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THE International Energy Agency (IEA) Thread pt 3 (merged)

Discuss research and forecasts regarding hydrocarbon depletion.
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Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010

Postby copious.abundance » Fri 18 Feb 2011, 22:59:51

Here - I can find . . . one nation . . . which all by itself . . . will probably double your figure.

Click here

I dunno, but I've got a sneaking suspicion your model didn't include that! Or anything remotely close to that!
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010

Postby WebHubbleTelescope » Fri 18 Feb 2011, 23:02:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'B')ut actually that's OK with me - I'll be sure to bookmark this thread and visit it periodically in the future. This forum is so much fun!


Go ahead. The folks at EIA somehow thought it important to display data for conventional crude only. This should still be available for years to come so you can see how well the prediction comes to be.

Sure, you will have another prediction for oil sands and other areas but that is another matter. You see, engineering analysis is as much a matter of separation of concerns and divide-and-conquer strategies as anything else. I can't help the fact that you cannot detect the difference between various grades of fossil fuel and their differing potential for EROEI. I am making the claims for crude and won't be cowed by the mindless bureaucrats and pseudo-cornucopians that want to play the shifting baseline trick. Believe me, engineers know that strategy all too well, as they face that from Dilbert-style management types every single day.
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Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010

Postby copious.abundance » Fri 18 Feb 2011, 23:22:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('WebHubbleTelescope', 'G')o ahead. The folks at EIA somehow thought it important to display data for conventional crude only.

But you see . . . they don't. It says, "Production of Crude Oil including Lease Condensate." There is no sub-category for bitumen, shale oils, or anything else. Canada's latest figure says 3,360.42 thousand barrels per day. Period. If you know of some other spot on the EIA website where they list oil sands out separately, I'd be happy to see it. But making things even more complicated . . . there is also no sub-category for "oil and condensate produced from tight shales" (e.g. the Bakken, Eagle Ford, etc.). Everything from North Dakota and the area around San Antonio gets lumped in with everything else, and there's no way you're going to separate them. Heck, in many cases you can't even make a clear distinction between conventional and unconventional reservoirs, so how could they possibly separate them in their statistics? And why should they? The oil from these formations is typically 30-50 degree sweet crude, so statistically you wouldn't be able to distinguish it from some random conventional field in east Texas anyway.

So as I said, if you insist on comparing your model to EIA numbers, you're doomed to be wrong. The only way you can be right is if you decide to include these unconventional deposits in your discovery model.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010

Postby WebHubbleTelescope » Fri 18 Feb 2011, 23:38:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'H')ere - I can find . . . one nation . . . which all by itself . . . will probably double your figure.

Click here

I dunno, but I've got a sneaking suspicion your model didn't include that! Or anything remotely close to that!


Is this the same outfit that was pushing out all the commercials to convince people to invest in the Iraqi dinar a few years ago?
http://buyandselliraqidinar.blogspot.com/2007/06/basrah-contains-huge-oil-wealth.html
http://www.investorsiraq.com/showthread.php?44079-Basrah-contains-huge-oil-wealth-%28Iraq-Directory%29
just curious
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Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010

Postby Xenophobe » Fri 18 Feb 2011, 23:50:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('WebHubbleTelescope', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', 'T')he peer review your work went through must have missed that little detail.


Peer review comments don't have to be heeded.


Well, that is true. If someone writes down 2+2=5, and peer review notices, the author doesn't have to do bubcuss. Defeats the point of peer review though, don't you think?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Web', '
')If they are preposterous, they can be dismissed.


Sure...so.....the volume is a geologically based number....what geologic reviewer did you find to go over your volume assumptions and decide that all the other peer reviewed and counted oil suddenly....doesn't exist?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Web', '
')So you apparently want to believe that the URR/OOIP will increase greatly from the historical average of 0.35 or so. What does that give, 2800/0.35 = 8000 billion, right?


What experience do you have with science, to mistaken think that what matters is what I believe? Do you believe that 8T is the world endowment? Saleri thinks you are a bit low. Do you honestly think he wrote down a number he BELIEVES, versus just counting up all the oil the way others (Meyer and Schenk) did it?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Web', '
')My book is about the subject of entropy as much as anything else.


Then you should have named it CoEntropendum or some such, rather than pretending it has anything to do with oil and gas and geologic stuff.
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Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010

Postby copious.abundance » Fri 18 Feb 2011, 23:53:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('WebHubbleTelescope', 'I')s this the same outfit that was pushing out all the commercials to convince people to invest in the Iraqi dinar a few years ago?
http://buyandselliraqidinar.blogspot.com/2007/06/basrah-contains-huge-oil-wealth.html
http://www.investorsiraq.com/showthread.php?44079-Basrah-contains-huge-oil-wealth-%28Iraq-Directory%29
just curious

Nope, sorry
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')etroleum geologists have delineated and mapped more than 526 prospects, drilling 131 prospects to discover 73 major fields. Some 239 undrilled prospects have a high degree of certainty. Thirty fields have been partially developed and 12 fields are actually onstream.

