[babystrangeloop]

The "The OPEC/non-OPEC crossover event" on dieoff.org

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]THE PEAK OF WORLD OIL PRODUCTION AND THE ROAD TO THE OLDUVAI GORGE
Richard C. Duncan, Ph.D. / November 13, 2000


Notes: (1) World oil production is forecast to peak in 2006. (2) The OPEC/non-OPEC crossover event occurs in 2008. (3) The OPEC nations' rate of oil production from 1985 to 1999 increased by 9.33 times that of the non-OPEC nations.

Figure 1 shows the historic world oil production data from 1960 to 1999 and our forecasts from 2000 to 2040. Note that the overall growth rate of oil production slowed from 1960 to 1999 (curve 1). In detail: The average rate of growth from 1960 to 1973 was a whopping 6.65 %/year. Next, from 1973 to 1979 growth slowed to 1.49 %/year. Then, from 1979 to 1999, it slowed yet further to a glacial 0.75 %/year. Moving beyond the historic period, Forecast #5 predicts that world oil production will reach its all-time peak in 2006. Then from its peak in 2006 to year 2040 world oil production will fall by 58.8 % — an average decline of 2.45 %/year during these 34 years.

The OPEC/non-OPEC crossover event is predicted to occur in 2008 (Figure 1, curves 2 &3). This event will divide the world into two camps: one with surplus oil, the other with none. Forecast #5 presents the following scenario. (1) Beginning in 2008 the 11 OPEC nations will produce more than 50% of the world's oil. (2) Thereafter OPEC will control nearly 100% of the world’s oil exports. (3) BP Amoco (2000) puts OPEC's "proved reserves" at 77.6% of the world total. (4) OPEC production from 1985 to 1999 grew at a strong average rate of 3.46 %/year. In contrast, non-OPEC production grew at sluggish 0.37 %/year during this same 14-year period. ...

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 'N')o big surprises here, but this is another example that peak oil is becoming more mainstream.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he supermajors are finding it harder and harder to pry away the remaining megaprojects from state-run oil companies. [/url]

[ian807]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'L')uckily the US still has a lot of FFs and that's a good thing because I wouldn't be surprised to see a "political" peak in available exports before a geologic peak.

[dsula]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ian807', ' ')countries like Russia, Venezuela, Iran, et. al. simply take their supplies off the world market and allocate it exclusively for domestic consumption.
.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dsula', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ian807', ' ')countries like Russia, Venezuela, Iran, et. al. simply take their supplies off the world market and allocate it exclusively for domestic consumption.
.

[ian807]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dsula', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ian807', ' ')countries like Russia, Venezuela, Iran, et. al. simply take their supplies off the world market and allocate it exclusively for domestic consumption.
.

[dorlomin]

In peace time the millitary is unlikely to be all that big a consumer in most countries. Even the US is only something like 400 000 barrels a day. The days of the British Empire needing 15 35 000 tonne battle ships\ battle cruisers are gone. As are the days of 400 ship navies for all but the US.

Iraq was invaded and occupied by 5 divisions, in WWII era a similar operation would have likely been 40-50 divisions (the WWII occupation is not a good analogy as it was a desert kingdom with a few militia on camels then). Unless you are mounting a global expiditionary force, millitary fuel consumption is likely to be pretty low.

[babystrangeloop]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dsula', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ian807', ' ')countries like Russia, Venezuela, Iran, et. al. simply take their supplies off the world market and allocate it exclusively for domestic consumption.