-term potentially recoverable oil-resource base, including extra-heavy oil, oil sands and oil shales (another largely undeveloped, though costly resource), is estimated at around 6.5 trillion barrels.


This seems rather timely. I was reading a comment by Mr Rockman last night over at the oil drum. He said something along the lines of... given enough funding, oil shale in the good old US of A could produce 10 mbpd! 8O

Of course, could is a lot different than will and then there is also the water issue. I also see Obama is funding 2 new nuke plants in the US, not something I ever expected to read during his administration.

I don't doubt we have another century or so of non-conventional/heavy oil, except it will be at 1/2 the production rate we have now. :cry: JMG's "Long Distant" seems the most fathomable to me.
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Re: I.E.A. states we have 9 trillion barrels left

Postby shortonsense » Tue 16 Feb 2010, 20:30:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '
')If you can't afford to pay cash, don't buy it.

Exactly...

I suspect I am not the only person who cannot afford the cars that are going to be the "solution" to oil never getting to 90 million/bbl.


Maybe. But today, puttering out of the parking lot, I happen to notice a Tesla parked in it, appropriately far apart from regular cars. Absolutely beautiful car. And it wasn't Dicaprio or Clooney driving it.

The future...she be a rolling...and she don't need no gasoline.

It might be expensive now, but it won't be expensive forever. Look at..say...flat panel TV's. Certainly I remember what my first one cost, and yesterday, as I prowled the isles of Walmart, I was more than a little surprised at prices. Cars which are built from the same basic components as say...other electronics and my lithium powered hand drill.....lets start a thread on how long before the first 1000 customers are driving the future...the first 10,000, the first million?

The future...she be a rolling..and she don't need no gasoline. :-D :-D
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Re: I.E.A. states we have 9 trillion barrels left

Postby anador » Wed 17 Feb 2010, 01:57:01

Maybe on Triton
@#$% highways
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Re: I.E.A. states we have 9 trillion barrels left

Postby rangerone314 » Wed 17 Feb 2010, 13:33:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '
')If you can't afford to pay cash, don't buy it.

Exactly...

I suspect I am not the only person who cannot afford the cars that are going to be the "solution" to oil never getting to 90 million/bbl.


Maybe. But today, puttering out of the parking lot, I happen to notice a Tesla parked in it, appropriately far apart from regular cars. Absolutely beautiful car. And it wasn't Dicaprio or Clooney driving it.

The future...she be a rolling...and she don't need no gasoline.

It might be expensive now, but it won't be expensive forever. Look at..say...flat panel TV's. Certainly I remember what my first one cost, and yesterday, as I prowled the isles of Walmart, I was more than a little surprised at prices. Cars which are built from the same basic components as say...other electronics and my lithium powered hand drill.....lets start a thread on how long before the first 1000 customers are driving the future...the first 10,000, the first million?

The future...she be a rolling..and she don't need no gasoline. :-D :-D

And what year will there be a million electric vehicles on American roads? (and out of what, 200 million)? Pick a year...
An ideology is by definition not a search for TRUTH-but a search for PROOF that its point of view is right

Equals barter and negotiate-people with power just take

You cant defend freedom by eliminating it-unknown

Our elected reps should wear sponsor patches on their suits so we know who they represent-like Nascar-Roy
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Re: I.E.A. states we have 9 trillion barrels left

Postby TonyPrep » Wed 17 Feb 2010, 14:19:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', 'G')ood thing I specialize in science and critical thinking
Oh boy.

Shakes head in disbelief.
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Re: I.E.A. states we have 9 trillion barrels left

Postby TonyPrep » Wed 17 Feb 2010, 14:21:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', 'C')ertainly when I started preparing for a post peak world after the 1979 peak oil I wouldn't have listened to anyone who tried to dissuade me from trajectory of preparation.
Yup, that about sums you up.
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Re: I.E.A. states we have 9 trillion barrels left

Postby TonyPrep » Wed 17 Feb 2010, 14:24:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('energyhoggin', 'a')rticle from the international energy association:

"Adding coal-to-liquids and gas-to-liquids increases this potential to about 9 trillion barrels. "
And yet, country after country goes into decline and, globally, producers are struggling to get above the highs of 2008. When will these people realise that potential totals are not the issue.
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Re: I.E.A. states we have 9 trillion barrels left

Postby shortonsense » Wed 17 Feb 2010, 15:20:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', '
')And what year will there be a million electric vehicles on American roads? (and out of what, 200 million)? Pick a year...