So, as of 2003, of 73 major discovered fields, only 30 have ever been developed to any extent, and only 12 are actually onstream. Then there's another 58 fields that have been drilled (no info on whether they're successes or not). But there's another 526 prospects - 239 of which they're pretty darn sure have oil in them!

Maybe you could get a list of known Iraqi oil fields, and use your dispersive discovery model to extrapolate the data from those over the 250-500 or so undrilled prospects! :lol:
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010

Postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 19 Feb 2011, 00:45:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '
')"The economy" will be fine. Regular folks and especially poor folks will be screwed. But they should just get a better job and stop being poor. :|


Are there no prisons? Are there no workhouses?


Yeah, that's reasonable. :roll:

Let's let the POSSIBILITY that just MAYBE if you don't like the high cost of gasoline at some point, that doing things like:

Riding a bike, driving an economy car, taking the bus, carpooling, working from home, cutting back on nonessentials (just to name a handful off the top of my head)...

is TOTALLY unreasonable. Let's sarcastically equate adapting to being forced into prison! That will fix it! That will also help inspire reasoned and productive discussion!

MOS, in case you haven't noticed, CNBC vs. Fox News level hyperbole and obfuscation doesn't solve anything.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010

Postby WebHubbleTelescope » Sat 19 Feb 2011, 01:17:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'S')o as I said, if you insist on comparing your model to EIA numbers, you're doomed to be wrong. The only way you can be right is if you decide to include these unconventional deposits in your discovery model.


You still haven't read the book, or you have and are attempting some jiu-jitsu to blow some trivial aspects out of proportion. If you understand the main point I have tried to drive home, we need to consider dispersion and disorder as a fact of nature. The oil sands are a huge dispersive factor, perhaps large in volume but fractionally small in extractable rate. This in fact is a separate dispersed lobe and thus we can mathematically separate that effect out, or to first-order just ignore it. It is really a separate category to consider (which unfortunately you have serious problems with) .

Yet when we place it in that context, it actually strengthens the argument. So take away a percent of the worldwide production as miscategorized unconventional crude, one has even less of the conventional crude to account for. I don't make a big deal about this because I tend to the conservative anyways (no use piling on to gain a percentage difference).

Let me put it another way. Conventional crude extraction is around 4% proportional draw-down per year from reserves. If say that the tar sands contain 3 trillion barrels and the production is over 1 million barrels a day, then the proportional draw-down is around 0.01% per year. That is a factor of 400x difference in draw-down percentage. In engineering mathematics parlance, we have an example of a stiff equation here, due to widely dispersed rates. The slow rate uptake won't make a whit of difference in changing the overall profile. It essentially gets absorbed as a baseline offset.

Or we can take the 3 trillion barrel oil sands reserve and divide it by 400 and get an "equivalent discovery barrels" quantity of around 10 billion barrels that remains as a constant background with respect to conventional crude. We can draw-down at a 4% rate from this amount for a long time as it is rate-limited for the foreseeable future. If peak oil is actually about the flow rate, then this is a perfectly acceptable approximation. I figure this is quite obvious because I spend quite a bit of time in the book describing dispersed growth rates.

So I could make all these minor adjustments and the curves will still look pretty much the way I described them out to 2050.

It is so nice to have good models like dispersive discovery and the oil shock model to allow us to logically reason about oil production. You will just have to thank me in a few years.
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Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010

Postby Xenophobe » Sat 19 Feb 2011, 01:25:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('WebHubbleTelescope', '
')So I could make all these minor adjustments and the curves will still look pretty much the way I described them out to 2050.


Cool. So lets see the residuals on your dispersive model contemporaneous to when it predicted peak....2005 was it? Residuals from then through the most recent production information Stuart and Oily have rounded up should be sufficient to show your models value over at least a short time period. If I recall correctly Stuart asked for those residuals quite some time ago...didn't see them in the Codumbdrum though.....why not? Certainly his peer "opinion" (since you haven't claimed to have submitted this thing to review anywhere) should have counted as something not so easily dismissed? Unless you want to claim that residuals aren't used in engineering math to test a models validity any more than adding up actual oil accumulations is used in the geosciences? Ignoring all evidence to the the contrary already provided of course.
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Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010

Postby WebHubbleTelescope » Sat 19 Feb 2011, 01:44:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', 'S')o lets see the residuals on your dispersive model contemporaneous to when it predicted peak....2005 was it?

Define exactly what you want to see. I am not here to play a game of 20 questions.
Who are Stuart and Oily?

Actually, if you see something you don't like, you can do the analysis yourself. Knock yourself out. If you complain about not having the data immediately at your disposal, learn how to do screen capture or whatever.

