[KevO]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 'T')he Federal Government's Energy Information Administration (EIA) says global non-OPEC oil production will peak in 2011.

non-OPEC oil production to peak in 2011

At last!!! Now we're getting somewhere!

[GoghGoner]

The EIA did not say that non-OPEC supply peaked in this supplement. This report only goes out to 2011.

EIA supplement on non-OPEC supply 2010-2011

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')fter growing by 630,000 barrels per day (bbl/d) in 2009, EIA expects
non‐OPEC liquids supply growth of 420,000 bbl/d in 2010, followed by decline in
non‐OPEC liquids supply of 140,000 bbl/d in 2011 (the end of the current forecast
period). In contrast, EIA expects world liquids demand to grow by 2.55 million
bbl/d between 2009 and 2011. Based on past experience, the forecast slowdown
in non‐OPEC production growth in 2010 and the projected decline in 2011 could
have important implications for world oil markets.

[copious.abundance]

Well well well. Lookee what we have here. We were told less than a year ago that the credit crunch would kill oil projects and non-OPEC was past peak and about to decline precipitously.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')arclays Capital saw a potential drop of 1.5 million bpd, or 3 percent of non-OPEC supply, and a 70 percent price rise from current levels to $85/bbl in 2010. Deutsche Bank saw a 280,000 bpd decline this year.

[peripato]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'W')ell well well. Lookee what we have here. We were told less than a year ago that the credit crunch would kill oil projects and non-OPEC was past peak and about to decline precipitously.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')arclays Capital saw a potential drop of 1.5 million bpd, or 3 percent of non-OPEC supply, and a 70 percent price rise from current levels to $85/bbl in 2010. Deutsche Bank saw a 280,000 bpd decline this year.

[AirlinePilot]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'W')ell well well. Lookee what we have here. We were told less than a year ago that the credit crunch would kill oil projects and non-OPEC was past peak and about to decline precipitously.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')arclays Capital saw a potential drop of 1.5 million bpd, or 3 percent of non-OPEC supply, and a 70 percent price rise from current levels to $85/bbl in 2010. Deutsche Bank saw a 280,000 bpd decline this year.

[seahorse2]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GoghGoner', 'T')he EIA did not say that non-OPEC supply peaked in this supplement. This report only goes out to 2011.

EIA supplement on non-OPEC supply 2010-2011

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')fter growing by 630,000 barrels per day (bbl/d) in 2009, EIA expects
non‐OPEC liquids supply growth of 420,000 bbl/d in 2010, followed by decline in
non‐OPEC liquids supply of 140,000 bbl/d in 2011 (the end of the current forecast
period). In contrast, EIA expects world liquids demand to grow by 2.55 million
bbl/d between 2009 and 2011. Based on past experience, the forecast slowdown
in non‐OPEC production growth in 2010 and the projected decline in 2011 could
have important implications for world oil markets.

[TheDude]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', ' ')Funny, I see something different in that chart......

I call Bullshit on your post.....BLATANT attempt at manipulating data...

Look carefully at the chart AS IT WAS POSTED..not as OF manipulated it....I highlighted the part he chopped off

[AirlinePilot]

Pretty convenient using the old one when the new one has been staring him in the face for days....

[copious.abundance]

^
Ummm . . . before you accuse me of posting old data, you might want to actually look at the date I posted it:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')osted: Wed Feb 24, 2010

[copious.abundance]

A new non-OPEC record inches closer . . .

[copious.abundance]

Hmmm . . .

Hmmm . . .

BTW, Monte's first post in this thread:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'H')urdles ahead for growth in non-OPEC liquids output
This article will appear in the Nov. 8, 2004, edition of Oil & Gas Journal. I'm not a subscriber and couldn't access the entirre article, but this paragraph is quite clear.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')indings of a study by PFC Energy suggest that the world's ability to increase liquids production outside members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries could run into difficulties in the early part of the next decade unless there are significant shifts in oil recovery factors or improved results from exploration.

[copious.abundance]

I hope I don't need to find all the links to instances on this forum the past few years of people insisting, with absolute certaintly, that non-OPEC oil production had peaked in 2004, and was now embarked on a permanent decline. If I were to try to find all the posts of people proclaiming that, I think it would take hours.

So I was browsing through the EIA data today when I noticed . . . *drum roll, trumpets blaring* . . . ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, we have a new non-OPEC annual crude oil production record!

Deleted

LINK TO EIA TABLE

Subtract OPEC from from world production and you get non-OPEC. Here are the numbers. Note that this is crude and condensate, not just all-liquids.

2003: 41,449,817 bpd
2004: 42,063,016
2005: 41,841,560
2006: 41,836,783
2007: 41,775,367
2008: 41,172,537
2009: 41,664,963
2010: 42,418,079

Deleted

[seahorse3]

Here's a post from another forum concerning monthly oil production statistics I hope people can address as to its accuracy.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he JODI Data -- Now a Confused Muddle
Given our last adventure in which the Joint Organizations Data Initiative proclaimed two of its January data sets complete while forgetting to include 3 countries in them, I am becoming a bit more cautious in double checking the information they supply. Hence, the addition of January data for Eurostat, UNSD and IEA/OECD countries prompted me to look at the aggregate data for December of 2010.

Curiously, the results led me to wonder if some countries are being double counted in the data, or... Well, I'm not really sure what they're doing, really.

Here's the data for December by group.

22,605,000 APEC
102,000 Eurostat
14,332,000 IEA/OECD
6,366,000 OLADE
30,342,000 OPEC
2,690,000 UNSD

76,437,000 Total of above figures

Meanwhile, the official total is...
63,156,000 JODI Total All Submissions

Are they double-counting some countries?
Yes, I know national oil reserves and production tend to be the ultimate "fudged" numbers, but whether or not a set of statistics are accurate or merely reassuring falsehoods, I would at least like the figures to add up.

Meanwhile, Mexico's numbers are now on the JODI charts for January, as are Argentina and Ecuador's. The other producers, who I could have sworn were on here before (excepting Bolivia and Peru), all seem to be gone.

And meanwhile, despite this fundamental reshuffling of the OLADE statistics, its official output still sits at 3,160,000 barrels-per-day -- a number I previously assumed resulted from the omission of Mexico and Bolivia. Now... I don't know what to think.

My impression remains that we have suffered some very significant production drops in the last couple of months, and not all of it can be papered over or attributed to reluctant record keepers. Middle Eastern revolutions, obviously, are going to make keeping all this under wraps particularly hard, no matter how rapidly the official data shifts beneath our feet.

I hope everyone involved in this issue -- that is to say, everyone on Earth -- has a much more substantial plan than simply rewriting numbers indefinitely. Because that will not persist for much longer.

"Paper barrels" do not burn.

[WhatDoWeDoNow]

So you are laughing because non-OPEC oil production has increased by 1% in 6 years at the same time that the price of oil has gone up 400 % and demand for oil has gone up [insert number] % and you think this is proof that Peak Oil is a false concept???

The most you can say is that some Peaker Oilers have been a little bit too pesimistic and called "Peak" a little bit too soon.

But you really came on here to gloat and feel smug...

:shrug: whatever floats your boat.

[Lore]

The numbers illustrate a case of peddling faster and getting nowhere.

[dolanbaker]

More like walking up the down escallator, you have to walk fast just to stay in the same place and the escallator is slowly gaining speed!

[kiwichick]

+1 db

[Cloud9]

As the price goes up, a new base line is reached where more marginal wells are brought on line. This may for a short time create a surge in production obscuring the fact that we are in a decline.