[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', 'W')hat if the company invested 3 barrel equivalents of natural gas energy to get 2 barrels of oil out? They could make money.

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', 'W')hat if the company invested 3 barrel equivalents of natural gas energy to get 2 barrels of oil out? They could make money.

[SeaGypsy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'S')o, in some cases, it makes sense, but for society, generally, to put more energy into producing the energy it consumes, is not wise and not sustainable.

[Graeme]

What Peak Oil?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')'ve been going through the International Energy Agency's new forecast for medium-term oil and natural gas markets, issued yesterday. In contrast to the IEA's warnings of last summer concerning an imminent oil supply crunch, the agency now sees ample supplies to accommodate the level of demand growth it anticipates for the next five years. Yet while this scenario does not envision a peak in global oil supplies before 2015, its components offer ample cause for concern about the growing market power of OPEC and the risk of geopolitical disruptions. It also signals the growing importance of non-traditional sources of liquid fuels, including natural gas liquids (NGLs) and biofuels, which are included in the IEA's oil supply & demand balance.

The headline features of the IEA's oil forecast include continued growth in global oil capacity from 91 million barrels per day (MBD) in 2009 to 96.5 MBD in 2015. This is driven by the growth of OPEC's capacity, the NGL output of a global natural gas expansion that the US shale gas boom has accelerated, and increased production of ethanol and other biofuels. IEA sees this combination as more than sufficient to counteract a roughly 3.5% annual decline in the output of existing oil fields, including a peak and net decline in non-OPEC production within the next year or two. The latter won't surprise anyone who's been following the Peak Oil issue, but it's all the more worrying when you consider that it doesn't include the impact of project delays owing to the on-again, off-again US deepwater drilling moratorium, which the administration seems determined to switch back on.

[efarmer]

The Peak Oil theory has seen subscribers set the due date for doom time and time again or defend that when the petroleum age is graphed against the long time line of human history what exact shape of a spike it will create. (a bell curve blip, an asymmetric thing with wavy top blip, etc.)
It is going to be a blip, of some shape or another and the shape is important for us because we
are drawing some portion of the very top in the space of a human lifetime.

They are good projectors, supply and demand always meet regardless of if they do 5 years or 30.
They just pack unconventional petroleum, renewables, natural gas conversions, etc. on top of the
conventional oil in order to make the projection work, IMHO.

The IEA has to have a geopolitical, technological, and economical perfect game for 5 years
to make this work, having said that, it also suggests that we work at matching the scope and
arrival of dire consequences to match an undulating plateau than to match the swift descent
implied by the simple Hubbert bell curve.

In the grand scheme of things, Hubbert said it was a short spiky thing rather than a long and low slung thing, and I suppose those of us who get to see the summit can add to the knowledge by chiming in:

"Yeah and it has a rippling, bumpy top on it to where you think each dip is the big one until it is."

[meemoe_uk]

Has this been covered on this forum already? where?

http://omrpublic.iea.org/currentissues/full.pdf
page 57
87.3mpd average for year
88.2mpd average for 4th quarter

And looking at the analysis, it would have still set them without the inclusion of NGLs and biofuels.
Another year, another fail for the 'peakoil is now' gang.

But, this doesn't mean anything to a peaker.
Don't wobble in your beliefs about panic and hype about an imminent oil shortage crisis.
Let JD explain
Now you can have all the fun of hype and scare you had last year ( and year before that, and the decades before that..etc) all over again.

Because now.....
PEAK OIL WAS IN 2010!!!!
And this isn't like all the other times we think peak has happened. This time we really know for sure. There is absolutely no way conventional supply can top 2010. And this is time, it's not like dozens of other years that there's been absolutely no way that supply can go up. Oh no, THIS...IS...IT!!!

Have fun, like this lot...

yeah right, lol

[vision-master]

All time high is a good thing?

This means demand is still increasing.

What happens when demand overtakes supply?

[Pops]

Yea, the avg price looks like it was higher than all but '08 too (aside from the Iranian peak that is), funny how that worked out.

I guess it's just not gonna sink in that peak oil is about the end of cheap energy.

Shrug.

[copious.abundance]

But . . . but . . . but . . . I thought we were supposed to be past peak???

I have just one thing to say: AHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', 'W')hat happens when demand overtakes supply?

[eXpat]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('meemoe_uk', '
')Another year, another fail for the 'peakoil is now' gang.

But, this doesn't mean anything to a peaker.
Don't wobble in your beliefs about panic and hype about an imminent oil shortage crisis.

[sparky]

.
spoting the peak is good fun and porndoomsters have a nose for rubbing things into
that doesn't invalidate the basic premice of maximum extraction point being imminent
with dire consequences for pretty much everybody

[TonyPrep]

As I understand it, 2005 is still, just, the year of highest crude oil production. The 2010 number is about all liquids which includes stuff like biofuels which were produced from almost an equivalent amount of real oil, so it's double counting really.

According to the latest EIA short term energy outlook, the last 7 months of last year saw global stock draws - i.e. production wasn't enough to keep up with demand during that time, which was the back end of a recession for crying out loud. The STEO has last month showing a stock build but then it's initial estimate for many of the now stock draw months was a stock draw.

With all this and the price per barrel of most grades being over $100, I think OilFinder's celebrations are rather odd.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'W')ith all this and the price per barrel of most grades being over $100, I think OilFinder's celebrations are rather odd.

[Xenophobe]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('meemoe_uk', 'H')as this been covered on this forum already? where?

http://omrpublic.iea.org/currentissues/full.pdf
page 57
87.3mpd average for year
88.2mpd average for 4th quarter

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '
')Cheering for whatever political party/sports team/favorite pundit/or in this case, BAU, outweighs events or outcomes in the real world.

It is strange.

[meemoe_uk]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')s I understand it, 2005 is still, just, the year of highest crude oil production. The 2010 number is about all liquids which includes stuff like biofuels which were produced from almost an equivalent amount of real oil, so it's double counting really.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('meemoe_uk', 'O')il is extremely cheap at $100.

[TonyPrep]

meemoe-uk,

The EIA publishes estimates for crude and lease condensate, no need to try and back-calculate it yourself. Unfortunately, they are always several months behind, so we won't know their full 2010 estimate until next month, I think. However, the 10 month average for 2010 is still behind the 2008 average, which is behind the 2005 average of daily production. The 2005 figure is 73.718 million barrels per day.

They have changed their format for delivering this information, and haven't yet posted February's update, which is a bit lax of them.

Actually, a couple of months ago, I expected the 2010 average to just pip the 2005 average but now I'm not so sure. However, at least the crude oil figure doesn't double count anything.

[Adelaidewonderer]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '2')005 : total supply avg = 84.1mbpd of which 4.74mbpd was NGL leaving 79.36mbpd conventional crude
2010 : total supply avg = 87.3mbpd of which 7.10mbpd was NGL+bio leaving 80.20mbpd conventional crude

[meemoe_uk]

>The EIA publishes estimates for crude and lease condensate, no need to try and back-calculate it yourself.
Well it was the IEA ( International Energy Agency ) figures I was
using, not the EIA ( Energy Information Administration ) figures.

Maybe when the EIA release a report we can have another thread, " EIA : world sets all time high oil supply record in 2010 ".
They would make a nice pair of threads at the top of this forum board. i.e. it would send a good hard message out to the 'peak oil crisis is now' gang. Don't you think?

>tell me why i am paying 100% more for my oil
Because the industry is in a state of upheaval as the anglo american majors move into the middle east. This upheaval has been going on since 2001, it is nearly over. I estimate by 2014-15 things will settle down and the price of oil will drop substancially and stay down.