BTW, the standard checks of models that characterize disorder include techniques such as log-likelihood, relative entropy (aka Kullback–Leibler divergence), or AIC and BIC. Good luck and have fun!
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Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010

Postby WebHubbleTelescope » Sat 19 Feb 2011, 02:01:51

Touched some nerves, detecting some jealousy...

Just for the record, my background is a PhD in EE and I have a significant background in semiconductor physics. I have enough peer-reviewed papers out there to know what is involved. I took a calculated chance in putting this treatise out for public perusal because I know scientific breakthroughs when I see them. The fact that I am doing this on my own time is a factor on deciding to go with this strategy.

I will let you in on a secret. The treasure trove of research known as http://arxiv.org is the best thing since sliced bread! Yet no one realizes that a significant fraction of those papers have not gone through peer review. Some say that the art of innovative engineering is knowing how to distill complicated physics and math into simpler concepts. It doesn't take long to find great nuggets of wisdom. You just have to open your eyes.
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Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010

Postby Xenophobe » Sat 19 Feb 2011, 02:08:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('WebHubbleTelescope', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', 'S')o lets see the residuals on your dispersive model contemporaneous to when it predicted peak....2005 was it?

Define exactly what you want to see. I am not here to play a game of 20 questions.
Who are Stuart and Oily?


Stuart from TOD. And Oily is the guy you are having a conversation with right here.

You have a model line on the peak oil graph at Wiki. It shows a maxima in approximately 2005, and has been declining since. I would like to see the residuals on that model, difference between model and actual. Not any new one where you arbitrarily change input parameters to match trendology as it happens, but that past projection against what actually happened. Stuart asked you for the same things when you were blathering on about models, must be 4 or 6 years ago now over at TOD.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Web', '
')Actually, if you see something you don't like, you can do the analysis yourself.


Analysis? You hid some analysis in all the philosophy stuff? Do you have a REVIEW of this analysis we can look at? By like, someone who knows something about the topic you thought you were writing about?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Web', '
')BTW, the standard checks of models that characterize disorder include techniques such as log-likelihood, relative entropy (aka Kullback–Leibler divergence), or AIC and BIC. Good luck and have fun!


I didn't ask a question I don't already know the answer to. I would change the subject and try and distract the lurking audience from something as simple as a near laymen capable residual calculation as well. Ruttledge used a pretty simple version on some of his cumulative forecasts on world oil production, go ask him how to do them if you aren't familiar with something so simple.
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Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010

Postby WebHubbleTelescope » Sat 19 Feb 2011, 03:06:02

Oh, that Stuart. I thought I was the one that chased him away from TOD. He seems to be a heuristics kind of guy, good with the pretty background on his charts and that's about it.

The diagram on that chart was before I had a discovery model. I was just using ASPO discovery data which didn't extrapolate for potential reserve growth via backdating and future discoveries. This research of mine has all been very methodical and in open view of everyone that followed TOD and here on peakoil.com for a while. I have no control of what people do with any work I have in progress.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', 'A')nalysis? You hid some analysis in all the philosophy stuff? Do you have a REVIEW of this analysis we can look at? By like, someone who knows something about the topic you thought you were writing about?

I gotta love your attitude ... so feisty. Go ahead and write a review, you can be the first. You evidently seem to think my book carries some weight, otherwise you wouldn't be screaming for peer review. "No fair, he is subverting the scientific process, Waaah!"

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'R')uttledge used a pretty simple version on some of his cumulative forecasts on world oil production, go ask him how to do them if you aren't familiar with something so simple.

Look at it with your own eyes. The oil shock model has a tunable parameter for extraction rate. I can narrow down the residuals to nothing if I so desire. So the residuals would have to be done against an extraction rate over the years and I have not seen anyone that has documented an average extraction rate year after year. The reason I mentioned the other entropy measures is that those are used to compare various models against each other. I don't see any other models to compare mine against. Pickings are kind of sparse, Hubbert Linearization doesn't cut it. Which brings it back to Stuart and his infatuation with heuristics. I am on the forefront here; all the geologists and petroleum types have really dropped the ball over the years when it comes to an analysis. Rutledge is a Physics guy and I am an EE semiconductor guy. I guess that's what it takes to make some progress in this field.
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Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010

Postby mididoctors » Sat 19 Feb 2011, 07:44:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('WebHubbleTelescope', '
')Look at it with your own eyes. The oil shock model has a tunable parameter for extraction rate. I can narrow down the residuals to nothing if I so desire. So the residuals would have to be done against an extraction rate over the years and I have not seen anyone that has documented an average extraction rate year after year. The reason I mentioned the other entropy measures is that those are used to compare various models against each other. I don't see any other models to compare mine against. Pickings are kind of sparse, Hubbert Linearization doesn't cut it. Which brings it back to Stuart and his infatuation with heuristics. I am on the forefront here; all the geologists and petroleum types have really dropped the ball over the years when it comes to an analysis. Rutledge is a Physics guy and I am an EE semiconductor guy. I guess that's what it takes to make some progress in this field.


