[Revi]

I think that we will be forced to give up a lot of cars here in the US, re-localize and take the bus a lot.

It will be a change, but the ones who will cry will be us baby boomers. I think the next generation already can see the change coming. We'll live in small houses close to our work, bike and walk or live on small farms and come in to town once or twice a week.

It will be a lot more like the way most other people in the world live.

There will be cell phones and computers to take our minds off of the fact that we can't just roam around in giant cars cruising the mall any more.

[dinopello]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'T')hat means that 8 or 9 billion people will be sharing the amount of oil we had back in the 60's.

It could be done, but it will mean a lot more people living on the edge, and a lot less energy intensive car suburbs around the world.

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KevO', 'w')hat does this mean EXACTLY in language I can tell Ma and Pa?

Does this mean demand destruction or that we have admission from the IEA of peak oil

RSVP somebody!

[Ferretlover]

Totally off topic, and, I apologise for that, but, at first, I thought the title was "IEA: We've peeked" and I thought, 'at what, the actual numbers and situation?'
Again, sorry!

[Newfie]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', '
')
Assuming the Uppsala figure is approximate, anyone else have a different take on this?

[Chuckmak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ferretlover', 'T')otally off topic, and, I apologise for that, but, at first, I thought the title was "IEA: We've peeked" and I thought, 'at what, the actual numbers and situation?'
Again, sorry!

[Tyler_JC]

They're talking about OECD countries. Population growth in OECD countries is rapidly leveling off, if not dropping, as in the case of Japan.

Why should we expect oil demand to rise significantly if the population isn't growing?

The IEA is assuming any growth in GDP and energy demand can be met with efficiency and conservation.

[dukey]

uk population is growing due to immigration

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dukey', 'u')k population is growing due to immigration

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '
')That's right. No native English people are having babies.

[cipi604]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'M')ore to the point, if the folks at Uppsala are right in their estimates (at it seems a reasonable estimate), I don't think 65 mbpd by 2030 means you'll have zombie biker gangs roaming the countryside pillaging homes. India may have a $2,000 car but I don't think someone buying a $2,000 car can afford $5/gal gasoline better than Americans.

Assuming the Uppsala figure is approximate, anyone else have a different take on this?

[JustaGirl]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '6')5 mbpd by 2030 means NO exports. And 65 is too optimistic.

[cipi604]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JustaGirl', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '6')5 mbpd by 2030 means NO exports. And 65 is too optimistic.

[Ferretlover]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cipi604', 'W')ithout oil energy, there is no agriculture in USA.

[Cloud9]

Yes and it was on a grand scale look at bonanza farms in the 19th century. Last weekend I went to the Fly Wheelers. This is a group of hobbyist that has built a small town that does not run on electricity.

http://www.floridaflywheelers.org/

[evilgenius]

2030? In pre-2010 world terms that is a long way off. Between now and then several things will have happened. Ghawar, for one, will have dropped off radically and will no longer be the world's number one field. West Africa should be running at about what the North Sea was, in terms of importance - not prod numbers. Iraq will be the most important country in terms of production.

I think, however, that it is wise to take into account that these things are only going to happen at the end of a predictable arc of events. The future is much more likely to go through a few iterations where, from our perspective, the events occurring are total chaos. No future is a dead lock from here, even if whatever happens is contained in the seeds of today.

Nonetheless, 65mbpd is probably optimistic. Maybe not too much, but in the camp of the optimists.

[EnergyUnlimited]

So I wonder when US will reinvent itself as a slave driven latyfundial empire (very much like it was before President Lincoln...), where most of the wealth is generated in a form of agricultural products?
At some point much of these agricultural products would be sold by landlords and also corporations, regardless of fact that large proportion of Americans is starving.

How likely such scenario might come true?

[Sys1]

This 65mpd prediction is BS. IEA has grab the idea of peak oil, they now need to get what is EROEI.
I bet we will be around 30mbpd at best (from Olduvai theory we are supposed to have 30% energy from now in 2030).
Put now in the equation wars, hurricanes, pipeline bombing and the impossibility from tanker to cross the sees and we'll have virtually NOTHING.

In 2030, the only vehicules we'll see on roads will be shoes.

How crazy it is to calmly speak about 2030 oil production while we should just shout to the still sheeples in the middle of a global economic collapse :
DIE OFF, WAR, PESTILENCE, FAMINE.

[Ferretlover]

Off topic posts deleted from this thread. Please stay on topic. Thank you.

[PeakOiler]

Time to bump this thread with the latest world oil supply graph from the IEA:



http://omrpublic.iea.org/

How long till supply goes over 87 mbd?