Thats my question. And it might not be valid...who says its EV's which will again reclaim the roads of America, as they did once so long ago?

What if, for example, we decided to roof most major roads in suburbia and run alcohol powered scooters?

It took toyota what, 9 years to go from no hybrids to 1,000,000 sold in the US?

So about a decade for a mostly new concept to go from 0 to 1,000,000.

If EV's take off, that seems like a reasonable time span, barring something even better bumping them off of course.
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Re: I.E.A. states we have 9 trillion barrels left

Postby rangerone314 » Thu 18 Feb 2010, 11:47:32

When will 50% of the 200+ million vehicles on US roads be hybrids or electric?

Also, when will most of the cars that are going to be sold in China and India (some for like $2,000 now) be electric?
An ideology is by definition not a search for TRUTH-but a search for PROOF that its point of view is right

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Re: I.E.A. states we have 9 trillion barrels left

Postby rangerone314 » Thu 18 Feb 2010, 13:10:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', ' ')roof roads
So let's play engineer and drag out the napkin. :P Does $100 sq. ft. foot sound right for an steel beam engineered tunnel?

There are 41,000 miles of county roads in PA. A two lane county road is (with breakdown lane, curbs, drains, right of way, etc. ) ~80 ft. That roof would cost 41,000*5280*80*100=$1.7 trillion

PA townships and municipalities control 67,000 miles of road in PA. A two-lane town road is about -50ft. Those roofs will cost 51,376**5280*50*100=$1.8 trillion

Or do we need to spend $1000 sq. ft. foot? Do we need to roof the scooters? How many ICE's do we need to crush?

Awwww... no need to spoil the fun with FACTS!!!!
An ideology is by definition not a search for TRUTH-but a search for PROOF that its point of view is right

Equals barter and negotiate-people with power just take

You cant defend freedom by eliminating it-unknown

Our elected reps should wear sponsor patches on their suits so we know who they represent-like Nascar-Roy
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Re: I.E.A. states we have 9 trillion barrels left

Postby shortonsense » Thu 18 Feb 2010, 15:34:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', 'G')ood thing I specialize in science and critical thinking
Oh boy.

Shakes head in disbelief.


Don't worry Tony. My days of managing big projects are over, now I just instruct children in how to think for themselves. :-D
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Re: I.E.A. states we have 9 trillion barrels left

Postby shortonsense » Thu 18 Feb 2010, 15:39:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', 'W')hen will 50% of the 200+ million vehicles on US roads be hybrids or electric?


Don't know. Does it matter? Certainly I have hopes of being an early adopter, but I can't speak for the other 200+ car owners in America.

My guess is the rate of adaption will depend on costs of things like the cars themselves, the fuel for them and the other types of cars, subsidies, availability and popularity, etc etc.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', '
')Also, when will most of the cars that are going to be sold in China and India (some for like $2,000 now) be electric?


My guess is the Chinese and Indians will make the same calculation I mentioned above, and the answer will be the rate at which the things are sold through time.
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Re: I.E.A. states we have 9 trillion barrels left

Postby shortonsense » Thu 18 Feb 2010, 15:45:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', ' ')roof roads
So let's play engineer and drag out the napkin. :P Does $100 sq. ft. foot sound right for an steel beam engineered tunnel?


I don't know...certainly I won't take your word for the time of day let alone something more difficult like this number, your credibility in anything factual being beyond suspect and well off into "make it up as you go" land.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')
There are 41,000 miles of county roads in PA. A two lane county road is (with breakdown lane, curbs, drains, right of way, etc. ) ~80 ft. That roof would cost 41,000*5280*80*100=$1.7 trillion


Assuming your math is correct, which I won't, I certainly would not assume that all county roads in Pennsylvania need this particular treatment, particularly when the density of suburbia would make any number much more palatable, and satisfy a much higher percentage of people per unit area, which also means it would effect a higher number of travelers per unit of covered roadway as well.

And any answer someone who can do math would achieve would undoubtedly have to be matched against fuel savings and other benefits like road wear and tear ( now that the roads are covered, the markings for example won't fade as fast ), winter maintenance just to keep them clear, etc etc.
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