By how much would the extraction rates of unconventional oil (sands perhaps shale oil etc) need to be increased by to seriously effect the "curve" in the next 30-50yrs?
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Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010

Postby Pops » Sat 19 Feb 2011, 09:06:31

Thanks for the time WHT, the idea of that tar sands as basically background noise the rest will play out against is a good insight.
I see you've met our current resident one-trick-cornies, not as good with the original thought as JD once was but they're all we can muster these days I guess.
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Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010

Postby Xenophobe » Sat 19 Feb 2011, 11:17:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '
')I see you've met our current resident one-trick-cornies, not as good with the original thought as JD once was but they're all we can muster these days I guess.
:-D


How can he have "met" anyone when even the comments offering him encouragement are perfunctorily erased?
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Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010

Postby WebHubbleTelescope » Sat 19 Feb 2011, 11:36:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mididoctors', 'B')y how much would the extraction rates of unconventional oil (sands perhaps shale oil etc) need to be increased by to seriously effect the "curve" in the next 30-50yrs?


Very good question and one that we can work out. Take a case that we need to make up for a missing 30 million barrels a day of globally produced oil due to depletion of conventional in the next 40 years. If the Canadian flow today is about 1 million barrel per day at about 0.01% proportional extraction rate then we need to up that by 30 times to 0.3%. This means that eventually we will get to an efficiency that is only around 10 times less than extracting from the average conventional crude reservoir.

So it is a matter of believing that the oil sands infrastructure can support a 30 times greater processing throughput. The proportional extraction rate is currently low at 0.01% for a reason. It requires natural gas and water as an input so everything has to scale with the effort. This isn't 30%, it is 30x which is a 3000% increase.

This is of course mitigated when and if we also do something similar with oil shale and Orinoco.

Which of the cornucopians on this message board is willing to prove that this will happen?
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Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010

Postby ian807 » Sat 19 Feb 2011, 11:39:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('WebHubbleTelescope', 'T')he treasure trove of research known as http://arxiv.org is the best thing since sliced bread!

Cool site. Thanks. Great resource for someone with an AI fetish.

As for the debate, I don't think the depletion curves matter in the way most people expect. If liquid hydrocarbon fuels get expensive enough, quickly enough, the supply chain that makes large-scale hydrocarbon power available will start break down due to high price and low hydrocarbon fuel availability. If it continues long enough, we get into a self-reinforcing feedback loop where insufficient supplies of petroleum start contributing to insufficient supplies of petroleum, and so on. It won't happen everywhere, all at once, but I'm pretty sure that when conventional oil supplies start to decline significantly, it's inevitable. 15 years, perhaps. 30 years, certainly.

After that, what's left is... what's left - that is, insufficient. We might stretch liquid hydrocarbon supplies for a while using other hydrocarbons sources like natural gas or coal and a smattering of other power sources, but it just won't be on the same scale. Conventional oil currently contributes about 160 exajoules of energy to civilization each year (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cubic_mile_of_oil). I just don't see how we make that up with unconventional hydrocarbons supplies and renewables under any realistic circumstances and in a time frame that matters.

Actually, I'm not even sure we need actual depletion, per se for this to happen. I think politics and war might do the job for us even while we have sufficient supply of conventional hydrocarbons.

The bottom line is that powerdown of some sort is inevitable, with all the pain that implies for many. Only the timing and specifics are in question.
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Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010

Postby Xenophobe » Sat 19 Feb 2011, 11:50:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('WebHubbleTelescope', '
')Which of the cornucopians on this message board is willing to prove that this will happen?


Why take the time to even discuss it when such posts are erased in the interests of making sure the groupthink is maintained?
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Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010

Postby WebHubbleTelescope » Sat 19 Feb 2011, 12:00:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '
')I see you've met our current resident one-trick-cornies, not as good with the original thought as JD once was but they're all we can muster these days I guess.
:-D


How can he have "met" anyone when even the comments offering him encouragement are perfunctorily erased?


I remember one time erasing non-spam comments from a posting at my blog site by someone that was irritating me which is orders of magnitude less than the number of comments that have been erased at TheOilDrum.com. I can't remember the context or who it was. I don't know whether comments are erased on PeakOil.com or not.

Lately I have noticed that heated technical arguments over some contentious issue eventually go into cries of "not playing fair". Over at ClimateAudit.org and RealClimate.org, the current argument is simply over the nature of peer review and who is abusing the peer review system. But science is really a full contact sport and if you can't defend yourself too bad. The underling message is that the real scientific truth will eventually emerge because it always does.
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